{"id":676,"date":"2005-09-22T18:16:41","date_gmt":"2005-09-22T18:16:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=676"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=676","title":{"rendered":"Be \u201cBrave\u201d, Think Fundamentally"},"content":{"rendered":"

When you were learning to handicap, whether from Davidowitz, Beyer, or Grandpa, what were the tenets of basic evaluation? Well, Beyer would certainly try to convince you that speed wins races. Davidowitz, he\u2019d give speed it\u2019s due importance, but dwell also on form and distance; most horses win at a narrow range of ideal distances. Grandpa \u2013 I\u2019m sure he made you well aware of the fact that \u2018pace makes the race\u2019. <\/P>

Saturday\u2019s featured $500,000 Grade I Bob Woodward features a contentious, impressive cast, a case to be made for nearly all of the participants. With that in mind, I will impart one of my own, personal betting, not handicapping, but betting tenets: When all else is in the vicinity of being equal, play the value.<\/P>

In my mind, after jumbling Davidowitz, Gramps, Beyer, and some dope named Hannibal, there is revealed one clear standout upon which to center your wagering attention, Seeking the Brave<\/B>.<\/P>

A six-year-old son of Seeking The Gold, value is abundant thanks in part to a pair of wretched efforts in his last two starts. Some will, perhaps accurately, point out that the veteran is on the fast path to the half-century mark in career starts with Saturday marking number forty-seven, and that he has finally taken a permanent turn for the worse. He\u2019s too damn old and tired, basically.<\/P>

On the other hand, the ten-time winner has made just three career starts sprinting, hitting the board in exactly zero, so personally, I\u2019m willing to toss the seven furlong debacle in his most recent. His previous disaster, a sixteen length drubbing in the ten furlong Movieland Shiny Cup, appears tougher to merely draw a line through.<\/P>

But, Seeking the Brave is clearly most effective when setting, or at least contesting the pace. In the Movieland Shiny, he ran into monsters like Leno\u2019s Chin<\/B>, a ten-time winner of nearly a half-million with blazing early speed. Estrogen<\/B> – a mare with blazing speed herself, a Grade I winner on both surfaces, against both genders, and earnings in excess of one and a third million dollars. Of course, aside from the speedsters, the class giants, millionaires Search and Conquer<\/B>, Silver Canuck<\/B>, and of course Call of the Wild II<\/B>, winner of nearly six million, and a rival once more on Saturday.<\/P>

In the Woodward, there is no Estrogen, no Leno\u2019s Chin to shuffle him back early. He appears to be the speed of the speed, which Mr. Beyer would appreciate. He seems best at a mile and an eighth, with two seconds and a third in his last three graded stakes starts at the distance, which I\u2019m sure would tickle the fancy of Steve Davidowitz. Grandpa would tell you that he should get an easy pace, which makes the race, and also that the jockeys are crooked bastards, but we\u2019ll extrapolate from Gramps only information that comes from the right half of the brain. The goof named Hannibal? He\u2019d say this old bugger is close to double-digits on the tote board \u2013 sign up now.<\/P>

Divisional leader Call of the Wild II, by War Chant out of Mammoth Jess (by, Nureyev), is hands-down, without a doubt, the one to beat. Though he began his career on turf, the transition to the main track catapulted him towards the pinnacle of his class in short order. A solid third in the Grade I Princess Cup was backed up by a convincing victory in the Grade I It\u2019s My Birthday Stakes, essentially closing out his sophomore campaign. He did run again in 2004, late in the year against older rivals in a conditioned allowance, and finished third at 3-5. <\/P>

Five weeks later, he returned to graded ranks with a race under his belt, having just celebrated his fourth birthday, and began a fully fledged assault on the older route ranks. His four-year-old campaign began with a big win in the Grade II Toilet Scrubbers, followed by a strong second in the Grade I California Handicap, beaten just half a length. However, it was in Dubai that he became a household name. Three weeks after the defeat in California, running in the richest race, the Sand Castle Classic, Call of the Wild II stamped himself a divisional force with a convincing win.<\/P>

Defying notions of \u2018fluke\u2019, he returned to the states, stopping in Maryland to snatch the Maryland Special, his third Grade I win. Back to California, he could muster only a third off a two-month break in the Movieland Shiny Cup, but returned six weeks later in the Grade I California Classic with a dominant three and three-quarter length triumph. His career record at nine furlongs is just one for four, but three of those starts predated his ascent to stardom, and the one victory looms perhaps his most visually impressive race, the win in the It\u2019s My Birthday at age three with a speed rating of 117. <\/P>

The apparent pace scenario doesn\u2019t seem to flatter his chances necessarily, but unlike many of his other accomplished rivals on Saturday, he isn\u2019t exactly a closer. With the ability to lay within relative striking range, any meltdown on the part of the likely pace players leaves Call of the Wild II an overwhelming favorite to reinforce his role as \u2018best of class.\u2019<\/P>

Search and Conquer finds himself amidst several friends, including the aforementioned Seeking the Brave and Call of the Wild II. Among the most consistent in his class, the four-year-old has had the luxury of outrunning both Seeking the Brave and Call of the Wild in the Movieland Shiny Cup, but may find a reprisal of that role tough to accomplish. A late-running type, his style was benefited strongly when Estrogen and Leno\u2019s Chin hooked up in the pace adventure that spelled defeat for Seeking the Brave. But, when he lined up next to Call of the Wild next time in the California Classic, the more sensible early fractions allowed his rival to get first run, forcing the rallying Search and Conquer to settle for runner-up.<\/P>

The son of Machiavellian has had a prolific four-year-old season, starting nine times, winning five, running second in four. He also made his only career start at a mile and an eighth this year, capturing the Grade I New Hampshire handicap, and posting his best speed rating of a stellar year, 115. Like his rival Call of the Wild II, Search and Conquer appears to be in peak form. Making his graded stakes debut just four starts ago in a Grade I, has now made four straight starts in Grade I company, five including Saturday, and has yet to finish worse than second in that time. Things need to set up for him to find the winner\u2019s circle, but it would be no surprise whatsoever to see him extend his \u2018exacta finish\u2019 streak in Grade I company to five straight.<\/P>

The \u2018pace mystery\u2019 is Not Bluffing<\/B>, a four-year-old son of Pine Bluff who is six for thirteen sprinting and two for nine routing, but has won a hundred grand more in routes. A five time stakes winner sprinting with a graded stakes placing and several close misses in sprints, he is an anomaly as a \u2018jack of all trades, master of none.\u2019 He has won at distances from five-eighths to Saturday\u2019s nine furlong distance, and even managed to nearly capture the Grade I Farewell to Cryptozot at a mile and a quarter, leading clear inside the sixteenth pole.<\/P>

Adding more peculiarity to his presence, he has made four career starts at a mile and an eighth, all graded races, with varying running styles and degrees of success. He was well-beaten after stalking the lead in his first try at the distance, the Grade I Cuyahoga Falls early in his three-year-old season. Six starts later, however, he ran one of his most creditable route races to that point, breaking from post thirteen, making all the pace and flattening late to be fourth in the Grade III Northern Derby. <\/P>

After a return to sprints to end his sophomore campaign and begin the 2005 season, he made his route return and first try against older rivals around two turns in the nine furlong, Grade III Mohammed Ali Stakes. Falling far off the pace early, he came from dead last, circled the field on the turn and finished second, beaten a diminishing length. Remaining unpredictable, he then tried another sprint, followed by his lone graded stakes win, a determined head victory in the nine furlong, Grade II Iowa Cornhusker Breeder\u2019s Bowl Classic. Employing a stalking tact, he slipped up the fence on the turn and took a narrow lead just inside the quarter-pole. For three-sixteenths of a mile, he repelled a tenacious Paleskin<\/B> and managed to fend off a late surge by millionaire Boomtown Boy<\/B>, who outlasted him to win the Mohammed Ali just nine weeks earlier.<\/P>

So, can he win this race? Well, yeah. Granted, he likely hasn\u2019t faced a group of this caliber, but he is the wildcard, and wildcards win a lot of races. Does he go toe-to-toe with Seeking the Brave and risk cooking himself and setting it up for one of the other big players? Does he sit back like he did in the Cornhusker and possibly allow Seeking the Brave to steal away and give a colt like Call of the Wild II possible first run? Win, lose, draw, snap a leg off \u2013 Not Bluffing will play a major role in Saturday\u2019s race, even if he runs dead last.<\/P>

While focusing on the pace possibilities, the natural segue leads to Danzig with Sal<\/B>, a lightly raced four-year-old with the blood to explode as a force in his class. By Danzig, his dam, Newbie\u2019s Dream<\/B> (by Storm Cat) was a ten-time winner of over a million dollars, capturing three graded stakes, including the Grade I California Oaks at a mile and a sixteenth. Newbie\u2019s Dream won four sprints, six routes, but was most effective between seven and a half and eight and a half, and dominant at a flat mile. That trait appears to have been passed to her first two foals, as Danzig with Sal\u2019s younger half-sister, Beginner\u2019s Luck<\/B> (by, Carson City) has two stakes wins \u2013 at seven and a half and eight and a half furlongs.<\/P>

Danzig with Sal himself began his career with three straight wins, a maiden win at a mile and a sixteenth, a first level allowance at a flat mile, then a non-three life allowance win at a mile and a sixteenth. In start number four, he found a cozy spot in a non-four lifetime allowance for straight three-year-olds, but had to overcome mom\u2019s distance limitations by trying a mile and three-sixteenths. Like mother, like son, as Danzig with Sal backed up badly in the final eighth of a mile, beaten eight lengths.<\/P>

Punctuating the issue of distance, he returned a handy winner when shortened back to a flat mile, winning back to back races, including the Duke Ali Handicap, posting speed ratings of 112 and 114, respectively. He moved to graded ranks, trying a mile and a sixteenth subsequently and finishing a solid second in the Grade III Razorback Handicap. Since then, he has started six times, all at a flat mile, winning the Grade I G.S.R. Mile, Broad Manila Stakes, and the Group III Lil\u2019 Leprechaun Mile, with second place finishes in both the Group II Prims Memorial and Group II Copenhagen Cup. <\/P>

So how will nine panels suit him on Saturday? Hmmmm\u2026 That\u2019s a tough call; everything about him suggests it\u2019s just out of his scope. But, what he does own that makes him a threat is excellent tactical speed. Again, he\u2019s not blazing fast a la Estrogen or Leno\u2019s Chin, but he\u2019s always right there early, ready to pounce when appropriate. In light of the potential for a relaxed pace, in this case, nine furlongs may trip out perfectly for him.<\/P>

A trivia question \u2013 which member of the field outran the legendary, immortal, mesmerizing, superhorse Silverwore<\/B> just weeks before the now retired great went on to fame in the 2003 Triple Crown Series? Before you get me divulge, he did it just eight starts ago. Wait, what? Eight starts ago he outran Silverwore and this was prior to the 2003 Bluegrass Derby? Yep.<\/P>

Five-year-old Unprecedented <\/B>has run just three times since stamping himself an elite three-year-old two years ago following a devastating victory in the Grade I It\u2019s My Birthday Stakes. Breaking from post fourteen and sent off at nearly 15-1 in the mile and an eighth test, the son of Hansel mowed down the field in the lane to win by three and a half going away \u2013 and then he went away.<\/P>

Nine weeks ago, Unprecedented resurfaced after his two year absence in a twelve furlong stakes and not surprisingly, he was crushed, beaten almost twenty-five lengths. The very next week, dropping into an allowance and turning back to a flat mile, he unleashed a ferocious late kick, last by fifteen inside the half-mile pole and drew off to win by almost two. Well okay, but it was just a lousy allowance, right? Purchased privately after that allowance win, he immediately jumped back into the graded ranks, showing up in the entries four weeks later for the Grade I Delaware Handicap. <\/P>

Flashing a bit more speed than usual, he contested the early lead, remained a threat to the sixteenth pole and gamely held third, beaten only a length. An excellent effort indeed, but of some concern was that he didn\u2019t show any measurable improvement. Did he need to improve off of that big allowance win? No, no \u2013 that wasn\u2019t a weak victory \u2013 it just would have made him impossible to get past in this spot had he stepped it up another notch or two. Of course, perhaps the change in running style left him a bit flat or the three races in six weeks after a two year hiatus. Either way, he certainly figures. And if he ever gets back to where he was two years ago and perhaps displays a little refinement with age, the competition is in trouble.<\/P>

How in God\u2019s good name is Parker<\/B> going to come from twenty back to run over this field, Roys? That question was posed on more than one occasion this week in response to repeated claims that “they won\u2019t beat the big horse on Saturday.” A recent Grade I winner, capturing the Gotta Fix The Sprinklers at a mile and three-sixteenths, there are two knocks on the nearly white son of Sadler\u2019s Wells in this spot on Saturday. <\/P>

First, he\u2019s a one run, from out of the clouds, flying from nowhere, stone closer. As we\u2019ve detailed here for the last thirty-seven thousand words, pace will play a major role in this race if we are to believe that pace plays any role in horse racing. I don\u2019t think there is ample early speed to both kill the pace prompters and provide enough collapse to allow Parker to show the extent of his potential.<\/P>

Secondly, nine furlongs may be a little too short for him. As a three-year-old, he won back to back races at the distance, winning the Irish Runner Handicap easily and then devastating a strong field in the Grade II Cribart.com, making up over a dozen on the turn and winning by three and a quarter. He earned a huge speed rating of 116, which he eclipsed only once since, posting a 121 while crushing a huge field of sixteen rivals in the Grade I London Fog Stakes in Vermont. Two starts later, he\u2019s flying at the end of the Breeder\u2019s Bowl Classic, coming from last to finish third, moving fastest of all in the final three-sixteenths.<\/P>

So what\u2019s the point here, eh? Is it that Parker\u2019s a piece of crap without hope? Hell no. In fact, a case could easily be made that on the basis of talent, Parker may be at or at least near the top in this field. His best race probably is as good or better than the best race of most of his rivals. The caveat is running style, his foray into marathon races, the illusion that he\u2019s running out of ground at ten furlongs, much less nine, and a seeming lack of required pace for him to handle a \u2018short\u2019 route. Do I think that he\u2019ll win on Saturday? No. Does that alone improve his chances by ten lengths. Yes.<\/P>

Leave The Reef <\/B>is in the same boat as Parker. In fact, when Parker won the Gotta Fix the Sprinklers in Arizona, this guy was making his run behind<\/I> Parker. This one actually is probably going to try to fall farther off the lead than Parker. That\u2019s not good. <\/P>

What is good is that he was absolutely zero factor in his most recent, the Grade I Delaware Handicap in which Unprecedented ran third. Why in earth is that good? Well, this son of Deputy Minister absolutely refuses to run consecutive good races with any regularity. Yeah, but does that guarantee that he\u2019ll run a good one \u2013 I mean he\u2019s not opposed to running two stinkers in a row, right? You\u2019ve got me there, he will run two bad ones. But he will run two good ones too, it\u2019s just that more often than not, he alternates good and bad performances.<\/P>

More good news for fans \u2013 He actually loves the nine furlong distance, despite the running style. He has won four races in 2005, two at a mile and an eighth, two at a mile and three-sixteenths. And those weren\u2019t rotten fields, he took the Grade I Oaktree Handicap in dramatic fashion early in the year and put on a dazzling show for the folks in Jersey when he surged home in the Grade III Jerzey City Handicap. When he\u2019s on his game, he\u2019s fun to watch. When he\u2019s not, there\u2019s nothing to watch.<\/P>

Slither<\/B>, like Leave the Reef, is a son of Deputy Minister and also like his rival, will be trying to make up a lot of ground late. Also like Slither, he made a big run in the Oaktree, but wound up third to Leave the Reef\u2019s first. I guess the similarities end there. Unlike the former, Slither is a bit more consistent, but I\u2019m inclined to believe that the former\u2019s best race is superior to Slither\u2019s. In other words, if both run to their potential, I suspect Leave the Reef runs the better race and if only Slither runs to his potential, I\u2019m still not sure he\u2019s much of a threat.<\/P>

To his credit, not only does he own a win at the distance, but it is a Grade II win in the Statewide Pinhead Guild Stakes and probably registers as his best race to date. Still, like many, he looks to be a victim of the pace, and even if that tangible doesn\u2019t victimize him, he still looks to be a victim of a few superior racehorses.<\/P>

Okay, so his only two decent recent efforts are at a mile and an eighth, a stakes win and a stakes second with a big speed number. Does that mean that Native Chase<\/B> deserves serious consideration? No, not at all. Are those reasons to stop and pause before completely eliminating him from consideration? Well, okay \u2013 but those two nine furlong races are about the only compelling evidence to give him a look. <\/P>

He\u2019s been thumped in allowances, knocked around in minor stakes, walloped in graded races. Yes, he has done some encouraging things here and there \u2013 he was a decent fourth, no threat, but still fourth in the Grade I Cosmopolitan over this track and retains his pilot from that day, Stanislav Coomer. But the lows appear to overwhelm the highs, and the highs don\u2019t look nearly towering enough to make a convincing case, especially given his lack of early foot.<\/P>

Which four-time Grade I winner, two of which are at nine furlongs, has earned over a million and a half dollars, is undefeated over New York\u2019s main track, and yet looks totally hopeless? Well, if you\u2019ve been paying attention throughout, you know we\u2019re down to just a pair of remaining possibilities. Yes, Kiki\u2019s Storm Opera <\/B>looks totally and completely without hope in this race at first glance. And second glance.<\/P>

But on third glance, you notice a few reasons that may leave you considering his number. I\u2019ve already given you a few as teasers, so let me expand on the one that I like most \u2013 the record at New York.<\/P>

About two years ago, at the tail end of 2003, Kiki\u2019s Storm Opera had just finished running dead last, distanced in a minor stakes in Canada when his name appeared among the nominees for the Grade I Sterile Mile in New York. The three-year-old was laughed at when he appeared on the list of entries, despite intermittently stellar performances against other three-year-olds throughout the year. He was sent off at 37-1, the co-longest shot on the board (ironically, sharing it with Turbo Kiki). From post twelve, he was wide throughout, but in a good spot, drew closer at the quarter-pole and ran off to win easily. The final time of 1:33.4 lowered the track record at the time and earned the three-year-old easily the best speed rating of his career, a 122, among the best that season.<\/P>

Over a year ago, towards the midway part of 2004, Kiki\u2019s Storm Opera contested the Grade I Oaktree Handicap. He ran last, was distanced and got a little time off. When he did return, it was in the Grade I Cosmopolitan Handicap, run here, in New York. At odds of 55-1, by far the longest shot on the board, the son of T. M. Opera O broke from post fourteen, was wide, but just off the pace, made an early move for the lead, drew clear and held off a late surge. Not only did he win, but he covered a flat mile in 1:33.3, lowering the track record, and earning a career best speed rating of 124, a monster number. <\/P>

He has run thirty-five times and these two races absolutely jump off his form as the two best in his career. Much of everything else on his form, whether in 2005, 2004, or 2003, is more or less a jumbled mess. Turf races at a mile, sprints on dirt, a mile and three-quarters in stakes, five-eighths in allowances. Big wins, complete annihilations \u2013 his form could not be more erratic. But there is one, exactly one thing, that remains consistent on his form \u2013 one huge upset win in New York, in a major Grade I race, in every calendar year of his career since he turned three. <\/P>

At times, it pays dividends to ignore the obvious, forget the tenets of handicapping and put your faith and money into that which seems to happen without reason. The hard part is predicting something that will happen, seemingly without reason. Actually, it\u2019s kind of oxymoronic. I saved the \u2018nugget\u2019 for those of you that may have actually stuck around for the entire diatribe.<\/P>

How can I put this, well, gently? Hasty Moe<\/B> has no shot. At all. None. Needs eight breakdowns to save jock mount. Just in recent races, he\u2019s run in allowances seven times, at odds of 29-1, 28-1, 33-1, 29-1, 80-1, 96-1, and 37-1. In those races he\u2019s been beaten a total in excess of 150 lengths, not once close enough to finish within single digit beaten lengths. He tried a minor stakes race once amidst those allowance trouncings, was 147-1, beat one horse in a field of twelve and that was probably the best race in that span. If he wasn\u2019t consistently getting murdered race after race, seemingly going out of his way to be in a bad spot, I\u2019d be certain that he was in here at the request of another trainer looking to infuse some speed into the race. That seems unlikely by default, only because the default seems to be that he\u2019s always overmatched.<\/P>

Worse yet, I don\u2019t think even if you got Wilfredo Gutierrez to pack two machines and three sticks in each hand and paid him ten grand to ride this one like he\u2019s going 220 yards that he\u2019d see the front.<\/P><\/FONT><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Divisional Leaders Battle Pace First, Each Other Second<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":200,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/676","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/200"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=676"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/676\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=676"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=676"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=676"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}