{"id":7536,"date":"2009-11-26T23:43:51","date_gmt":"2009-11-26T23:43:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=7536"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=7536","title":{"rendered":"Even Field in Sterile Mile"},"content":{"rendered":"

Only eleven starters will line up for this year\u2019s renewal of the Sterile Mile<\/I>, but it looms as a really good race, as evidenced by the early market. Want to back a roughie? Well, you\u2019d best look elsewhere, because the outsider of this field, Colorful Degree<\/B>, will return you just 12\/1, and, although stepping up in class, is racing in very good form. At the top of the Market, Alypoint<\/B>, is extremely backable at 9\/2. So, in a nutshell, if you think you can spot the winner, there\u2019s a handy payday awaiting, but finding that winner in such an even field is going to be a challenge.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

The Sterile Mile<\/I> is a time honored sim event, dating back to 2000. Hard times have seen the purse cut from $450,000 for each of the first nine runnings, to just $300,000 this year. Has that diminished the field quality? Top qualifier, Juillet Blues<\/B>, is ranked # 3 in the division at present, but then it\u2019s a drop to # 24 to Atlantic Bolt<\/B>, second on the order of entry. Both these runners are ranked in the three year old division. The favorite, Alypoint<\/B> at # 36 is the highest ranked older horse.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Anyway, one of these runners will join the honor roll for this event, which includes Duke Ali, Malt Capote, Full Volume<\/B> (who beat Volotile Nijinsky<\/B>), Kiki\u2019s Storm Opera, Holiday Hostage, Unprecedented, Arno Hollandia, Wooden Minister<\/B>, and last year\u2019s winner, Sahara Desert<\/B>.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Due to the very even feel of the overall field, and the fact that they are all established, quality dirt milers, I\u2019m going to put more stress on previous, recent Graded achievements than on raw speed numbers or strike rates, so apologies in advance to those runners with horses are doing wonderful things at lower levels, if you feel I\u2019m failing to give your charges full credit.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Let\u2019s get to that early market:<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

9\/2 \u2013 Alypoint<\/P>

5\/1 \u2013 Chalk Eater, Telesio<\/P>

7\/1 \u2013 Oishi<\/P>

8\/1 \u2013 Sisson\u2019s Gulch, Juillet Blues<\/P>

9\/1 \u2013 Trie Master<\/P>

10\/1 \u2013 Atlantic Bolt, Kenobi<\/P>

11\/1 \u2013 Power Ranking<\/P>

12\/1 \u2013 Colorful Degree<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Just a small aside before we look through the runners in betting order. In these times of heightened interest in State-bred racing, only the outsider in this field, Colorful Degree<\/B>, is not a Kentucky<\/st1:State><\/st1:place> bred. Now to business:<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

9\/2 \u2013 # 6<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Alypoint \u2013 <\/B>He\u2019s earned the top billing in the early market with a string of consistent triple digit speed ratings which encompass his last dozen outings. From about this time last year he strung three consecutive victories together, including the G2-Orangeton Handicap<\/I> in January. Since then he\u2019s won just two of seven, both allowances, but was second to Sisson\u2019s Gulch<\/B>, three runs back in the G2-Prims Memorial<\/I>. This is just his second run at the ultimate level, having run fifth here, but on affected ground, in the G1-Cosmopolitan<\/I> Handicap<\/I> last May. Telesio<\/B> finished in front of him there, and they meet again here. Hoofhearts<\/B> can come to the races with confidence this week, knowing the horse will likely run the trip in 1.34 or better. He\u2019s a last start winner and, once again, this scratchbred son of Point Given \/ Alydar \/ Graustark<\/I> will be a strong chance.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

5\/1 \u2013 # 2<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Chalk Eater \u2013 <\/B>If we thought Alypoint<\/B> had a handy string of triple digits (which he does), how do we measure this blokes? His last seventeen\u2026.that\u2019s right, seventeen, races have all resulted in triple digit speed ratings. My first question, given that half a dozen of them have been 110 or better, is; Why has it taken so long to advance to serious competition? Not only is this his first ever attempt at Grade 1 company, it\u2019s the first time he\u2019s faced any sort of Graded competition since his early three year old days. And therein lies the biggest ask when assessing his chances this week. Does he possess the class? A son of Kingmambo<\/I>, based on the multiple stakeswinning High Limit<\/B> (Seattle Slew \/ Summer Squall<\/I>), this four year old colt\u2019s record is not dissimilar to that of his progenitor, albeit with a (so far) inferior bank balance. With his undoubted talent, I\u2019d have expected to have seen him racing higher, sooner. But Chilimac<\/B> is the trainer making the decisions. If he handles the jump in class, he\u2019s got the speed to be in the mix.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

5\/1 \u2013 # 4<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Telesio \u2013 Socalman<\/B>\u2019s scratchbred son of Bernardini \/ Mr. Prospector \/ Nijinsky II<\/I> is yet another of the top fancies coming into this top quality event off achievements at a lower level. But at least this bloke has been mixing it with higher recently, and we have a better gauge into his class. It\u2019s of some concern that he\u2019s raced in Grade 1\u2019s half a dozen times, and that his best finish was third in The Cosmopolitan Handicap<\/I>, on rain affected Ground. However, perhaps a better guide comes from the G1-Smackdown<\/I> in August. On that occasion he ran fourth in a field of nineteen. Like the others highly regarded in early betting, he\u2019s coming to this with a string of triple digits in recent racing. In this case the number is ten, backing up the thought that all of these runners are consistent and capable. I\u2019m a tad worried with the overall Grade 1 figures, but we know he can run the time. He\u2019s won his last two (ungraded stakes and allowance), so he\u2019s in top form. A repeat of his run in the G3-The Chester<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> West Handicap<\/I> here in May, when he stopped the clock in 1.33.4, will see him right up there with the contenders<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

7\/1 \u2013 # 11<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Oishi \u2013 <\/B>They say that some horses reproduce their peaks at the same time each year. If that\u2019s the case, then the opposition needs to be very wary. In the last week of November, 2008, this colt went to Arizona<\/st1:place><\/st1:State> for an ungraded stakes race. Perhaps it\u2019s no big deal that he won it. But the fact that he won it in 1.32.8 is a very big deal. No other horse in this event has matched that effort, and it happened exactly one year ago. Like those we\u2019ve already covered, he\u2019s another with a mammoth string of consecutive triple digits, this runner\u2019s string stretching to sixteen. That\u2019s the good news. Very worrying for the stable and supporters is his Graded record. Back in March he ran an impressive second in the G3-Razorback Cap<\/I>, registering a 117 in defeat, but five other Graded tries have all been far from memorable. A son of Forestry<\/I>, he\u2019s the second Graded placed offspring of Fetti50<\/B>\u2019s talented broodmare Zia The Second<\/B> (Seeking the Gold \/ Alydar<\/I>), the other being Luciano<\/B> (Awesome Again<\/I>). There\u2019s no doubt he goes fast enough. But can he produce it at this level of competition?<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

8\/1 \u2013 # 7<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Sisson\u2019s Gulch \u2013 <\/B>We\u2019re getting down in the betting a tad, but certainly not down on quality. This runner boasts a Graded win in recent memory, the first horse we\u2019ve covered thus far to do so. It was back in July, in Sweden<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>\u2019s G2-Prims Memorial<\/I>, and he beat the favorite for this, Alypoint<\/B>, on that occasion. Unlike those ranked above him in betting, he doesn\u2019t enjoy a long, unblemished string of triple digit speed ratings. But there are excuses. We can hardly call 99 a failure, and the other was an unsuccessful experiment to see if he may want more ground. He\u2019s a son of Alderberan<\/I>, second foal of the multi (multi, as in 14) stakeswinning mare Gulch on the Gulch<\/B> (Danzig \/ Gulch<\/I>). Binzaman03<\/B> may be concerned with the possibility of the \u2018maturity curve\u2019 approaching as he\u2019s now had more than thirty starts, but he\u2019s Graded placed at his most recent run, and a repeat of the Sweden run will see him fighting for the trophy.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

8\/1 \u2013 # 9<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Juillet Blues \u2013 <\/B>This scratchbred three year old, carrying the blood of Gone West \/ Blushing Groom \/ Northern Dancer<\/B>, is the top qualifier for this race, and has earned that ranking with a pair of Grade 1 victories in this racing season. His successes both came in highly valued events, the first of which was the G1-California Derby<\/I>, a Bluegrass Derby<\/I> automatic entry feature. He didn\u2019t quite measure up to the Triple Jewel<\/I> races, but a let-up saw him resume as good as ever. He won a soft allowance on return, before the winning a Grade 1 at the prestigious Smackdown<\/I> meet, with Atlantic Bolt<\/B>, a contender in this, running fourth. But perhaps we should be concentrating on the most recent form. He ran only fourth at his most recent race. But fourth in what? The G1-Breeders Bowl Dirt Mile<\/I>. That was his first venture into open aged competition. The three who finished ahead of him are all older, and two of them have multi million dollar bank balances. He was beaten just over a length in one of the season\u2019s major events. He\u2019s more than established his class, won a couple of recent races at this trip and this Simsters4<\/B> colt arguably has the most upside of any runner in the field.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/B><\/P>

9\/1 – # 5 \u2013 Trie Master \u2013 <\/B>Although this <\/B>five year old has the weakest strike rate in the event, with just four wins from thirty, he also has one of the better recent achievements from his victory four starts back in the G3-Salvation Mile<\/I>. That New Jersey<\/st1:place><\/st1:State> feature was taken out in 1.33.6, a time which, if repeated, should be competitive here. He\u2019s also the owner of a fairly impressive string of double digits, with the only blemish in a dozen starts being a 99 in August. It\u2019s his long dry spells which cause concern. He\u2019s been know to go more than a dozen runs without winning, so we can\u2019t be confident he\u2019ll recover from his three most recent unplaced starts. A son of the underrated Mizzen Mast<\/I>, he\u2019s the best of four progeny of dual Grade winner Triestar<\/B> (Old Trieste \/ Seeking the Gold<\/I>). Goody5<\/B> has tried everything to get that winning rate up, even risking him for a tag at one stage. He\u2019s a recent Graded winner, so he deserves respect, but he\u2019s also unreliable and therefore probably not a betting proposition.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

10\/1 \u2013 # 1<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Atlantic Bolt \u2013 <\/B>Another three year old, his formline is arguably much stronger than his price might otherwise suggest. Like most of the runners here, his best is going to be good enough to make him a chance, but his best doesn\u2019t occur as often as we would hope, especially is we are considering supporting him with hard earned betting money. He\u2019s a Graded winner from earlier in the season, having taken out Ohio<\/st1:State><\/st1:place>\u2019s G2-Buckeye Derby<\/I> in May. That win was sandwiched between two Graded seconds, so he\u2019s established his class at Graded level. He won a mile stakes race two starts back, so his recent form also stands up to scrutiny. He\u2019s a son of Stormy Atlantic<\/st1:place><\/I>, from Wer Zuletzt Lacht<\/B> (Rahy \/ Lyphard<\/I>), the second foal of a Bigarnie<\/B> stakeswinner. His three prior attempts in Grade 1 have resulted in a fourth of seventeen, eighth of fourteen and eighth of ten, so he cannot be approached with confidence here. Like so many others, if this is to be his day, he\u2019s got the talent.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

10\/1 \u2013 # 10<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Kenobi \u2013 <\/B>A scratchbred son of Sky Mesa \/ Private Account \/ Riverman<\/I>, this colt hasn\u2019t won a route race since taking out his maiden at his second start. Having said that, he\u2019s won two races over seven and a half, including a stakes, from his last three runs, and his most recent Graded route attempt was worthy of a closer look. So let\u2019s revisit that particular race. In July, in California<\/st1:State><\/st1:place>, the G2-San Dimas<\/I> was held over eight and a half furlongs. This four year old colt ran second and registered a speed rating of 112. We\u2019ve mentioned already that he\u2019s won two races since, so overall the recent formline is none too shabby. On the other side of the coin; he\u2019s never contested a Grade 1 before and his last race resulted in a mid-field finish. I feel Hewett<\/B>\u2019s entry can safely be categorized with the majority of this field. The form isn\u2019t strong enough to inspire confidence, but if he\u2019s on his best game, he can give it a fair shake.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/B><\/P>

11\/1 \u2013 # 8 \u2013 Power Ranking \u2013 <\/B>The most lightly raced runner taking place in this event, it fair to say that he also the most scope for graduation to higher levels. He\u2019s had a couple of earlier tilts at Graded racing and, while not disgraced, has been unable to take home a trophy. But it may well simply be a matter of trying to fly too high, too early. Given his last couple of runs at a lower standard, he\u2019s certainly earned another attempt at the big time. Let\u2019s look at his last four, ignoring the eleven furlong failure. Four starts back he ran third in the G3-Colorado Sophomore Classic<\/I>. Then the \u2018race too far\u2019. Then wins at each of his last two. Last start he posted a 116 comfortably taking out an ungraded stakes race in New Jersey<\/st1:place><\/st1:State>. It goes without saying that a repeat of that speed rating will see him in the mix at the business end of this. Ticketman0<\/B> scratchbred this three year old, using the blood Awesome Again \/ Danzig \/ Secretariat<\/I>. It\u2019s a big step up to Grade 1 competition, but I feel there are shorter priced runners with less enticing formlines.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

12\/1 \u2013 # 3<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Colorful Degree \u2013 <\/B>If sim horses are allowed to have complex issues, then this runner is entitled to one. The bookies regard him as worthy of the least respect of any runner. His opponents are probably looking down their long noses and refusing to socialize, as he\u2019s the only one of their number not born in Kentucky<\/st1:place><\/st1:State>. But, all that aside, what are his chances? Overall, his formline is possibly a tad shy of the ideal Grade 1 preparation. He\u2019s had four previous tries at Graded competition, and while he\u2019s been unable to win, he\u2019s taken home a check in three of them. In fact, he\u2019s taken home a check in all but one of his seventeen starts. Ramo<\/B> bred this three year old colt by sending the part-owned maiden mare Senorita Color<\/B> (Mr. Greely \/ Bend Again<\/I>) to Dansili<\/B>. Her fourth foal, he\u2019s by far the most successful. I can\u2019t see him toppling a couple of those which are more respected in the market, but he\u2019s a last start winner and he\u2019s consistent. A top run will not surprise.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Summary: <\/B>While there are a couple of runners who, if they were successful, could be described as causing an upset, there is not a single runner incapable of putting in a winning effort. Which makes picking a winner something of a task. But, that\u2019s what we\u2019re here to do, so here goes:<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Juillet Blues<\/B> \u2013 Class\u2026Potential\u2026Class\u2026Great Value\u2026More Class<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Sisson\u2019s Gulch<\/B> \u2013 Consistent, and another representing betting value.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Power Ranking<\/B> \u2013 Plenty of upside and, once again, great value.<\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alypoint Heads New York Mile Market<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":453,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7536","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7536","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/453"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7536"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7536\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7536"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7536"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7536"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}