race 4260.5914
The Park Place Express-G3, 3yo+ F 8F Turf<\/p>\n
We are in Ireland this week for the Park Express Stakes the race was named after a very good racemare of the 1980\u2019s. The mare won the Irish Champion Stakes there are not many fillies who win open age grade 1 races so her class is beyond question. She had two very good sons the first was by Green Desert and ran in Japan his name was Shinko Forest. He was at stud in Ireland to his death. He had a decent record and was a source of speed. He sired 10 graded winners in the last decade compare that against Unusual Heat that certain people thought should be a sim elite sire his record was seven in the same period. If we compare there sim worth it is obvious which sire had a better rating and they are at about the same level.<\/p>\n
Her other son was New Approach he was a top class 2yo in fact the best in the world of his year and a multiple grade 1 winner. At three he was a classic winner and placed in two others he also won two open age grade 1 races. In fact he had the perfect race record to make a top class stallion. His sim record is poor and does not make any sense.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s look at the facts in 2009 12 sires had over 10 grade winners worldwide. Two of these were from horses that ran in Brazil and Argentina so the form is a long way removed from top class. Therefore there are ten sires that have star quality based on graded stakes winners. These were Montjeu, Giant\u2019s Causeway, Galileo, Oasis Dream, A P Indy, Pivotal, Rock Of Gibraltar, Encosta De Lago, Danehill Dancer and Zabeel.<\/p>\n
If we look at these 8 out of 10 won open age grade 1 races as three year old this is obviously the most important factor in accessing a top class stallion. Of the other two Danehill Dancer was a grade 1 winner at two as was Oasis Dream, Giant\u2019s Causeway, A P Indy and Rock Of Gibraltar so 505 won a grade 1 at this age in fact every one ran at two and only Encosta De Lago failed to win.<\/p>\n
Zabeel only won a grade 1 3yo only race but his offspring did most of there graded winning in New Zealand where the quality of the racing is slightly below where the other sires were operating.<\/p>\n
We had a similar situation as that of 2009 several years ago. When Oasis Dream in the top ten sires and Dalakhani who has over 10% stakes winners to runners went to stud. The two highest rated horses in the sim were Mineshaft and Empire Maker. If we look at the race records of these horses we can see the fact the two former were likely to be better sires.<\/p>\n
Oasis Dream grade 1 winner at two high rated horse in Europe and then open age multiple grade 1 winner at three.<\/p>\n
Dalakhani grade 1 winner at two and multiple grade 1 winner at three including open age grade 1 and a classic.<\/p>\n
Mineshaft never ran at two and listed winner at three improved at four to win graded races.<\/p>\n
Empire Maker won a grade 1 3yo only race before retiring injured. <\/p>\n
It is obvious looking at the best sires in the world which sires should have been rated highest and this has been proven. You would hope that in future years as the sim evolves Mike would learn from past results it appears that this is not the case.<\/p>\n
If we look at 2009 see above for New Approach<\/p>\n
Curlin never ran at two open age grade 1 winner and classic winner at three. No 2yo run big negative.<\/p>\n
Big Brown won maiden at two and grade 1 winner in same age group at three. (Looks like Point Given revisited to me). <\/p>\n
Henrythenavigator graded winner at two and three year old only classic winner at three and open age grade 1 winner as well.<\/p>\n
Ravens Pass graded winner at two and multiple open age grade 1 winner at three.<\/p>\n
Therefore on probability they should be rated in this order New Approach, Henrythenavigator, Ravens Pass, Curlin and Big Brown (should not have been near the top of the list plenty of other sires had better profiles than him). The results so far show that to be a long way from the truth. It is hard to figure out why Curlin and Big Brown were rated higher in ability terms and like in so many years there appears to be already massive adjustments likely to take place in future years. Curlin has problems not due to his race record which is beyond anyone\u2019s control.<\/p>\n
The problem is though when US racehorses that have not had runners are grossly overrated (just because many people are lazy and cannot be bothered to find out about sires race records) it makes the whole system very unreliable. It means players tend to concentrate on young sire\u2019s which is not how most top class owner breeder\u2019s work. At the end of the day sim players are all owner breeders not commercial vendors.<\/p>\n
SHAMADAMADINGDONG (IRE) SHAMARDAL x SUNDAY SILENCE x POLISH PRECEDENT<\/p>\n
This horse\u2019s young sire has done very well in real life. He has already had a grade 1 winner and several other stakes winners. The horses are also improving from two to three and he looks like a very good sire in the making. In truth this horse has one of the few top class turf pedigrees in the race it is a shame her form is not so great. She has been highly tried and is open to much easier races than this. The trip also seems well short of her best. This horse could be a really good bp earning animal at allowance stakes level at 10f+. She looks like an also ran in this event. <\/p>\n
POWER TO SKUNKS (KY) POWERSCOURT (GB) x HABITAT x CREME DELA CR\u00c8ME<\/p>\n
It is no surprise Powerscourt was sold by Coolmore to Turkey. It is no surprise he was a turkey at stud too. I predicted this would happen and his sim rating was silly all this has proven to be true. Thirteen stakes winner from his first crop was a total joke outstand sires struggle to do that of 110 runners in the current world of racing let alone one with little hope. He has sired one very good horse though all his other runners in Europe have shown at best modest ability most none at all. This horse is improving nicely of late. She has been running well with good speed figures and gradually getting better against higher quality opposition. She is worth a shot at graded level and if carrying through her recent form can make the frame.<\/p>\n
BEST D YET (IRE) SADLER’S WELLS x A.P. INDY x RAISE A NATIVE<\/p>\n
A P Indy has a terrible record outside the US where he is top class. He has an equally poor record as a dam sire as well. One grade 3 winner in France and a restricted stakes winner in Japan do not represent a top class dam sire of international repute. Let him be top class on dirt he is but not on turf where he is not in the top 200 dam sires worldwide. This lightly raced horse has a really good profile. She is on the upgrade and likes the trip. Her speed figures are good as well. The negative is after four wins will she bounce. Apart from that she has a very good chance in this race.<\/p>\n
MOI LOLITA (KY) AWESOME AGAIN (CAN) x A.P. INDY x KINGMAMBO<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s face facts there is more chance of a horse with the pedigree Lord Pye * Beisbol on the front end siring a top class turf horse than this sire combination. Awesome Again\u2019s turf record is horrid as a sire his record with horses under the age of six in general is nothing to get excited about either a major downgrade should have taken place this year to reflect that. This horse has a good overall record. The last few runs in graded races have been pretty poor though. With the change of year you just wonder if the wear and tear brick wall has not jumped out in the middle of the track and smash! It is hard to make a case out for the horse on present form. <\/p>\n
SUPER TORCH (KY) WAR CHANT x SEATTLE SLEW x ALYDAR<\/p>\n
War Chant managed his first grade 1 winner in real life last year. His \u00be brother is not doing so well at Coolmore in Ireland either which is no great surprise really given his stud record. This horse tends to run well and post decent speed figure in ungraded stakes allowance records. When put up in class she appears to come up short. There is no real evidence to suggest that trend will reverse in this race and she has to be considered one of the outsiders.<\/p>\n
ULTIMATE MACHINE (ENG) PIVOTAL (GB) x A.P. INDY x DANZIG<\/p>\n
I know there are some words that are spelt different in American English against proper English like Colour is spelt Color but I would have never guessed Sadler\u2019s Wells was spelt A.P. Indy I mean I would have made a beet guess trying to spell it in Mandarin. Pivotal as seen by the analysis above is one of the top stallions in the world he also made the list not doing dual hemisphere details which makes it more impressive. This young horse is on a nice upward curve. The run in graded company is warranted and the filly has the profile of an improver that could go onto better things. She has place claims in this race. <\/p>\n
FIVE DEAD (KY) A.P. INDY x SHARPEN UP (GB) x DAMASCUS<\/p>\n
This race is obviously a donkey sanctuary doing a practice run for next weekends Palm Sunday parades. This can be the only explanation for all these horse with A.P. Indy being in a turf race. Sadler\u2019s Wells, Danehill (where is he) in the pedigree of horses this many times is believe A.P. Indy no way never ever it is plan silly. Sharpen Up was a really good dam sire but has only had three graded winners in the last ten years in real life. It does question the cut of age for dam sires once again and the need for depreciation in worth after a certain time after death. This is though a really good horse the class of the race and benchmark. Her speed figures are top class and consistent which is a big bonus and a multiple grade 1 winner recently. She has a very good chance of making the frame at least.<\/p>\n
ROAR OF APPROVAL (KY) CAT THIEF x A.P. INDY x WITH APPROVAL<\/p>\n
If you read the Coolmore Breeders guide for 2009 you will see A.P. Indy\u2019s name appear once as a relative to Duke Of Marmalade. The number of times he is advised as a mate or his daughters I should say is zero. There is a reason why the world top stud farm does this it is simple he sucks as a turf sire and so do his daughters. This filly picked up a couple of wins in end of year 3yo only graded races; surely they should be 4yo only based on the northern hemisphere calendar. If she puts her best foot forward she has place claims but the gut feeling is those wins flatter her and there are a few with better form great potential in this field.<\/p>\n
GREEN OASIS (KY) DEHERE x GREEN DESERT x SEEKING THE GOLD<\/p>\n
Dehere has been leased for Turkey for 2010. This probably tells you where his future lies as a sire. He has been around a bit as well. His best runners have seemed to be in Australia. His stud record is probably not a true reflection of his overall ability his sim record is probably about 20% better than it should be. This horse has had a couple of good wins of late in restricted races. Her last stakes win was in June. In truth this race looks a bit hot for her given her results in general although she can run decent speed figures. There are likely to be a few to god for her in this race. <\/p>\n
MERRY TURFMAS (IRE) GALILEO (IRE) x MACHIAVELLIAN x RUN THE GANTLET<\/p>\n
This horse is one of a few in this race with a proper turf pedigree. Her sires record is top class and likely to improve with the better bred coming through to race as of 2010. This mare was very good last year and was hitting the frame winning graded races of this type. That form would give her a very good chance in this race. The problem is her form now is not as good as before it. It would appear wear and tear is catching up with her. There are some improvers in here as well and she is passed over for selection.<\/p>\n
ELECTRIFICATION (ENG) RED RANSOM x DANEHILL x RAISE A NATIVE<\/p>\n
Red Ransom did not do as well as expected at stud in England he still did well in Australia though. The problem is he has left little in the way of sons to leave a legacy he is very much hoping Red Clubs comes good he has had the support to do so. Ekraar has done ok in New Zealand the same as Intikhab in Ireland both solid but not top class. This horse was on a nice upward curve but it appears something went wrong and then the come back run was a bit ambitious. The mare has had a nice confidence boosting win. She has the ability to run into a place if everything goes her way.<\/p>\n
THIS CAT SWINGS (KY) BADGE OF SILVER x STORM CAT x SEATTLE SLEW<\/p>\n
This horse\u2019s sire is a first year stallion in 2010. His first yearlings sold last year and one made $150k many sold for less than five figures. He very much looks like a sire with little or no future which is no surprise he needs a massive downgrade in the sim. The fact he has had three graded winners in the sim is and all are on turf! There are plenty of sires with there first runners this year that will far outperform him that have sim rating well below this. This goes a long way to explaining why US based sires are 7 times more likely than they should be to sire graded stakes winners. This mare has been improving of late and was stakes placed last time out. This is a step up in class again and it looks like a win will be hard to achieve in this field <\/p>\n
As for my selections:-<\/p>\n
1 Best D Yet, on the upgrade nice profile for this time of year
2 Five Dead, class horse should run well
3 Ultimate Machine, another on the upgrade<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The Park Place Express<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":222,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7864","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7864","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/222"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7864"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7864\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7864"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7864"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7864"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}