{"id":7505,"date":"2009-11-12T18:50:04","date_gmt":"2009-11-12T18:50:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=7505"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=7505","title":{"rendered":"10th edition of the Mistaken Soda Identity"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\t\t\t\tThis weekend’s running of the Mistaken Soda Identity will be it’s 10th edition.\u00a0\t\t\t\tThe winners 3 of the last 4 years have gone on to run in Bluegrass Oaks or Breeder’s\t\t\t\tBowl races, so stakes are high. There is no “Mistaken”, the winner this weekend\t\t\t\tcould form a real “Identity” in the sim.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tLet’s get on to the field…<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PP #1 – REALMS OF FEAR(KY)<\/td>\nOwner:<\/b> sdmf2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odds:<\/b> 8-1<\/td>\n\t\t\t\t\t(VALUE PLUS x GHOSTZAPPER x SAINT BALLADO)\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div Rank:<\/b> 63\t\t\t\t<\/td>\nCareer:<\/b> 6-3-1-1 $92,520<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\t\t\t\tComments:<\/b>
\t\t\t\tTied for highest last race SP (89), which was also a career high.\u00a0 Only “bad”\t\t\t\trace was 3 back in a 6f sprint in which she wasn’t able to set the tone early.\u00a0\t\t\t\tAll 3 wins have come from the front end.\u00a0 Moves inside the #7 hole for first\t\t\t\ttime in career.\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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PP #2 – OILILY JAYCEE(ENG)\t\t\t\t<\/td>\nOwner:<\/b> zeco9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odds:<\/b> 9-1<\/td>\n\t\t\t\t\t(MEDICEAN (GB) x DEPUTY MINISTER x RAISE A NATIVE)\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div Rank:<\/b> 295\t\t\t\t<\/td>\nCareer:<\/b> 7-3-1-1 $56,180<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\t\t\t\tComments:<\/b>
\t\t\t\t\tTied with #1 Realms of Fear as best last race SP (89). Has seen the SP go up each\t\t\t\tof the past 5 races. Horse was running overseas to begin it’s career, but has since\t\t\t\tmoved to the mainland America. First chance at 2-turns today, and running style\t\t\t\tshows it should like the added ground.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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PP #3 – RUN AND SLEW ME(KY)<\/td>\nOwner:<\/b> urcstables<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odds:<\/b> 23-1<\/td>\n\t\t\t\t\t(RUN AWAY AND HIDE x COASTAL x SEATTLE SLEW)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div Rank:<\/b> 202<\/td>\nCareer:<\/b> 4-2-1-0 $25,565<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\t\t\t\tComments:<\/b>
\t\t\t\t\tWinner of two straight after a near miss (head) loss at 8f.\u00a0 That loss came\t\t\t\tat this same Arizona track. Most recent win had this filly continuing to add distance\t\t\t\tbetween herself and second place, which is a good sign when adding the extra 1\/2f\t\t\t\there.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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PP #4 – TIZKAUF(KY)<\/td>\nOwner:<\/b> kauffmac3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odds:<\/b> 9-1<\/td>\n\t\t\t\t\t(TIZ WONDERFUL x DEHERE x MR. PROSPECTOR)\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div Rank:<\/b> 38<\/td>\nCareer:<\/b> 6-2-1-1 $87,310<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\t\t\t\tComments:<\/b>
\t\t\t\t\tMost recent graded stakes race was not be kind to this filly finishing a lackluster\t\t\t\t\t6th and also a 9 point drop in SP.\u00a0 Filly does own a race-high 90 SP after\t\t\t\t\ta strong closing performance two races back.\u00a0 Was last race a fluke or was\t\t\t\t\tit a sign of an early peak?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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PP #5 – FOREST FIRES T(FR)<\/td>\nOwner:<\/b> tek218<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odds:<\/b> 5-1<\/td>\n\t\t\t\t\t(WALK IN THE PARK (IRE) x FORESTRY x SAINT BALLADO)\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div Rank:<\/b> 11<\/td>\nCareer:<\/b> 6-4-0-1 $226,300<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\t\t\t\t<\/b>Comments:<\/strong>
\t\t\t\tMorning-line favorite gets the services of top jock W. Kewmwa. Filly has run in\t\t\t\tfour straight G2’s, winning two of them, both at 6.5f. Questionmark here is the\t\t\t\tadded distance.\u00a0 The last two losses were after some distance was added and\t\t\t\tshe was fading.\u00a0 So does adding an additional 1.5f’s help her?\u00a0 Playing\t\t\t\toff her father, this favorite might not have an easy ‘Walk in the Park’.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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PP #6 – IRISH ROOKIE(KY)<\/td>\nOwner:<\/b> claim2fame<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odds:<\/b> 15-1<\/td>\n\t\t\t\t\t(SUN KING x TIZNOW x DEPUTY MINISTER)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div Rank:<\/b> 111<\/td>\nCareer:<\/b> 6-2-1-0 $42,505<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\t\t\t\tComments:<\/b>
\t\t\t\t\tTook a big step last out moving into a G2 after a tight NW2L race two back. Clearly\t\t\t\t\tthe filly did not respond finishing 10th of 10.\u00a0 But she returns to what appears\t\t\t\t\ta more suitable distance.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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PP #7 – NOTABLE JAB(KY)<\/td>\nOwner:<\/b> lordbear3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odds:<\/b> 9-1<\/td>\n\t\t\t\t\t(CURLIN x NOVERRE (IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD)\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div Rank:<\/b> 262<\/td>\nCareer:<\/b> 6-1-4-0 $73,780<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\t\t\t\tComments:<\/b>
\t\t\t\t\tThis filly never finished worse than second until her latest forray into a G1 off\t\t\t\t\tan NW2L second place finish.\u00a0 She was overmatched here, but was passing tired\t\t\t\t\thorses towards the end, possibly showing that yet more distance might be to her\t\t\t\t\tliking. Fillies best running has been while staying in contact with the leaders.\u00a0\t\t\t\t\tMaybe trainer lordbear3 will try to revert back to that style this weekend.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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PP #8 – TAYLOR’S STORY(KY)<\/td>\nOwner:<\/b> deyoto3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odds:<\/b> 6-1<\/td>\n\t\t\t\t\t(DISTORTED HUMOR x HENNESSY x PRIVATE ACCOUNT)\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div Rank:<\/b> 126<\/td>\nCareer:<\/b> 4-3-0-0 $112,580<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\t\t\t\tComments:<\/b>
\t\t\t\t\tMorning-line second favorite coming off a second place 1\/2 length loss in the G1\t\t\t\t\tWalnut Tree. One of two horses to have already gone today’s distance. While this\t\t\t\t\tfilly has not posted an SP above 83 like some of her counterparts, it appears she\t\t\t\t\tcould be sitting on a big one today. Running style fits perfect for the added distances.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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PP #9 – JERSEY KATE(KY)<\/td>\nOwner:<\/b> latekick2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odds:<\/b> 11-1<\/td>\n\t\t\t\t\t(BERNARDINI x SUNDAY SILENCE x RAISE A NATIVE)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div Rank:<\/b> 279<\/td>\nCareer:<\/b> 5-1-1-2 $50,286<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\t\t\t\tComments:<\/b>
\t\t\t\t\tOne-time race winner has the bloodlines to run, but hasn’t had that signature performance\t\t\t\t\tto show she is ready to explode. Comes into today’s G3 off a second place in NW2L.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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PP #10 – WESTERLY BREEZE(KY)<\/td>\nOwner:<\/b> cozman19<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odds:<\/b> 11-1<\/td>\n\t\t\t\t\t(STREET CRY (IRE) x SAKHEE x GONE WEST)\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div Rank:<\/b> 127<\/td>\nCareer:<\/b> 3-2-0-0 $67,620<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\t\t\t\tComments:<\/b>
\t\t\t\t\tLighest raced filly in the race comes off a nice NW2L win. Ran in G3 two back and\t\t\t\t\tappeared to not care for the off-track but still finished a semi-interested 5th\t\t\t\t\tplace.\u00a0 Biggest last race SP jump in the field tells us that either she peaked\t\t\t\t\ta bit early or the best is yet to come.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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PP #11 – AIRBRUSHED(KY)<\/td>\nOwner:<\/b> munson<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odds:<\/b> 9-1<\/td>\n\t\t\t\t\t(SKY MESA x BROAD BRUSH x SPECTACULAR BID)\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div Rank:<\/b> 86\t\t\t\t<\/td>\nCareer:<\/b> 8-4-0-1 $61,960<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\t\t\t\tComments:<\/b>
\t\t\t\t\tOne of the veteran’s in the race today with 8 races under the belt. Really perked\t\t\t\t\tup with the added distance three races back, winning two of those. SP’s have been\t\t\t\t\tconsistent in those races and are on par with most in this field. The major concern\t\t\t\t\there is the speed. Does she have enough?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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PP #12 – BROKEN KEY(KY)<\/td>\nOwner:<\/b> putter<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odds:<\/b> 10-1<\/td>\n\t\t\t\t\t(BROKEN VOW x ROBERTO x KEY TO THE MINT)\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div Rank:<\/b> 45\t\t\t\t<\/td>\nCareer:<\/b> 6-2-0-1 $64,980<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\t\t\t\tComments:<\/b>
\t\t\t\t\tTook 5 races before going two-turns for the first time in last out, but it showed\t\t\t\t\tpositive results as the filly posted here best SP by far. The filly is definitely\t\t\t\t\tbattle tested having a pair of G2’s and G3’s. Filly looks to get out front and go\t\t\t\t\ta far as she possibly can.\u00a0 \t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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PP #13 – SOME PARTY(LA)<\/td>\nOwner:<\/b> isittrue<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odds:<\/b> 26-1<\/td>\n\t\t\t\t\t(ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ x BLACK TIE AFFAIR(IRE) x EXCLUSIVE RIBOT)\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div Rank:<\/b> 281\t\t\t\t<\/td>\nCareer:<\/b> 5-2-1-1 $47,988<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\t\t\t\tComments:<\/b>
\t\t\t\t\tZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ…oh sorry, nodded off there for a minute.\u00a0 Fillies dad\t\t\t\t\thas arguably the best name in the race but filly has yet to run two-turns. Did\t\t\t\t\tshow some life last out posting a career-high SP. Unfortunately, the overall SP’s\t\t\t\t\tshow the filly needs to wake up.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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PP #14 – GRAND MOM(KY)<\/td>\nOwner:<\/b> graywolf8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Odds:<\/b> 13-1<\/td>\n\t\t\t\t\t(SUAVE x GRAND SLAM x DIXIELAND BAND)\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Div Rank:<\/b> 24 <\/td>\nCareer:<\/b> 9-3-0-2 $92,804<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\t\t\t\tComments:<\/b>
\t\t\t\t\tThis ‘Grand’ filly is the “Grandma” of the race having run a race-high 9 races.\t\t\t\t\tWinner of three races with most recent coming at 8f. G2 two races back was also\t\t\t\t\ta nice effort. Another of those “catch me if you can” fillies, but has shown the\t\t\t\t\tstrength to go all the way at a distance.\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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Sledge’s Analysis:<\/u><\/b>
\t\t\t\tThe thing I am looking for here is the horse who has not peaked prior to this race.\u00a0\t\t\t\tThe filly needs to be running on the upscale, but hasn’t quite showed everything.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tThat horse for me is Taylor’s Story<\/b>. You ask yourself…”She’s won 3 of 4 races, how\t\t\t\tcan she not have shown everything?”\u00a0 True, she has won 3 of 4 races, but her SP’s\t\t\t\thaven’t had that huge bump up that shows up when a horse finally hit it’s stride. Those\t\t\t\ttypes of races are usually followed by a leveling out or a “bounce” (negative drop)\t\t\t\tof the SP.\u00a0 A prime example of the “bounce” is Tizkauf<\/b>, while\t\t\t\t\ta “leveling out” effect has been shown by morning-line fav Forest Fires T<\/b>\t\t\t\twere she had that big-time\t\t\t\tjump in SP, then the next race she drops 9 points.\u00a0 \t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tHorses that fall into the\t\t\t\tcategory of horses who peaked and are due for\t\t\t\ta level-ing off or bounce are Realms Of Fear<\/b>, Oilily Jaycee<\/b>, Jersey Kate<\/b>, Westerly Breeze<\/b>\t\t\t\tand Broken Key<\/b>.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tDoes this mean any of those horses can’t win this race, certainly not.\u00a0 But\t\t\t\ti’m looking at the trends.\u00a0\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tTo round out the exacta and triple, i’m looking at Forest Fires T<\/b> to hang on for\t\t\t\tsecond, while closers Tizkauf<\/b> and Notable Jab<\/b> fight it out for third.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tLongshot Alert:<\/b> Westerly Breeze<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tGood luck to everyone!!<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Every ‘Forest’ tells a ‘Story’.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":390,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7505","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/390"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7505"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7505\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7505"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7505"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7505"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}