{"id":67483,"date":"2024-06-27T00:08:43","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T00:08:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=67483"},"modified":"2024-06-27T00:08:48","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T00:08:48","slug":"stallion-shares-used-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=67483","title":{"rendered":"Stallion Shares Used 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

July makes the halfway point of the SIM season and a good demarcation point to look at breeding trends among the player base for 2024. We cannot look at a stallions runners and double them, extrapolating the same usage for the rest of the year, since most players have done the majority of their breeding now. We can, however, look at the trends emerging and see which stallions are most commercial. Eighteen stallions have reached 100 runners at the halfway mark. Another five are ready to hit it with another six in the 80s that will cross the threshold at some point this summer. Let’s take a look at the breeding trends of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

THE ELITE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tapit<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tapit leads the way with 245 runners. He had 588 last year, which has to be near a SIM high, and is the poster child for stallion share limits. He likely won’t reach that number again this year, especially since he’s 41st on the 2024 Bloodhorse stallion list and his best days are behind him. Tapit would be prime for a downgrade next season, but the SIM doesn’t always catch up with real-life breeding – both Distorted Humor and Awesome Again continued to produce far above their real life level in the SIM years after they were no longer elite in real life. Tapit, in the SIM, has 31.8% winners with 2 SW in 2024. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Curlin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other top US sire is second on the list with 212 runners. Curlin had 343 runners last season, the most he’s ever had. He’ll likely cross the 300 barrier again this year. Interestingly, neither Curlin nor Tapit are spring chickens. When both are pensioned, we are looking at a staggering 700 or so breeding shares per season that have to be dispersed elsewhere. Curlin has 36.3% winners and one SW. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Into Mischief<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not quite at 200 yet, Into Mischief has 191 runners. He’s likely going to absorb many of those 700 shares I just mentioned and will be a future 400+ share-a-season stallion. Last year he had 328 runners, his most ever. Changes to breeding points seem only to have driven the shares among these stallions even higher. Into Mischief isn’t as good in terms of producing historical graded winners as either Tapit or Curlin in the SIM, but he constantly has horses on the Derby trail in real life and looks to be a major figure in American racing for a while. He has 30.9% winners and one SW among his two-year-olds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

THE GREAT<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Justify<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Justify solidified his status as an emerging, elite sire in real life by siring the 2024 Epsom Derby winner City of Troy, a remarkable feat for an American stallion. Justify clearly isn’t going the route of fellow Triple Crown Winner, American Pharaoh, who took a massive SIM downgrade. Justify looks like he is a year or two away from being a dominant force in American and International racing. On paper, that isn’t surprising, Justify’s pedigree is filled with sires of sires and American Pharaoh has a pedestrian pedigree. He has 166 runners in the SIM. He had 238 last year and 237 the year before. Seems to be tracking toward that again in a showing of remarkable player consistency with Justify. Now that he’s producing major horses and players no longer have to worry about a downgrade to his numbers, I would expect Justify to cross the 300 mark next season. He has 29.5% winners and the second most stakes winners with 5. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gun Runner<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gun Runner has elevated himself into the ranks of the top SIM stallions. I’m still dubious about his value – he gets about half the graded runners that the stallions above him do but he costs almost as much. Still, he clearly has a fan base with 161 runners. He had 260 last year, his career high. He has 29.2% and three SW. If we look at Gun Runner and Justify, both have nearly the same breedings and very similar two-year-old runners. However, Justify doubles Gun Runners when we get into older horses. There are 84 bids on Justify and 66 on Gun Runner. Justify is only about 60 points higher than Gun Runner. I’ve never understood the rationale behind Gun Runner’s market in the SIM. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frankel<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, a turf horse! After dirt stallions dominated the top five, Frankel makes his case with 160 runners. Frankel had 376 last year and 331 the year before. Players could be breeding to him less this year, or maybe people breed their Frankel’s later in the year trying for 10+ furlong horses. 29.4% and 1 SW for him. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

No Nay Never<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With 159 runners, No Nay Never holds down spot 7 in most bred stallions. He is easily the best high-end choice for people looking to get a good 2yo. 43.4% winner and 8 SW, both far and away the highest among the select stallions. Only two stallions clear the 40% 2yo winner barrier from those we are looking at (I Am Invincible and Nyquist being the others). Probably undervalued. 230 and 244 runners from the past two seasons. You can argue No Nay Never is both the best sire in the SIM and the most underrated blue blood. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

War Front<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With 137 runners there is a drop-off between War Front and No Nay Never. NNN dominates War Front who has 30.7% and 1 SW. War Front had 230 and 209 runners in the last two years. He probably should be about 100-150 less than what he’s going for. Again, there really isn’t much of a cost difference between War Front and Into Mischief but there is a large gap in production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flightline<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flightline was born on third base in the SIM receiving a published massive grade. However, his 135 runners this year is a large downgrade from the 343 he had last season. This is probably because Flightline is very much rated as a boom-or-bust horse. He has 31 SW and 11 GW from last year, but only a 62% win rate. That means 38% of the Flightlines people spent a fortune on last year are still maidens in July of their 3yo season. That’s likely extremely irritating and discourages people from going back to Flightline. He’s at 28.9% with 2 SW this year so far. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dubawi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rounding out the top ten is Dubawi. Like Frankel, he likely picks up more breedings as the year goes deeper so his 129 will likely increase. They are unlikely to approach the 389 he had last year though so people are moving away from Dubawi. He’s still fine but often priced in the Tapit range. 31% and 2 SW. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

THE VERY GOOD CENTURY MARK CLUB<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next eight stallions all have over 100 runners. They don’t pull quite as many breedings at the top ten for a variety of reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n