{"id":7731,"date":"2010-01-29T23:41:19","date_gmt":"2010-01-29T23:41:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=7731"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=7731","title":{"rendered":"Plenty of Chances in Shawnee River"},"content":{"rendered":"

A full field of fourteen fillies and mares has accepted for this week\u2019s Florida<\/st1:place><\/st1:State> feature, The Shawnee River Handicap<\/I>, a Grade 3 event. To be conducted on a firm turf track, the eight and a half furlong contest carries a purse of $100,000. An even field lines up, as we see in the market. The favorite, Please Move Over<\/B>, is 9\/2 in pre-race betting, closely followed by Balalaika<\/B> and The Witching Hour<\/B> at 5\/1. Five runners are likely to start at single figure odds, while four outsiders are ranked in the 20\/1 zone, indicating that, even if their winning chances may be slim, they are still very capable racehorses. The rank outsider, Oro Blanco<\/B>, is a far better horse than her price would indicate.<\/P>

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Looking through the field in barrier order:<\/P>

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# 1 \u2013 Please Move Over <\/B>\u2013 (Pleasantly Perfect <\/I>\/ Pivotal \/ Graustark<\/I>) \u2013 Weller3 <\/B>\u2013<\/P>

The bookmakers have placed her on top this week, and if ever a horse is overdue for a Graded win, this one is. Three seconds in quality Graded events, from her last four outings, must have connections cursing what can only be described as bad luck. In October and November last year, she finished runner up in both the G1-The Last Woman<\/I>, and the G1-The Empire Rose<\/I>. She did the same thing once again last start in the G2-Remember Stakes<\/I>, yet again flying home and passing all but the winner. Perhaps a slight concern in that she drops back half a furlong here, given that she\u2019s running on as if she may want even more ground, but she\u2019s the deserving favorite, and the one they have to beat. The perfect barrier will allow her to settle back on the fence, before charging late.<\/P>

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# 2 \u2013 Balalaika <\/B>– (Soviet Star \/ Victory Gallop \/ Lear Fan<\/I>) \u2013 Ranulff<\/B> \u2013 Equal second in the market, and ideally drawn to enable her to slot in behind the leaders on the fence, this six year old mare is a model of consistency. She\u2019s taken home a check in each of her last ten runs. All but two of those checks were for podium finishes, including the winners share on five occasions. All her current form is around this distance range, and although most of it is allowance form, she does have a handy stakes win amongst those efforts. A question mark remains regarding her ability at the Graded level, as she\u2019s fallen shorts in each of three previous attempts, but she\u2019s racing in stellar form at present, and this looks a good opportunity for her to overcome that \u2018blemish\u2019 in her career<\/P>

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# 3 \u2013 Erendirita<\/B> – (Bernardini <\/I>\u2013 Justice Reigns<\/B> (Cat Thief \/ Lit De Justice<\/I>)) – Ottico<\/B> \u2013 A winner of six of fifteen, and capable of running the sort of time we\u2019ll be looking at here, this Graded placed four year old looks to have sneaked in under the radar when the early markets were being framed. She\u2019s won two of her last three, with the previously mentioned Graded placing coming four starts back in the G3-The Nannette<\/I> last August. That equates to very handy recent form. But perhaps the most telling positives in her formline feature just a little further back. Between December 06 and March 07, she had three consecutive races, two allowances and an ungraded stakes, over the distance she faces this week. They are her only three career runs at this trip, and she won all three of them. That\u2019s good form in this writer\u2019s opinion. This is a handy field, but if you\u2019re looking for betting value, it doesn\u2019t look to come much better than this.<\/P>

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# 4 \u2013 Oro Blanco<\/B> – Vindication <\/I>\u2013 Growling<\/B> (Kingmambo \/ Forestry<\/I>)) \u2013 Mygirldeb<\/B> \u2013 Can she win this race? Probably not, but I\u2019m tipping she won\u2019t come last either. Is she one of the sim\u2019s great claims? Without a doubt. Is she going to make a name for herself in the black type ranks? Also yes, without a doubt. She\u2019s beautifully bred, and I\u2019m a great believer in the \u201cVindication<\/I> needs time\u201d school of thought. So, here\u2019s my prediction. This mare will run a much better race here than her price would suggest. She\u2019ll go on to continue scoring triple digits, and to continue racing in good quality races. She\u2019ll go on to be the subject of many more BTB articles, many of which will point out what a great bargain she was. And she\u2019ll eventually make a marvelous broodmare.<\/P>

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# 5 \u2013 Dominique\u2019s Ten \u00a0<\/SPAN><\/B>– (Rock Hard Ten <\/I>\u2013 Deja Blue<\/B> (Forty Niner \/ Sadler\u2019s Wells<\/I>)) \u2013 Cheyenne15<\/B> \u2013 She\u2019s second longest in the market, and it would take a massive form turnaround for her to be able to overcome all the quality opposition she faces here. She\u2019s registered just one triple digit speed rating (101) in thirty two starts. She\u2019s not yet earned enough to have her photo taken, which is not a good sign given the aforementioned thirty two runs. Her one black type win was by a nose in a small field in Jamaica<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>. I keep looking, but I can\u2019t really find anything to inspire confidence. Sorry.<\/P>

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# 6 \u2013 Single White Pat<\/B> – (Gone West <\/I>\u2013 Three D FX<\/B> (Deputy Minister \/ Danzig<\/I>)) \u2013 Casino<\/B> \u2013 This more than handy half million dollar earner didn\u2019t have the best of years in 2009, but looks to have rebounded with her first start of the new year. We need to go back into the history books to find her career highlights, but a juvenile third in the G1-Filly Grand Prix<\/I> and, even more impressively, the same result in the G1-Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf Filly<\/I>, underline her undoubted class. As a three year old, second in the G2-Crumble Classic<\/I> was the highlight of that year. Following that, as we\u2019ve mentioned, 2009 was ordinary, with just an allowance win, and another in an ungraded stakes, providing the highlights. But how about that first race this year? The 106 she carded equaled her previous career best speed rating. We know she\u2019s got class. We know she\u2019s got current good form. Most punters will want to see her prove she\u2019s back to her peak, but if she is, this may be the best chance to support her at this sort of price.<\/P>

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# 7 \u2013 No She Didn\u2019t<\/B> – (Dynaformer \/ Gone West \/ Graustark<\/I>) \u2013 Timolloy<\/B> \u2013 The most lightly raced runner in the field with just ten starts under her belt, it\u2019s hard to argue with the market\u2019s assessment on raw speed numbers or quality of achievements thus far. But perhaps a little caution should be exercised when handicapping her, as she possibly has the greatest scope for improvement. I can\u2019t really see her as a winning chance, as she\u2019s had the two previous tilts at the black type, falling just short of the podium both times, and she\u2019s stepping up to Graded class here. But she is a last start winner. She\u2019s registered triple digits in two of her last three, and looks capable of making those numbers, and better, the norm from here on in. I think this might be a bit rich at this stage of her career, but if I were going wide in the exotics, I\u2019d be unwilling to leave her out.<\/P>

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# 8 \u2013 Mara Jade<\/B> – (Rahy \/ Danzig \/ Roberto<\/I>) \u2013 Claymore \u2013 <\/B>This four year old lines up for just the eighteenth time, and steps into her first Graded challenge following an ideal preparation. She\u2019s taken time to mature and, more importantly, has been given that time through a patient training program. She wasn\u2019t disgraced when tested in black type about twelve months ago, but then returned to allowances where she hit the podium in each of the next seven. Three ungraded stakes appearances since late last year have landed two wins and a third. Last start, over this trip, she cruised home with more than three lengths to spare. She\u2019s ready for this now. This isn\u2019t an easy introduction, but I\u2019m confident she\u2019ll run a big race, and that we\u2019ll see plenty more of her in upcoming Graded events.<\/P>

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# 9 \u2013 Capital Kindness<\/B> – (North Light <\/I>\u2013 No Violence<\/B> (Machiavellian \/ Shadeed<\/I>)) \u2013 Screaming<\/B> \u2013 \u00a0<\/SPAN>8\/1 would normally point to a runner mid way down the betting in a full field, but in this case, this filly ranks number four in the market, and with good chances which may, in hindsight, make that early price seem somewhat generous. Her price has been inflated by the shocker she ran in the G2-The Heidi Fleiss<\/I>, last September. But in two runs since then she\u2019s proven to have taken no harm from that race, as evidenced by her nose defeat, last time out, in the G3-Carrot Classic<\/I>. She\u2019s Grade 1 placed just four starts back, yet another pointer to her class. There\u2019s a slight concern with her strike rate, having won just the two starts from fourteen, but she hasn\u2019t been seeking out easy targets, and has been running big races in good quality fields. I really like her chances, especially considering that some of her more fancied opponents seem to lack her top class experience. She\u2019s the value runner among the top rated hopes.<\/P>

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# 10 \u2013 The Witching Hour <\/B>\u2013 (Fantastic Light <\/I>\u2013 Baku<\/B><\/st1:place><\/st1:City> (Danzig \/ Private Account<\/I>)) \u00a0<\/SPAN>\u2013 Buffy8<\/B> \u2013 She\u2019s a Grade 1 winner still racing with plenty of heart. She\u2019s a winner of three of her last four starts, albeit at a somewhat lower level. She\u2019s banked over one and a quarter million dollars and she hasn\u2019t gone home without a check in a dozen runs since September 08. Put all that together and you have a strong and formidable formline. While she\u2019s not contesting the quality of event that she frequented for most of her career, she\u2019s still proving to be most competitive in virtually everything she enters. There\u2019s no reason to suggest she won\u2019t put in another top run here. The 107 and 108 of her last two runs are equal to anything else on the recent form guide. There\u2019s no reason to suggest she won\u2019t put in another top run here, which is why the oddsmakers have her very near the top of the market.<\/P>

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# 11 \u2013 Backinaminute <\/B>– (Alderberan <\/I>\u2013 Easy Kingdom<\/B> (Kings Lake \/ Affirmed<\/I>)) – Thecrow<\/B> \u2013 A winner of four from seventeen, this filly has finished on the podium in fourteen of those career starts, and taken home consolation checks in the other three. You simply don\u2019t get much more consistent than that. So why the generous quote? Basically, it comes down to times and winning consistency. It\u2019s now eight starts since she took home the winners share, and she\u2019s registered triple digits in just two of her career runs. Contrast that with some of the more highly fancied, who trot out triple digits every time they go to the track, and we start to see the difference. But let\u2019s be positive. She\u2019s a Graded placed stakeswinner with nearly $300k in the bank. She doesn\u2019t run a bad race and while I can\u2019t see her winning, a solid effort is to be expected once again.<\/P>

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# 12 \u2013 Rolex<\/B> – (Ghostzapper <\/I>\u2013 Nexis Ofthe Crisis<\/B> (Kingmambo \/ Danehill<\/I>)) \u2013 Super1<\/B> \u2013 \u00a0<\/SPAN>Capable but inconsistent, this talented mare is down in the betting due to a losing streak of seven races, dating back to June last year. And although she\u2019s won an impressive six of her twenty, that aforementioned win was the only victory in the last fifteen starts. That\u2019s right, since winning her first five, including the G3-Fast Lane Stakes<\/I> at her third start, she\u2019s gone from potential world-beater to a handy, but unreliable battler. On a positive note, her whole career has been against black type opposition, and she hasn\u2019t been disgraced, regularly running a handy race. I imagine that\u2019s what connections are looking to here. Another handy race, but without the expectation of victory.<\/P>

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# 13 \u2013 Herself a Vixen <\/B>\u2013 (Smart Strike <\/I>\u2013 Saratoga Sioux<\/B> (Sadler\u2019s Wells \/ Green Dancer<\/I>))\u00a0 <\/SPAN>\u2013 Redrum<\/B> \u2013 Superbly bred, and relatively lightly raced for a five year old, this mare has been given plenty of time to mature. Having started her racing career as a January three year old, her starts have been nicely spaced, with all bar one at the lower allowance level. She was tested, and found wanting, in Graded company as a September three year old, but it\u2019s her most recent four runs which shows she\u2019s now ready for promotion. Consecutive triple digit ratings, trending upwards, and a strong victory over this trip, last time out, in 1.41.8, have given connections the signal to aim higher. This is a strong, fairly even field, and she\u2019ll have that black type question mark hovering until she performs at the higher grade, but she needs only a repeat of that last run to be counted among the genuine chances again this week.<\/P>

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# 14 \u2013 Plain of Existence <\/B>– (High Chaparral \/ More Than Ready \/ Sovereign Dancer<\/I>) \u2013 Acote6<\/B> \u2013 One of the outsiders in the early betting, this mare has proven thus far to be one of those who are more than competitive in the allowance ranks, but struggle to make the grade when promoted. This is her sixth attempt at black type, but she\u2019s failed to reach the podium in the earlier five. Contrast that with her latest allowance form. In the money, including three wins, from her last seven consecutive starts at the lower standard. She hasn\u2019t won since March last year, hasn\u2019t registered a triple digit run since April, and she\u2019s drawn the widest gate. It\u2019s hard to argue with the bookmakers\u2019 assessment, but her most recent run was a tad more promising. Not for mine, but she\u2019s not hopeless.<\/P>

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Selections: <\/U><\/B><\/P>

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Capital Kindness<\/B> \u2013 Grade 1 placed, in good form and at a great price<\/P>

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Erendirita<\/B> \u2013 In top form and unbeaten at this journey. Great Value<\/P>

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Please Move Over<\/B> \u2013 Deserves to win, but I rarely tip favorites to win.<\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Please Move Over Heads Mares Market<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":453,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/453"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7731"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7731\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}