We\u2019re back with Week 2 of the contest! It\u2019s the same format as last week except that these 4 heats are restricted to fillies, all first-time starters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Last week\u2019s boys races were chock full of blue-bloods which appeared as yellow \u201ccapper\u201d ratings \u2013 a total of 51 of the 58 juveniles earned that distinction from the CPU. This week boasts the usual murderer\u2019s row of top Kentucky stallions, but a few more trainers are taking shots with less regally-bred babies. And like I\u2019ve been saying, what matters now is how fast the horse is NOW, not what it will do next May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As we approach the entries deadline it looks like we\u2019re going to have 61 entrants across the four fields (Group A through D), so one lucky heat will get that wildcard 16th<\/sup> competitor taking a single shot at dethroning Kingab and Trotter and friends\u2026 if only until the next race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n (Cut and paste from the last article \u2013 because why not?) Instead of giving a full prognostic rundown \u2013 how could I do that with ALL first-time starters? \u2013 we\u2019ll just compile some interesting observations and talk about notables or intriguing pedigrees in the field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I\u2019ll try to sprinkle in some compliments and insults, that part is new!<\/p>\n\n\n\n Heat A<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Runners – 16<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cYellows\u201d – 13<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Common Sires – Curlin(2), Into Mischief (2)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Let\u2019s just cut to the chase with both the sire power and the trainer power coming from Kingab\u2019s #2 PICOLLO DISPETTO<\/strong>, who couldn\u2019t be more intimidating. He sports the powerful parentage combo of Into Mischief<\/strong> and MISS VINOTINTO (Giant\u2019s Causeway x Americain<\/strong>), the latter being the winner of the 2020 G1 Superfilly Handicap. She in turn is the only foal (1 of 1 collector\u2019s item) from he-mared RUCIO MORO (Mr. Prospector<\/strong> damsire), who won the G1 Japan Cup and the G1 Barry Foster. Madone!<\/p>\n\n\n\n One of those three \u201cnon-yellow\u201d types caught my eye as one to watch, and that\u2019s Valesa\u2019s #3 CALL OF BEAUTY, <\/strong>who is a juicy 27-1. He\u2019s by NY stallion Solomini (Curlin x Storm Cat)<\/strong> so perhaps there are other ESR New York bred races in mind, but I wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see a good effort in open company. The dam SHE WALKSIN BEAUTY (Distorted Humor x Seattle Slew)<\/strong> won a G3 race at two, mixed it up with some good ones while G1 placed, and went on to produce 4 stakes-placed runners from her 4 foals to race. Solomini has sired three G2 winners, and their breeders were Valesa, Trotter, and Kingab. Naturally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Another sleeper could be #14 STG GREYADINI<\/strong> from the Ace contingent. Two of her other Seize The Grey<\/strong> colts were rapid pacesetters in the boys\u2019 version of these races, and this one was he-mared from single race winner LUKADINI (Bernardini x War Front<\/strong>). That one race, though, was a monster 88 Speed Figure earned in his first start at today\u2019s 8 furlongs on dirt. He even matches on the calendar (September 3rd<\/sup> was his winning debut). <\/p>\n\n\n\n Beisbol (me) shows up with an \u201cA\u201d horse for Group A by virtue of 7-1 favorite #8 DODGER BEISBOL, <\/strong>one of the two Curlin <\/strong>colts in the race (CURLINUPFORWINTER<\/strong> is the other, slightly more obvious.) \u2018DB\u2019 the horse is a very expensive scratch bred using Storm Cat <\/strong>and A. P. Indy<\/strong> at the back end slots, which means this is not a Beisbol bred. He was a surprise gift from a much more successful, anonymous trainer who is DEFINITELY not a Padres fan!<\/p>\n\n\n\n Heat B<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Runners – 15<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cYellows\u201d – 11<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Common Sires \u2013 Tapit(2), Gun Runner(2)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n So far I\u2019ve been offering capsules on a handful of horses each race, and always including one about the morning line favorite. But what do you do in this race where there are FOUR 7-1 shots? You skip them, that\u2019s what!<\/p>\n\n\n\n It really is a deep field (don\u2019t be surprised) but I was taken aback at seeing 15-1 next to a Tapit <\/strong>filly, Lbailey\u2019s #4 TAPPIN THAT LEMON. <\/strong>She\u2019s He-mared from the fast Lemon Drop Kid x Dehere <\/strong>stakes winner BERNIE LOVES LEMON, <\/strong>who did not win a single race at two\u2026 but also did not race at 2! He was a first out winner in May of his 3yo year, which is what you can do with a scratch bred of this quality. My point- I see literally untapped potential in this family tree. I\u2019m rolling into Heat B with another gift horse, this time a bigger price at 21-1 with #13 CAITLYN KIRAMMAN. <\/strong>Valesa was kind enough to offer one of her surplus breedings, which is a sleek-looking Constitution<\/strong> out of a very fast Speightstown x Mission Impazzible<\/strong> he-mare (WHY THE MISSION<\/strong>). I was already optimistic about my chances, but when told that WHY THE MISSION<\/strong> had been bred and given to Valesa by Kingab, well, it seemed like a positive omen. A wise man once said \u201cTo be the man, you\u2019ve gotta beat the man\u201d so in this case I am hoping Kingab metaphorically beats himself! #10 DYNAMIC FLYER (Flightline) <\/strong>may have other ideas\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n Heat C<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Runners – 15<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cYellows\u201d – 11<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Common Sires – Gun Runner(3), War Front(2)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Gun Runner<\/strong> is definitely emerging as the favorite 2yo sire of the ESR dirt breeders so far, but there\u2019s always a Tapit<\/strong> or Candy Ride<\/strong> or one of their sons lurking nearby. I always think of War Front <\/strong>as a turf mile or dirt sprint kind of sire, so it\u2019s surprising to see him show up here at a dirt mile so many times again! <\/p>\n\n\n\n Three co-favorites each 7-1 in this heat, and of course it\u2019s two of the Gun Runner\u2019s and Spinround\u2019s Nyquist<\/strong> filly #14 MARCH OF MAEDHROS. <\/strong> Flagdown has one gigantic egg in this basket with #4 ZIGGY\u2019S GOT A GUN, <\/strong>a scratch-bred Gun Runner x A.P. Indy. Danzig <\/strong> who\u2019s capper color is a \u2018dark yellow\u2019 the likes of which I have not seen since that day I forgot my water bottle for the hike. Ok hell, let\u2019s mention the other Gun Runner<\/strong> \u2013 it can be a rivalry. That one is also a scratch bred, Gun Runner x Deputy Minister x Mr. Prospector<\/strong>, coming out of the 8 hole for Lbailey. GUNS OF THE DEPUTY <\/strong>also a dark yellow and I\u2019m probably going to quit with the similies while I am ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Will throw a last plug for scratch-bred #7 STAR LAWS <\/strong>(Trotter) who caught my eye not only for the sire Constitution (I got one of those!) but also the backend consisting of GALILEO(IRE) x FORTY NINER<\/strong>. That\u2019s a decidedly surface ambiguous if not turf curious pedigree combo \u2013 Galileo<\/strong> 17% dirt and Forty Niner<\/strong> 30% turf earnings as dam sires, per game stats. I\u2019ve seen it time and time again where Galileo, Sadler\u2019s Wells<\/strong> and the likes are paired with Dirt Classic sires to get Champion Dirt horses\u2026 but not when I try. Gonna keep my eye on this guy!<\/p>\n\n\n\n I agonized quite a bit over the breeding of leased mare GOOD QUALITY CRY (Quality Road x Street Cry), <\/strong>knowing I\u2019d get a route horse that might mature later & had plenty of Mr. Prospector<\/strong>, to the point that I needed to avoid him on the tail-male side. The mare has only a 3yo American Pharoah<\/strong> filly in her produce, and she\u2019s yet to break maiden, so I was looking for something with a little more speed at a shorter distance. Like a mile. <\/p>\n\n\n\n I settled on 2021 Breeder\u2019s Cup Dirt Mile winner Life Is Good<\/strong> (Into Mischief x Distorted Humor) <\/strong>who isn\u2019t putting up Gun Runner<\/strong> numbers but does have a fast SIM G2 winner out of a Street Cry<\/strong> mare (Trotter\u2019s LIFE IN SEATTLE<\/strong>). So once again its me trying to mimic the residency\u2019s best in order to beat them. It was a coincidence, I swear! #13 GOOD GAWD <\/strong> not beloved by the oddsmaker at 12-1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Heat D<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Runners – 15<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cYellows\u201d – 14<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Common Sires \u2013 Into Mischief (3), American Pharoah (2)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Saving the best for last? Almost a clean sweep of \u201cyellow\u201d breedings here for the final heat, with only bargain sire brainiac Deeprock holding out with a 25 point sire on #13 TOROSA<\/strong> (Two Phil\u2019s x<\/strong> Audible x Curlin)<\/strong> \u2026 as one does when you\u2019ve produced a $10 million winner DARK MANDU<\/strong> from a stallion named Mountain High. Scary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Wanna see something really, really scary? Tisjuliet unveils #2 MASAYA<\/strong> (a nifty play on the stable name bliss), <\/em>an extremely well-meant daughter of Into Mischief<\/strong> and ARRONAUTICAL (Arrogate x A. P. Indy)<\/strong> who was a GSP stakes winner but more importantly sports 119 and 120 Speed Figure efforts in her dirt route past performances. The stereotypical analysis \u201ccould be any kind\u201d would fit here, but I\u2019d upgrade that to \u201cprobably gonna be some kind of awesome\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The morning line favorite is #14 CHANCE OF STRIFE<\/strong>, one of the three Into Mischief<\/strong> fillies, out of Given\u2019s maiden Curlin x War Front<\/strong> mare named WARACUKAZA<\/strong>. She won three times at two and never ran a race as short as today\u2019s flat mile, but we should expect the Spinround charge to be charging late. This would be a great calling card for the Lease Mare program if she gets there in time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Speaking of lessees, my entrant #5 TWO A\u2019S FOR JANE<\/strong> was also produced from a mare leased from the Supertaffy band of broodmares. The young JANE PENDELTON (Awesome Again x Kingmambo) <\/strong>never really settled into a niche, but she did win at 8.25f and 8.5f in her first two tries going long, which I liked. Her first and only foal to race is a filly by Nyquist named NIGHTTIME JANE<\/strong>, and the now 4yo seems to be a 12 furlong specialist. I hoped to introduce some different genetic combos to the excellent backend and decided I would flip two A cards, and take my chances with a strong dirt sire. Two A\u2019S for Jane, get it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n I got Honor Code<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hmmm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He hasn\u2019t been producing great for awhile now, but a small consolation is that of his 13 Grade 1 winners in the game, 4 of them are out of Awesome Again<\/strong> mares. One of those even has Kingmambo<\/strong> at the DDS \u2013 it\u2019s PURPLE HONOR<\/strong>, winner of the 2022 Exam Stakes (G1 at 7f dirt for 3yo fillies). It might have helped that her dam AWESOME PRINCESS<\/strong> won the 2012 The Priceless (G1 at 6f on the dirt for 3yo fillies), but now is not the time or place for pessimism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If you think I am gently nudging the Sim Gods to bless my horse with G1 powers, well yes, you got me there. Either that or let me win and beat Kingab, just this once.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" We\u2019re back with Week 2 of the contest! It\u2019s the same format as last week except that these 4 heats<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":67,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-72088","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72088","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/67"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=72088"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72088\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":72095,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72088\/revisions\/72095"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=72088"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=72088"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=72088"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
#7 SWEET THUNDER<\/strong> is another one that looks not quite like the others \u2013 she is a Candy Ride x Bernardini<\/strong> x More Than Ready scratch bred. Trainer Sremel just recently won the G1 Hopeless Stakes (2yo 7f) so we know the ability to develop a good youngster is there, but the wrinkle here is that SWEET THUNDER<\/strong> was bred by \u2018etestcase\u2019. I\u2019m thinking maybe this was some sort of Twitch prize with a crowd sourced sire combo? In any event the 2.00 Dosage Index and 0.50 Center of Distribution scores align with the anecdotal impressions that this horse should be speedy at the distance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n