A couple of weeks ago I posted the official upgrade\/downgrade list for 2023. Among the changes made was a downgrade of Justify. Mike and Frank have since clarified that the 2018 American Triple Crown winner was just tweaked in an effort to keep the overall sire pool in balance and that the changes to his rating were just tenths of a point. For those who have not watched the great videos that Frank has been doing I highly recommend them. There is a lot of info (such as this) that gets released there that doesn\u2019t make it to the BTB or the message board. But since there was a clarification on this point I thought it would be a good time to take a look at just how good Justify is as a young sire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The impetus for this look is the back-to-back successes of two two year olds in Europe the weekend of July 15\/16. On the 15th<\/sup> his son City of Troy so dominated the Group Two Superlative Stakes in England that he was immediately made the early favorite for the 2024 2000 Guineas. If you like him you get the not-so-juicy price of 4\/1 in the futures betting. Then on the 16th<\/sup> his daughter Ramatuelle won the Group Two Prix Robert Papin in France. That added to a group three score she\u2019d scored a month previous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This was the second weekend where Justify babies made waves. A week prior his three year old crop took center stage, highlighted by a Grade One win in the Grade One Belmont Oaks Invitational by his daughter Aspen Grove. The Irish-based filly was a group three winner in her home country in 2022. On the dirt Justify\u2019s son Verifying earned his first graded stakes victory in the Grade Three Indiana Derby. Previously Verifying had run Tapit Trice to within a half length in the Grade One Bluegrass Stakes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Not to be outdone Justify\u2019s first crop of Southern Hemisphere foals is making waves in Australia. Filly Colt Learning to Fly has two group stakes victories to her credit. Air Assault has a group three win. Legacies is another daughter with a stakes win under her belt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The top rated offspring of Justify is three year old Arabian Lion who recently won a grade one on the Belmont Stakes undercard. His initial crop also included 2022 group two winner Statuette in Ireland and grade three winner Just Cindy. If it seems like the only thing Justify hasn\u2019t done yet is sire a major polytrack winner just wait for two year old Living Magic who recently won a listed stakes at Woodbine in Canada. His sire prowess knows no bounds. So where did it come from?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Famously Justify did not race as a two year old but he is a son of Scat Daddy who sired some very fast two year olds such as two year old champions Lady Aurelia, Skitter Skatter and No Nay Never. But he also sired top class three year old main track runners such as Mendelssohn and Flameaway (in addition to Justify) who were all routers. Scat Daddy\u2019s other sons at stud include Caravaggio who sired his first grade one winner on July 15th<\/sup> as well. Sioux Nation is another son whose second crop are three year olds of 2023 which include four group winners. Of course No Nay Never has stamped himself as a sire of note in Ireland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Part of Juisify\u2019s success in European races comes from his start at Ashford Stud in Kentucky, the USA hub of Coolmore Stud. This meant he was given every chance with top class turf mares. City of Troy is out of the group one winning Galileo mare Forever Together. Ramatuelle is out of a German group two winning mare by Raven\u2019s Pass, with her second dam by Pivotal. Notably a Pivotal mare produced Statuette as well. Aspen Grove is out of is out of a grade three placed mare by More Than Ready whose offspring can run on either surface but this particular mare was grade three placed on the grass. In comparison Arabian Lion and Verifying are both out of more dirt oriented mares (by Distorted Humor and Repent respectively).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Justify\u2019s dam Stage Magic was grade three placed on the dirt. She\u2019s a daughter of Ghostzapper and her only other notable produce is The Lieutenant by Street Sense who was a grade three winner. He entered stud in New York but unfortunately died young. Stage Magic was produced by the grade one-placed Pulpit mare Magical Illusion. Justify\u2019s third dam is the Baldski mare Voodoo Lily who was a grade three winner on the dirt. Justify is inbred 5x3x5 to Mr. Prospector but also 4×5 to Nijinsky II as well as the Narrate, a major producer for Claiborne Farms. Narrate appears in the pedigree through her daughters Yarn dam of Johannesburg the sire of Scat Daddy and Preach dam of the aforementioned Pulpit. Considering his influence and the close up nature of him in Justify\u2019s pedigree it is no surprise that major winners Arabian Lion, Aspen Grove, Just Cindy and Ramatuelle all have Mr. Prospector on their damside as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Justify\u2019s ability to sire major runners on both surfaces is similar to Scat Daddy\u2019s in that his offspring tend to favor what their dam\u2019s did. As mentioned Justify did not race at two which is where most Scat Daddy offspring excelled. That tendency towards precocity certainly has been passed on to his son as evidenced by the sheer number of two year old graded and group performers he has in just two crops. But considering he himself did not race until three and that he won the Belmont Stakes at a mile and a half Justify is imparting a good deal of stamina to his runners as well. Given that his first two grade one winners did not come until June and July of their three year old seasons it stands to reason that his offspring will improve with age as well. It is scary to think what he might accomplish by the time his eldest foals finish their four year old seasons. While the clarification that Justify was not downgraded so much as minorly adjusted makes sense it would not be surprising to see him upgraded to elite status in the next year or two.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" A couple of weeks ago I posted the official upgrade\/downgrade list for 2023. Among the changes made was a downgrade<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":401,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63379","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/401"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=63379"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63379\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63380,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63379\/revisions\/63380"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=63379"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=63379"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=63379"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}