{"id":6239,"date":"2008-07-04T03:39:07","date_gmt":"2008-07-04T03:39:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=6239"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=6239","title":{"rendered":"Lots of Talent in Fillies Turf Mile"},"content":{"rendered":"

This week New York<\/st1:State><\/st1:place> sees the GR Simsters<\/I> <\/B>conduct several of their owner restricted stakes events. The race we cover here, the Three Year Old Fillies Turf Mile<\/I> makes almost a mockery of the term \u201cowner restricted stakes\u201d. Many far more highly classified contests draw far less competitive fields that that lining up here, as can be evidenced by the sheer number of highly ranked fillies taking part. The favorite for the event, Otto Tribute<\/B>, is rated number two in her class, and the depth continues with six of the runners ranked in the top thirty. The turf track is rated firm for this half million dollar feature, so, without further ado, we\u2019ll look at the market before running through the field in betting order<\/P>

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The early market this week is:<\/P>

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9\/2 \u2013 Otto Tribute<\/P>

5\/1 \u2013 Native Mambo<\/P>

8\/1 \u2013 Sleven\u2019s The Name<\/P>

9\/1 \u2013 Inclusive, The Dark Mark<\/P>

10\/1 \u2013 Flowerats<\/P>

11\/1 \u2013 Starrahy Eyed<\/P>

12\/1 \u2013 Vex<\/P>

14\/1 \u2013 Smooth Flow<\/P>

15\/1 \u2013 Best There Is, Happens In Vegas<\/P>

18\/1 \u2013 Whip It Wood<\/P>

19\/1 \u2013 Barbs Caramel<\/P>

20\/1 \u2013 Gambia<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region><\/P>

25\/1 – Oneforthebabe<\/P>

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Looking through the field in betting order:<\/P>

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9\/2 \u2013 Otto Tribute <\/B>\u2013 (Maria\u2019s Mon<\/I> \u2013 Fumascus<\/B> (Fusaichi Pegasus \/ Northern Dancer<\/I>)) – # 15 \u2013 Not a lot to say really. She\u2019s earned her position at the top of the market, and if anything, would still be attractive betting at a shorter quote. Unbeaten in nine runs on the grass, her only defeat coming at her second run, on the other stuff, she\u2019s the one they need to beat. This is a super field, full of talented fillies, but their connections all have one thing in common. When they sit down to work out tactics, they will formulate their ideas around beating this runner, whereas Shadowclaw<\/B> can simply instruct Lawton<\/I><\/st1:place><\/st1:City> to let the filly run her usual race. <\/P>

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5\/1 \u2013 Native Mambo<\/B> – (El Prado<\/I> \u2013 Icy Mambo<\/B> (Kingmambo \/ Exclusive Native<\/I>)) – # 12 \u2013 The 106 speed figure registered in her most recent run is the highest figure yet recorded by any runner in this race, making her the obvious main danger to the favorite. Her last two runs, when third, then second in Grade 1 features, would ordinarily set her up as a moral when dropping back to restricted ungraded competition. But as we\u2019ve already discussed, this is not a restricted ungraded field. There\u2019s a bit of early pace drawn inside her, so she won\u2019t have it all her way in her quest to lead from the wide gate, but if she wins the early battle, Caliracing<\/B> can be sure she\u2019ll give a great sight and prove tough to run down.<\/P>

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8\/1 \u2013 Sleven\u2019s The Name<\/B> – (El Prado<\/I> \u2013 Liquored Up Frog<\/B> (Lear Fan \/ Ide<\/I>))\u00a0 <\/SPAN>– # 14 \u2013 The three top chances in the market are all drawn out wide, virtually nullifying any disadvantage from that perspective. Two starts back she won a GR Simsters<\/I> restricted race over these conditions, stopping the clock in 1.35 dead. That\u2019s probably only a length or two shy of the likely requirement for the winner of this weeks challenge. Only the two above her in the market can also boast consecutive triple digit speed ratings coming into this, underlining her consistency and maturity. This Willrome<\/B> trained filly has been running solid, if non-winning, races at the graded level, and her CV includes a couple of near misses at Grade 1 level. She needs a tad of luck early to secure a position, and if she gets it she shouldn\u2019t go home empty handed.<\/P>

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9\/1 \u2013 Inclusive<\/B> – (Include <\/I>\u2013 Blushing At War<\/B> (Rahy \/ Lord At War<\/I>)) – # 3 \u2013 She hasn\u2019t missed the podium in a dozen starts, and that includes one at the higher Grade 3 level. This is a far superior bunch to those she\u2019s been lining up against recently, but as she\u2019s done nothing wrong, and she\u2019s regularly improving her times, there\u2019s no reason to suggest she\u2019ll have any trouble measuring up at a higher standard. The barrier is ideal. The filly immediately inside will jump very smartly, allowing this one to take her preferred sit just off the pace, either on the rail or one wide. She faded at her only previous try at the mile, but as that was in her debut run, it would pay to ignore that stat. Rlogan <\/B>can expect yet another competitive effort from this filly.<\/P>

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9\/1 – The Dark Mark<\/B> – (Montjeu \/ Sharpen Up \/ Grey Dawn II<\/I>) – # 4 \u2013 With only the eight starts, and a CV which includes a Grade 1 second, there\u2019s plenty to like about her chances here. Her last two runs are far better than they look at first glance, being the only two unplaced runs of her career. She was clearly unsuited by the additional half mile last start, whereas she was making good ground at the end of the 1000 Guineas, with two of those who finished ahead of her and lining up again, both going around at significantly shorter prices. She won\u2019t get caught up in any early rush and Sunshine87<\/B> can be confident the filly will be motoring home late<\/P>

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10\/1 \u2013 Flowerats<\/B> – (Flower Alley \/ Indian Ridge \/ Shirley Heights<\/I>) – # 8 \u2013 This filly presents something of an enigma, which must be causing the stable untold frustration. She\u2019s proven desperately unlucky, finishing second in black type company at each of her last three, and seeming to indicate she needs further. However, her raw stats seem to contradict that thought, as she\u2019s only one from six in route attempts. As that one win was a Grade 1 World Cup triumph, it may be time to try yet again. With all her five victories coming at her first five runs, it\u2019s impossible to be overly confident after nine runs without greeting the judge, but the Darnath2<\/B> filly has established her class in that Grade 1 victory, and on that score alone she deserves plenty of respect.<\/P>

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11\/1 \u2013 Starrahy Eyed<\/B> – (Rahy <\/I>\u00a0<\/SPAN>\u2013 Star Out Of Men<\/B> (Danzig \/ Graustark<\/I>)) – # 10 \u2013 The Pegasus<\/B> filly has selected a tough assignment in her quest to test new waters. The game\u2019s top ranked sprinting filly, courtesy of seven black type wins including at Grade 1 and Grade 2 level, she must be taken on trust a bit as she looks to extend her distance range with this first trip at the mile. There\u2019s really no reason to suggest that she won\u2019t measure up, but the quality of opposition which have already proved themselves capable of seeing out the distance, indicates that she has a question to answer. Obviously if the race were half a furlong shorter, you wouldn\u2019t be getting these juicy odds, so if you like her, a solid wager may turn out to be a most wise investment.<\/P>

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12\/1 \u2013 Vex<\/B> – (Dynaformer <\/I>\u00a0<\/SPAN>\u2013 Causing Trouble<\/B> (Giant\u2019s Causeway<\/I><\/st1:place> \/ Seeking The Gold<\/I>)) – # 6 \u2013 This filly may well be subject to a plunge when the on course markets open. On the strength of her massive improvement in a very short career, she looks to be the most likely to be able to find that \u2018something extra\u2019 which may be needed to topple the favorites. Desperado4<\/B> identified her as a miler early on, deciding to begin her career over this trip. She may have simply lacked a bit of experience there, not quite seeing the journey out. That \u2018is it too far?\u2019 question has obviously dissuaded the top jockeys from seeking the ride, but if she\u2019s now found that extra half length, she proved last start she can run fast enough, and could be the value bet in this field.<\/P>

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14\/1 \u2013 Smooth Flow<\/B> – (Vindication \/ Deputy Minister \/ Fappiano<\/I>) – # 5 \u2013 She\u2019s only stepping up from an allowance to an owner restricted stake. That\u2019s the good news. The bad news is that many of her opponents are stepping down from the top events at the graded level. Without a triple digit speed rating to show from thirteen starts, along with the lack of high level experience (19th<\/SUP> of 20 in a restricted stake is hardly high level experience), I find it hard to give her much hope in this. The Domedriver<\/B> filly was beaten in a four horse allowance last time out. This is much harder<\/P>

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15\/1 \u2013 Best There Is<\/B> – (King\u2019s Best <\/I>\u00a0<\/SPAN>\u2013 SDFSA<\/B> (Diesis \/ Sadler\u2019s Wells<\/I>)) – # 9 \u2013 Another value runner from the Desperado<\/B> barns. It\u2019s easy to throw out the last run as too far, so that leaves a career of four wins and five seconds from nine runs. Not shabby at all. Two of those seconds came against Grade 1 opponents. Of course the bad news is that both those races were won by Otto Tribute<\/B>. When she ran second in the 1000 guineas, she finished ahead of Native Mambo<\/B>, who runs around here at one third the odds of this filly. The oddsmakers have clearly taken their eyes off the ball with this one. I can\u2019t see her turning the tables, but she\u2019s a definite inclusion in the exotic bets.<\/P>

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15\/1 – Happens In Vegas<\/B> – (Cacique <\/I>\u00a0<\/SPAN>\u2013 La Vita E Bella<\/B> (Deputy Minister \/ Unbridled<\/I>)) – # 13 \u2013 This Texasace<\/B> filly has never missed the board in her ten race career, but has recently developed a serious case of seconditis. Four seconds in a row would normally indicate that she\u2019s due for a change of luck, but as two of those placings came in very small allowance fields, it\u2019s hard to be enthusiastic about that change of luck coming against this star studded opposition. She\u2019s another without a triple digit speed rating to her credit and, although I\u2019ve no doubt she\u2019ll run her usual honest race, she faces too many better fillies to look a serious winning chance<\/P>

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18\/1 \u2013 Whip It Wood<\/B> – (Stormin Fever <\/I>\u00a0<\/SPAN>\u2013 Forest of Angels<\/B> (Woodman \/ Halo<\/I>)) – # 2 \u2013 Ldstable<\/B>\u2019s handy filly drops back a bit in distance and takes a significant leap in competition level here. Again, she\u2019s another who can best be described as very honest. With only eight runs under her belt, there\u2019s still the possibility that she may be able to make the quantum leap needed, but to be fair she seems to have just too many better performed opponents to be rated a genuine chance. It will be interesting to see if she can hold out the early speedster drawn wider, but I doubt she can hold out the closers.<\/P>

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19\/1 \u2013 Barbs Caramel<\/B> – (Red Bullet<\/I> \u2013 Doctor Flag<\/B> (Gulch \/ Secretariat<\/I>)) – # 1 \u2013 Another extremely honest filly who always manages to run into something a bit better on the day. In each of her last three, she\u2019s been finishing the race off nicely, albeit in worryingly small fields, and she wasn\u2019t disgraced in her only prior attempt at the mile, finishing second, on that occasion against a handy field. The inside barrier should allow her to get a comfortable run just off the pace. She needs a massive personal best to threaten some established stars, but with a bit of luck in running the 5heffsbarn<\/B> filly could run a far better race than her price would indicate<\/P>

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20\/1 \u2013 Gambia<\/B><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> – (Unbridled\u2019s Song \/ Broad Brush \/ Secretariat<\/I>) – # 7 \u2013 Another entrant from Texasace.<\/B> She may have crept in under the radar a bit here. With four wins from eight, there\u2019s nothing wrong with her strike rate, and her most recent run indicated that she could still have some upside. She stopped the clock in 1.35.6 in that most recent stakes race. That won\u2019t be fast enough for this, but she added a dozen points to her previous best speed rating in that effort, and if she can find a bit more, she may put herself into the picture. A win could only be described as a boilover, but a good run will come as no surprise. Bettors looking for value could have a lot of fun with an across the board ticket.<\/P>

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25\/1 \u2013 Oneforthebabe<\/B> – (Kingmambo \/ A.P. Indy \/ Buckpasser<\/I>) – # 11 \u2013 May be a little unfortunate to earn the outsider tag, given that she\u2019s won her last three, all allowances at this track and over this surface and distance. Of course the market has been influenced by the times she\u2019s posted in those wins. A best of 1.36.2 is probably\u00a0seven or\u00a0so lengths shy of this week\u2019s requirement. With nothing even close to triple digits on the formpage it\u2019s impossible to give her a winning chance, but she must know every inch of the track, she won\u2019t be suffering travel fatigue, and supporters of the Doctahg<\/B> barn will get plenty of value on their tickets<\/P>

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Summary:<\/U><\/B> It\u2019s hard to see the favorite getting beaten. Of course, she\u2019s got to lose one day, but I\u2019m not brave (or silly) enough to call it this week. If she gets home as expected, that $11 dividend is going to look like a gift. If Otto Tribute<\/B> fails to greet the judge, then the race is wide open. Native Mambo<\/B> has chased her home a couple of times, and has the best credentials for turning the tables. Sleven\u2019s The Name<\/B> is racing in career best form under these conditions. Inclusive<\/B> doesn\u2019t know how to run a bad race. The Dark Mark<\/B> will appreciate the drop in distance. Flowerats<\/B> is a worry, needing to recapture that winning feeling, but she proven she has class. Starrahy Eyed<\/B> didn\u2019t get to the top of the sprinting ranks without plenty of talent. Vex<\/B> has heaps of untapped potential. Smooth Flow<\/B> is knocking on the door of a triple digit effort. Best There Is<\/B> has been unfairly penalized for one ordinary run under very different conditions. Happens In Vegas<\/B> has run second at both route attempts. Whip It Wood<\/B> steps up in class, but has shown plenty at the lower level. Barbs Caramel<\/B> has a bucket full of near misses in black type races. Gambia<\/B><\/st1:country-region><\/st1:place> looks to have plenty of upside and represents good value, while Oneforthebabe<\/B> lines up trying to extend the winning streak to four.<\/P>

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Selections: <\/U><\/B><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/U><\/P>

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Otto Tribute<\/B> \u2013 No comment necessary.<\/P>

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Best There Is<\/B> \u2013 The bookmakers are on drugs.<\/P>

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Starrahy Eyed<\/B> \u2013 If she gets the mile, she\u2019s as good as anything.<\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Otto Tribute Heads Fillies Market<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":453,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6239","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/453"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6239"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6239\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6239"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6239"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6239"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}