{"id":7280,"date":"2009-02-20T15:10:36","date_gmt":"2009-02-20T15:10:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=7280"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=7280","title":{"rendered":"Not much pace in Rock’s Texas race"},"content":{"rendered":"

By ITCH<\/STRONG><\/P>

A horse is going to have to put-near get stuck in the gate to break last in a field of 14 assembled in Texas for the $200,000 Rock’s Texas Cooking Series Stakes, a six-furlong open dash on the main track.<\/P>

You never seen such a group of gate dwellers!<\/P>

One can imagine the conversations between jockeys at the start: “After you, sir,” they shall chant in unison.<\/P>

Because this is a six-furlong race that is so common to American horse bettors, I decided to handicap the race as I would at the track. There is an old, five-part numeric formula I have used for years to get a rough comparison in any race. One of the grades is the top two positions the horse shows at the first call of any two races today’s distance or shorter. Right away, this gives you an idea of how much speed is in the race. It also tells you whether there might be lone speed.<\/P>

As always, we’ll rank the contenders according to how they qualified for the race. There are a couple in here I like, and one in particular, because of the very unusual pace scenario which is setting up in this race.<\/P>

The No. 1 qualifier, Rafa’s<\/EM> SOBRON<\/STRONG>, is a stablemate of the 2007 Bluegrass Derby winner, ATAUN. They’re together in the Palmisland<\/EM> stable, and yes, some of Ataun’s class has rubbed off on his stablemate. Sobron, a roan 5yo son of Unbridled’s Song, is knocking on the door of graded success. This horse was only four lengths back in the Breeders Bowl last fall, and once again was near the money last out in a Grade 2, in which he was an up-close fourth. This has to be a little frustrating for the Zambaygo operation, as this horse has been right on the edge of those nice prizes, but has come up short. Now, we see that the horse has a restricted Grade I win to his credit, but those have to be taken with a grain of salt classwise. The good news is, this is not a Grade I or a Grade 2 race. This is really a drop in class for this horse, who should have plenty left in the tank at age 5. The bad news is, he’s the first in a long list of closers and does not have much of a pace to run at. He might be able to overcome a pace disadvantage on his class.<\/P>

The second qualifier is a juicy price at 11-1. It’s INDY STREET<\/STRONG> for the Beefcake Stables<\/EM>. This 4yo chestnut son of Street Cry has produced nicely so far, winning seven from 19 starts and earning over a quarter million. Hang your handicapping hat on that race two back, in which Indy Street closed like a freight train to capture a Grade 2 sprint. Tactics were changed several starts ago in the Bernie Mac, when the horse was sent to the front, but since then, Beefcake has gone back to the original plan and let the horse come with one run. It worked great in that Grade 2 triumph, but he’s missed the board in four of his last five. As with most come-from-behind types, it’s hit or miss with Indy Street. The good news is, he’s getting a break class-wise in this race. The last three were all against graded, and this race has to be considered a notch below that, even with the nice purse of $200,000. The bad news is that the pace is bound to work against him.<\/P>

In an illustration of modern, open-minded thinking, a BTB writer who happens to be listening to the Grateful Dead is about to get excited about a horse from a stable called parrothead. LOL. Normally, Deadheads and Parrotheads do a lot of the same things, like stand around in a parking lot and drink beer before a concert. Somehow, fans of Jerry Garcia and Jimmy Buffett tend to poke fun at each other for some reason. Let the foolishness come to rest in this here discussion of Tulloch’s<\/EM> fine horse, CAPTAIN TONY<\/STRONG>. This chesnut 6yo son of Dixieland Band is on a roll! He’s won three in a row and been first or second in each of his last six. The latest score was the icing on the cake, a Grade 3 score. We notice that race was back on Jan. 3, so we’re looking at a little bit of a layoff here: seven weeks. Did the stress of the winning streak or maybe the increased class of the latest win get to this horse a little bit? We don’t know how he came out of that last race. From the appearance of his racing record, it looks like all systems go for Captain Tony. The worries are the layoff, the bad post position (widest of all 14) and the expected non-favorable pace scenario to closers. If this horse comes roaring to be first or second again with all those factors against him? That would be a very good race.<\/P>

I apologize to the Pureluck Stables<\/EM> ahead of time should the weight of this burden prove too much for the horse to bear, but HERE IS THE PICK!!!! ANTIQUE GOLD<\/STRONG> is a 5yo son of Seeking the Gold who ran a bang-up race last out to be third after setting the pace in the Grade 2 Pablo Verces Handicap. This horse appears to be responding nicely to some patient handling by his trainer, and should be sitting on a big race in his upward form cycle here. Speed and class drop are a potent combination, especially when combined with the most powerful of all handicapping angles in the history of American thoroughbred dirt racing: lone speed. There are a couple others in here who might give Antique Gold a bit of a battle for early control in this race, but if he’s on his game like he looks to be, Antique Gold should be able to clear early and have every chance to win. My money says this horse goes to the front on Saturday and improves his position.<\/P>

We see that Las Vegas Bob,<\/EM> trainer of last fall’s Breeders Bowl Sprint champion Mr. Toms River NJ, went to his old stomping grounds two back with MOUNTAIN SLEW BG<\/STRONG>, who was bred in the far-off land of Turkey. A roughneck 5yo chestnut by Mountain Cat, Mountain Slew BG was second two back on the old West Virginia oval. That came as no surprise to Old Waterford railbirds, who have watched Bob123g horses sail home year after year in local stake races. This horse has proven himself non-graded stakes worthy at several points in his career, backing up his Grade 2 win as a 3yo. Bob has not been too aggressive with this horse, preferring to keep him in form with a number of allowance races, but he strkes at the non-graded level when he thinks the horse is ready. He’s very consistent with his speed figures, hitting the triple-digit mark in every race but two of his last 17. I think you’re going to have to give extra consideration in a dirt sprint stakes race to a horse entered by the trainer of the BB champion in that category. Mountain Slew BG does come from behind, but does not drop back as far as some of the real laggers in this race. He could inherit good striking position and be ready to pounce if the speed falters.<\/P>

Say, this race is turning into a regular Old Waterford reunion! ORDER SIXTY SIX<\/STRONG> is trained by none other than Nextbonus<\/EM>, another wily veteran well familiar to WV railbirds. Luckily for Bill, this race is in Texas and not West Virginia, because as we vaguely recall, Vegas Bob used to show Nextbonus the way around the track in those old stake contests. As the years have passed, the slate is clean and we see another renewal of this old rivalry. The good Mr. Bill always has had a nice collection of stock in his barns, and it never made any sense why his horses did not run up to snuff in WV. Maybe he’ll go better down here in Texas, but the morning line oddsmaker sure does not think so. Order Sixty Six is dismissed at 15-1, third-longest shot in the field. It’s true that the horse was only seventh in his most-recent stakes attempt, but that race was maybe a little too long at 7.5 furlongs. Order Sixty Six has raced much better at Saturday’s distance of six furlongs, and his tactical speed affords him a manageable pace scenario. He’s only a 4yo by Seeking the Gold, so he has the right to improve. You have to like his tendency to win, having nine victories from 23 starts. That’ll fatten the win percentage in a hurry.<\/P>

As little as the morning line oddsmaker thinks of Order Sixty Six, that’s how much he thinks of the Natrap Stables’<\/EM> OUT OF MY WAY<\/STRONG>. It’s unusual for a seventh-place qualifer to be favored, but there it is, in black and white. Natrap’s 5yo brown son of Forty Niner is 5-1, shortest price of all. As is well known in the Sim, the morning line oddsmaker just can’t look past those speed figures. We might have guessed that a seventh-place horse going off favored must have fired a big shot on the speed figure sheet last out, and he did. Out Of My Way made it two in a row with an impressive score by one length in a full field of 14 in a Nebraska stake. What impressed the oddsmaker was that great, big 116 speed figure he earned while doing it, a new career best for Out Of My Way. He’s sharp right now, and that could work in his favor at this shorter distance of six furlongs. Normally, we would consider this horse to be a little more potent at 6.5 or seven. He earned that big number going 6.5, and we notice that he is maybe a little late at the six-furlong distance. Perhaps by being sharp, he can lay a little closer and be more effective. With the expected pace and his post way out at No. 12, we are going to take a shot against him at a short price. Now watch him go.<\/P>

I consider myself a friend and a big fan of both the 2007 and 2008 Trainers of the Year, those being my chat room buddies Squirrel and Kaif. I think it was tremendous what Kaif did in last year’s Sim Trainer Challenge, a remarkable performance in a difficult contest. As has been explained to me by Squirrel, the Trainer of the Year contest is for a single barn, and not an aggregate outfit. Still, I’ll never get by the notion that Lenny, trainer of PREDOMINANT <\/STRONG>in this race, should have won the award for winning five races on Breeders Bowl day. I guess the Evil Empire<\/EM> will just have to be satisfied with even more stakes victories. Lenny<\/EM> goes for another one here with Predominant, a 5yo brown son of Seeking the Gold who was right behind the race favorite, Out Of My Way, when he earned that big number in the Nebraska race. A length behind in second, Predominant got a 114, also a big number, and reflected in his relatively short price at 8-1. He’s nowhere near the best horse in the Evil Empire, but Predominant is a useful horse and has a few things going for him here. He is showing a real affinity for the six furlong distance, having raced very well while either winning or second in three consecutive. He has been second in two stakes races in a row now. Most important of all, he’s racing for the most powerful outfit in all of Sim racing.<\/P>

Don’t look now, folks, but the man known for his hokey-jokey Grade I entries to get 10 BPs is starting to develop some serious horses. It turns out that Tsunami knows a thing or two about horseracing. As regular visitors to the chat room may know, Tsunami and I made a friendly wager on how many races he could win with a new barn. I confidently bet that he could not win 10 of his first 50 races, or 20 percent. Guess what folks? I was wrong. Tsunami<\/EM> is a cinch to win the wager with his Tsunami0 barn, starting out six for 11. I guess I learned a lesson there and maybe Tsunami has learned some himself with the way he is starting to make some serious entries in stakes races. Look at the job he has done with this particular horse, BOSTONIAN<\/STRONG>. The previous owner of this 6yo son of Boston Harbor after three straight poor races in non-graded stakes, and dropped him in for a measly $10,000 tag. There was Tsunami with his claim slip, and plans to return the horse to good form. He found a soft spot next out in a track-restricted race, then kept the horse going by finding him races on an off track, which he loves. Bostonian ran two nice speed figures in allowance company, and was second last out. If it were me, I’d be trying to win starter allowance races, but Tsunami hates those and is shooting for the bigger prize with this stakes entry on Saturday. I don’t like the horse in the race, particularly because of the pace scenario failing to benefit his late-running style and the switch to a fast track. But, Tsunami has proven me wrong before.<\/P>

The Super Stables<\/EM> have a great, big banner at the top of their page saying “More Evil Than the Evil Empire.” Over time, I have come to respect the consistency of the Super Stables, and it’s hard to criticize someone willing to help sponsor a game I play basically for free, but I don’t know about that statement on the stable page. As Bill Parcells says, you are what your record says you are. After a lot of races with a lot of stables each, Lenny wins at 20.8 percent, while the Supers only strike at 15.4 percent. They’re both constantly striving for the top of the game and entering the most difficult of races. So, the nod has to go the real Evil Empire at this point. But, it’s always to be proven on the track and here we have another head-to-head matchup. Lenny has the aforementioned Predominant, while Super sends forth DEPUTY OF PEACE<\/STRONG>. Simply put, this 5yo son of Peace Rules is looking for a form reversal. He’s out of the exacta six races in a row now, this after a very nice run of form last spring and summer which saw him become very dependable. He had a nice run of five in a row first or second, but just isn’t able to manage it lately. It’s hard to recommend a horse that’s been non-threatening in eight stakes races in a row.<\/P>

Can a 6yo be the fresh horse in a race? Maybe so with Rharfo’s <\/EM>MY CHEESY SMILE<\/STRONG>, who goes to post as the second-longest shot in the field at 16-1. This striking roan son of Trempolino is hustling around Simulated racetracks like a spring chicken lately. How fun was it to see him graduate all the way to stakes company last out, winning a non-graded 6.5-furlong race in Spain? He had been performing very well in allowance company, hitting the board in four straight and winning three of six. Now, you’ve got a horse who’s won four of his last seven and is right back in a non-graded race. This horse is running awfully well lately to be dismissed as the second-longest price in the field. Another rung in his handicapping ladder is his running style. In a field loaded with closers, he’s got tactical speed and can be expected to lay close to a pace expected to be set by Antique Gold. Should that one falter even a little, the race could fall right into the hands of My Cheesy Smile. I am going to use this horse in my trifectas.<\/P>

WOULD YOU BELIEVE<\/STRONG> that the 12th qualifier in the field is going off as a massive longshot at 99-1? He qualifies in front of two others, but has been totally dismissed by the morning line oddsmaker as a hopeless longshot. The reason, of course, is his lack of speed figures. While every other horse in the race throws 100s with regularity, Would You Believe has yet to crack the triple-digit plateau. That’s a huge disadvantage, of course, as reflected in his ridiculous morning line. This is a quirk of the Simulated oddsmaking machine, because no horse on a three-race winning streak and four-for-six lifetime is going off at 99-1, speed figures or not. Davebwing<\/EM> has himself a nice colt here who makes his first start against older horses. This race might serve as a prep for later races, but that doesn’t mean Davebwing does not have a horse to be excited about. This one has prospects and quite possibly a rosier future than some of his opponents in this race.<\/P>

Apparently, it takes an INCREDIBLE<\/STRONG> GENIUS<\/STRONG> to qualify behind a 99-1 shot in a stakes race. But, the CVBear<\/EM> Racing<\/EM> Empire<\/EM> is only 10-1 with this 5yo brown son of Smarty Jones. What gives? Why, the speed figures, of course. Incredible Genius has been firing some nice shots in allowance company, most notably last out when he earned a lifetime-best 113 while winning a restricted allowance going seven furlongs in the slop. The conditions of Saturday’s race are a good bit different from the conditions under which that 113 was earned, however. Instead of a sloppy track going a furlong farther against allowance types, we have a six-furlong stakes dash on a fast track. On top of that, this horse is going to want to join that long list of closers in this race. Were we in CV’s shoes, we’d probably make the same kind of move off of that sweet 113. However, mark us down as surprised if this horse can make the same kind of move against these going shorter.<\/P>

Finally, we have OTTO<\/STRONG> ALLEGHENY<\/STRONG>, completing the circle of friends entered in this race. It’s that 2007 Trainer of the Year Squirrel<\/EM> who is at the controls of the Pierchinski<\/EM> Stables<\/EM> these days, and there’s plenty of fast stakes horses flying under that banner. The only problem? Otto Allegheny isn’t one of them right now. This horse has back class, and is a multiple stakes winner. Otto last won a stakes race in April of last year, but since then has been struggling. The horse closed surprisingly well in the slop last out when entered in the Grade 1 DPCD Sprint Championship, carding an improved speed figure and finishing a close-up fifth, beaten only two lengths. But, in looking through this horse’s pp’s, it becomes apparent that he is a wet-track specialist, and his chances are not helped by Saturday’s fast track. This horse has shown the ability to contend in route races, and is to be considered a dead-end closer in this sprint. There isn’t much room at the back of the bus here.<\/P>

As a special bonus to today’s race coverage, we will share our wager for this race. Key ANTIQUE GOLD on trifecta tickets with the 4, 6, 7 and 12 as follows:<\/STRONG><\/EM><\/P>

10\/4,6,7,12\/all<\/P>

10\/all\/4,6,7,12<\/P>

4,6,7,12\/10\/all<\/P>

total cost: $288 on a $2 dollar ticket<\/P>

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!!!!<\/STRONG><\/P>

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Lone speed ANTIQUE GOLD is the pick<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":225,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7280","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/225"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7280"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7280\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7280"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7280"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7280"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}