{"id":7350,"date":"2009-03-05T18:19:27","date_gmt":"2009-03-05T18:19:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=7350"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=7350","title":{"rendered":"GRACEPOINTE PRAYER gets his feet wet"},"content":{"rendered":"

By ITCH<\/STRONG><\/P>

Will this be the day?<\/P>

Pazjazz’s<\/EM> GRACEPOINTE PRAYER<\/STRONG>, winner of multiple California Grade I races, seeks a return to form in the Grade 2 Saints Handicap<\/STRONG><\/EM> going nine furlongs over a sloppy main track in New Orleans. This uber-classy son of Cryptoclearance remains in the Top 20 of the route division for older horses, but at age 6, has found racing to be a struggle of late. A true champion, Gracepointe Prayer has been suffering the ignominies of age. He never has been so insulted as in his race three back, when an improbable ninth of 12 in a simple non-graded stake. At one time, Gracepointe Prayer was capable of outrunning the best the Sim had to offer. Now? We cannot be so sure. GP enters the Saints Handicap in the throes of a seven-race losing streak. What might shake the horse up? How about his first-ever race on an off track? Believe it or not, every single one of GP’s 39 career starts have been on a fast main track. The horse never has been on the grass. The horse never has raced on anything but a fast main track. Amazing, really. So, at age 6, we’ll learn something new about one of the Sim’s best: Is GP a mudder?<\/P>

We already know the answer to that question about the No. 2 qualifier, Unreal’s<\/EM> KITTEN NO MORE<\/STRONG>. Lightly raced, Kitten No more has started only 17 times in his career. Four of those starts were on off tracks, and three were wins! This horse loves the mud, as shown last out when romping home by three and a quarter in a non-graded stake, earning a vastly improved speed figure of 114. After running three straight races under 100, that good, old squishy feeling under Kitten’s hooves proved a panacea. A temporary spate of bad form was reversed on a sloppy Mexican track, and the horse comes right back in the slop here at his favorite distance. Kitten No More is a Grade I winner, and the big score came at Saturday’s distance, nine furlongs. Kitten No More won the Haskell last year, then went on to prove he’s not a Grade I horse at 10 furlongs, suffering bad beatings in the Travelers and Windy City Gold Cup. Those bad races seemed to bring on the recent bit of bad form from which Kitten seems completely recovered now. The horse catches things his way here. It’s his best distance and a sloppy track. Expect a good one.<\/P>

Like Gracepointe Prayer, Waremblem<\/EM>‘s MANIUS THE MIGHTY<\/STRONG> also is having his mud maiden broken at a late stage in life. In a very similar scenario, Manius the Mighty also is 6 years old, and also has caught a fast main track for an inordinate amount of career races: 34. Considering his breeding (Kingmambo X Seattle Slew X Alleged), one might hazard a guess that Manius may indeed love the wet stuff. The softer going may help the horse, who apparently has developed some problems. Increasingly in his career, Manius the Mighty has become a hit-or-miss horse. Of his past eight starts, five were absolute, up-the-track clunkers, including a dismal, last-place effort last out in the Grade I Glenn Handicap. But, included in that group of eight races are three wins. Hence, the all-or-nothing description. So, which will it be on Saturday? All or nothing? The horse is perfectly capable if he feels like running. He’s won multiple graded races at this exact distance. The sloppy track throws in a major X factor, as you usually do not see a horse making his off-track debut this late in his career, let alone by two in the top three of a Grade 2.<\/P>

Ironmike’s<\/EM> IRON BOCK<\/STRONG> is getting good respect from the morning line oddsmaker at 7-1 despite missing the board in three straight races. This 5yo light gray son of Grand Slam is a speedy sort, and does his best work when he can gain control of the early pace. In these last three, instead of making the lead, Iron Bock has been beaten to the front and forced to settle into a pressing position. There cannot be a more difficult trip in racing than the frontrunner who does not get to the front. There’s no relaxing when there’s another horse in his eye early, and Iron Bock was not able to hit the board in any of his last three. It will be to this horse’s benefit if he can make the lead here, and we see that the top three all like to come from behind. So far, so good from a pace standpoint for this nice horse, who is well established at this class and distance. Iron Bock owns two Grade 2 wins going nine furlongs, and that’s the game he’s playing here Saturday. The oddsmaker gives him a good chance, and maybe we should, too. The pace scenario appears favorable.<\/P>

Speaking of respect from the morning line oddsmaker, our next horse is the favorite at 6-1. That’s pretty good, stealing the thunder as favorite in a Grade 2 all the way down in the fifth qualifying position. Yet, that’s the honor bestowed upon Doza<\/EM>‘s SUNDAYS RULE<\/STRONG>. Maybe the oddsmaker is a fan of the trainer, and who could blame him? Doza is one of the Sim’s sharpest, coming from behind to press Kaif late in last year’s STC contest. That episode aside, Doza has been a spectacular winning trainer over more than 8,500 starts with 13 barns. The aggregate win percentage is just a notch below 20 percent, at 19.9 percent, and seven of Doza’s 13 barns have win percentages over 20 percent. This guy knows how to win races and usually spots them right, so we have to believe Doza when he says Sundays Rule is ready to make the jump from allowance races to Grade 2. The last two times Sundays Rule tasted graded competition, he got his fanny tanned. Sundays Rule was a well beaten eighth and ninth in a Grade 3 and Grade I, but before that captured a Grade 2 at this distance. The horse has run well in the past on an off track, and Doza must be hoping that this horse still is capable of graded production at age 6. Even with a great trainer at the controls, we have to think the oddsmaker has overrated this horse’s chances of winning.<\/P>

Wonder what has gone wrong with the No. 6 qualifier? 88stud’<\/EM>s A PRAYER<\/STRONG> has fallen into absolutely horrendous form. The horse carries an ugly four-race clunker streak into this Grade 2. Something is definitely amiss with this brown 5yo son of Crafty Prospector. A Grade 2 winner at this distance, A Prayer has fallen off the map. He’s been beaten a combined 63 and one-half lengths in his last four starts. His car has a flat tire, or something. A drop in class might help him out. After all, the horse only has two career victories in 25 starts. After all of his travels competing in graded company, this horse remains eligible for an n2x allowance, and might do well to be returned to those conditions to reset his confidence. This horse’s head has to be spinning now, as he basically is refusing to run in his last four. He’s dismissed as a longshot at 19-1, and about the only encouraging word you can say about the horse is that the sloppy track might wake him up. His Grade 2 score was over an off track, and maybe the squishy going will restore the will to these apparently aching feet.<\/P>

In a tribute to alphabetical order, B MINUS<\/STRONG> follows A Prayer. It’s our good buddy Nextbonus<\/EM> at the controls of this 5yo son of Gone West. We first covered this horse last summer, when he was taking a shot in the Grade I Michael Strike. Up to that point, B Minus never had missed the board in 10 career starts. Then, Nextbonus took some advice from chatroom buddy Squirrel, and moved up to Grade I. When B Minus checked in fifth in the Michael Strike, it was the first time in his life he had missed the board. Despite that loss, B Minus has continued to develop and remains a model of consistency. In 19 career starts now, he’s missed the board in only three. Unfortunately, one of those took place last out in a startling disappointment. B Minus was only running in a restricted allowance for horses 5yo and up no less, and still managed only a fourth as the 5-2 favorite against a weak field. However, one might hazard a guess with his placement here in a Grade 2 that it was only a prep for Saturday. Bill still has confidence in the horse, as shown by his entry here, so we have to expect that he is still good to go. There should still be plenty of gas left in the tank for this 5yo, who makes only his 20th start here.<\/P>

BARB’S HOT COCOA<\/STRONG> is next for bbudgies’ Coastal Lodge<\/EM>. This 5yo roan son of the Irish sire Manndar is another one of those Sim distance-switch anomalies. Here again, we have a horse bred for turf top to bottom, who is better on the dirt. With Theatrical as the DS and Woodman the DDS, it’s no wonder that the original owner assumed he was getting a turf horse. Barb’s Hot Cocoa ran on the lawn for his first 10 career starts, of which he only won one. By that time, he did not look like he was much of a horse. He ran three straight poor races at the entry-level allowance condition, and the original owner had seen enough. He dropped Barb’s Hot Cocoa all the way down for a $5,000 tag and watched him go. Even as he improved some, the horse passed from barn to barn until he finally landed with bbudgies, who picked him up in a $10,000 claimer. As soon as he entered bbudgies’ care, a transformation took place. A horse that, up to that point, had never run so much as a 100 all of a sudden ran nothing but. A long string of 14 straight races in the triple digits was broken last out, when Barb’s Hot Cocoa could manage only a 98 in a ninth-place finish in a non-graded stake. This horse is in poor current form, with two bad ones in a row now. He hardly inspires confidence in a Grade 2, but he’s a nice story nonetheless and a terrific claim.<\/P>

If SEEK THRILLS<\/STRONG> can ring the bell at 16-1, Topicount <\/EM>may officially begin to consider this writer as her BTB good luck charm. Just last week, we covered her NEVER QUIT’s emergence in the Fountain of Ute. That horse now is officially on the Triple Crown trail after an impressive run in Florida. Can Seek Thrills pull a similar heist here in Louisiana? The 4yo brown son of Vindication makes only his 17th career start here. This will be the second graded stake of his life, as he’s competed mostly in non-graded stakes and allowances to this point. The sloppy condition of the racetrack is a definite concern, as the only time the horse ran in the off going before was in a Grade I flop. Now, the class of that race may have had as much or more to do with his dismal finish that day, but the similarities between Saturday’s race and that failed Grade I try are a bit alarming. Once again, Topicount takes a shot at graded competition with this horse, and once again the track comes up wet. At 16-1, the morning line oddsmaker clearly feels you’re going to see another ugly racing line in this horse’s pp’s, but you never know what wonders Topicount’s BTB good luck charm may bring.<\/P>

Gaius Julius Caesar Augustus Germanicus, known to the world by his nickname, Caligula, ruled the Roman Empire for four years. Maverick <\/EM>pays tribute to one of history’s most notorious perverts with CALIGULA’S RULES<\/STRONG>, a late-running 5yo son of Roman Ruler. He only finished fourth last out in the Grade I Glenn Handicap, but that race really works in his favor because he defeated two of his rivals here in that race. Iron Bock was fifth, a length and a quarter behind Caligula’s Rules, and Manius the Mighty was way, way back in last, more than 20 lengths behind Caligula’s Rules. In this writer’s experience, the notation “just beat these” is as strong a handicapping factor as any. Of the three horses exiting the Glenn Handicap, this one is the best. He’s got an advantage over at least two horses in this race. Also working in Maverick’s favor here is the fact that his horse should love the slop. Caligula’s Rules has run multiple good races on a wet track, including the best speed figure of his life. That was the 112 he earned when second going 10 furlongs four back in a non-graded stake. This horse has missed the board every time he’s tried graded competition. If he’s ever going to be able to do it against these, a sloppy track might be the best chance. Also, that up-close fourth last out suggests this horse is becoming more competitive with graded types. <\/P>

Jrogue’s<\/EM> MR. SKIDMORE<\/STRONG> is dismissed as the longest shot in the field at 23-1 off a dull ninth-place finish last out in a failed turf experiment. But, lest we get too caught up in that race, let’s observe that it only confirms that Mr. Skidmore is not a turf horse. He’s been off the board in his last four on the lawn. Got it. When handicapping a horse like this, (ie, a longshot) we’re looking for any reasons to include the horse. We’re inclined to give excuses for bad races and draw a line through them. Let’s do that with this horse. Let’s draw a line through that turf race, and another through a 14-furlong distancing four back. Now, with the remaining races, we have a horse whose form is not all that bad. He won a stake three back, and was third in two others. Granted, those were non-graded races, and he steps up to Grade 2 here, but those good late-running finishes could persuade us to put this horse on the bottom of trifecta tickets.<\/P>

Willyam<\/EM> draws way down on the rail with DHARMA INITIATIVE<\/STRONG>, a very late-running 4yo by Mineshaft. They’re going to take back and make one run with this horse, who fairly walks from the gate in his races then tries to pass them all. Despite qualifying all the way down here in 12th and possessing a running style that does not exactly court consistency, it says here that Dharma Initiative could have an impact on this Grade 2. The horse fairly exploded last fall, when he ran an astonishing 118 when winning a non-graded Mexican stake going 8.5 furlongs. Prior to that, the best number the horse had managed was only a 102, and mostly got 90s in his races. That had to be a very gratifying update for Willyam in October, when he saw what a huge number his horse had earned. He’s backed that up with two more triple-digit figures, but has not replicated the win. The horse obviously has talent, and has the graded back class, having hit the board this class earlier in his career. If you see him appear on the race viewer at any point late in the race, watch out. He’ll be flying.<\/P>

Our penultimate qualifier is the second half of the Topicount<\/EM> entry, the wet-track specialist, ALDERAAN.<\/STRONG> This 7yo son of Aldebaran is yet another shining example of the training acumen of Topicount. She knows the horse loves an off track. Guess what? He’s raced on an off track in five of his last six. Now, Topicount finds Alderaan yet another off track, although she has to come up to Grade 2 to do it. Whether this horse is capable of taking advantage of his preferred surface at this class is a serious question, especially at his advanced age. Throughout his career of 53 races, Alderaan has alternated between allowances and non-graded stakes, only once trying a graded race. That was a Grade I humbling very early in his career. Alderaan has gone a long time without trying a graded race and he’s giving it a shot here. Classwise, Alderaan is being asked a lot here. He’s struggled somewhat even in non-graded company, but it must be said, his best stakes races all were on the wet track. The slop moves him up, but by how far?<\/P>

Finally, we have Whirlaway’<\/EM>s TRIUNE<\/STRONG>, another wet-track specialist whose trainer is hoping will be carried up the class ladder by the off going. In 46 career races, never once has Triune tried graded company, until now. This 6yo son of Storm Cat must be considered a wet-track specialist, despite that he is only one for 13 lifetime on an off track. Mostly, Trine likes to run second on the wet stuff. He’s been the place horse no fewer than eight times on a wet track. A second-place finish here would be ideal, but like Alderaan, this horse is hoping for a lot classwise because of the off track. He moves up in the wet stuff, but probably not enough to contend with Grade 2 horses in his 47th career start. <\/P>

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!!!!<\/STRONG><\/P>

\u00a0<\/P>

\u00a0<\/P><\/FONT><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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