On a weekend with so many great 3-year-old races in the SIM, we find a good one here in California with a group of fourteen fillies heading to post for the Grade I $750,000 United Oaks. The race will be run at a mile and a quarter (10 furlongs) over a firm turf. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
QUEEN SUGAR and I\u2019M A SINNER are the lukewarm 7\/1 favorites in what is a stacked field with six G1 winners. Let\u2019s take a closer look at the field:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1 – BOTTLE OF BEAM, 9\/1 (owner twirlingcandy)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
About as consistent as you\u2019ll see in a young filly, this daughter of Lonhro has never finished worse than second in eight career starts. Her form has peaked beautifully in the past few races, as she has won three straight, including a dominant win in the Group I French Diana in late May, where she romped by 2 \u00bd lengths. She\u2019ll cut back in distance a bit today, but this looks like a really good spot for her as she makes her first U.S. start. A major player in this field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2 – NO NAY JUSTICE, 9\/1 (owner fairhaven12)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You couldn\u2019t ask for a better bloodline with this filly (No Nay Never x Frankel (GB) x Deputy Minister) and she has already racked up more than $250,000 in career earnings. She\u2019s coming off a nice win in the Grade III Wynn Point in New York in May, although that was in a field of six. Despite that, she posted a career-best SP of 104, a major improvement over her past starts. Her only G1 start was over in Japan in March, and she was never really involved, finishing tenth. However, that was at 8 furlongs, and the stretchout to 9 furlongs last time out seemed to help. Despite No Nay Never being more of a sprint sire, perhaps this is the Frankel in the bloodline shining through. If that\u2019s the case, she can compete in this spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3 – PARAXYLENE, 10\/1 (owner valesa9)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This Japanese-bred has been quite the world traveler in her young SIM career, having already raced on four continents in six career starts. She returns stateside after racing in the Group I Sydney Oaks back in April. She struggled badly in that race, finishing eighth. Her other start in the U.S. was in February in the Grade I Vermont is 4 Lovers, where she finished a solid second in a deep field. Her consistency through that race shows that she can compete at this level. The question is whether that last start was a struggle because of the stretchout in distance (12 furlongs). There\u2019s a lot of early speed in this race – could she come from behind and steal it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4 – MARINA ANGEL, 9\/1 (owner beergarden)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This filly has been sending mixed signals of late, going from a dominate three-length victory in the Sydney Oaks in April to fading to seventh in the G1 Oaks de English last time out. She\u2019s had mixed results in G1 races so far in her career, and her SP numbers have plateaued a bit of late. With all of the early speed in this race, she may have to work pretty hard to stay up front early on. If that\u2019s the case, she may fade toward the end as she has in some of the other G1 starts. One of the bigger question marks in this field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
5 – DUR ROCKS, 19\/1 (owner guru8)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This Aussie-bred by Fastnet Rock had a great 2-year-old campaign, rattling off a couple of quick wins and then hitting the board in both of her graded stakes starts last fall. However, she has been struggling to recapture that form in her 3-year-old season. Two starts have not turned out too bad with a third- and fourth-place finish, but there have been a couple of rough starts, including last time out when she finished a distant ninth. She returns to 10 furlongs, where she had her best performance of the year in April. Her recent SP numbers are not on par with most of the rest of this group, and she\u2019ll need to find another gear in this spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
6 – NEW CONFESSION, 8\/1 (owner megabucks)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here we find an interesting set of stat lines – a horse who has never raced in a non-stakes race. After starting her career by winning an owner-restricted maiden stakes race last September, she has been on a steady upward trajectory. In her four starts this year (all graded stakes races), she has hit the board in all four races. Her two victories were open-length wins, including her last start in Paris in the G1 Saint Larry back in May. She seems to love 10 furlongs, making her very dangerous in this spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
7 – ANNY WALKER, 9\/1 (owner beerkeg25)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here we have another filly coming off of a G1 win at 10 furlongs, as ANNY did it down in South Africa back in May in the Wooly Mammoth. She won that race with an SP of 107, the best number in this field. Looking at her stakes performances, her best performances have all come over yielding surfaces. She has finished first or second in her four starts on a yielding course, while she finished sixth and ninth in her two starts over a firm turf. Both of those were G1 starts (one a Breeders\u2019 Bowl race), so it\u2019s possible those were just tough spots, but I would have expected a better showing in the Sydney Oaks. One of the wildcards of the race – that last start shows she can win in a race like this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
8 – THE BRIGHT HERO, 8\/1 (owner spunhard)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This filly by Win Bright (JPN) has already been claimed (or at least changed hands) twice in her young career. She broke her maiden back in December by open lengths against the boys in Japan, which certainly stands out in the past performances. After very consistent performances late last year and early this year, it looks like she was claimed for $60,000 in March. Since then, new owner spunhard has tried her in stakes company, winning a listed stakes in March and then (following a fifth-place finish in a G3 race in France in April) finished a close second in the Grade II Full Moon over this California course in May. While it\u2019s an unusual path to this spot, could she use that knowledge of this California surface to her advantage here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
9 – MIDNIGHT GROOVE, 9\/1 (owner foxon4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And just next door to THE BRIGHT HERO, we find the winner of that Grade II Full Moon Handicap in California, putting up an impressive SP of 106 in the process. So, she also has some experience over this turf course. She has been hot and cold since November, with victories in a G2 and G3 race, but struggling in the G1 races. She did not fare too well in the Sydney Oaks, and with many of those horses running in this spot (who finished better than MIDNIGHT GROOVE), she\u2019ll need to rattle off a second good start in a row, something she hasn\u2019t been able to do in a bit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
10 – SINGLE LADIES, 13\/1 (owner gowans2016)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This Irish-bred filly by Night of Thunder is a tough one to gauge, as she is just starting to get her feet wet in stakes company. She was victorious in an ungraded stakes race back in April, and then was a game second in the Group I Diana Grand Prix over in Germany on May 18th. Outside of the winner of that race (SCIOPTIC), I do have questions about how deep that field was, as there was only one other graded stakes winner in the field. Also, her SP of 98 was actually lower than her ungraded win. If she takes another step forward, though, she can be a factor here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
11 – PINK KORNSNAKE, 21\/1 (owner korn)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s interesting that one of the G1 winners in this field is the longest shot on the board, but I think that\u2019s a testament to how deep this field is. PINK is looking to regroup here following a disappointing showing in the Japanese Oaks back in May. Her G1 start back in March was a victory in the Stormy Stakes down in Australia, where she beat NEW CONFESSION, one of the favorites in this race. Her only other graded stakes start was last fall, but that was against the boys, so that\u2019s a throw-away line. I could see her making some noise here, but I suspect she\u2019s a cut just below this group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
12 – QUEEN SUGAR, 7\/1 (owner tfon4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I talked about how PARAXYLENE was the world traveler, but this German-bred daughter of Japan has her beat. SUGAR coming to North America will be her fifth continent in eleven career starts. Impressive! She will go off as one of the co-favorites despite not having won a graded stakes race yet. She does have an open-length win in an ungraded stakes in April and has competed fairly well in her graded starts, including a third in the Wooly Mammoth last time out in South Africa. Her SP numbers have been better in her past two starts, and she may be able to build on those efforts and finally get that first graded stakes win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
13 – I\u2019M A SINNER, 7\/1 (owner assrdub)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Right next door, we find the other co-favorite, but she is a multiple G1-winner, winning the Juvenile Filly in Japan in December, and then following that up with a win in the Vermont is 4 Lovers. After a solid finish in the 1000 Guineas, owner assrdub tried her against the boys in the Derby de English, where she was never involved and finished a distant 16th. That was a loaded field and this will be a much better spot for her. I think she has a nice chance to bounce back here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
14 – GIANT\u2019S RIB, 16\/1 (owner stormrun)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another filly to come out of the G1 Saint Larry over in France on May 4th, she finished a solid second in that race. That was an impressive feat considering that was her first stakes start. The Irish-bred daughter of Ribchester has two allowance wins before that. She has been steadily improving, especially this season, and that triple-digit SP number in the last start does give some hope. However, she\u2019ll likely find a tougher field here, so she\u2019ll have to be ready to fight if she wants part of the purse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
My Picks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1 – BOTTLE OF BEAM, 9\/1 – I\u2019ll look to the rail here and go with the super-consistent filly. If she can sit just off the early pace, I like her chances here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
6 – NEW CONFESSION, 8\/1 – Another consistent filly, she\u2019s coming off a nice win over in France. A repeat of that performance puts her right in the mix here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
13 – I\u2019M A SINNER, 7\/1 – The leading earner in the field, if you ignore the race against the boys last time out, she\u2019s as good as anyone in here. The bounce-back play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
7 – ANNY WALKER, 9\/1 – I still worry about her consistency and her poor performances on firm turf in recent races, but that win last time out was impressive. A true wildcard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
9 – MIDNIGHT GROOVE, 9\/1 – Has a back-and-forth pattern that is not favorable and has not fared well in G1 races, but her last start shows she belongs here. Can she take the next step?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Good luck to all!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
On a weekend with so many great 3-year-old races in the SIM, we find a good one here in California<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39998,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-67514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67514","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39998"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=67514"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67514\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":67551,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67514\/revisions\/67551"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=67514"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=67514"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=67514"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}