{"id":732,"date":"2005-09-28T23:42:42","date_gmt":"2005-09-28T23:42:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=732"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=732","title":{"rendered":"They All Have the Credentials to Win"},"content":{"rendered":"

By October, two-year-olds are not quite the blank slates they were for much of the year.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The fourteen youngsters vying for the $150,000 Grade III Flying Saucer Stakes, one of two graded stakes on the Ontario<\/st1:place><\/st1:State> card, include many that have tried both surfaces, some with route experience, and even some with graded stakes experience.<\/P>

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Today\u2019s race is a mile on the turf.<\/P>

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A key race leading up to this one may well be the Grade III Omnipotent Juvenile Stakes, as three of those runners, including the winner and morning line favorite Storm Tapper<\/B> are entered here.<\/P>

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Today\u2019s race may be of special interest to handicappers, as it has been included in Kaif\u2019s world-wide pick six contest.<\/P>

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A common thread facing handicappers is that it seems most are stretching out, coming off a stakes win, and owning a couple of 80+ speed figures.<\/P>

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Let\u2019s try to find a single:<\/P>

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  1. CJT<\/I>\u2019s (10%) Pit of Destruction <\/B>(2 yo c, Awesome Again x Shot Glass (Pulpit) x Chief\u2019s Crown) broke his maiden on the turf, but has been on the dirt since, winning a stakes and fading badly in his last effort.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Stretches out for the first time and may need an easy lead to take this.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/LI><\/OL>

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    1. Staying On(Fr)<\/B> (2 yo c, Zindabad(Fr) x Deep Trouble LC(Ire) (Cape<\/st1:PlaceType> Cross<\/st1:PlaceName><\/st1:place>(Ire)) x Encino) has been first or second in all five starts, all on the grass.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Was a longshot winner in last, as he wired a stakes field for trainer Levers<\/I> (9%).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is the first route attempt for the modestly bred colt, but his dam won going long.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Levers has to be pleased with results so far.<\/LI><\/OL>

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      1. Tenacious V <\/B>(2 yo f, Vindication x Lear Fan x Buckpasser) tries the boys for the first time.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It\u2019s also the first stakes try for the filly out of the Peeps4<\/I> (16%) barn.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>What she does have, though, is an eight furlong win on the grass, coming last time in her first try on the surface, where she rallied to finish with a very competitive 88 speed figure.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Excellent trainer, promising apprentice jockey, nice running style, loves turf, a win at the distance, and generous odds. Hmm.<\/LI><\/OL>

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        1. Even at 22-1, Icy Europa(Ire)<\/B> (2 yo c, Galileo(Ire) x Harpsichord (Rahy) x Machiavellian) is not a toss out. The dam of this Goody5<\/I> (13%) trained colt won two turf routes, and the progeny of Galileo love the grass.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Icy Europa is two for three, including a stakes win.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The relatively modest 75 speed figure, together with the short field he beat, accounts for the long odds, but it was from eight weeks ago.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Stalking style may hold up in this first route try, and normal maturation could put him right there.<\/LI><\/OL>

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          1. Rainbow Flux <\/B>(2 yo c, Rainbow Quest x Renee Flux (Nureyev) x Sir Ivor) has a closing style that may help as he stretches out a half-furlong for this.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The MrFu2<\/I> (12%) trainee won a stakes last out and owns three 80+ speed figures in his five races.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Rainbow Quest sure produces a lot of turf stakes winners.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>No real negatives here.<\/LI><\/OL>

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            1. A winner of five of seven, Storm Tapper <\/B>(2 yo c, Tapit x Malt Storm (Storm Cat) x Mr. Prospector) is a deserving favorite.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Let\u2019s see: he has an 18% trainer in RunPastEm9<\/I>; he won going away in a graded stakes at 7 \u00bd furlongs on the turf last time; his 94 speed figure in that race is much the best in here; his dam even won a turf stakes route.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Let\u2019s nitpick: two turns at eight furlongs is a much different race from one turn at 7 \u00bd.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Also the best Ontario<\/st1:place><\/st1:State> jockeys chose 10-1 horses.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Jockey Welborne\u2019s talent, if not limited, has been well hidden.<\/LI><\/OL>

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              1. Campillo<\/B> (2 yo c, Storm Cat x Seeking the Gold x Nijinsky II) has two wins and a second in three grass starts for the Rafita<\/I> (13%) barn.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Another one coming off a stakes win, with an 80 speed figure, and stretching out.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Raise your hand if you would be surprised to see him win.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I don\u2019t see any hands\u2026.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                1. Seeking the Lass<\/B> (2 yo c, Seeking the Gold x Night Shift x Cutlass) ran an even third in the Omnipotent Juvenile behind Storm Tapper.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Prior to that RichardObe<\/I> (13%) trained him to two turf wins, including a stakes.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He owns two 80+ speed figures.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Low percentage jockey.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                  1. At 34-1, surely we can throw out Misty Way<\/B><\/st1:address><\/st1:Street> (2 yo f, Cetewayo x Early Morning Mist(GB) (Diesis(GB)) x Vaguely Noble)?\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Sorry.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Like fellow filly Tenacious V, she has actually won at two turns on the turf, beating the boys in a stakes last time as a maiden for CatDancer<\/I> (9%).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The speed figure was a mediocre 77, so we will downgrade her chances.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I think.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                    1. Kandraker<\/B> (2 yo c, Spinning World x Nijinsky II x Northern Dancer) won the Grade III Feeling Bad Stakes three months ago.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Last time, the TwoPine<\/I> (18%) trained colt came up short in his rally as a 3-2 favorite.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Not only is his trainer high percentage, but he also gets number two jockey N Linville<\/st1:place>, and he is winning at a 20% clip in 2005.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Will be flying late.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Great value play at 10-1.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                      1. The number one Ontario<\/st1:place><\/st1:State> jockey, B Renfroe, opts for another 10-1 colt: Son of Scab<\/B> (2 yo c, Macho Uno x Katie\u2019s Scab (Danzig<\/st1:place>) x Conquistador Cielo).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>BobbyKHW<\/I> (20%) trains the only one actually shortening up for this race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Son of Scab won at 8 \u00bd furlongs last time, going away from a small stakes field, while earning an 87 speed figure.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If you don\u2019t like Storm Tapper, you have to be excited about a 10-11 exacta box.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                        1. General Nutsaritch(Aus)<\/B> (General Nediym(Aus) x Longships (Danehill) x Fappiano) was a fading seventh in the Omnipotent Juvenile, but before that he had a first and a second in a pair of turf stakes, earning 80+ speed figures.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The crafty DKYoung5<\/I> (15%) trains.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                          1. Trolley<\/B> (2 yo f, Victory Gallop x Forty Niner x Theatrical(Ire))\u00a0 <\/SPAN>is coming off a speedy stakes win against the boys.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The Wish<\/I> (16%) trainee earned a field second best 89 speed figure, and now she tries two turns for the first time. Breeding says she should like the extra distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She has won three of her four turf starts.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Another we can\u2019t find any negatives for.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                            1. Gamaliel<\/B> (2 yo c, Sakhee x Wild Kid (Unbridled) x Cozzene) has four first or second finishes in six turf starts.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Rare in this field in that he hasn\u2019t won a stakes yet, nor cracked the 80s in his speed figures.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>May improve on the stretchout for SimonD4<\/I> (15%), but I think I\u2019ll look elsewhere for the winner.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                              Morning line choice: 6-13-5-7<\/P>

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                              Timmn\u2019s choice: 11-6-10-3<\/P>

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                              To comment, email timmn@hotmail.com<\/o:p><\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                              Good Speed Figure? Stakes Winner Last Time? You’re Here<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":432,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/432"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/732\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}