{"id":6067,"date":"2008-05-30T03:42:59","date_gmt":"2008-05-30T03:42:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=6067"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=6067","title":{"rendered":"Juveniles Seek Grade 2 Glory"},"content":{"rendered":"

The two year olds get to chase Graded glory this week in Vermont<\/st1:place><\/st1:State>. Taking on the six furlongs of The Vermont BB Juvenile<\/I>, a full field will contest race 14, a Grade 2 event on a fast dirt track. The winner gets to take home the lion\u2019s share of $250,000 and be virtually guaranteed a start in any race which connections chose to enter, at least in the short to medium term. As to be expected with so little exposed form, the early oddsmakers are not prepared to take any risks, and so they\u2019ve installed Tonight Show<\/B> as the favorite at a backable quote of 9\/2. To avoid any huge plunges, they have listed nine of the runners at 11\/1, and you\u2019ll be lucky to get the 25\/1 they\u2019ve suggested for the rank outsider. We\u2019ve not a real lot to go on, but we\u2019ll work our way through the field<\/P>

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The early market is:<\/P>

9\/2 \u2013 Tonight Show<\/P>

6\/1 \u2013 Incredible Law, Pagan Stone<\/P>

8\/1 \u2013 Boy Sense<\/P>

9\/1 \u2013 Thornton<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> Mellon<\/P>

11\/1 \u2013 Rally Van, Gringo, Grand<\/st1:PlaceName> Land<\/st1:PlaceType><\/st1:place>, Morning Jewel<\/P>

13\/1 \u2013 Nonzolo<\/P>

14\/1 \u2013 Misty Whisper<\/P>

19\/1 \u2013 Man Du Mout, Ivory Quest<\/P>

25\/1 \u2013 \u00a0<\/SPAN>Signed Up<\/P>

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Looking through the runners in betting order:<\/P>

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9\/2 \u2013 #10<\/st1:Street> –<\/st1:address> Tonight Show \u2013<\/B> The bookmakers obviously know something we don\u2019t here, as the favorite does not boast the unbeaten record which is the feature of four of his opponents here. Nor can does he hold the mantle of the fastest entrant, with an opponent having registered winning times of 1.11.6, whereas this bloke has yet to cross the line in under 1.12. There can be no doubting that he carries enviable bloodlines, being a scratchbred son of Storm Cat \/ Danzig \/ Forty Niner<\/I>. Fattatack <\/B>is almost certainly impressed with the colt\u2019s progress so far, but if they are a betting stable, they\u2019re entitled to ask for a more realistic price about Tonight Show<\/B>.<\/P>

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6\/1 \u2013 #2<\/st1:Street> –<\/st1:address> Incredible Law \u2013 <\/B>With two wins and a second from three, including a victory at stakes level, this colt looks to have a bright future ahead. We don\u2019t know how fast he can go. He rated an 80 at his debut run. That\u2019s the highest speed number on the formpage, but on that occasion it was good enough for just the runner-up check in that Upper New York<\/st1:place> maiden. He hasn\u2019t needed to go so fast since, as he\u2019s accounted for all the opposition which has taken him on without needing to call on his full reserves. A son of Lawyer Ron<\/I>, based on triple stakeswinner Incredible Mojo<\/B> (Storm Cat \/ Crafty Prospector<\/I>) the Tg<\/B> bred and raced colt looms as a second to none chance. Unlikely to lead, I\u2019d expect\u00a0Incredible Law<\/STRONG>\u00a0to cross to the fence and settle midfield, before powering home.<\/P>

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6\/1 \u2013 #3 \u2013 Pagan Stone \u2013 <\/B>Slightly disappointing eight weeks ago when stepping out for just the second time, when so much was expected from him following his demolition of fourteen opponents in a stakeswinning debut. He\u2019s nonetheless retained the respect of the oddsmakers, due no doubt to a combination of impressive breeding, and that most convincing victory in the $125,000 black type event back in February. A son of Johannesburg<\/I><\/st1:City><\/st1:place>, he\u2019s already maintained the perfect stakes producing record of his dam Dan\u2019s Queen<\/B> (Danzig \/ Secretariat<\/I>), whose only other progeny is the stakes winning, Graded placed filly Lifeless Pulp<\/B> (Smart Strike<\/I>). I\u2019d suggest the family history makes a significant contribution to the shortish price, as form alone would have the Avalanche3 <\/B>colt at a more generous quote. He\u2019ll drop out early, and his not-so-flash jockey will be encouraging the gaps to open in the run home<\/P>

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8\/1 \u2013 #6<\/st1:Street> –<\/st1:address> Boy Sense \u2013 <\/B>Proven form has not accounted too much in the framing of the market here, as the first of four unbeaten colts comes under notice. His debut run over five furlongs was full of merit. 1.05.0 and a 75 against a full field back in March is most commendable. The speed number dropped next start, but that Japan<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> allowance carried a $64k prize pool, and this fellow, although eased on the line, was extending his gap over the rest of the field. A son of Street Sense<\/I>, his dam Boy Linda<\/B> (Forty Niner \/ Selkirk<\/I>) was a dual stakeswinner, and five time placed in Graded races including a Grade 1. She\u2019s no slouch as a broodmare either, turning out SW (and in turn SW producer) Oh Boy Linda<\/B> (Regal Classic<\/I>) at her first try, before SP Top Exsecutive<\/B> (Lemon Drop Kid<\/I>) two years later. There\u2019s still hope for Boy George<\/B> (Giacomo<\/I>) and with this one looking most likely to make the black type level, owner \/ trainer Bluelights<\/B> is carving an impressive dynasty. The last furlong may be interesting as he\u2019s not gone six previously, but I expect him to jump quickly and sit outside Rally Van<\/B>, ideally positioned to motor home. <\/P>

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9\/1 \u2013 #11 – Thornton Mellon \u2013 <\/B>With two wins and a fifth from his three runs, he\u2019s the better performed of only two runners with previous Graded experience. Although only fifth behind Osotogari<\/B> in the G3-Television Stakes<\/I>, the event was a five furlong scamper and he was doing his best work at the finish, indicating that the extra furlong here will be to his advantage. Prior to that he didn\u2019t set the track on fire speed wise, but he won both the maiden and allowance with authority. Scratchbred by trainer Dolphinman<\/B>, he carries the blood of Cat Thief \/ Awesome Again \/ A.P. Indy<\/I>. The barrier is of no consequence, as he\u2019ll drop out early, and although he\u2019s still to try the six furlong trip, he\u2019s almost certain to handle it. Sadly, he won\u2019t be ridden by one of the elite, but F Neely (8%)<\/I> is more than competent and the earlier high class racing has to be an added advantage.<\/P>

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11\/1 \u2013 #1 – Rally Van \u2013 <\/B>Unbeaten colt who looks to have been underrated in the early market. Certainly, his speeds have not been as impressive as some of his opponents this week, but they haven\u2019t needed to be. There are no bonuses for large winning margins, and any jockey worth his salt is going to put the whip away once the job is done and the race is won. Speaking of jockeys, S. Kratch<\/I> isn\u2019t among the upper echelon, but he won\u2019t be able to offer any excuses if he doesn\u2019t perform in this. His mount is drawn the most prized barrier, and in his two earlier victories has established that he can either lead or take a sit. A very nice plus in a race where so much is unproven. Rally Van<\/B> is a son of Van Nistelrooy<\/I>, the first foal of Ashleigh<\/B>\u2019s nicely bred under achiever Jupiter Rally<\/B> (Came Home \/ A.P. Indy<\/I>). There\u2019s no reason to suggest he can\u2019t go on with it here.<\/P>

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11\/1 \u2013 #7<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Gringo \u2013 <\/B>Have to be nice here\u2026can\u2019t go upsetting the boss. On a serious note, the oddsmakers appear to have overlooked the potential for improvement here. The debut run on the dirt resulted in a speed rating of 70. Not at all shabby back in February. The soft follow up win only expanded this colt\u2019s future options. Turf or dirt? \u00a0<\/SPAN>Doesn\u2019t really matter. Gringo is a son of Toccet<\/I>, the fifth offspring of the owner\u2019s triple stakeswinning, Grade 2 placed Broad Raise<\/B> (Broad Brush \/ Raise a Native<\/I>). Of her other progeny, only Humboldt Station<\/B> (High Yield<\/I>) has achieved black type status, so it won\u2019t surprise if this fellow goes on to be the pick of the bunch. Roys<\/B><\/st1:place><\/st1:City> has obviously been to busy this week to employ a real jockey, but Ahrens<\/I> should have enough sense to slide across just behind the leaders and remain within striking range<\/P>

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11\/1 \u2013 #8<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Grand<\/B><\/st1:PlaceName> Land<\/st1:PlaceType><\/B><\/st1:place> \u2013 <\/B>Another unbeaten colt running around at what appears a ridiculously generous quote! What does he need to do to gain a little respect? Two runs for two wins. Both over this trip. Inreased his speed rating by 9 points at his second run. Stopped the clock at 1.11.6 in a rich Eastern Kentucky<\/st1:place> allowance five weeks ago. He\u2019s got a decent jockey and he\u2019ll settle back before unleashing a late run. Grand Land<\/B> is a son of Indian Charlie<\/I> from Land Slam<\/B> (Grand Slam \/ Dixieland Band<\/I>), Graywolf3<\/B>\u2019s superb A rated broodmare. Four previous progeny have produced SP Charmeer<\/B> (Silver Charm<\/I>) and Graded placed stakeswinner Wolf\u2019s Slam<\/B> (French Deputy<\/I>). If sim-genetics count for anything, this bloke deserves to be favorite.<\/P>

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11\/1 \u2013 #12<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Morning Jewel \u2013 <\/B>It\u2019s a big step from maiden to Graded racing, but this colt couldn\u2019t have been more impressive at his only run to date. Dominating a rich Kentucky<\/st1:place><\/st1:State> maiden six weeks ago, he stopped the clock at 1.11.8, and he won\u2019t need to find an awful lot more to put himself among the main threats this week. A son of Dixie Union, he\u2019s the second foal of the four time stakes placed El Corredor \/ Polish Numbers mare Purple Stars. Breeder trainer Marksund owns half the mare, and sent her to Mingun last year, where she produced stakeswinner Midnight Jewel, so a more than handy family is developing nicely. I\u2019d have liked to see him tackle a race mid way between the debut and Graded racing, and he may get caught a little wide if he races forward from this gate. Of course, these may prove to be unfounded concerns, and as he\u2019s done nothing wrong, he must be treated with respect<\/P>

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13\/1 \u2013 #13<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Nonzolo \u2013 <\/B>One of only two runners with previous Graded experience, he was beaten just over two lengths last time out, but I can\u2019t see him turning the tables on Thornton Mellow. Of course, this fellow was having just his second run, as opposed to the other one\u2019s third, but the race was over five furlongs. The other bloke was finishing strongly at the end of the event, whereas this colt had had enough. Again, perhaps I\u2019m looking for flaws where there are none. At this time of their careers, they can improve markedly from one run to the next, and he\u2019s certainly earned the right to be here. Breeder \/ Trainer used the scratchbred lines of Sky Mesa \/ Dehere \/ Kingmambo in forming Nonzolo, so there\u2019s nothing lacking there. He can run a good race, but I wouldn\u2019t be lining up with too much confidence.<\/P>

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14\/1 \u2013\u00a0 <\/SPAN>#5 – Misty Whisper \u2013<\/B> We\u2019re getting out a bit in the market now, and this colt looks, thus far, not as well prepared for a race of this nature as some of his opponents. A winner on debut on the grass, connections then gave him his second run on the dirt. He didn\u2019t see that race out, and he has to go an extra furlong this week. I\u2019m not saying he can\u2019t do it, but it does seem a big ask to tackle Grade 3 company, with just one unsuccessful dirt allowance run on the board. A son of Latent Heat<\/I>, he\u2019s the fifth issue of the Grade 2 winner Misty Woodbine<\/B> (Miswaki \/ Danzig<\/I>). The first four all found there way to claimers. With apologies to Vertain6<\/B>, I just can\u2019t get excited about Misty Whisper\u2019s<\/B> chances.<\/P>

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19\/1 \u2013 #9 – Man Du Mout \u2013 <\/B>This colt has taken three attempts to break his maiden, and then steps up to Graded competition at his next start. If I were framing the market he\u2019d be longer than the 19\/1 on offer. Looking for positives, he does run his races out strongly, so he\u2019ll almost certainly be doing his best work at the finish. Looking at his bloodlines, he\u2019ll be doing much better work later in the year when the racing gets longer. Of course, looking at his bloodlines, he should be doing it on the grass, so perhaps we\u2019d better not look at his bloodlines. Man Du Mout<\/B> is a son of Manduro<\/I>, the first issue of De Motu<\/B> (Galileo \/ Ela Mana Mou<\/I>). I can\u2019t hold out much hope for the Lglong2 bred<\/B> and trained colt.<\/P>

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19\/1 \u2013 #14<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Ivory Quest \u2013 <\/B>This bloke looks to have snuck under the radar, and stable followers are certain to be lining up for a bet at the 19\/1 on offer. What has he done to be at such generous odds? Two wins and a second from three. The barrier may be a contributor to the price, but he\u2019s shown in his two wins that he can either lead or come from behind. He\u2019s got a handy jockey. In fact, he\u2019s got a lot more going for him than some of his shorter priced rivals. A son of Ivory Touch, he\u2019s the first progeny of Thug\u2019s Request (Coronado<\/st1:place><\/st1:City>\u2019s Quest \/ Dare and Go). Perhaps the bookmakers remember her, but if they do it should be fondly, as she would have put plenty into their bags with her woeful one win from thirty two. If you like Ivory Quest, don\u2019t be put off by the price. He\u2019ll beat plenty home.<\/P>

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25\/1 \u2013 #4<\/st1:Street> \u2013<\/st1:address> Signed Up<\/B> \u2013 Yep. I have no idea how they framed the book for this race. The work experience kid, or the new apprentice got the job perhaps. Sure, the colt needs to shave a second off his best time, but you don\u2019t need to run time when you\u2019re first to the wire. Two wins in a row. Both over this trip. But then, stable followers were nicely rewarded at the windows in both of those races, so they\u2019ll be lining up for another tilt this week. And rightly so. A son of Include, he\u2019s the third progeny of Graded placed stakeswinner Heavenly Host<\/B> (Septieme Ciel \/ Kingmambo<\/I>), whose second foal, Incredible Cause<\/B> (Giant\u2019s Causeway<\/I><\/st1:place>) has been successful at stakes level. Owner oneworld<\/B> can reasonably expect a far better run from Signed Up<\/B> than the oddsmakers are predicting.<\/P>

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Summary:<\/U> <\/B>A tough race, and as we\u2019d expect in an early two year old classic, anything could probably happen. From a betting perspective, I don\u2019t believe there is much value at the top of the charts, with the three runners at the top of the market all having \u2018convictions\u2019, while four unbeaten colts run around at much better prices. If you fancy Boy Sense, Rally Van, Grand<\/st1:PlaceName> Land<\/st1:PlaceType><\/st1:place><\/B> or Morning Jewel<\/B>, then an across the board wager on any one of them could prove very rewarding. The best speed rating on the page belongs to Incredible Law<\/B>, who, along with Pagan Stone<\/B>, represent the previous stakes winners. The best Graded performance (albeit from just one race at the level) comes from Thornton Mellow<\/B>. Down the bottom of the market, Ivory Quest<\/B> and Signed Up<\/B> both appear to have been treated harshly and could add real value to the exotics. Gringo<\/B> is a bit of an unknown quantity, with plenty of upside. I\u2019m not saying Tonight Show<\/B> cannot win, but he is not good value in a tough race. Nonzolo, Misty Whisper<\/B> and Man Du Mout<\/B> all look to have been set huge tasks.<\/P>

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Selections:<\/U><\/STRONG><\/P>

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Grand<\/st1:PlaceName> Land<\/st1:PlaceType><\/st1:place> \u2013 Unbeaten and has recorded the fastest winning time over the trip.<\/P>

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Ivory Quest \u2013 Unbelievable Value<\/P>

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Rally Van \u2013 Could dictate the race<\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tonight Show Heads Market in Vermont<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":453,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6067","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/453"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6067"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6067\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6067"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6067"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6067"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}