No stacked deck here, as you will rarely find a graded race with as many evenly-matched horses as Saturday’s Iron Deck in Upper New York. Every horse in this full 14-filly field has a legitimate shot at hitting the board. It should be a fun one for spectators and connections, but if you’re here looking to handicap this one, just put your cash back in your pocket and enjoy the wonderful mess you are about to read about.<\/SPAN> 1 – <\/SPAN><\/B>FISHING HOLE(KY) <\/SPAN><\/B>\u2013<\/SPAN><\/B> born2cheat \u2013 6\/1 Sire-Pulpit<\/SPAN><\/I> We begin with the morning line favorite, a nicely bred daughter of Pulpit. She is 2-for-2 lifetime winning a her maiden effort at 4.5f (66spf) and following it up with a 6f allowance win (73spf). She likes to run from a stalking position and it appears the 6.5f distance today will suit her well. While she is certainly a viable contender, she has never truly been tested and will have to jump up those speed figures to stay undefeated in this one. 2 – ARTFULLY(KY) \u2013 xiaoyih \u2013 12\/1<\/SPAN><\/B> Sire-Arch<\/SPAN><\/I> The morning line odds-maker may have had a bit too much to drink last night, as it’s hard to see this filly being a 12\/1 shot here. All she has done in her two races on dirt is win a maiden 6f race (78spf) in dominant fashion and then followed that with a strong 2nd in the G3 Whisky Tango (83spf) also at 6f. She will be up front early and I suspect will still be near the lead late. 3 – RANDOM ARIZONA(IRE) \u2013 mm11ranger \u2013 19\/1<\/SPAN><\/B> Sire-Titus Livius<\/SPAN><\/I> This one gives you an idea of the depth in this field. Here is a filly who is 3-for-3 lifetime and comes in as the co-last choice according to the morning line. She’s not as regally bred as much of the field, but she has shown up for every race and put up improving speed figures of 64, 72, and 74. She will likely fall in just behind the leaders in this one early and we’ll see if she has what it takes to make a run at it late. 4 – TAKE THE KEYS(KY) \u2013 pilot747 \u2013 9\/1<\/SPAN><\/B> Sire-Tale of Ekati<\/SPAN><\/I> This filly showed she has class in her last effort, a solid 3rd place in the G2 Red Fish Blue Fish (77spf) at this same 6.5f distance. That was her follow up to an easy debut victory at 6f (74spf). This one should be part of the big group fighting for position at the front early and she’s shown she has the chops to fight it out down the stretch. 5 –<\/SPAN><\/B> MARIONETA(KY) <\/SPAN><\/B>\u2013<\/SPAN><\/B> patluc4 \u2013 13\/1 Sire-Heatseeker<\/SPAN><\/I> This speedster just keeps impressing and now the connections have decided it’s time to see what she can do against some big-time competition. She loves to go out fast and that style has netted her two wins (75\/77spf) and two seconds (66\/73spf) in her four career starts. She will almost certainly be part of the early speed battle, but will have to take another step forward to be in it late against this class field. 6 – GRAND ASSEMBLY(KY) \u2013 kindone4 \u2013 7\/1<\/SPAN><\/B> Sire-Grand Reward This filly looks like a real threat to cross the line first. She has two victories and two runner-up finishes in her four career starts and comes in off her second place in the G2 Hoserhead Juvenile where she came from 9th to miss by a length (86spf). The speed number from that effort and her off-the-pace running style in a race full of pace, makes this observer think she’s going to find herself in the thick of it as they approach the wire. 7 – SEWDEE(KY) \u2013 prufrockja \u2013 8\/1<\/SPAN><\/B> Sire-Malibu Moon<\/SPAN><\/I> The good news for this one is that it comes in with a win and a third against listed stakes competition. The bad news is that she didn’t handle graded company well her last time out, coming in 10th in the G2 Lean Machine. She will certainly have to improve her career best 73 speed figure to be competitive in this field. If she has the legs, she will likely be among the group jockeying for a position on the lead or just off the pace in a stalking position. 8 – SHOKAI(KY) \u2013 jarid \u2013 19\/1<\/SPAN><\/B> Sire-First Samurai Very inexperienced, this filly is making a big jump to graded company in this one. She has a 5f maiden win (64spf) and a 2nd against allowance company (73spf) at 6f. If she can handle the class of the field and continue her improvement, her running style may actually fit the race quite well. She likes to lay a bit off the pace and come late from mid-pack. We’ll see if she has what it takes at this level.<\/SPAN> 9 – HOMUNCULUS(VA) \u2013 valhalla \u2013 9\/1<\/SPAN><\/B> Sire-Gold Avenue This young lady could be a real factor in the outcome here. She boasts a listed stake victory at 7f and ran a hard-closing 4th in the G2 Lean Machine at 6.5f last time out. Her style is a good match for today’s field and I’d expect her to be closing late. Now, whether that puts her in 5th or 1st, I don’t really know, but I’d expect her to be passing horses down the stretch. 10 – BINISSALEM(JPN) \u2013 cadiz \u2013 11\/1 Sire-Pyro<\/SPAN><\/I> This one has bounced back from a disappointing 7th in the G2 Vermont Juvenile Filly to take a second (72spf) and a victory (77spf) against allowance company. She has gone straight to the lead in these last two and I’d expect that to be her strategy again in this race. The difficulty there is that there are others who will be doing the same and they’ve shown as much or more speed. She will need to continue improving to be there at the end. 11 – HOWELL MOUNTAIN(KY) \u2013 super17 \u2013 8\/1 Sire-Candy Ride<\/SPAN><\/I> Yet another filly who could be right there at the finish or could be out the back as they head down the stretch. She has shown improvement and ran a solid 5th (76spf) last time out in the G2 Lean Machine. Her style could help her, as she likes to stalk from mid-pack and may just be able to get the jump on the true closers. For that to happen however, she will likely have to significantly improve on her effort last time out. 12 – LITURGY(KY) \u2013 theprofit8 \u2013 14\/1 Sire-Street Boss<\/SPAN><\/I> This gal started her career with consecutive wins at 4.5f, including the G3 Unusual Circumstances. Her last two races, at this 6.5f distance, have been less than spectacular (9th and 13th place finishes). She showed early on that she has the class to run at this level, but she will have to significantly improve on her lifetime best 72spf and based on the last two efforts, it seems a tough ask. 13 – EARLY DEBUT(AR) \u2013 cmd2001 \u2013 12\/1 Sire-Fan The Flame<\/SPAN><\/I> One of the most experienced racers in the field, this filly has faced listed stakes company four times in her six career races. Her last four races have all boasted speed figures in the 70’s with a high number of 76. She has finished in the top 4 in her five starts on dirt, proving she competes every time out. It looks like this one would have to significantly improve to challenge for the victory, but don’t discount her as a challenger for a top-five position. 14 – MARCHING INN(KY)\u2013 broohar \u2013 7\/1 Sire-Arch<\/SPAN><\/I> This filly may be on the far outside in the starting gate, but I’d be surprised to see her far outside the money in this one. It could be difficult to run her favored front-running style from this post position against this field full of speed, but it seems possible. She only has two starts on dirt, a 6f allowance win (74spf) and a 7f second place (84spf) in a listed stake. In both those races, she zoomed to the lead and fought to the finish. It will be interesting to see what happens in this one, where she will no doubt be challenged for early control. As I mentioned, it should be a wild race with a big group battling for early supremacy. Because that speed battle appears inevitable with this field I’m going to predict Grand Assembly\u00a0will be charging late and get up just in time. My prediction: 6-2-14-9 (disclaimer: there is virtually no chance of this being correct)<\/SPAN><\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Deck Is Not Stacked In This One<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":199,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8327","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/199"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8327"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8327\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8327"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8327"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8327"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}