{"id":7726,"date":"2010-01-29T18:50:14","date_gmt":"2010-01-29T18:50:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=7726"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=7726","title":{"rendered":"Losing streaks collide in Cali Grade 2"},"content":{"rendered":"

By ITCH<\/STRONG><\/P>

There’s an old saying in sports that “something has got to give” when two winning teams collide.<\/P>

Wonder what the appropriate observation is when losing streaks collide? Something has got to hold?<\/P>

Yes, something has got to hold in the $250,000 Grade 2 Spurs Handicap<\/STRONG><\/EM> in California, where several of the top qualifiers are looking to resurrect their lost form. Lurking below are several up-and-coming possibilities with sharp Sim trainers at the controls.<\/P>

The opportunity abounds here for a new horse to stamp himself a Grade 2 winner.<\/P>

In all the races I’ve covered for the BTB, I don’t recall ever seeing the top qualifier for a graded stakes race dismissed as the longest shot in the field. But, that’s exactly the situation we have here with the Super Gang’s<\/EM> THUNDER CRACKED<\/STRONG>, who will go to post at 19-1 despite topping this field with 226 stakes points. Some horses are hard to figure out, but this one is crazy. Who would have predicted that, after he won the Grade I Vermont Is 4 Lovers last February, that he would go winless in his next nine starts? But, that’s what has happened. After a second in the Florida Derby Lock, the Supers sent Thunder Cracked on the Triple Crown trail, and he just wasn’t up to snuff in those prestigious events. Thunder Cracked ran in all three Triple Crown races, and was off the board in all three. Maybe that’s what took a little bit out of this horse. It’s true that he’s managed a couple good finishes since the Sim TC, but his last two races are disasterous and that’s why we see such a high price here. His rotten form is crying out for a drop in class, but the Supers are convinced of the class of this horse and keep him in Grade 2. He’ll need a big turnaround to be anywhere near the leaders at the finish on Saturday. A turf debut may be the next move.<\/P>

Binzaman’s<\/EM> SISSON’S SUNDAY<\/STRONG> is another top qualifier in questionable form. This brown 4yo son of Any Given Saturday has 145 stakes points to qualify a clear second in here, but only goes off at 8-1. The similarities with the Super horse do not end there. Like Thunder Cracked, he’s on an extended losing streak (eight in a row). Like Thunder Cracked, this horse never has started on the turf. Like Thunder Cracked, this horse likes to break slowly and make one run. Like Thunder Cracked, he shows numerous poor races in his recent past performances. These two may be stabled next to each other, for all we know. Heck, they even have similar bankrolls. Sisson’s Sunday has earned $800,000 in his career, and Thunder Cracked $742,000. Binzaman is a proven Sim veteran of more than 13,500 starts and 1600 wins, so we’ll have to rely on his proven training acumen to get this horse turned around. The horse did run a respectable third two back in a Grade I, and has hit the board in three of his last five, but the current losing streak and that dismal 10th-place finish last out, beaten 15 lengths, hardly inspire confidence here. To sum up, a lot like Thunder Cracked.<\/P>

We get down to the third qualifying position before we find a horse who the California morning line oddsmaker deems worthy of favoritism. Waremblem’s <\/EM>HORATIO NELSON<\/STRONG>, a 6yo son of Touch Gold, will go to post as the co-favorite at 5-1. He’s got 117 stakes points, and is the last horse in the field with more than 100. We can see an interesting handicapping puzzle emerging here, as the ones at the top with the most proven class do not have the current form to back it up, and the other contenders are as yet unproven. Who will win out? In reviewing this horse’s past performances, it’s a little perplexing to see why the morning line oddsmaker decided he should be the co-favorite. After all, he’s lost five in a row, the last two defeats coming in the non-graded class. He inherited the lead at 2-1 in his most recent race against a field of only nine, but still managed to fade to fourth, beaten 11 lengths. Horatio Nelson has had a hard time finishing his races here lately, and needs a turnaround to jump up in class in this Grade 2. However, this race will be the second race back after a layoff, and Waremblem is showing confidence by jumping up to the Grade 2. It could be that he expects a big race out of his horse here Saturday. He’ll need one.<\/P>

Next is the other co-favorite, Ace’s<\/EM> ELUSIVE RIDGE<\/STRONG>, a 6yo son of Elusive Quality. Let us preface our comments here by noting that Ace is a chatroom buddy of ours, and so Elusive Ridge will enjoy a rooting section in the press box at the California track on Saturday. Unbiased professionalism goes out the window with this horse, who at least is showing some decent current form. He’s first and second in his last two. Now, it’s fair to argue that the horse might not have been able to earn his sharp current form if he had been racing at the graded level, as he will here on Saturday in a Grade 2. Elusive Ridge has tried graded racing three times in his career, and failed miserably all three times. However, he’s got a real shot to turn that around here Saturday and get his black type against a field which is clearly suspect. His preferred racing style also may give him a bit of a tactical advantage. Elusive Ridge tends to race a lot closer to the pace than the top two qualifiers, so he may find a favorable pace scenario on or near the lead. Now, whether a horse who’s never so much as hit the board in a graded race deserves to be the co-favorite in a Grade 2 remains to be seen, but excuse us for rooting for Miss Buffalo in the press box, anyway.<\/P>

Timmn’s<\/EM> EMPTY RIVER<\/STRONG> is the third choice at 6-1, and is another one like the top two who comes in here off a butt whupping. A 6yo brown son of Point Given, Empty River maybe got stuck in the locks and dam last out, when he was a dismal ninth, beaten 14 lengths in the Grade I Lone Star Classic. Also like Thunder Cracked and Sisson’s Sunday, Empty River carries an elongated losing streak into this race. He’s been beaten six in a row. We go clear back to April of last year to find this horse’s most-recent victory, and that in an allowance race, to boot. But, lest you think this horse does not have the class to compete here, go even farther back to June 2008, when Empty River won the Grade 2 Brooke Lynn Stakes. We now know that this horse is capable of winning at the class and distance. Another handicapping chip we’ll toss his way is that race two back, when he came running late to be a nice second this distance in a Grade 3. If he runs back to that race, we could see him make an impact in here in his fourth race back off a layoff. Timmn is showing he still likes this horse at age 6 by placing him in graded company.<\/P>

Trifecta players may want to take a long look at Highc’s <\/EM>ALEXAPPEAL TED<\/STRONG>, a 5yo frontrunning son of Awesome Again who has shown a propensity for hitting the board in the majoirty of his races, if not winning. Most of the time, Alexappeal Ted does not have quite enough left in the tank at the end of his races to go on for the win. This observation is validated by the sad evidence of only three wins in 37 starts. However, Alexappeal Ted suffered most of those defeats back when he was confined to sub-100 speed figures and conditioned allowance company. It was not until this had almost 30 starts under his belt that he finally broke the triple-digit speed figure barrier. You think Highc is glad he stuck with his horse, or what? He’s run six straight now in triple-digit land, and has taken off to become a regular stakes contender. This horse has the career record of a loser, but he’s a changed horse. He’s razor sharp right now and is proving out the kind of consistency you hope for in good Sim horses. Good for Highc on this fine colt and it will be interesting to see if he can run another good one with the jump in class.<\/P>

Pssssst ….. wanna tip? One of the greatest trainers in the history of Simulated horseracing has a 4yo by Storm Cat going off at a juicy 17-1 in a race I know in California. That’s right, Dixiedotco<\/EM>, the owner of a massive 375 total wins, ranking him seventh on the all-time list. Interestly enough, many of the top all-time winning barns are now consolidated under the Dixiedotco banner, under the flag of Pastures of Green racing. But, this horse here is from the original Dixiedotco barn. As you might expect from this all-timey great trainer, CRYSTAL CAT<\/STRONG> is a win machine. This is what this trainer does … win races. Crystal Cat goes off at a huge price in here despite a gaudy eight-for-20 career record. True, he has done his winning in allowance company, and takes the jump to graded company here. But, if Dixie says go, we have to believe the time is now. After all, Crystal Cat is indeed impeccably bred and may indeed be able to jump to graded class. If there were such a thing as finding horses trained by handlers like Dixie in real life, I would be betting at least a few quid. This horse has a lot to prove classwise, but seems worth a poke on his price and connections alone.<\/P>

DYNAMIC SHOW<\/STRONG> will break from the far outside at 7-1 for Jef’s Thoroughbred Club<\/EM>. The first thing you notice about this 5yo brown son of Dynaformer is his consistency. As might be expected from an outfit with an aggregate winning percentage of 17.2, Jef has found a way to be successful on a regular basis with this horse. In 33 career starts, he has 10 wins, along with six seconds and six thirds. That’s 22 for 33 on the board, and a 66 percent ITM is very good for any horse or trainer. Dynamic Show earns the jump from allowance success to Grade 2 company here off two straight victories. The latest was performed with an impressive speed figure of 112, the best of this horse’s career. It’s not an unreal expectation to think a horse might hit his peak in his 33rd start, but it’s a compliment to this thoroughbred club that they’ve taken care of this horse and made him capable of such a big effort as his career has gone along.<\/P>

That sharp, frontrunning place effort last out in a Grade 3 with a good speed figure seems to stamp THE BARBARIAN<\/STRONG> as an obvious contender for Galileo.<\/EM> We’ve got two similar horses in a row again here as The Barbarian bears a close resemblance to Dynamic Show. Both are 5yo horses by Dynaformer who have just turned in their lifetime-best speed figures. While Dynamic Show popped that 112 last out, The Barbarian improved to a very comparable 110 last out when second in that Grade 3. We could see another sharp, pacesetting effort out of The Barbarian here, who seems quite eligible to improve indeed. This horse has started only 22 times at age 5, and it looks like Galileo has kept a lot of gas in the tank with this one. That placing last out in the Grade 3 was a sharp improvement for this one, who just may be blooming as a new, better horse. Prior to that last race, The Barbarian never so much had hit the board in a non-graded stake. He’s sharp now and could really stake his place with a good race here.<\/P>

I’M BATMAN<\/STRONG> breaks down on the rail at 9-1 for Windham Hill Thoroughbreds.<\/EM> This 5yo son of Smart Strike is another confirmed frontrunner, so the pace is starting to look a little hotter in this race the farther down the qualifying list we go. The top few are deep closers, but a lot of these bottom-end qualifiers are frontrunning types so we could indeed have an honest pace in this race on Saturday. I’m Batman pressed the pace and faded in his only Grade 2 try, but does have a place effort in a non-graded stake on his resume to give him a little bit of class. He’s got something to prove classwise in graded company, and his current form does not exactly inspire confidence. The horse has run subpar races and below 100 in the speed figure department in two of his last three. Maybe he can catch a nice trip and break in front of these horses down on the rail, but if he doesn’t, it’s hard to imagine him passing horses in the lane against this bunch.<\/P>

Finally, we have OTTO CAUSES<\/STRONG>, who takes a significant class jump off sharp current allowance form for the Pierchinski Stables.<\/EM> Once again, we have another chatroom buddy to root for as we believe none other than Squirrel <\/EM>herself is calling the shots for the Pierchinski string these days. She’s got a lot of class horses in that she has taken over for Pierchinski, and Otto Causes is one of them. Tracy has this horse hitting very sharp right now, and it’s easy to see why this Trainer of the Year has seen fit to give him a shot in a Grade 2. After all, Otto Causes is no stranger to graded competition, although it’s been a while since he’s been at this kind of party. It was back in 2007 that Otto Causes won a Grade I. So, you have a ton of back class here and a horse who’s shown himself ready to compete at the top level again with that big 112 speed figure two back. He won with ease last out at even money and it’s time to see if he’s ready to earn at the graded level again. <\/P>

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!!<\/STRONG><\/P>

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Top qualifiers leave door open for upset<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":225,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7726","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/225"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7726"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7726\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7726"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7726"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7726"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}