{"id":7462,"date":"2009-03-26T21:31:22","date_gmt":"2009-03-26T21:31:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=7462"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=7462","title":{"rendered":"the Grade II Nikki Show"},"content":{"rendered":"

PP1 ROADHOUSE BLUES 5\/1 twinoaks- 47-11-6-4 (1.03mil)<\/o:p><\/B><\/P>

Starting us out this week in the number one post we have a six year old scratch bred son of Java Gold out of an Unbridled mare.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He is making his eleventh graded stakes start of his long career.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It has been a while since he has been competitive with graded company, but still can run.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He last won a graded stakes race in November of 07, so it has been a while.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He still can win a stakes race, but his best days are in the past and he is going to have trouble with this field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Can handle the distance, but eleven furlongs is probably his preferred distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If he doesn\u2019t fire the distance will not be to blame.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>When he is firing he is a closer, but not necessarily from a mile back.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If he is running he should be about eight back and will be running late.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If he doesn\u2019t fire he will be eleven back and stay there.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has had enough talent in the past to win this, but I am not sure he still has it in him.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/P>

Predicted finish: <\/B>4th<\/SUP>, has a shot but must wake up the echoes.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/P>

Pace: <\/B>deep closer, but won\u2019t be way way back.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP2 DANZA MCABRA(KY) 19\/1 shadowclaw- 16-7-3-0 (127K)<\/o:p><\/B><\/P>

In the two hole we have another scratch bred, this being a four year old son of Theatrical out of a Gone West mare.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>One of the least experienced horses running this week with only sixteen career starts.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This young guy has gotten faster as the races have gotten longer, but his career best speed figure of 102 might not be enough.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The real question is whether this is an improving horse, or \u2018what you see is what you see\u201d.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The answer I think is most likely the later.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is a horse that will win a lot of long stakes races, but I just do not see many graded wins coming.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Just a step below the very best.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Should show some early speed and to have a shot he must steal it.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He needs to get away by his lonesome by five to even think about having a shot at a win.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/P>

Predicted finish: <\/B>6th<\/SUP>, middle of the pack finish.<\/P>

Pace: <\/B>Should be and needs to be all alone out front to have any shot, the only real speed here this week.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP3 GAI(KY) 8\/1 tulloch- 25-4-5-4(597K)<\/o:p><\/B><\/P>

Next up we have a very nice lady that is a five year old daughter of Cryptoclearance out of a Sadler\u2019s Wells mare (D-rated).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>GAI <\/B>is coming off a monster second place performance last time out when she fired a by far career best 110 speed figure.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>To assume she follows that up with a similar performance is wishful thinking.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is a quality horse that belongs with the boys, but she will bounce this week.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The last race was a perfect set up for her with a freak speedball setting up the closers (I know this because the freakish speedball is mine).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her best distance seems to be shorter than this race, and has not broken 95 going longer than twelve furlongs.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>With three second place finishes in her last four races she certainly could hit the board, but I think a bounce of epic proportions could be in order this week. <\/P>

Predicted finish: <\/B>9th<\/SUP>, Too long with a bounce is going to make this an ugly week.<\/P>

Pace: <\/B>Deep closer, will be coming from the clouds late if she fires. <\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP4 CENTO(ENG) 7\/1 twinoaks- 18-5-6-2(138K)<\/o:p><\/B><\/P>

In post number four we have a late blooming four year old son of rainbow Quest out of a Woodman mare (F-rated).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This guy decided to wait until his ninth start before breaking his maiden, but has been getting better as the races have gotten longer.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is not unusual with a Rainbow Quest.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has had one crack at graded company which did not end well getting beat by fourteen.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That race was at eleven furlongs which actually might be a bit short for him.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This race could be too short as I think he is a 16 furlong guy personally.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The one thing that stands out is he has never finished worse than second in a race longer than twelve furlongs.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His career best 103 speed figure is not eye popping, but he consistently cranks out the 102\u2019s and threes.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I am not sure he can run big enough to win, but a top three would not be unrealistic.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Another deep closer that could be 20 back early, and will be flying home the last half mile and will be in the mix at the end.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/P>

Predicted finish: <\/B>3rd<\/SUP>, Not great but consistent at this distance<\/P>

Pace: <\/B>\u00a0<\/SPAN>Deep closer, will need a second pair of binoculars to see in the field. <\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP5 HIGH SPEED QUEST(IRE) 9\/2 pegasus- 31-8-8-5(719K)<\/o:p><\/B><\/P>

The regally bred six year old son of High Chaparral and a rainbow Quest mare (C-rated) is next in the five hole.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This guy is another late bloomer that has really only stared to hit his stride in the last eight months or so.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His career best 110 speed figure is plenty good along with several over 105.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has had two previous graded stakes runs winning one of them.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has not raced at this distance before, but won for fun last time out at 14 furlongs so the distance is not an issue.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Of all of the horses in this race he is the most flexible.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He can close or stay close if the pace is soft.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Even if the pace is hot (I don\u2019t think it will be) he will not be too far out of it.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He looks poised to run a monster this week and is deserving of the morning line second status.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN>I love this horse in this spot.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/P>

Predicted finish: <\/B>1st<\/SUP>, nothing not to like about this guy this week<\/P>

Pace: <\/B>Varies, could be anywhere, but should be in a semi-stalking position four or five back.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP6 DASSAULT(KY) 3\/1 tenpins- 37-14-4-3(578K)<\/o:p><\/B><\/P>

Next up we have a five year old scratch bred son of Ouragan out of a Dehere mare.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This guy has a pattern if you want to look for it.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The fact is he wins every other race, and he did not win the last race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>So he wins this race right?\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Not so fast my friend.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He is the morning line favorite and deserves to be so, but he has never run this long before.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has won at 12 furlongs several times, but I really think his best distances are in the 9-11 range, but his class gets him longer.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This guy has two graded stakes wins under his belt and has a career best speed figure 114 two races ago speaks for itself.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Another deep closer, but will not be real far back.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If he gets more than ten back the race is over for him.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In the past when he gets further then ten back he just keeps backing up and I don\u2019t see that changing this week.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I don\u2019t think he wins this week, but it would not surprise me one bit if he did. <\/P>

Predicted finish: <\/B>2nd<\/SUP>, probably the best horse in the race this week, but a bit longer than he wants to go.<\/o:p><\/SUB><\/P>

Pace: <\/B>Closer, will be moving late if he moves.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP7 CHRIST<\/st1:PlaceName> CHURCH<\/st1:PlaceType><\/st1:place>(KY) 5\/1 kevoman3- 11-7-1-0(504K)<\/o:p><\/B><\/P>

In the seven post we have the very lightly raced four year old scratch bred son of Dynaformer out of Forty Niner mare.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Having only eleven starts make this guy the rookie of the field, but he can run, make no mistake about that.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This will be his fourth graded start, winning his first try and not coming close in the last two.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The problem he has had is he just gets too far back and doesn\u2019t get going until it is much too late.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He could be 22 or further back in this race regardless of the pace.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It will not be a very hot pace so he coming from the clouds style sets up pretty poorly in this race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He needs a hot pace to have a shot and he is simply not going to get it.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is certainly a horse on the improve and is getting better, but I just do not like the set up.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Heck I will say he is a breeder\u2019s Bowl horse right now, but that counts for nothing this week.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Needs to be much closer to have a shot this week, but has never shown the ability to do that. <\/P>

Predicted finish: <\/B>7th<\/SUP>, Will start running about the time the race is over.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Wrong style for this race set up<\/P>

Pace: <\/B>Deepest of the deep closers, will be 20+ back early.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP8 PATITO(KY) 9\/1 usoz- 25-5-4-5(127K)<\/o:p><\/B><\/P>

Next up we have a four year old son of Unbridled\u2019s Song out of a Sadler\u2019s Wells mare (A-rated).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is an interesting horse.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He runs decent enough speed figures, he can make this distance easy, but he simply can not win a stakes race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The fact that he has not won a stakes race and not he has to tangle with this crowd is a problem.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>There is a good chance he is in just a bit over his head.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has a career best speed figure of 105 (twice), but I doubt that is going to be enough.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has done nothing to indicate he has a break out performance in him after twenty five starts.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>And we have yet another deep closer that could be twenty back early.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I think he drops back early and that is where he will stay.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Of the closers, he is not close to the best and there just will not be any tired front runners to pass.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This guy needs to win some stakes races before he can be considered in a race like this.<\/P>

Predicted finish: <\/B>8th<\/SUP>, needs some early speed and a softer race for it to end well.<\/P>

Pace: <\/B>Deep closer will be way back early and may just stay there.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP9 GRAND VICTORY(IRE) 6\/1 lasthope- 20-10-3-2(286K)<\/o:p><\/B><\/P>

Lastly we have a four year old son of Montjeu out of a Kris S. mare (A-rated).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Another royal bred horse out of an outstanding mare.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This will be his fourth career graded start with one win and two not closes, losing by 10+ in both.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I know this will shock you, but we have another deep closer to deal with.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Although he has shown the ability to be close if the pace is soft.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I would expect him to be ten back early, it would not be surprising if he was near the lead in a stalking position.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The pace in this race should be at a crawl, and there is a chance he could get the jump on the horses that will be in another zip code half way through.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He is not the best horse here this week, but the set up does give him a fighting chance at a win if he can stalk what should be pedestrian early fractions.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If he can duplicate the 109 he ran two back, he could win this race. \u00a0\u00a0<\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN><\/P>

Predicted finish: <\/B>5th<\/SUP>, but has a real shot with the pace scenario.<\/P>

Pace: <\/B>Closer, but would not be shocked to see him stalking this week. <\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/B><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/B><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/B><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/B><\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

land of the rising sun sees nine turf marathoners take the start<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":297,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/297"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7462"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7462\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}