{"id":6031,"date":"2008-05-22T22:11:45","date_gmt":"2008-05-22T22:11:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=6031"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=6031","title":{"rendered":"\u201cTuesday\u201d Stands Out in \u201cFriday\u201d on Saturday"},"content":{"rendered":"

Saturday\u2019s late pick three in New York, beginning with the Graded I Cosmopolitan, then the Grade II Captain Hook for three-year-olds and ending with the Grade I It\u2019s Almost Friday \u2018Cap for mares, offers players on a budget a possible \u2018free square\u2019 in the final leg.<\/P>

A multiple Grade I winner at age three and currently ranked second in the world among older mares in the route division on dirt, four-year-old Black Tuesday <\/B>is a strong and deserved favorite in the It\u2019s Almost Friday \u2018Cap.<\/P>

A daughter of King of Queens the Second, by Kingmambo, and by recently pensioned former leading sire, Storm Cat, the favorite has left nary a chink in the armor exposed. An eleven-time winner from nineteen starts, with three seconds and three third place finishes and a some spare change short of a million and a half in earnings, questions regarding her innate ability are readily dismissed in deference to the filly\u2019s impeccable credentials and comforting consistency.<\/P>

On Saturday, Black Tuesday runs a mile and a quarter on New York\u2019s main track, projected to be a particularly sloppy version of a sloppy track.<\/P>

She has tried ten furlongs six times against fillies and mares (she faced males once in Dubai\u2019s GI Sand Castle Classic) and has won five times, running third in the one defeat. <\/P>

She has run here, over the New York main track, three times in her career. She was the winner each time, all Grade I races, each employing a different rider despite the three wins occurring consecutively.<\/P>

She has run in six Grade I races against her own gender, all routes, resulting in three wins, two thirds, and a fifth place finish.<\/P>

The mud? She\u2019s two for two on bad tracks, but both registered early in her career. While she proved that she could win in the mud, she hasn\u2019t had to run over it against the type of competition that she has faced for the last twelve months. But, in the context of her performances overall at that point in her career, the mud wins were right on par with the type of races that she had been running over fast, dry tracks.<\/P>

Since reeling off three Grade I wins late in her three-year-old campaign, trainer Lenny Fairhaven has apparently abandoned a strategy geared towards a steady diet of graded races. Instead, the world renowned conditioner has spotted target dates throughout the calendar of graded races to point towards, prefacing each graded performance with a soft race in a minor stakes. To date, the method appears to have been successful. <\/P>

A filly that knows how to win; a trainer that knows how to get her to win.<\/P>

Perhaps the only power working against the favorite would be an expected pace scenario as Black Tuesday is void of early speed, routinely falling fifteen or more lengths off the leader. Unfortunately for her rivals on Saturday, the It\u2019s Almost Friday is composed largely of fillies and mares that prefer to be in close contact with the leader, if not the leader itself.<\/P>

Who else is there? Which of these rivals could run a lifetime best and threaten the favorite mightily?<\/P>

Perhaps the \u2018upside\u2019 play, Millie\u2019s Joy <\/B>has never won a graded race. In fact, over a twenty-five race career so far, she has previously only once attempted graded rivals, finishing fifth this past March in the Dubai Sand Castle Distaff.<\/P>

She has run over an off-track twice in her career, failing to win either.<\/P>

She has routinely, over and over again, faced small fields. Her form is littered with what appear to be good races while facing just three or four others.<\/P>

So what is the upside exactly?<\/P>

Well, she is at her best at this mile and a quarter distance. Her races at ten furlongs are far superior to most of her other races at other distances. While those \u2018superior\u2019 races certainly aren\u2019t mind bogglingly impressive, they do leave one believing that on that day, she could have run with better horses and still performed admirably. <\/P>

Millie\u2019s Joy also appears to have both excellent early speed and the wherewithal to remain focused and undeterred when forced to or willing to run with a target in sight. Though she does show an incredulous number of races where she contested the lead, was passed in the lane, and simply grinded out a minor placing, she also has demonstrated that her \u2018late hang\u2019 is often achieved even when running from a stalking position.<\/P>

With that said, I\u2019m not sure that the filly truly cares where she is in the early stages, she will show speed, her deficiencies seem not to be predicated by failing to secure a particular trip from the start.<\/P>

What does give her an advantage over many of her more accomplished rivals is that many of those do seem to show weaknesses or reveal deficiencies when unable to find a comfort level associated with early position. With several foes that run consistently on the lead, most utterly ineffective when relegated to a spot behind the leaders, Millie\u2019s Joy has enough speed to frustrate most of the competition before the far turn and the fortitude to keep trying when the others spit it out.<\/P>

Is she good enough to win? Yeah, but only if Black Tuesday falters inexplicably. This is Millie\u2019s Joy\u2019s Grade I debut. She has never so much as hit the board in any graded race. Criminy, she\u2019s run more than two dozen times and this is only her second start in graded company. To make matters worse, she has run in four minor stakes in the last few months, winning just once and running second each of the other three times.<\/P>

That may sound like a fairly decent accomplishment until you recognize that those three defeats were in fields that combine to make just ten opponents. Four horse field, four horse field, and a five horse field. Out of four tries at a short price against diminutive, weak minor stakes foes, only one time she managed to come out on top. That doesn\u2019t swell the mind and body with confidence when you know she has to worry about six others in this Grade I race even if she can catch Black Tuesday on a bad day.<\/P>

Another that loves the distance, but can\u2019t seem to clear the hurdle into success in graded races with regularity, Dance of Death<\/B> enters this race with perhaps the best \u2018most recent\u2019 race on her form.<\/P>

Rallying from far behind in the Grade III Bringing Up the Rear Classic at a mile and three-sixteenths, the four-year-old daughter of Mineshaft ended up defeated by just over two lengths. Making up eight lengths in the final quarter to be fourth, it appeared as though today\u2019s ten furlong distance last time, that extra half-furlong, would have given her the needed ground to hit the wire in time.<\/P>

From five starts at a mile and a quarter, Dance of Death has in fact hit the wire first four times, defeated at the distance only in the Grade III Can\u2019t Find Anything Else. <\/P>

She has won over an off track and seems as versatile and tractable a runner as there is in the field. When there is little early speed, she tends to find a good spot close to the lead. When she finds herself amidst a speedy group early, she is capable of settling well off the lead and kicking on quickly.<\/P>

The big knock? She has never really proven her worth outside of minor stakes, usually those with comparably small fields.<\/P>

She had twice run in a graded stakes race prior to running in the Bringing Up the Rear two weeks ago. The Grade III Can\u2019t Find Anything Else resulted in a tenth place finish. A start in the Grade I The Lenny G Show Stakes last September ended in a twenty-three length drubbing.<\/P>

The good news for her is that as far as Grade I races go, this is a darn good spot to look like a prominent factor, perhaps even de facto winner should the favorite falter. Other than Black Tuesday, many of her rivals not only lack the same graded experience, much less success, that Dance of Death does, but they also lack many of her tangible credentials.<\/P>

A P Debbie<\/B> is a hot horse on the class rise, a major class rise, and perhaps the last and most subtle realistic threat to win Saturday\u2019s feature.<\/P>

Her only previous graded stakes appearance, a start in the Grade II Gowader Stakes last October, yielded a ten and a half length defeat, good for ninth place. That represents her lone start in a stakes race of any kind. <\/P>

But alas, this is not an unseasoned, green face venturing out into the universe of racehorse. Saturday will mark her nineteenth career start and she has had her picture snapped five times.<\/P>

So what makes her a \u2018live\u2019 horse in this race? Well, aside from the overall lack of Grade I talent in the field, it is her two most recent starts that make one take a second look at her.<\/P>

Two races ago she made her first start at a mile and a quarter. She won the restricted allowance easily, posting her best speed rating to date. One month later at the same track, she replicated the performance, effortlessly capturing yet another restricted allowance at a mile and a quarter.<\/P>

Those two races alone may be enough evidence that she is the most likely to upset the race. They represent her third and fourth starts to begin her four-year-old campaign. Coupled with the possibility of inherent maturity with age, the fact that she seems to be getting better not only with distance, but with experience, builds a fairly strong case that she is just now getting good.<\/P>

Her speed figures from her two most recent are right on par with type of numbers that even Black Tuesday posts with some of her recent victories. She has a winning running style. She does not, however, have a means to gauge her effectiveness over an off track as she tries mud for the first time this weekend.<\/P>

Which member of this Grade I field began 2008 by competing in a starter allowance for horses which had started for a claiming price of $2,000?<\/P>

The answer is Happy Gambler<\/B>, currently residing in her seventh different barn in just a little over a year. The four-year-old Distorted Humor filly was sold privately twice early in her career before being claimed for $5,000, a race that she lost, remaining a maiden.<\/P>

She did break her maiden in her next start, moving from the grass to dirt, taking a non-winners of two for a claiming price of $2,000. She traded hands a few times shortly thereafter, twice for $2,000, once for $10,000.<\/P>

Since joining this barn, she was won five of thirteen with five second place finishes and ascended the class ladder along the way.<\/P>

Does that really make a case for her winning a Grade I race despite failing in both attempts at minor stakes and with just one of her seven career wins attained outside of maiden, claiming, or starter ranks?<\/P>

No, I can not say with any conviction that this filly has even an outside chance. This barn has done a remarkable job with a $2,000 claim months ago. They have won five races with her, including an allowance, banged around in a couple of minor stakes without being embarrassed and now, their cheap claim is 9-1 in a Grade I race.<\/P>

The grinder of the group, Miss You Hate You<\/B>, does have better form than many of the previously mentioned rivals, with four stakes placings amidst her lengthy record. <\/P>

A twenty-one race veteran, the daughter of Cape Town has amassed nearly $200,000 in winnings while essentially knocking out checks non-stop since her debut in April of 2006. So how can I downplay the role of a filly that has won five allowance races compared to others in the race which have accomplished far less?<\/P>

It simply seems as though we\u2019ve seen the best of this filly and frankly, it probably won\u2019t be enough to do much more than fill in the blanks at the bottom of superfecta tickets.<\/P>

That isn\u2019t to say that she is worse than a particular horse or should have never been considered for this race or anything snide in that vain. She has as much a chance to get a sniff of this race as most of the others. But unlike several of those \u2019others\u2019, this filly has tried almost everything and has shown what her ceiling is, while the \u2019others\u2019 still need to fail at a thing or two before being discredited in that capacity.<\/P>

Of some additional concern is that perhaps she is tailing off anyway. Admittedly, that may be wildly premature as she has run several very good races recently, including perhaps her two best, both on off tracks. But, she was reasonably precocious as a young two-year-old and she has two younger half-siblings that both are (were) two-year-old winners, the elder of the two winning all four races at age two, including a pair of stakes races. <\/P>

Also claimed for $2,000 by the same connections that bring you former $2,000 claimer Happy Gambler, To Live is to Die<\/B> was bred, ironically, by the same people that send out Miss You Hate You and Dance of Death on Saturday.<\/P>

While there seemed to be little evidence supporting the possibility of a win for Happy Gambler, To Live is to Die has accomplished more than her stablemate since being claimed, including two stakes wins and several allowance wins. She has earned $261,869 in her career, $163,405 of which she pulled out of just two muddy track wins from four tries over wet surfaces.<\/P>

She has won stakes races. She has won ten furlong races. She has made a disproportionate amount of her money over bad tracks. This seems like a pretty impressive resume for a filly facing field of blank faces and limited credentials, right?<\/P>

It does indeed. Unfortunately, ascertaining if and when she will uncork the type of race that she occasionally runs, the one that might give her a chance in this race is an effort in futility. I\u2019m not sure if she is simply far too unpredictable and inconsistent for any endorsement or if it is that she has simply revealed herself as an average allowance runner that from time to time, runs off the page.<\/P>

Simply, her talent may or may not be enough. There needs to be some upside or some sex appeal to her form, the threat of an unknown that may be the answer. There just isn\u2019t any of that. She is what she is at this point, and I\u2019m not sold.<\/P>

Dehenny<\/B> began her career as a fairly promising juvenile, winning her debut on the lead throughout and then winning right back, taking the Playful Guest Stakes in just her second start with a tenth to first late rally.<\/P>

Hey, for a 48-1 bomb with absolutely zero chance of getting any part of this race, she\u2019s not a bad filly. Her problem is that she hasn\u2019t been entered within 26,000 zip codes of where she needs to run.<\/P>

Clearly, her old form stamps her as a rock solid high claimer, maybe even well-spotted allowance competitor. A good day in an allowance race might even mark her as worthy of a chance in a minor stakes race. But no, not Grade I races. And there is nothing anywhere on her form to suggest that even against $2,000 claimers does she have any interest in running forty yards farther than seven furlongs at the farthest.<\/P>

The barn has run over 800 horses in its tenure, winning over ten percent of those races. I find it hard to believe that this spot is where the barn expects to win with this mare. Perhaps a few more poor races on her form and she\u2019ll be up for sale in the claiming ranks at a big price.<\/P><\/FONT><\/FONT><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Black Tuesday Too Much For Amateurs<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":200,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6031","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/200"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6031"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6031\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6031"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6031"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6031"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}