{"id":64387,"date":"2023-10-19T16:48:40","date_gmt":"2023-10-19T16:48:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=64387"},"modified":"2023-10-19T16:48:42","modified_gmt":"2023-10-19T16:48:42","slug":"more-data-nonsense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=64387","title":{"rendered":"More Data Nonsense"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We did the nerd stream the other night and in prepping for it found me going down a data rabbit hole of sorts. I did not really get an opportunity to go through all the analytics live so I figured I would write up a story on what it was I pulled. If you didn\u2019t catch the stream its over on our YouTube channel found here: Derby Fever<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mare Pass Attributes Analysis:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Every mare in the game has a rating called \u201cPass Attributes\u201d. The name is exactly as it sounds as this is the mare\u2019s chance of passing her ratings\/attributes to her progeny. The way this rating works is in a loop so the chance the mare has to pass its ratings\/attributes is applied to each individual rating as its own check. Example: The Pass Attributes rating = 50, Rating1 may be based off the mare, whereas Rating2 could be based off the sire. There is no real way for us to track which rating came from where for a specific horse, however I wanted to pass along a breakdown of the rating for mares. For complete clarity this only looks at mares not he-mares. For this particular analysis every mare in the game was used.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

23% of mares have a less than 50% chance to pass their attributes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

23% of mares have a 50-60% chance to pass their attributes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

27% of mares have a 60-70% chance to pass their attributes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

19% of mares have a 70-80% chance to pass their attributes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7% of mares have an 80-90% chance to pass their attributes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

1% of mares have a 90-100% chance to pass their attributes.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This is a very loose interpretation of the data so please take it with a grain of salt. This is not to say that horses will be limited to a speed number. It’s up to the player to get them there and beyond.

21% of horses can likely run 110 or higher.
50% of horses can likely run 100 or higher.
72% of horses can likely run 90 or higher.
90% of horses can likely run 80 or higher. (this means 10% of horses likely will not be able to obtain an 80 speed fig)
1% of horses can likely run 120 or higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The graphs below will tell a much more direct story. I used races from 2023 that were not hot races and had 5 or more horses in the field.

Definitions for distance are as follows: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sprint <= 7.5F<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Route between 8F and 10F<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long >= 10.5F<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speed 2yo<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Distance<\/strong><\/td>AVG Dirt Winning Speed<\/strong><\/td>Avg Turf<\/strong> Winning Speed<\/strong><\/td>Type<\/strong><\/td>Age<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>75.17<\/td>75.53<\/td>Maiden<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>86.38<\/td>83.68<\/td>Maiden<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>78.04<\/td>77.17<\/td>Allowance<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>86.38<\/td>85.81<\/td>Allowance<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>82.45<\/td>82.18<\/td>Stakes<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>91.04<\/td>90.78<\/td>Stakes<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>86.8<\/td>89.39<\/td>Graded<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>94.68<\/td>92.8<\/td>Graded<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Speed 3yo<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Distance<\/strong><\/td>AVG Dirt Winning Speed<\/strong><\/td>Avg Turf<\/strong> Winning Speed<\/strong><\/td>Type<\/strong><\/td>Age<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>88.65<\/td>88.69<\/td>Maiden<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>94.77<\/td>94.19<\/td>Maiden<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Long<\/td>95.85<\/td>95.85<\/td>Maiden<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>92.48<\/td>91.23<\/td>Claimers 75K+<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>97.07<\/td>97.28<\/td> Claimers 75K+ <\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Long<\/td>90.04<\/td>91.40<\/td> Claimers 75K+ <\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>88.05<\/td>87.32<\/td>Claimers < 75K<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>93.31<\/td>93.21<\/td> Claimers < 75K <\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Long<\/td>86.47<\/td>86.64<\/td> Claimers < 75K <\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>86.32<\/td>85.71<\/td>Claimers <10K<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>91.64<\/td>90.57<\/td>Claimers <10K<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Long<\/td>85.15<\/td>86.79<\/td>Claimers <10K<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>96.06<\/td>95.36<\/td>Allowance<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>100.86<\/td>100.85<\/td>Allowance<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Long<\/td>97.86<\/td>99.98<\/td>Allowance<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>101.44<\/td>100.57<\/td>Stakes<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>106.10<\/td>105.81<\/td>Stakes<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Long<\/td>105.45<\/td>105.53<\/td>Stakes<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>104.96<\/td>106.47<\/td>Graded<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>109.42<\/td>107.8<\/td>Graded<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Long<\/td>106.14<\/td>104.76<\/td>Graded<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Speed 3yo+<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Distance<\/strong><\/td>AVG Dirt Winning Speed<\/strong><\/td>Avg Turf<\/strong> Winning Speed<\/strong><\/td>Type<\/strong><\/td>Age<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>91.82<\/td>91.16<\/td>Maiden<\/td>3+<\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>98.69<\/td>98.17<\/td>Maiden<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Long<\/td>87.39<\/td>91.28<\/td>Maiden<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>99.94<\/td>96.52<\/td>Claimers 75K+<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>105.38<\/td>103.89<\/td> Claimers 75K+ <\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Long<\/td>95.10<\/td>97.59<\/td> Claimers 75K+ <\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>96<\/td>92.98<\/td>Claimers < 75K<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>100.83<\/td>99.96<\/td> Claimers < 75K <\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Long<\/td>90.45<\/td>92.47<\/td> Claimers < 75K <\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>94.84<\/td>91.99<\/td>Claimers <10K<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>99.68<\/td>98.37<\/td>Claimers <10K<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Long<\/td>88.87<\/td>91.26<\/td>Claimers <10K<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>103.51<\/td>101.89<\/td>Allowance<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>108.37<\/td>107.6<\/td>Allowance<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Long<\/td>102.53<\/td>103.26<\/td>Allowance<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>110.25<\/td>108.94<\/td>Stakes<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>114.91<\/td>114.34<\/td>Stakes<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Long<\/td>109.57<\/td>110.46<\/td>Stakes<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Sprint<\/td>113.37<\/td>112.89<\/td>Graded<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Route<\/td>117.98<\/td>116.66<\/td>Graded<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr>
Long<\/td>111.7<\/td>115.33<\/td>Graded<\/td> 3+ <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Wire to Wire Runners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I cannot remember offhand, but I believe it might have been Stoners who asked about a wire-to-wire analysis a while back. Once again using data from 2023 with 5 runners or more and no hot races included in the dataset.

22% of races go wire-to-wire.
23% of all long races go wire-to-wire.
20% of all routes go wire-to-wire.
24% of all sprints go wire-to-wire.

Dirt<\/strong>
25% of all dirt long races go wire-to-wire.
20% of all dirt route races go wire-to-wire.
23% of all dirt sprint races go wire-to-wire.

Turf<\/strong>
22% of all turf long races go wire-to-wire.
21% of all turf route races go wire-to-wire.
24% of all turf sprint races go wire-to-wire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

What does all this mean? I don’t know, but I figured we geeked out yesterday and I pulled some data so I might as well share it with the community. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We did the nerd stream the other night and in prepping for it found me going down a data rabbit<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":124228,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/124228"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=64387"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64387\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64393,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64387\/revisions\/64393"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=64387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=64387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=64387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}