{"id":6711,"date":"2008-10-09T14:55:12","date_gmt":"2008-10-09T14:55:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=6711"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=6711","title":{"rendered":"Too Close to Call in Italy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Welcome to Italy for the 8th<\/SUP> running of the Premium Jockey Guild Stakes<\/B>, a grade 3 event for horses 3 years old and up.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Today we have 9 horse going for the win and their share in the $150,000 purse going 9 furlongs on the firm turf.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Most of the horses in today\u2019s field are 4 and 5 year olds, but we do have one 6 year old who could be crowned the winner.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Before we look ahead, let\u2019s look back at the history of the race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

The record for the Premium Jockey Guild Stakes<\/B> is held by the 2003 winner, Rockland, trained by czarina.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He was retired last year after winning 3 graded races, finishing in the money 5 times and bringing home well over $1 million for his connections.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He ran the 9 furlongs in 1:48 3\/5.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>All but 3 horses in the field have posted higher than Rockland\u2019s 110, so we could definitely see a new record holder at the end of the day.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

Most of the previous winners have come off either a win in a graded or listed stakes or a very strong showing.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>We only have two horses in the field that have done that, Thick and Thin<\/B> and Draco<\/B>, two of the horses tied for second choice.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Also, this race has only been won by a horse who didn\u2019t already have a graded victory twice.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>There are only two horses in the field who meet that criteria, Draco<\/B> and Artificial Crisis<\/B>.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

Let\u2019s take a look at the field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 1\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>BARCABAA (KY)\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/B>(ANABAA x DAMASCUS x HABITAT) bred by xssessiv <\/B>and trained by whizzo <\/B>(B4rca Stables, 8%)\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Odds: \u00a0<\/SPAN>11 to 1<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

Out of post position one and wearing blue and red silks is Barcabaa representing B4rca stables and RASH.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He is a 4 year old son of Anabaa who typically produces turf sprinters, but since his trainer switched him to dirt he has won 30% of his races and finished itm 60% of the time.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He is a stakes winner and is coming off a third place finish in an overnight stakes, but he hasn\u2019t had success when he has tried to move up in class to graded races.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He last tried graded stakes late in July and it might have been August by the time he crossed the finish line.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He had a long rest and came back with a 105 his last time out.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He tends to run just off the pace and this field has a lot of late speed, so a great start out of the gates would really help Barcabaa\u2019s chances.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 2\u00a0 <\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN>DARKEST HOUR (AUS)\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/B>(FASTNET ROCK (AUS) x RAINBOW QUEST x KINGMAMBO) bred <\/B>and trained by earthsong \u00a0<\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN><\/B>(Next Bonus Racing, 15%)<\/SPAN>\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Odds: 13 to 1<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

Darkest Hour from Next Bonus Racing and Great Plains residency has a lot in common with Barcabaa in pp1.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>They have both had a lot of success in allowance races, but have had a hard time against graded company.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Last out for Darkest Hour was at the G1-Maudlin Cup <\/B>at the end of September.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>And like the horse next to him, he had a miserable time of it, finishing last with a sp of 32.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It has been over 2 months since then and he is coming back from the lay off with another try against graded company.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Darkest Hour is a son of Fastnet Rock, only in his 4th<\/SUP> year as a sire and he only has one graded winner to date.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Darkest Hour will have a lot to overcome to make that 2 graded winners for Fastnet Rock here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 3\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>SIMPLY SMASHING (IRE)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/B>(EL PRADO (IRE) x STAGE DOOR JOHNNY x LE FABULEUX) bred <\/B>by testcase1 <\/B>and trained by wtas10 <\/B>(Wtas10 Stables, 15<\/SPAN>%)\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Odds:\u00a0 <\/SPAN>7 to 1<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

After winning only 3 races in 17 tries for testcase1, wtas<\/B> pickedhim up for $25,000 in a claiming race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Since changing stables Simply Smashing has won six times and has shown dramatic improvement when his new trainer raced him in routes instead of sprints.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He is making his graded debut here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In early July this son of El Prado won his first and only stakes with his career high speed of 108.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Not only to we have a class question with this horse, he also has never run this distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has won at both 8 \u00bd and 9 \u00bd, but this will be his first try at 9.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 4\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>BENIDIGO\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/B>(GONE WEST x SPINNING WORLD x RED RANSOM)\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>bred and trained by cuprunners <\/B>(Tulloch Stables, 11<\/SPAN>%)\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Odds:\u00a0 <\/SPAN>9 to 2<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

Benidigo is coming off a career high speed last time out \u00a0<\/SPAN>the G1-Canada Mile <\/B>where he put up a 113 in his 4th<\/SUP> place finish.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This scratch bred son of Gone West has been racing in this class since last spring and he hasn\u2019t won a graded race yet, but it looks like today that might change.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His best finish against graded company came in June at the G1- The Prince of Wells<\/B> \u00a0<\/SPAN>where he finished 2nd<\/SUP>.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Since then he had a almost two months off.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He is tied for \u00a0<\/SPAN>the highest career high speed in the race and that was in his last race, so he if can do something similar here he definitely has a good shot at the winner\u2019s circle. \u00a0\u00a0<\/SPAN>He is the first of three horses in the field the oddmakers put at second.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 5\u00a0 <\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN>DRACO\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/B>(SADLER\u2019S WELL x A.P. INDY x UNBRIDLED)\u00a0 <\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN>bred <\/B>by tesio <\/B>and trained by spqr <\/B>(SPQR Stables, 17%)\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Odds: 9 to 2<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

Draco is a 5 year old scratch bred son of Sadler\u2019s Wells.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He is coming off a win in a listed stakes at this distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He is the only horse in the field to be coming into this race off a win.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Like so many other horses in the field Draco has been successful in allowance races, but hasn\u2019t been able to put it all together against graded company.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He does have the recent stakes win, which a few other horses in the field don\u2019t have.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Like Benidigo next to him, he is a late runner, so an early speed dual would be to his advantage.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He also has the top jockey for Italy, Lebreche.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He is also the only jockey to have multiple wins in this race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 6 \u00a0<\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN>BEN \u00a0<\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN><\/B>(COZZENE x BLACK TIE AFFAIR (IRE) x BUCKSPLASHER) bred <\/B>by mia <\/B>and trained by stallanden <\/B>(Stal Landen vzw,10%)\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Odds: \u00a0<\/SPAN>9 to 1<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

Ben is sandwiched between the 5 horses that the oddsmakers gave the best odds on.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He is making his graded debut here and has only tried stakes once before.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That race was two tries ago in August at this same distance and this son of Cozzene finished 6th<\/SUP>.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>About a year ago Ben was claimed from Mia and Ben\u2019s Acres for $100,000.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Since then she has only finished out of the money 3 times, once was on an off track and the other was his first attempted at stakes.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Ben\u2019s career high speed of 108 was at this distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 7\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>ARTIFICIAL CRISIS\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/B>(MACHIAVELLIAN x SILVER HAWK x PLEASANT COLONY) bred and trained by nowitsdark <\/B>(Psychloan Stables, 11<\/SPAN>%)\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Odds:\u00a0 <\/SPAN>4 to 1<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

While there are three horses tied for second favorite, Artificial Crisis holds the title of favorite all by himself.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He is also one of only two horses in the field to have proven himself in this class.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This 6 year old son of Machiavellian has been running in graded stakes exclusively for over two years.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He hasn\u2019t put up a speed factor under the triple digit mark in well over a year.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He only won once and finished in the money twice, but both those times were also in G3, as opposed to the G1s and G2s he had been running in. <\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 8\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>THICK AND THIN (JPN)\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/B>(FORTY NINER x SEATTLE SLEW x ALYDAR) bred and trained by sdmf9 <\/B>(Black Label Stables, 18%)\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Odds:\u00a0 <\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN>9 to 2<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

Thick and Thin is the third horse in the field with odds of 9 to 2.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This 4 year old scratch bred son of Forty Niner is making only his second career start on the grass.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has been brining in the bps and cash for the Black Label Stables, finishing in the money on the dirt 5 out of his last 7 races, but he hasn\u2019t won since February and sdmf9 is looking for the win.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His first try on turf was a third place finish in an allowance race with a speed factor similar to what he had been doing on the dirt.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If he is able to put up a similar speed to his last time out, a 113, he could definitely be in the mix here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It would not be a stretch for him to like the turf, he has won 50% of his races on good or sloppy tracks.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

PP 9 \u00a0\u00a0<\/SPAN>ELUFLY\u2019S GOLDIE\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/B>(ELUSIVE QUALITY x SEEKING THE GOLD x DANZIG) bred <\/B>and trained by shazfly \u00a0<\/SPAN><\/B>(Brundlefly Stables, 12<\/SPAN>%)\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Odds: 5 to 1<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

Last we have Elufly\u2019s Goldie out of post position 9.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This 5 year old son of Elusive Quality got most of his wins in his third year and early in his fourth year.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In fact he has only won once since February of his 4th<\/SUP> year.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has been racing in graded company and has had some races where he has come close.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He is still competitive, finishing in the money in 5 of his 9 races this year.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His career high speed of 112, close to the highest in the field, came at this distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

I agree with the oddmakers that these horses are pretty evenly matched.\u00a0 I expect the three from the inside to go for the early lead, but the favorites are all late runners and I think we will see a lot of jockeying for position as they come down the stretch.\u00a0 Because of his win last time out, having the top jockey and his late running style, I will say Draco<\/STRONG> for the win followed by Bendigo <\/STRONG>and Thick and Thin.\u00a0 <\/STRONG>Good luck and happy racing.\u00a0 \ud83d\ude42\u00a0 <\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Artifical Crisis is favored, but 4 others not far behind<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":252,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/252"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6711"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6711\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}