{"id":6140,"date":"2008-06-12T01:37:39","date_gmt":"2008-06-12T01:37:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=6140"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=6140","title":{"rendered":"Appropriately Heads Betting in Epsom G3"},"content":{"rendered":"

Race 13 on this week\u2019s Epsom card is The Joisy Stakes<\/I>. This Grade 3 series dates back to 2002, and has been run here since, with the exception of 2003, when it relocated to Ascot<\/st1:place>. The event carries Grade 3 status along with a purse of $100,000. The seven furlong turf sprint will run on a firm surface, despite threatening weather throughout the week. Ten runners will face the judge, and with eight of those runners quoted in single figure odds, there is clearly a tough job ahead in attempting to sort out the winner. Despite drawing the widest gate, Appropriately<\/B> heads the early betting at 9\/2, while the rank outsider Why Protest<\/B> is being kept very safe, with just 14\/1 on offer about his chances. Interestingly, although only rated a Grade 3 contest, Epsom has managed to entice eight of the top 50 ranked three year old turf sprinters, including sixth rated Crezzino<\/B>. The field is a real credit to the club, but a handicapper\u2019s nightmare.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

As can be seen below, the race has not left a huge list of household names. While none of the winners have gone on to secure the accolade of an eclipse award, several of the runners have gone on to higher achievements.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Let\u2019s revisit history with a quick look at the earlier winners of the eleven furlong events:<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

2002 <\/B>– \u00a0<\/SPAN>R.I.P Saddie <\/B>\u2013 Unholy \u2013 1.22.0 \u2013 109 \u2013 Retired winner of \u00a0<\/SPAN>$251k. <\/o:p><\/I><\/P>

2003<\/B> (Ascot<\/st1:place>) \u2013<\/B> Quiet Ruler<\/B> \u2013 Shockwave \u2013 1.21.6 \u00a0<\/SPAN>\u2013 115 \u2013 Retired winner of $801k. Lemon Ruler<\/B> (Lemon Drop Kid<\/I>) was based on this horse, and has gone on to win over $300k, including a second at G1 level last weekend.<\/P>

2004 \u2013<\/B> Senorita Rapida <\/B>\u2013 Citycowboy \u2013 1.22.0 \u2013 110 \u2013 Retired winner of $585k. Dam of three, but none as yet of black type quality.<\/P>

2005 \u2013 In The Evening<\/B> \u2013 Duke \u2013 1.22.0 \u2013 103 \u2013 Retired winner of $1.1m. <\/P>

2006 \u2013<\/B> Two Storms<\/B> \u2013 Maryfran \u2013 1.21.8 \u2013 106 \u2013 active winner of $757k. <\/P>

2007 \u2013<\/B> Legendary Lemon<\/B> \u2013 Hardnfast \u2013 1.21.8 \u2013 107 \u2013 active winner of $868k. <\/P>

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/P>

Historically we see that this race is a generally one of pure speed. No winner, in the history of The Joisy Stakes<\/I>, has failed to return a triple digit speed rating. In fact, the lowest winner returned a 103, while the race record belongs to Quiet Ruler<\/B> (2003) who posted a 1.21.6 when the race was run at Ascot<\/st1:place>. For the purpose of analysis this week, we\u2019re going to base many comments on the expectation that the winner will need to equal or better that \u2018slow\u2019 1.22 time and 103 speed figure.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Let\u2019s work through the formguide for this year\u2019s event:<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

The inside gate holds Danish Law<\/B> and, with four stakes victories on his scorecard, he\u2019s well and truly earned the right to take his place in this. Unlike a couple of his opponents, however, he has a bit of improvement to find to be a winning chance this weekend. Three starts back he scored a personal best when registering a 97 winning in Pennsylvania<\/st1:State><\/st1:place>. But that was far and away his summit thus far, and with a couple of very ordinary performances since, it\u2019s going to take a real turnaround to achieve a winning effort in this. Is he capable of producing it? When he ran that big race three starts ago, he had a comfortable run in front, and was able to set a fast, but uncontested pace against just three clearly slower opponents. The rail will be of assistance to him here if he jumps cleanly, but there is quite a bit of speed drawn wider, and he probably won\u2019t want to get into a fight to hold the ascendancy. We\u2019ve already discussed the almost mandatory triple digit speed rating that will be needed this week. Is he capable of reaching it? Those framing the market tend to think he can\u2019t, offering the second longest price about his chances. Danish Law<\/B> is a scratchbred son of Danehill Dancer \/ Law Society \/ Mt. Livermore<\/I>, bred and raced by Papaxerxes<\/B>. His two previous forays into the Graded ranks have seen him finish seventh and eighth. I think there are just too many better performed opponents this week.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

From stall 2 jumps Paint Me Silver<\/B>, a previous winner under exactly the same conditions he faces this weekend. His career highlight to date is his win at this track in January when he secured the major spoils in the G3-Roasting Weanies Stakes<\/I>, the middle pin of three consecutive black type victories. He\u2019s been a tad disappointing in the two runs since, but has taken home a cheque on both occasions. He was closing last start over six and a half, so the return to seven furlongs will be no disadvantage. Paint Me Silver<\/B> is a cleverly named son of Badge of Silver<\/I> from Paint Me Blue<\/B> (Mineshaft \/ Machiavellian<\/I>). He\u2019s the first offspring of a mare who didn\u2019t quite live up to her own blood, winning three minor races in a twenty seven race career, but who has already made amends in the shed by dropping this smart colt. Looking for concerns, the Grade three win was posted in 1.22.6, somewhat shy of the likely requirement this weekend. Many of his opponents have already posted triple digits, while this fellow has yet to do so. He\u2019s not far off however and although he needs a personal best, there\u2019s nothing to say he can\u2019t produce it. He\u2019ll drop right out early and although I can\u2019t put the Sasscass<\/B> bred and trained colt into the top selections, he\u2019s earned his place, he likes this track and a solid closing run will come as no surprise. \u00a0<\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

B Baun<\/B> has drawn 3 and lines up with an astonishing record of ten wins from just thirteen starts. How many boxes does he tick here? For starters, he\u2019s never lost two in a row in his life, and he comes into this off one of his rare defeats. He\u2019s proven at this level of racing, having taken home the trophy for the G3-Alec and Stephen Stakes<\/I> at this track back in March. Three consecutive triple digits before his surprise flop last time out answers any question about the pace. So that\u2019s speed, class and consistency all covered. Opposition trainers may be able to take slight heart from the fact that one of his three defeats was at his only prior run over this seven furlong trip, but those same trainers won\u2019t want their hoops letting this fellow have too much of a comfortable run in the lead. It\u2019s far more likely that he just won\u2019t stop. B Baun<\/B> is son of Old Deuteronomy<\/I> (a sire I believe we\u2019ll hear a lot more from) based on Bonavista<\/B> (Machiavellian \/ Danzig<\/I>), a moderately performed winner of four from thirty two. The family traces back four generations (all male) and this colt is the best performing of the dynasty to date. Trainer \/ breeder Mano2<\/B> will be hoping the inside colt will surrender the lead without the need to overtax this fellow early, and if he can dictate terms, he\u2019ll prove very tough to run down. Given his strike rate, he represents very good value at 6\/1.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Mambo Mine<\/B> will exit the 4 barrier, as he looks to regain the form which saw him developing into one of the elite as a juvenile. Lining up for just his fourth start this year, he\u2019s working his way back into the form we witnessed towards the end of last year. Scratchbred by Jockeymax7<\/B> using the top quality blood of Mineshaft \/ Kingmambo \/ Nijinsky<\/I>, he began his career with a couple of runs on the dirt, before the switch in surface produced an immediate spike in performances. Although he\u2019s won just the one black type event, and that a listed stakes, his career highlight came at his last run of 2007, when he ran third in Maryland<\/st1:place><\/st1:State>\u2019s G1- Digging the Grave Handicap<\/I>. This year he began with a midfield effort in his one and only route attempt, before a two length loss in an ungraded stake and then the major pointer to his chances here. Five weeks ago he ran third in Victoria<\/st1:State><\/st1:place>\u2019s G2-After Shave Sprint<\/I>, registering a career best speed rating. He drops a tad in class here, which will be in his favour, and although he\u2019s yet to post the requisite triple digits, he\u2019s working towards it and is not far away. He should have no trouble slotting across to either the rail or one off, and will be content to settle midfield before motoring home late. Mambo Mine<\/B> will need a good run in transit, but if he\u2019s nearing his potential best he\u2019s in with a definite chance.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Barrier 5 is the starting gate for Why Protest<\/B>, an up and comer who needs to find a few lengths on his previous best, but he\u2019s had just the three runs on the grass, and is showing solid improvement as he matures. He takes on a field of more seasoned performers this week, and given that his two attempts at ungraded racing have not produced a win, he may be aiming a bit high. Now, in the search for positives. One of those stakes runs was over eight and a half furlongs and he was beaten by a double figure margin. Returned to sprinting, he showed plenty of fight before being run down late. On exposed form he looks a couple of lengths short of the standard needed here, but he\u2019s finished ITM five from six. His sprint record is a win and two seconds from three and at this early stage of his career, he may still be able to produce a significant boost to his previous personal best form. Why Protest<\/B> is a scratchbred son of Bernadini \/ Gone West \/ Pleasant Colony. <\/I>Breeder \/ trainer Borrow2<\/B> will be looking to have him settle midfield in the run. I feel he\u2019s taking on too many horses with too much established superior form, but with just the few runs on the surface, it\u2019s quite possible he\u2019ll run a better race than his outsider\u2019s quote would lead us to expect.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Drawn in gate 6, we find Vespucci<\/B>. A tale of two horses. Although he won two black type events over eight and a half furlongs as a juvenile, his sprinting record is far superior, as evidenced by his four wins and one second from five runs over the shorter trips. Looking at 2008 without delving too deeply, and he appears to be a \u2018hot one day, cold the next\u2019 sort of colt. But look a little deeper and it\u2019s really more \u2018hot in the sprints, cold in the routes\u2019. Despite having had four unplaced runs in graded company, this is the first time he\u2019s tackled a Graded Sprint. Vespucci<\/B> is a son of champion sire Storm Cat<\/I>, based on Valamar<\/B> (Gold Legend \/ Northern Dancer<\/I>), a grade 1 winner whose eight victories all came on the grass. This one has obviously shown the same surface preference tendencies to connections, and since he\u2019s scored five black type wins from his eleven runs, it\u2019s almost impossible to argue. Breeder \/ trainer Jbfarms<\/B> will be expecting to see the colt settle towards the rear early before storming home. While some may state that he\u2019s unproven (or even failed) as a Graded performer, I\u2019ll take the line that he\u2019s a top sprinter, and therefore a top chance this week. The bookmakers obviously agree and are taking no risks, keeping him safe at 6\/1 and denying the betting students any value in a colt they may have expected to sneak in under the radar.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Gate 7 is the starting position for Road Not Taken<\/B>, an unlucky colt who regularly finds ways of getting beaten, as evidenced from his six seconds in his thirteen start career. As we\u2019d expect when looking at his bloodlines, his early juvenile program was set on the dirt, with an extension to route racing in line with the normal hopeful road to the Triple Crown. Although handy on the dirt (three stakes ITM\u2019s, two of them over the route trips), connections decided his future lay in turf sprinting (although the way he tends to finish on, a bit of ground in the future may still be on the cards). But we\u2019ll get to his grass scoreline. In eight starts he\u2019s yet to go home empty handed, finishing first twice and second five times. It\u2019s the two most recent starts which entice confidence for this week. Over this seven furlong journey two starts back, he comfortably accounted for an ungraded stakes field, before running home strongly for second in his most recent appearance, the G2-Snake Eyes<\/I>. With consecutive triple digit speed ratings at his last two, he\u2019s shown that he has both the class and the ability to be a threat here. A son of Storm Cat<\/I>, he\u2019s based on the Grade 3 winner Political Patriot<\/B> (Machiavellian \/ Deputy Minister<\/I>), who raced for breeder Focusforce<\/B> during his thirty seven race career, winning on ten occasions. Road Not Taken<\/B> may be posted out a bit early, if he gets caught up in the tactical battle for midfield positions, but he is sure to be in the mix at the business end of the race.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Glorious Sunset, <\/B>drawn 8, is currently racing in the best form of his career, which is a big statement given that in twelve races he\u2019s never gone home without a cheque, and he\u2019s taken home the winner\u2019s share five times. Handy enough in his first three races on the dirt, his speed figures took an instant spike once he changed surfaces. A winner twice in ungraded company, three and four starts ago, he then put in a sub-par effort and was sent back to the allowance for a confidence boosting easy run. Coming into this with three wins from his last four, it\u2019s hard to rate him as anything but a solid chance. Those looking for weaknesses will point out the fact that he\u2019s gone around at prohibitive odds in small fields in each of those three wins, perhaps over-glorifying his efforts given the standard of opposition. In his defence, he needs only beat whatever turns up, and there are no bonuses for winning margins. Glorious Sunset<\/B> is a son of Mineshaft<\/I> from Misty Sunset<\/B> (Danzig \/ Alydar<\/I>). The dam was a lightly raced winner of three from fourteen, and breeder \/ trainer Londoner<\/B> was so impressed with the result of this first mating, that the mare was returned to Mineshaft<\/I> to produce this years two year old Sunrise Sunset<\/B>, who makes his debut in Norway this week. I\u2019d expect this colt to move forward early, settle within a couple of lengths of the leading bunfight, and to be close up when it matters.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Barrier <\/B>9 is allocated to Crezzino<\/B>. A Grade 1 winner he automatically commands respect when presented in a race of lower classification. In mid September last year he was stamping himself as one of the stars of the future, and although he\u2019s tarnished his reputation a tad since that early onslaught, he\u2019s been racing in solid enough form to stake a real claim here. His career highlight, victory in Ireland<\/st1:country-region><\/st1:place>\u2019s juvenile G1-Nationwide Stakes<\/I>, took his scorecard to three wins from four starts. Since then he\u2019s won just one from six, so he hasn\u2019t exactly lived up to early promise. Fair enough, the first three of those ensuing six runs were Grade 1 races, and he wasn\u2019t disgraced in any of them, so it may pay to credit those as better than they seem at first glance. He then ran third in the G3-Alec and Stephen Stakes<\/I> (behind B Baun)<\/B> before the run which provides both the confidence argument, and the biggest concern for this week. Racing over the seven furlongs he faces here, he was unable to win a four horse ungraded stake. That\u2019s the concern. The other side of the coin is the fact that he was beaten a head, the third horse was distanced, and the race won in 1.21.6, a time equal to the race record for this event. Crezzino<\/B> is a son of Cacique<\/I>, from Undefeated Season<\/B> (A.P. Indy \/ Mr. Prospector<\/I>), a moderately performed winner of three from twenty six. The dam is faring better in retirement however, with this Grade 1 winner her first produce, and juvenile half sister Cromartie<\/B> (Giant\u2019s Causeway<\/I><\/st1:place>) a most promising stakes placed winner from just two runs. Breeder trainer Allvindy<\/B> will expect him to settle just off the pace, with a view to adding to her Graded record through a strong finish<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

The outside gate is reserved for Appropriately<\/B>, a multiple stakeswinner lining up for his first tilt at the Graded opposition, following a more than solid grounding in ungraded company. After showing promise in his first four runs on the dirt, connections decided on a switch of surface, and since then his posted five wins, a second and a third, all in stakes races. There is just nothing to fault in his form thus far, but the best guide to his chances here can be gathered from his Delaware<\/st1:State><\/st1:place> run two starts back. Over the same seven furlong grass journey he covers here, he motored home in 1.21.8. A better time than that here will see at least a share of the all time race record, so a repetition sees him in with a second to none winning chance. The early market sums up his chances appropriately, as he\u2019s been installed as the early favourite in a field laden with talent. \u00a0<\/SPAN>Appropriately<\/B> is the third offspring of underperforming (2 from 40) broodmare Cat O\u2019Nine Tails II<\/B> (Storm Cat \/ Forty Niner<\/I>). She\u2019s been far better in the breeding shed than on the track, turning out GW Pedro\u2019s Assault<\/B> (Rock of Gibraltar<\/I>) and SP Total Kaos<\/B> (Theatrical<\/I>) prior to this one. Pjlstables<\/B> sent the mare to Pulpit<\/I> for this foal, and once again she\u2019s produced the goods. It\u2019s highly unlikely the colt will look to lead, given all the early speed drawn further in, but he won\u2019t be far off the pace as he looks to storm home <\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Summary and Selections:<\/U><\/B> <\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

A really tough event to try and summarise, as there are so many variables and possibilities. <\/SPAN>Eight of the runners are at odds of 9\/1 or less and I think it\u2019s fair enough to concentrate on them. Danish Law<\/B> and Why Protest<\/B> would need significant improvements on their previous bests, while requiring sub-par efforts from too many of their opponents. It\u2019s possible, but not likely. Mambo Mine<\/B> looks to be retuning to the form which won him a Grade 1, so bettors looking for value should consider him. Paint Me Silver<\/B> has proven himself over these conditions here, so he can\u2019t be dismissed. Glorious Sunset<\/B> may be underrated in the market, due to the moderate opposition he\u2019s been beating, so he\u2019s a another potential bet for those seeking a bit of value. B Baun<\/B> has clearly the best strike rate and alongside the favourite, is one of only two with three triple digits on the formpage. Vespucci<\/B> is a last start stakeswinner who still looks to have upside. Road Not Taken<\/B> is consistent, and dropping back in class from a top run. Crezzino<\/B> has covered this distance faster than any of his opponents and Appropriately<\/B> simply doesn\u2019t run bad races. <\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

B Baun<\/B> to win. Great record. Great price<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Road Not Taken<\/B> for second. Drops in class. Top two seven of eight on the grass.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Appropriately<\/B> for third. Deserving favourite, but I don\u2019t like tipping favourites.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

The Market<\/B>:<\/P>

9\/2 \u2013 Appropriately<\/P>

5\/1 \u2013 Road Not Taken, Crezzino<\/P>

6\/1 \u2013 B Baun, Vespucci<\/P>

7\/1 \u2013 Glorious Sunset<\/P>

8\/1 \u2013 Paint Me Silver<\/P>

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/P>

Qualification Order <\/B>– Class Rating Position:<\/P>

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Crezzino \u2013 6<\/P>

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>B Baun – 17<\/P>

Paint Me Silver \u2013 20<\/P>

Appropriately – 22 <\/P>

Road Not Taken \u2013 27\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Danish Law – 37<\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Top Field of Sprinters to Assemble in Epsom<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":261,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6140","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/261"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6140"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6140\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}