{"id":7585,"date":"2009-12-18T14:54:41","date_gmt":"2009-12-18T14:54:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=7585"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=7585","title":{"rendered":"Topicount Special Brings Kentucky To Delaware"},"content":{"rendered":"

Perhaps the <\/SPAN>DPCD VIII Topicount Special (Grade I) should be reclassified as a Kentucky Local Bred contest, Eastern Division. Only four of the fourteen entrants are from outside the Bluegrass state, and all of them are foreign invaders (GB, ENG, AUS, and IRE). This year\u2019s Topicount spectacle, as always, is a mile and a half run on the dirt course, for all horses, three years and up. The track is expected to be dry and fast, if a bit on the chilly side. And a look at the horses by post position:<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/STRONG><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 1 \u2013 Silvergore(KY)<\/STRONG><\/SPAN><\/I>\u00a0 <\/SPAN>(Silver Deputy x Nureyev x Carson City)<\/I> \u2013 An awful lot to like about this four year old trained by bigarnie<\/I> (19.6% wins) <\/I>of the Jrogue<\/I> stables: He\u2019s fast:\u00a0 <\/SPAN>he\u2019s hit a 115 speed figure on dirt at this distance; he\u2019s consistent: 17 of his last 18 have been triple digit speeds, including his last 8 in a row; he\u2019s classy, having run consistently in a lot of Grade I races, from 10 to 14 furlongs; and finally, even as the favorite, 5\/1 here seems to offer some nice value. The possible downsides: This is a field with a lot of fast horses, including a couple of them who, like Silvergore, run best on or near the lead. Can he get the lead without generating suicidal fractions? He\u2019s run into that problem before, at both 10 and 14 furlongs, and paid the price with stretch collapses. If he gets his pace and is allowed to relax either on the front end or in a stalk, this guy is gold, not silver.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 2 \u2013 Taharka(KY)<\/STRONG><\/SPAN>\u00a0 <\/SPAN>(Medaglia D\u2019Oro x Dubai Millenium(GB) x Private Account<\/SPAN><\/I>) \u2013 A tactical stalker, this charge of Willyam47 (13.3% wins) <\/I>\u00a0<\/SPAN>from the Willyam13<\/I> stable group, is a monster in Grade III races, but has trouble up a couple of notches. In 6 lifetime GI tries, the only time in the money was, interestingly enough, a show check in this race last year. His other results: 9th<\/SUP>, 11th<\/SUP>, 5th<\/SUP>, 7th<\/SUP>, and 6th<\/SUP>. A good fit for these in style, but may not have enough to overtake some of the early speed or to outlast a couple of the stone closers here today. An honest, hardworking guy who\u2019s going to need the race of his life to cash a check in this field. Absolutely has a shot, but I\u2019d need to see him do it successfully in this company once first.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 3 \u2013 Vinfinity(KY) <\/STRONG><\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN>(Vindication x Roberto x Damascus)<\/SPAN><\/I>\u00a0 <\/SPAN>– For the longshot players, this is one intriguing colt. At first glance, he seems way out of his league with these horses based on his previous competition, and it\u2019s still possible he is. On the other hand, he has the look of a horse that hasn\u2019t come close yet to reaching his potential. He\u2019s 10 of 11 in the money (10 of 10 in routes), and most of his wins didn\u2019t even test him. Lenny1<\/I> (22.6% wins, a part of big-business Empire<\/I> fame) seems to have this scratch-bred flying to the top of his form, with his 2nd<\/SUP> highest lifetime speed fig last time out, in his first-ever stakes (albeit an ungraded overnight one). He\u2019ll be flying in deep stretch, and might make a profitable play in exotics. And at 22\/1, he\u2019s even tempting my money on his nose.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 4 \u2013 In House Slew(KY)<\/STRONG><\/SPAN>\u00a0 <\/SPAN>(Include x Chester House x Seattle Slew)<\/SPAN><\/I> \u2013 Well, umm\u2026 let\u2019s see. It\u2019s not often one sees a Grade I entry coming off of a $35,000 claiming race effort (and an unclaimed one at that) last time out. This 4 year old veteran of 48 races has raced with this class before, but the results have been less than stellar. In his last 5 graded races, he has been distanced once, and lost the others by 25+, 38+, 17.5, and almost 24, respectively. Greywolf9<\/I>, of the Wolf Den<\/I> group has saddled over 11% winners (11.4%)<\/I>, but this one\u2019s probably not going to improve that record.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 5 \u2013 Seven More Days(KY)<\/STRONG><\/SPAN>\u00a0 <\/SPAN>(Giant\u2019s Causeway(IRE) x Kris S. x Blushing Groom(FR)) –\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/SPAN><\/I>The good news for this fromtheu<\/I> (18.9% wins)<\/I> charge (another one from the Willyam13 group) is that this strapping 4 year old is 7-2-1 in 16 lifetime dirt routes, and is coming off of a sweeping come-from-behind convincing stakes victory at this same distance last time out. The bad news is it was an owner-restricted listed stakes race, and the last two Grade I races this guy has been in have been lack-luster, beaten by double-digit lengths each time. Definitely capable on his best day, but consistency at this level has proven elusive. I\u2019d wait to see more.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 6 \u2013 Chase The Sky(GB)<\/STRONG><\/SPAN>\u00a0 <\/SPAN>(Powerscourt(GB) x Conquistador Cielo x Raise A Native)<\/SPAN><\/I> –\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This elegant 5 year old from the trotter5<\/I> stable (16.5% wins)<\/I> rarely chases anyone. When he\u2019s on his game, he is either on the lead or right next to it. His last race, in the Breeder\u2019s Bowl, was textbook perfection, and if he is able to run back to it, none of these will be able to beat him. Period. The problem becomes, will he get the pace he needs without someone fighting with him to suicidal fraction?. He\u2019ll need to watch out for favorite Silvergore, longshot Jennings, and\/or contender Dance Steps to make sure none of them want to push the pace too hard. Chase The Sky has only one really effective gear, and if it\u2019s kicked in too hard too early, he\u2019ll be gassed by midstretch. But on his proper pace, he may be the most talented in this field.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 7 \u2013 Sports Guy(KY) <\/STRONG><\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN>(Awesome Again x Capote x Fappiano)<\/SPAN><\/I> \u2013 Super1\u2019s entry (17.7% wins)<\/I> (of the famous \u201cSuper Stables\u201d) is a hardworking and versatile 3 year old that may be in over his head here. Unlike, say, Vinfinity, Sports Guy has tried the Graded ranks and so far, come up short. That\u2019s not to say he doesn\u2019t stand to improve, maybe even enough to get a check in this kind of company, but until he makes that move up the foodchain, I\u2019ll hold off on this one.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 8 \u2013 Jedi Ransom(ENG) <\/STRONG><\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN>(Red Ransom x A.P.Indy x Theatrical(IRE))<\/SPAN><\/I> \u2013 This royally-bred 5 year old brought in by Lenny28 (25.2%) <\/I>is in many ways like his organization-mate Vinfinity. They\u2019re both stone closers, and neither may have hit his peak on dirt. Jedi has more than double Vinfinity\u2019s racing experience, but it\u2019s only in the last 6 races that this son of Red Ransom has discovered the dirt, and he\u2019s 4-1-0 in those last 6. One question though with the Jedi is his ability to get the full mile and a half. The farthest he\u2019s ever gone is 10.5f, although, in his defense, both were wins, so he may just have a yen to go longer. Will be chewing up ground right alongside of Vinfinity late. <\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 9 \u2013 Forty Short(AUS)<\/STRONG><\/SPAN>\u00a0 <\/SPAN>(Encosta de Lago x Rock of Gibraltar(IRE) x Riverman)<\/SPAN><\/I> \u2013 Helenus (11.4% wins)<\/I>, of the Goldsmith<\/I> group, saddles this Australian invader. Like most of the field here, this 4 year old with 34 races under his belt, has shown speed, although he seems to be stuck in a form rut, with well-beaten 5th<\/SUP> place finishes in his last three, all at different distances. If he\u2019s able to put his perfect race together, much like he\u2019s done at the open allowance level (115 speed fig, won going away), he\u2019s got a shot, but that\u2019s a big if.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 10 \u2013 Andrew John(KY)<\/STRONG><\/SPAN>\u00a0 <\/SPAN>(A.P. Indy x Sadler\u2019s Wells x Seeking the Gold)<\/SPAN><\/I> \u2013 Here\u2019s another who might be trying to rebuild his form, as his last two outings have been rough, to say the least, with a couple of 8th<\/SUP> place finishes in Graded outings. He does have the back class, and not that far back, having run a solid 3rd<\/SUP> in a Grade III three back, and before that, an even more solid 2nd<\/SUP> in the Grade I Smackdown 5. Both of those had this sonofaus (13.2% wins)<\/I> charge flying in from near the back of the pack to almost run down the winners. He\u2019s in a good fast group to do that again, but with this field he\u2019ll have to start his run a bit sooner, I would think. With a perfect run, this one\u2019s got a good chance to cash a check.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 11 \u2013 Jennings(KY)<\/STRONG><\/SPAN>\u00a0 <\/SPAN>(A.P. Indy x Sadler\u2019s Wells x Kingmambo)<\/SPAN><\/I> \u2013 This holy trinity of pedigree power\u00a0 <\/SPAN>brings another highly interesting longshot of a 3 year old colt, this one from the desperado5 stable (23.8% wins). Like Vinfinity, Jennings is a relatively inexperienced horse who\u2019s adapted very well to the dirt route (he\u2019s got 5 wins in 7 tries on dirt routes, and a perfect 4 wins in 4 trips on dirt over 10f), and he\u2019s not been recently tested very hard either. This will change on Saturday. The main difference between this horse and infinity is running style. Jennings loves to run in front, and with some of the speed here, the fear is being locked into a duel that\u2019ll wipe him out before the last turn. He has, two races back, shown that he can rate, and still win handily, but that was in an allowance, and when he was almost even money. There\u2019s still a lot to be learned about this colt, and a good deal of those answers will play out in this race. Unlimited ceiling, but a couple of really tough roadblocks.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 12 \u2013 Dance Steps(KY) <\/STRONG><\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN>(Seeking The Gold x Nureyev x Alydar)<\/SPAN><\/I> \u2013 When I first started handicapping this race, I kept trying to figure out why I wasn\u2019t picking this twofus2 (14.4% win)<\/I> horse (twofus <\/I>stable group) to win. He\u2019s the second-choice in the morning line (6\/1), he\u2019s got enough back class that he\u2019s won a couple of Grade I races, and he\u2019s speedy enough to have run a 116 speed fig at this exact distance. Then I came across this strange angle. And yes, it may in fact be one of the stupidest reasons I\u2019ve ever ruled out a horse, so bear that in mind when making your own wager: No other horse in this field has more places than wins. In fact, the other 13 horses have a 99:44 ratio of wins to places, or 2.25 to 1. Dance Steps\u2019 ratio is 5:8, or 0.625 to 1. This guy seems to run fast enough to just not win. He stalks, and sometimes he leads. He may, however, be the key to what the pace shakes out to be. Not gonna pick him to win, but he is likely to cash a check here.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 13 \u2013 Karma Police(KY)<\/STRONG><\/SPAN>\u00a0 <\/SPAN>(El Prado(IRE) x Pulpit x Rahy)<\/SPAN><\/I> \u2013 Another hardworking, if rather uneven producer in Graded races, who had no trouble in allowance races. Capable of decent speeds when needed, this redhill1 (16% wins)<\/I> trainee, from the Foto Finish group, will need to step it up to a career best to manage anything better than a middle of the pack finish. He\u2019s got versatile and tactical speed, and can press or close when needed, so pace probably won\u2019t be the issue. Running fast enough to beat some of these horses though, might be an issue.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 14 \u2013 This Calling(IRE)\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/STRONG><\/SPAN>(Sadler\u2019s Wells x Alydar x Buckpasser)<\/SPAN><\/I> \u2013 The far outside post doesn\u2019t seem to be an issue for this seasoned 4 year old, as he\u2019ll settle in towards the back of the pack early on anyways. Yet another closer here, he\u2019ll also be counting on a torrid pace up early for the first half of the race. Arse2007 (18.4 %wins) from the Black Label Stables group has this 4 year old on a bit of a run, speedwise, looking for his sixth consecutive triple digit speed fig, and although he\u2019s only had one win in those past 5, he has made four of them in the money. Nice chance for a nice paycheck.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

The Picks:<\/o:p><\/STRONG><\/SPAN><\/U><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

Morning Line: 1, 12, 6, 2<\/FONT><\/H1>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

Yoss Picks: 6, 1, 8, 5<\/FONT><\/H1>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

My picks:<\/o:p><\/STRONG><\/SPAN><\/U><\/I><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/STRONG><\/SPAN><\/U><\/I><\/P>

6 \u2013 Chase The Sky<\/STRONG> \u2013 able to sit just off the scorching pace, fly by the faltering leaders, and hold off the thundering closers<\/o:p><\/I><\/SPAN><\/P>

1 \u2013 Silvergore<\/STRONG> \u2013 Successfully fought off Jennings and Dance Steps, but didn\u2019t quite have enough to hold off the winner.<\/o:p><\/I><\/SPAN><\/P>

3 \u2013 Vinfinity<\/STRONG> \u2013 traffic and jockeying among the closers were just enough of a hassle to keep this colt from a huge upset. Fastest last quarter of the field isn\u2019t quite enough.<\/o:p><\/I><\/SPAN><\/P>

10 \u2013 Andrew John<\/STRONG> \u2013 Went when Vinfinity did, just wasn\u2019t quite as fast on it down the long stretch.<\/I><\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

4 Foreign Invaders Join 10 KY breds in Grade I DPCD VII Dirt 12f Tussle<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":392,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7585","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/392"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7585"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7585\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7585"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7585"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7585"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}