{"id":7957,"date":"2010-04-09T05:10:30","date_gmt":"2010-04-09T05:10:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=7957"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=7957","title":{"rendered":"Downpour douses dirt, DIOCESE deemed daunting"},"content":{"rendered":"

By ITCH<\/STRONG><\/P>

Leads to May flowers?<\/P>

A spring shower has left the New York track a sloppy mess for the Grade 2, $150,000 Mellow Breeze Handicap<\/STRONG><\/EM>, going a mile on the main track for 3yo fillies. Handicap is an odd name for a 3yo-only race, as that moniker normally applies to contests for older horses who are assigned ascending weights in an effort to bring them together at the wire. The only real handicap here is the mental one carried by your friendly WV racing reporter.<\/P>

In getting to this group of talented 3yo fillies, I have to admit that I was rather shocked to see that the strong favorite, Lilbitfarm’s<\/EM> DIOCESE<\/STRONG>, qualifies only third here in terms of stakes points. My first guess is that this race may have come up very tough if a super filly like Diocese is only qualifying third. Let’s get to the horses and find out, shall we?<\/P>

At the top of the pecking order, at least in terms of stakes points, is CAPTAIN AWESOME<\/STRONG>, the 7-1 second choice trained by none other than Dixiedotco<\/EM>, who, simply put, is the greatest trainer in the history of the Sim. There can be only one reaction when Dixie shows up to race against you, and that’s “Oh crap.” In poker terms, it would be roughly akin to sitting down at a table and looking across at Phil Ivey. No matter how many horse races you’ve won, Dixie has you outclassed. As such, this point leads us to one of the greatest benefits of reporting for the BTB (that is, beyond the credits and Snowchief’s liquor cabinet). In covering these races, you learn a lot as you see how a great trainer like Dixie handles a horse’s career. With Captain Awesome, we’re seeing a little bit of a deviation from the accepted norm now that you have to give your good horses, especially the young ones, at least five weeks between races. Dixie has cast that theory aside with this particular filly, especially lately. This will be Captain Awesome’s third-straight race with only three weeks rest. After a close-up third in the Grade I Los Vinaigrette, in which she was passed in the lane for the first time in her career, Dixie came back three weeks later in a short, non-graded field of four. The fact that Captain Awesome lost that race at very short odds may be taken as a sign of trouble. Another sign that Dixie may be losing confidence in this filly was that she was entered last out in a grass race. That did not work out so well, either, as she was only fourth of five, a shockingly poor result for a classy Grade I filly like this. And now, after only three more weeks, she’s back to the main track, and will race on a sloppy track. The mile is her wheelhouse distance, and you can normally go to the betting window and back Dixie with confidence, but there are signs of trouble with this talented filly.<\/P>

Also qualifying ahead of the favorite is one of the longest shots in the field, the Eaglesfan Stables’<\/EM> SHORTY LONG<\/STRONG>. Step right up if you want to bet a Washington-bred at 17-1 against a field full of mostly Kentucky-breds. By Cahill Road, this pretty brown filly already has outrun her modest breeding, scoring a shocking upset at 18-1 last fall when she took down the Grade I Walnut Tree Stakes. Shorty Long beat a lot of high-priced animals that day, and she finds herself in a very similar spot here in New York on Saturday. Similar, but not exactly the same. The filly was not in such bad form when she pulled her coup in September. She isn’t feeling too good currently, having missed the board in four straight races since that big win. Eaglesfan will have to engineer a form reversal here, and a Grade 2 does not seem a likely spot for such a trick. However, it’s clear that Eaglesfan still believes in the high class of this filly, as she is a Grade I winner, after all. Another point in this filly’s favor is that she did beat the top qualifier, Captain Awesome, on Breeders Bowl day. Shorty Long was eighth, ahead of Captain Awesome in 10th. It’s just going to be hard to back her considering her current streak of four poor races. If she hits the board, she’s going to burn my trifecta tickets.<\/P>

Now, we get to the morning-line choice. Lilbitfarm Rich<\/EM> is one of our all-time favorite Sim trainers. Years ago, when I first started doing a walk for Cystic Fibrosis for my niece, Rich was the first to respond to my request for a donation. This man is all class and is to be respected and appreciated. I’m sure Rich appreciates having a filly the caliber of DIOCESE.<\/STRONG> This daughter of Pulpit has been a runner right from the start. She won her first four races, capping that streak with a Grade 2 win. It’s interesting that of the four offspring from Lilbitfarm’s Grade C Wild Again mare NEIGHBOR, Diocese is by far the best. The other three are all claimers. Diocese is far, far better than the others. She’s a very impressive seven for nine lifetime, amassing a whopping $322,000 in earnings before even her 10th start. Yowza! Like at the beginning of her career, Diocese is on another win streak. She’s won three in a row while favored at odds-on in short, non-graded fields, and at three different distances to boot. Normally, Sim horses are very distance-specific, and you know you’ve got an exceptional horse when they are able to win at more than one distance. How about four? In only nine career races, Diocese already has won at four different distances. You might say she’s a bit ecumenical with her distance services. I guess if you were trying to knock a handicapping hole in this fine filly, you might observe that she was defeated in her only try at a flat mile, and defeated the last time she raced against a full field of 14. Those are thin criticisms at best, however. The reality is that this filly has a big speed figure edge over this field, and a big talent edge as well. She’s got every chance to win.<\/P>

Our fourth qualifier comes from the Land Down Under. The entertaining Houseriot<\/EM> takes the long trip from Queensland to New York City with FORAGING,<\/STRONG> a brown daughter of Forestry. She’s out of Houseriot’s fine old Grade F Affirmed mare NURSE ORANGE, who Houseriot clearly has an affinity for, as he’s bred to her every year since 2003. Nurse Orange has dropped a grand total of seven Sim horses, and Houseriot has been rewarded for his loyalty to this mare. Of her first five foals, four were claimers. Only the first, the now-retired PJ GUENOSO, was stakes placed. But Houseriot stuck with her and kept trying. In 2008 he got BECCA’S RAVE, who is currently struggling in allowance company but is stakes placed. Then, last year, came the big prize, Foraging. With $113,000 in the bank and a stakes win to her credit, she already may be the best horse to come from that 15yo mare, Nurse Orange. As far as this filly’s current form, she got clobbered pretty bad last out when stretching out to nine furlongs in the Grade 2 Miss Bonnie. That’s the bad news. The good news she cuts back to her preferred distance of a flat mile here Saturday. Foraging has three career wins at the distance, and the mile seems her clear preference. She got her stakes win two back at a flat mile, and now Houseriot will try the next trick and get a graded placing for this filly. Her strong mid-90 speed figures match up with the favorite. She could do her mama proud.<\/P>

Oooh weeeeeee look at that big speed figure number on the fifth qualifier. STILL AN ANIMAL<\/STRONG> became a stakes winner in her fifth career start, her second on the main track last out with a smashing score in a non-graded stake going 8.5 furlongs. Double bam in the Happy Honeymoon Stakes, don’t you know? Bam, Still an Animal scores at almost 15-1, and double bam, she earns a sizzling 101 that makes her an obvious eye-catcher in this race. Rvd Stables ran this Montjeu filly exclusively on the turf as a 2yo, and why not with that prominent turf sire at work? But, credit this GR Simster outfit for the smart distance switch, which has lighted this filly ablaze. She popped first time out on the dirt, winning with an improved effort at Saturday’s distance of a mile. Then, she really impressed last out with that triple-digit number. That’s really fast for a 3yo filly this early in the year, and this light gray daughter of Rvd’s Grade F Unbridled’s Song mare I AM AWESOMEO looks like a potential champion. There’s no sense dawdling with a mare of this talent, and Rvd moves up into a Grade 2 with confidence. She’s lightly raced with only five starts under her belt and is so far undefeated on the main track. They’re going to have to go pretty fast to keep her from going three-for-three.<\/P>

ZENACIOUS <\/STRONG>is a front-running chestnut daughter of Street Cry who makes her eighth career start and graded stakes debut here for My Man Otis and his partner Mtk out of their MTK and GALLOPLAZ SIM Joint Venture.<\/EM> This is an eight-barn partnership representing the Blazing Saddles residency with high-quality stock and winning racehorses. Their aggregate winning percentage is a very respectable 16.9 percent, and we have to keep in mind that the percentage is earned in large part while competing in stakes and allowance company. This is not a cheap operation like, say, the Itch stables, which have built a decent win mark by beating up on claimers. Zenacious is representative of this lot with her high class. A scratch-bred, she is very fast out of the gate, and has made the lead in four of her last five races Of those five opportunities, she’s won two. Not bad at all. Interestingly, she raced last out against the white-hot STILL AN ANIMAL, who passed her in the lane on the way to her impressive score in the Happy Honeymoon. However, by virtue of giving Still An Animal a serious challenge in that last race, you’ve got to move Zenacious up in your handicapping analysis as well, in my opinion. She didn’t win, but was a close-up third and probably ran the best race of her life in defeat. She earned a lifetime-best speed figure of 98 in that race which is very competitive here. It’s apparent that Otis and Mtk are hoping for big things from this little filly. She’s very fast, could set the pace and it could take some real running to get by her again.<\/P>

Right At Home Stables<\/EM> represents the GR Simsters here with DYNAREADY<\/STRONG>. As the name implies, this chestnut filly is indeed by the reliable sire Dynaformer. This is the first foal for Pointblank’<\/EM>s Grade G Awesome Again mare BATTLE READY, and it’s no wonder he was ready to send this one to the breeding shed. Despite her powerful breeding with AP Indy as her dam sire, Battle Ready was a disappointment on the racetrack. She was only 1 for 18 lifetime, and was hastily retired when she turned the minimum age of 5. I think that if Pointblank could have retired her at 4, he would have. Despite her lack of racing luck, Battle Ready is one-for-one as a broodmare, because Dynaready rocks. She broke alertly in second last out in her stakes debut, pressing the pace before taking a clear lead coming around the far turn. The only problem was, PORTRAIT was very game on her outside and ran past her in the lane, albeit by a slim margin. Dynaready fought on to the wire, and showed class and ability in doing so. She ran fast, earning a career-high speed figure of 96 in a very impressive effort. That was a tough test last out and she really passed it well, despite getting nailed on the wire. To this writer, that looked like an impressive race and Pointblank thinks so, too, as evidenced by the jump into graded competition.<\/P>

It’s starting to look like the horse van from Florida to New York was filled with nice fillies after the aforementioned Happy Honeymoon Stakes. In Cothill’s <\/EM>ACID RAIN COT<\/STRONG>, we have another one coming from that rapidly-run contest. Maybe a key race for the future? Time will tell. While both Still An Animal and Zenacious were contesting the pace in that race, Acid Rain Cot had quite the different trip. She dropped out last, then dropped some more. At one point, she was 13 lengths behind, but that’s when she started her kick. Up front, Still An Animal was busy wearing down Zenacious. As they raced into the stretch, it looked like DREAM LEAGUE was going to be the closing threat, and Still An Animal really seemed like she was bursting because of that one when she went by Zenacious. But, then the true closer appeared like a shot on the far outside. It was Acid Rain Cot, who came flying to catch Zenacious and almost Still An Animal. That was a huge late run and it will be fun to see her try her Silky Sullivan trick again. Will it work in the slop? Now, this is a maybe an unproven handicapping angle, but she does have the word “rain” in her name.<\/P>

Guess where the famous French mime Marcel Marceau was when he died at age 84? At the track. True story. You could look it up on Wikipedia. Perhaps that was the racing connection the Super Stables<\/EM> were thinking of when they named the simulated MARCEL MARCEAU<\/STRONG> for the world’s most famous performer of the art of silence. On Saturday, this light gray daugher of Unbridled’s song will be portraying a young horse attempting to make the jump all the way from conditioned allowance company to a Grade 2. (The performance seems unlikely to be mime authentic, as her hooves are bound to make some noise hitting the sloppy track. Although, it occurs to me that the Sim viewer makes no noise, so maybe a Sim horse could make for a decent mime.) The Supers probably are basing their decision to make this steep class jump on the nice 96 speed figure this filly earned last out in a\u00a0N3L allowance going nine furlongs. In handicapping this filly, that’s the No. 1 thing you’ve got to be asking yourself, whether she has the class to handle Grade 2. Can she repeat that nice 96 on the cutback\/class jump? It makes you doubt it a little when that poor slop try jumps out of her past performances. Unlike many of her opponents in here, Marcel Marceau does have some experience racing on a sloppy track. The only problem is, her experience was lousy. She was a well-beaten seventh while racing in allowance company at the cheap track in Missouri. Now we’re expected to believe she’s got the right to contend in the Big City of New York in a Grade 2? I’m not buying it. Marcel Marceau is liable to be wearing some sad face makeup on her way back to the barn after this race.<\/P>

GETTING OUT TONIGHT<\/STRONG> has only three stakes points for natural1’s Milkshake Free <\/EM>outfit. I have to admit I had not heard of her sire, Lewis Michael, until just now. Shame on me. Apparently a lot of other people have. This son of Rahy sired 82 horses in the Sim last year, half of whom have managed to win a race so far. Early in 2010, there are nine 2yos by Lewis Michael, none of whom have won yet, but it’s hard to hold that against them this early in the year. When it was announced the real-life Lewis Michael would stand stud at Three Chimneys, owner Robert Clay said: “We are thrilled to have the opportunity to stand this outstanding son of Rahy, who continues to be one of our most prolific stallions. Lewis Michael ensures that the Rahy influence will continue for years to come.” So far, Lewis Michael has two stakes winners in the Sim, and Milkshake Free is looking for No. 3 with Gettin Out Tonight. She’s currently the 10th-best Lewis Michael of the Class of 2009 and would look to move way, way up that ladder with a win here Saturday. Working in her favor are two good races on off tracks, although both were on good, and not sloppy, tracks. Form-wise, Getting Out Tonight bears a strong resemblance to the Super Stable filly, what with the same jump in class, same cutback in distance and same sort of improved speed figure last out. It kind of bugs me that Gettin Out Tonight was thrashed in her most recent try at this distance. She won’t come running until late if she comes running at all.<\/P>

SAN FRAN GOLD<\/STRONG> is getting some decent respect from the morning line oddsmaker here at 10-1 despite qualifying all the way down in 11th position with only three stakes points. Everybody has seen some insanely inaccurate odds attached to various horses throughout the years in the Sim, but it looks to me that the New York oddsmaker hit it right on the head with this pretty brown daughter of Giant’s Causeway. Papracing<\/EM> has enjoyed very good luck with this filly so far. She’s started only six times in her life, and hit the board in all six races. Impressive. She’s got two wins and usually gets a lot of respect in the morning line, consistently going off at a short price. She’s improved her speed figures in her last two, graduating from the 80s to the 90s as seems a prerequisite for contention here. There’s a lot to like about this filly, from her blueblood breeding (Deputy Minister and Alydar behind that GC), to her admirable consistency. This is the kind of racehorse you want in the Sim, one that has the talent to contend for the win on a regular basis. Papracing has decided to let her rip straight of an N2L score. It’s clear he thinks he’s got a good one here.<\/P>

Step right up if you want to bet a Michigan-bred at 16-1 against a field full of Kentucky breds. Karie’s<\/EM> FIRE CROWN<\/STRONG> is by the Storm Cat sire Fire Blitz, who, like Lewis Michael, I have to admit I had not heard of until now. Unlike with Lewis Michael, I have to say it’s no wonder I have not heard of this sire. Fire Blitz has been available for use in the Sim since his debut season in 2006, and has sired only five horses total. It’s really remarkable that Karie has found a really nice filly by this bargain-basement sire. The five horses by Fire Blitz have earned a total of $200,000, and Fire Crown has earned $140,000 of those. Win or lose here Saturday, Fire Crown already is an amazing success story. And you know what? I might just be crazy enough to back this filly at her big price. Why not? She handicaps decently in this spot. Her speed figures are competitive, with that nice 96 last out when a close-up fourth at 24-1 in the Grade I Ohio Luck restricted race. She beat 14 fillies that day as the field was larger than normal at 18. She had a three-race win streak prior to that. This filly does indeed look like a runner and it’s going to be interesting to see if she can do something in this spot on Saturday.<\/P>

ENFORCE THIS<\/STRONG> is the co-longest shot on the board at 17-1. Stormbound Stables<\/EM> sends this chestnut daughter of Exchange Rate out into a Grade 2 even though she was seventh, beaten five lengths last out in a non-graded stake. What makes Stormbound think this filly can handle the jump to Grade 2 when she could not handle a non-graded stake last out? I am going to take a guess that he wanted to take a shot on the off track at this distance. It was only two back that Enforce this ran her career-best race at a mile in the slop, the exact conditions she catches Saturday. The big difference, of course, is the class of the race. Stormbound is asking a lot of this filly to contend in a Grade 2. There are serious class and speed figure concessions here, and the slop is going to have to move this filly up a good bit for her to have a say.<\/P>

Finally, we have POTATO LAKE<\/STRONG> from none other than the BTB boss herself, Roys<\/EM>. What is this bird up to with this versatile, late-running chestnut daughter of Pivotal? Well, she’s finding a way to earn on both turf and dirt with this promising filly, that much we can see. Potato Lake won four out of eight last year on the turf, but a defeat might have been her best race, when she was second in the Grade 3 Me Me Me Handicap. So, we see we have something of an anomaly here with this back-class filly being ranked all the way at the bottom. She’s proven her graded-level chops, but it was on the other surface. After a disappointing 10th-place finish in a non-graded stake, Roys decided a surface switch was in order and was rewarded in her decision when Potato Lake did indeed win her main-track debut. She was fifth last out in a Grade 3 going seven furlongs, which was maybe a little disappointing, except that she got her career-high speed figure in the race. It’s hard to know if she’s ready to contend in this spot. Maybe we can chase down Roys back by the liquor cabinet at the BTB offices and get the skinny on this filly before post time on Saturday.<\/P>

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!<\/STRONG><\/P>

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