{"id":6099,"date":"2008-06-05T20:40:36","date_gmt":"2008-06-05T20:40:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=6099"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=6099","title":{"rendered":"Sabbath Point goes for history in the Chestnut Stakes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>GI 11 furlongs fast dirt 3yo fillies<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = \"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office\" \/><o:p><FONT face=Calibri>\u00a0<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>The excitement mounts with the possibilities of a sweep of the three races that comprise the Triple Tiara for the filly division of three year olds.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><STRONG>Sabbath Point (KY)<\/STRONG> looks to take the GI Chestnut Stakes in New York this week to add her name to the history books.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Twelve opponents have shown up this week to try to spoil the moment in New York, and we must ask the question, can they do it?<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>To spice it up just a bit we also have three foreign invaders trying to steal the show from America.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>PP1 World Ambition (AUS)<\/STRONG> 12\/1- <STRONG><EM>Bung1 (107-25-13-11)<\/EM><\/STRONG><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>CJ Anderson (7.6%-26%<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>3.7%-20% in 2008)<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>On the rail we have the Aussie invader, who is a daughter of Encosta De Lago out of the mare S Noyes (G-rated Crafty Prospector x Devil\u2019s Bag).<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is a lightly raced filly having only nine starts, but seems to be on the improve at the moment.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She does lack a stakes win at this point and only has a third in a graded stakes last time out in the Go for Broke Stakes.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She ran a career best speed figure in that race with a 100, but that number is probably not close to what it is going to take this week.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The distance might be a problem as well as he best distance seems to be around a mile or nine furlongs.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her pedigree does not scream for eleven furlongs.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her performance has improved speed wise, but not necessarily result wise from the switch to closer from front runner.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>There is very little speed in this race, and she is not close to the best closer.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If she is way back early she has no shot.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I really think she needs to be up front and try to hang on for a piece.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is a huge jump in class for her, and I simply do not know if she is up to that challenge.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The third place finish last time out in a GIII is a bit of a mirage as the field was short, and there was not much in the race.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Expected pace- Can be anywhere, has been a deep closer and a speed horse.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Would expect a run from way back if she has a run.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>Expected finish- 8<SUP>th<\/SUP><\/STRONG>&#8211; Do not think she will be up front early, and seems to lack the true class to close with a soft pace.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>PP2 Cosimo (ENG)<\/STRONG> 14\/1- <STRONG><EM>Stormboot2 (172-40-25-21)<\/EM><\/STRONG><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\"><\/SPAN>N Painter (10.3%-30%<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>11.3%-31% in 2008)<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Next we have a scratch bred daughter of Medicean (GB) out of a Danzig mare that is my super duper secret upset special.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>While this horse has not yet broken a 100 speed figure yet, she does have two huge things going for her.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Pace makes a race they say, well she is the speed of the race, and there is very little other true speed in the race.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Saarahy (KY) out in post 11 has some early speed, but is untested at the distance.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This girl has run at eleven furlongs before (last time out), and simply crushed a short field of four in the Cankerous Parade Challenge, leading by no less than four at any point other than the start.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If there is one horse that could steal this race this is her.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her speed figures are in the middling range of this race field, but at eleven furlongs, it might not take much.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Not a pedigree that would seem to love this much distance with the Mr. Prospector line on top with Danzig on the bottom, but she really digs the distance.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She might get caught, but I think she is in the picture at the finish.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Expected pace- On the lead or right there at the throat of the lead.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Not a one dimensional front runner, but is close.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>Expected finish- 2<SUP>nd<\/SUP><\/STRONG> Might just get nipped at the wire but she has a real shot to steal this race.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>PP3 Battle Music (KY)<\/STRONG> 39\/1- <STRONG><EM>2ofus (640-102-104-76)<\/EM><\/STRONG><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\"><\/SPAN>V Jennings (17.3%-45%<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>24.2%-54% in 2008)<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>In the three hole we a regally bred daughter of Unbridled\u2019s Song out of the mare Battle Song (D-rated War Chant x Seattle Slew) with three career wins.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This young lady is coming off of a career best effort in her only stakes win at 9.5 furlongs with a speed figure of 97.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is a really tough call on this one, as her pedigree suggests that her last race was a positive result from stretching out, but could also be a factor of the five horse field.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>All of her wins have come in short fields, and both NMOS wins have come in fields of five.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I think it most likely is the latter.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She is usually moving towards the leaders at the line, but does not seem to get there, but has been closer as the races get longer.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is a case of a horse that lacks a lot of speed and is mostly a grinder.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This may sound silly, but I think this race is going to be a bit too short for this girl.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I really believe her best racing is going to come at marathon distances of 14 furlongs and greater.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She will most likely be 17-20 lengths back early, and I think she is going to loose interest like what happened in the GI California Oaks, where she was distanced in a field of 14.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In that race she was 20 lengths back at only the second call.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Expected pace- Deep closer.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>Expected finish- 13<SUP>th<\/SUP><\/STRONG> She needs more distance and will be way too far back early.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>PP4 Black Flag Flying (KY)<\/STRONG> 7\/2- <STRONG><EM>Simsters1 (349-69-53-45)<\/EM><\/STRONG><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\"><\/SPAN>F Gossett (19.7%-48%<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>25.4%-56% in 2008)<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Out next in line we have one of the three fillies that will be competing in all three legs of the Triple Tiara.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She is a daughter of super sire A.P Indy and the multiple graded stakes winning dam Burning Flag (C-rated Forty Niner x Blushing Groom) with almost $750,000 in earnings.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She was a decent second to Sabboth Point (KY) last time out with a career best 106 speed figure.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>As with all horse the jump from nine to eleven furlongs is a bit of a mystery until they try it, but her pedigree says that she should be fine.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>There is no question that she is a deep closer, but tends to sit a bit closer to the pace than Sabbath Point.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I think for her to have a shot she needs to be much closer this time as she simply lacks the closing speed of the favorite, and must try to get a jump start on her instead of trying to out run her.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She might also be ready for a bounce as this is her fourth race in just over two months, and a career best last race.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>No way does she not get a check, but I don\u2019t think she will be a huge factor in the finish.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Expected pace- Deep closer.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>Expected finish- 4<SUP>th<\/SUP><\/STRONG> Great horse that is going to regress a little bit.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Had he shot last race, but could surprise this week, but I don\u2019t think so.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>PP5 Dehere Dabear (KY)<\/STRONG> 12\/1- <STRONG><EM>Peepshold (229-29-32-29)<\/EM><\/STRONG><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\"><\/SPAN>D Givins (20.4%-48%<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>24.7%-53% in 2008)<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Next up we have a filly that doesn\u2019t so much have a family tree, but instead sports a family trunk.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She is a daughter of Dehere out of the dam Robot Chicken (G-rated Deputy Minister x Danehill) and is making her first start since her disappointing 15<SUP>th<\/SUP> place finish in the GI Bluegrass Oaks.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She has a career best speed figure of 100 which was two races back, but I don\u2019t see hr making a move forward this race.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Even if she runs the race of her life it most likely would still not quite be enough.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She is yet another deep closer that lacks the turn of foot to close on a soft early pace.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She did have a very nice race three back winning easy at 9.5 furlongs, but that happened against a short field of seven.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Expected pace- Another deep closer.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Someone has to lead right?&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;right?<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>Expected finish- 11<SUP>th<\/SUP><\/STRONG> She is going to win a lot of stakes races in her time, but this field is a bit too tough for her this week.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>PP6 Rattyburg (KY)<\/STRONG> 8\/1- <STRONG><EM>Darnath3 (759-84-100-96)<\/EM><\/STRONG><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\"><\/SPAN>J Caves (19.2%-47%<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>18.4%-49% in 2008)<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Next we have another horse retuning after their crack at Sabbath Point, and she left with a sound beating and a tenth place finish.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She is a scratch bred daughter of Johannesburg out of a Wild Again mare with five career wins, one of which was a GI win in the California Oaks.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I do not think that she is going to enjoy the extra distance as her pedigree is sporting a sire and dam sire that throw slightly more sprinters than routers.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In the Bluegrass Oaks she started to make a run at the far turn, but flattened out down the stretch and really didn\u2019t due much.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I do like that fact that this horse has not been babied against hand picked short fields, she has raced against the best there is, and has run some huge races.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her career best speed figure of 102 is good enough for a decent finish, but I don\u2019t think we see an effort that good this week.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She is battle tested against strong deep fields, but lacks enough speed to be a factor this race.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She is a bit of a plodder.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Expected pace- Yet another deep closer, but can be placed a bit more forward if need be.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>Expected finish- 9<SUP>th<\/SUP><\/STRONG> Could get up for a check, but I don\u2019t quite think she has the class to win a race this tough. <SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0<\/SPAN>She is going to win a lot of races after this one though.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>PP7 Sabbath Point (KY)<\/STRONG> 3\/1- <STRONG><EM>Malekfarms (561-98-84-67)<\/EM><\/STRONG><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\"><\/SPAN>W McClendon (20.1%-49%<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>23.9%-51% in 2008)<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>In the seven post we have another scratch bred, this one of the Seeking the Gold type out of a Seattle Slew mare.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>What more can I say about this filly except wow.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She ran at the time a career best speed figure of 101 back in March.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Bounce next race out right?<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Nope, blasted a career best 108 next time out, also in March.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Has to bounce after that right?<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Not even close, fired a 107 in the Bluegrass Oaks.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Of course that next race she HAS to bounce right?<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Nice try, only another 108 while winning the second leg of the Triple Tiara.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>So she has to bounce this week right?<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I am not betting on that happening.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The Triple Tiara is for her to lose, and she is the favorite and the best filly in the race.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I do think that the only horse she has to fear is Cosimo in post number two.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That horse has run the 11 furlong distance before and could very easily get an uncontested lead.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Unlike most of the horses in this race, Sabbath Point tends to be closer to the pace, and most likely will not let a horse get too far away.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This filly is a beast.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Expected pace- Mid pack, should be in the first bunch after the pace setters.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>Expected finish- 1<SUP>st<\/SUP><\/STRONG> Should be in the winners circle with carnations at the finish (it is carnations right?).<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>PP8 It\u2019s Rather Cloudy (ENG)<\/STRONG> 14\/1- <STRONG><EM>Borrow (355-51-53-41)<\/EM><\/STRONG><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\"><\/SPAN>J White (21.5%-53%<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>26.1%-59% in 2008)<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>In post eight we have a scratch bred out the super turf sire Pivital (GB) out of a Storm Cat mare.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is a filly that was a beast as a two year old, but whose form has tapered off since her dominating GII win in December.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She started out on fire winning her first four races, but has not reached the winners circle since, and no top three finishes either.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She tried the turf two races back and that was an unmitigated disaster finishing last in a four horse field as an even money favorite.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her last race was a career best speed figure of 99, but that is not going to be enough this week.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I think you get what you see in this filly in that I don\u2019t see any great increases of form, she was a dominating two year old, and that is what it is.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I have had several of those types including one that won over 800K as a two year old, so I share your annoyance that they are washed up at three.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This will be a great mare at some pi9nt and should be a solid point producer for some time.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Expected pace- Deep closer.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>Expected finish- 10<SUP>th<\/SUP><\/STRONG> Don\u2019t see much of a shot this week.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Not the same horse she was last year.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>PP9 Prado\u2019s Ballado (KY)<\/STRONG> 17\/1- <STRONG><EM>Jockeymax6 (814-183-148-100)<\/EM><\/STRONG><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\"><\/SPAN>B F Abman (21.9%-54%<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>22.3%-52% in 2008)<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Yet another scratch bred, this one a daughter of El Prado (IRE) out of a Saint Ballado mare with six career wins.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This lady ran a very impressive 101 in a stakes race last time out, but must be looked at critically.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The 101 was against only four other horses, and her true form is more of her 13<SUP>th<\/SUP> place finish in a GI two races back.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She has won five of her last six races, but none of the wins were in fields greater than eight horses.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I really have no idea where this one will be.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She should be somewhere mid pack early, but I don\u2019t know if she has the turn of foot to be moving late.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She should absolutely love the distance as she has stamina influences all over the place.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She could get a check, but I don\u2019t think she has much of a shot to win.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Expected pace- Deep closer\/ midpack.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>Expected finish- 7<SUP>th<\/SUP><\/STRONG> Not sure who she can pass late to get up for a check; there simply is not bad speed in this race.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>PP10 Grandstand Delight (KY)<\/STRONG> 7\/1- <STRONG><EM>Al (1116-168-152-149)<\/EM><\/STRONG><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\"><\/SPAN>N Lawton (18.5%-46%<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>23.8%-54% in 2008)<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Next up we have a daughter of Rock Hard Ten out of the dam Cat Phyllis (G-rated Storm Cat x Seattle Slew) with four wins in eleven starts.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is another filly that will have raced in all three legs of the Triple Tiara, and has a very good shot at the huge upset.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This girl is always moving at the leaders at the finish, but doesn\u2019t usually get there.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Do you know why?<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In her last three races she averages about 14 lengths of the pace at the second call.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The added distance might really suit her, and actually might like two miles at some point, and hell could run three is she had to.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She should be flying at the end, but probably won\u2019t get there for the win, but should be in the money at the wire.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>There is not a lot of pace in this race so it does not set up real well, but she is talented and will be passing horses late based on pure class.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Expected pace- Deep deep closer, makes the other deep closers looks like speed balls.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>Expected finish- 3<SUP>rd<\/SUP><\/STRONG> has not been close in the last two legs and I see nothing to change that this week.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If there is an upset however, this is one of two that could do it. <\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>PP11 Saarahy (KY) <\/STRONG>10\/1- <STRONG><EM>Simond2 (1254-172-145-155)<\/EM><\/STRONG><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\"><\/SPAN>P Cadigan (13.1%-38%<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>13.1%-41% in 2008)<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>In post eleven we have a daughter of Saarland (Unbridled- I had to look too) out of the mare Dancing Rahy (G-rated Rahy x Northern Dancer) with six career wins, five of which are listed stakes wins.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her last race was the Bluegrass oaks, and she ran a very respectable fifth place with a 103 speed figure.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is the other true speed of the race, although she is better in a stalking trip and that is where I expect to see her.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If however she breaks badly she could let the inside speed get away to an uncontested lead that is bad for everybody except Cosimo.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I don\u2019t think she has the speed to get the lead, but should be pretty close to what should be a softish pace.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I think she gets a check, but I don\u2019t see a scenario that sets her up for a win this week.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I think she will handle the distance fine, but there are some questions to be answered on that.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Expected pace- On the lead or close to it.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>Expected finish- 5<SUP>th<\/SUP><\/STRONG> if she can repeat her Bluegrass oaks performance she could hit board.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>PP12 Impact\u2019s Empire (JPN)<\/STRONG> 59\/1- <STRONG><EM>Timmo601 (66-10-3-13)<\/EM><\/STRONG><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\"><\/SPAN>O A Haack (19.9%-50%<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>22.5%-53% in 2008)<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Next up is the Japanese invader, Impact\u2019s Empire (JPN) who is a very lightly raced daughter of Deep Impact out of the mare Sadler\u2019s Wells (G-rated Empire Maker x Sadler\u2019s Wells).<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She has only four career starts, with only a maiden victory to show.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Normally I would say this horse has zero business being in this race, BUT why not.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She is bred to run all day and part of the next, she ran a career best 95 speed figure in her last race at eleven furlongs, and the field was not full.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>So why not take a shot this week.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I don\u2019t hear anyone complaining about casino drive in the Belmont this week after only three races.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She appears to be a deep closer, but two of her four starts have been in very short fields, so who knows where exactly she will be early.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This horse is an absolute wild card.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Do I think she can win?<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Nope, I seriously doubt it.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Can I say she has zero chance of running a big race?<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Nope can\u2019t say that either.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I think we will be hearing from this horse in the fall.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Expected pace- Deep closer.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>Expected finish- 12<SUP>th<\/SUP><\/STRONG> lacks experience, but might be a very classy horse that could pick up a surprise check.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>PP13 Dream Cat<\/STRONG> <STRONG>(KY)<\/STRONG> 13\/1- <STRONG><EM>Elzid (315-23-31-36)<\/EM><\/STRONG><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0<\/SPAN>A Rolling (22.9%-56%<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>28.3%-60% in 2008)<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>On the outside we have a scratch bred daughter of Bluegrass Cat out of a Northern Dancer mare with only two career victories.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This lady had a graded stakes win to talk about, but the problem is that was back in last July, and has not found the winners since.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her form however is very good right now.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She has run back to back career best 97 speed figures in her last two races.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Two races back she finished a decent fourth in the GI Senorita, and was finished 12<SUP>th<\/SUP> in the Bluegrass Oaks in her last start.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If she can capture those two efforts or something similar she should be in the top half of the field with a chance at a check.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If however she fails to fire it could be a very ugly finish.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her speed figures have been on the steady rise, and she could move up after her last race.<\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri>Expected pace- Mid pack\/stalker.<SPAN style=\"mso-spacerun: yes\">\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><FONT face=Calibri><STRONG>Expected finish- 6<SUP>th<\/SUP><\/STRONG> She appears to be improving and could get a piece. <\/FONT><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><o:p><FONT face=Calibri>\u00a0<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/P><P class=MsoNormal style=\"MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt\"><o:p><FONT face=Calibri>\u00a0<\/FONT><\/o:p><\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Twelve 3yo fillies try to gun down favorite<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":297,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6099","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/297"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6099"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6099\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}