{"id":586,"date":"2005-09-15T01:19:46","date_gmt":"2005-09-15T01:19:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=586"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=586","title":{"rendered":"Guaranteed Long Shot"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a weekend light on graded races around the world, simulcasting fans and North Dakota<\/st1:place> faithful will turn their attention to one of the most contentious races of the season, the $250,000 Grade II Middle Ground Mile for three year olds and up.<\/P>

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In this full field of 14, no horse is expected to go off at less than 6-1 odds.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Even last year\u2019s eclipse award runner up Tuff Enuff <\/B>will go off at 10-1, and the longest shot on the board, at 25-1, has six graded in the money finishes in his 12 starts.<\/P>

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Every horse has a reason he can win; every horse has a reason he should lose.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Pick your angle and enjoy the ride.<\/P>

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Here is a look at the field:<\/P>

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  1. Deep closer Avacodo Bill<\/B> (6yo h, Secret Odds x Sadler\u2019s Well\u2019s x Night Invader) will have plenty of speed to run at in this.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The Rouk<\/I> (11%) trained horse has five stakes wins, including the G2 Brooke Lynn.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He finished a third last out as the second choice in the G2 Copenhagen.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Always dangerous and in good form, he has been in the money in 6 of his last 7 races.<\/LI><\/OL>

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    1. King Cadet<\/B> (4 yo c, Danzig<\/st1:place> x Big Project (Mr. Prospector) x Big Spruce) has been winless since a Tuesday allowance race eight months and eight races ago.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>However, the Cadet<\/I> (14%) trainee owns five in the money finishes in that time including a fading second in the G2 Mansur LeRoys Handicap.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He runs near the front and has been successful at both one- and two-turn races.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Jockey DeMoney has struggled bringing them home.<\/LI><\/OL>

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      1. An impressive 11% of the offspring of Best of the Bests(IRE), sire of Best of the Sun (IRE)<\/B> (4 yo c, Best of the Bests(IRE) x Honor Grades x Scenic (IRE)), are stakes winners, although none has won a graded stakes yet.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Out of the successful Sunline<\/I> (17%) stable, Sun has finished first or second in eight if his last ten races.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He delivered as the co-favorite last out in The Fager\u2019s Poster Challenge and ships in from that effort in Malaysia<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Dependable hard knocker and a lukewarm co-favorite here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Another that usually runs near the lead.<\/LI><\/OL>

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        1. God\u2019s Gift<\/B> (3 yo c, Fusaichi Pegasus x Fat Cat (Storm Cat) x Woodman) already owns six wins in his ten starts, all this year.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has a second in the G2 Buckeye Derby and a win against older in the No Reception SQ Cap two races back.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Another early runner, but at 17-1 the Lulu <\/I>(14%) trained, expensively bred colt deserves a long look.<\/LI><\/OL>

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          1. Robert the Bruce<\/B> (5 yo h, Mt.<\/st1:PlaceType> Livermore x Roberto x In Reality) made his stakes debut last time a success, wiring Avacodo Bill and six others in the G2 Copenhagen Cup.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has been patiently handled by Dioscuri<\/I> (14%), while winning a third of his two-turn races.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has won every other race for the past six months.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Bad news about that pattern is if it continues, you should look for his next<\/I> race.<\/LI><\/OL>

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            1. North Dakota<\/st1:place><\/st1:State>\u2019s top jockey, J Hernandez, chose to ride the longest shot in the race, Instant Classic<\/B> (3 yo c, Forty Niner x Unbridled x Northern Dancer).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Classic won his last two races easily in unimpressive times against short fields, and that, besides his age, may account for the long odds.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>But prior to that, ace trainer SoCalMan<\/I> (29%), entered him in seven straight graded stakes against three year olds, and the royally bred colt finished in the money six times.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Before we get too excited, we should note that he won none of those races, and he has yet to face older.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>OK, at 25-1, we can get a little excited.<\/LI><\/OL>

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              1. A controversial trainer once criticized how frequently LadySierra1<\/I> (16%) ran Tuff Enuff<\/B> (4 yo c, Chester House x Bridget Jones (Octagonal (NZ)) x Academy Award) as a three year old, but the results were astounding: $5,000,000 in the bank; wins in the G1 Middle Jewel, New Yorker, and Breeders Bowl Classic Stakes; second fastest 12f of the year; second in the Eclipse Award voting for three year old colts.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Alas, the four year old campaign has not been as impressive.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He got his first win in eight starts last out in the ungraded Carnival Kid Memorial Stakes, wiring the field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It was his first time trying to run in a front-running manor, and it will be interesting to see what instructions LadySierra gives jockey L Callow this time.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Odds are 10-1 on the colt still rated number six in the world.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                1. Primetime Emblem<\/B> (4 yo c, Our Emblem x Danzig x Storm Cat) ran well in 23 sprints, winning eight times, then tried a two-turn graded stakes last time out, where he finished third in the G2 Upstate BB Stakes after holding a large lead into the stretch.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>SS89<\/I> (12%) was encouraged enough to try again against these.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Runs early, and there are too many of this type to recommend here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>On the other hand, he knows how to win\u2026\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/LI><\/OL>

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                  1. Go King Kirby<\/B> (5 yo h, Kingmambo x Siler Ghost x Bold Ruler) hasn\u2019t finished in the money in over 30 weeks.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>However, if there was ever a time for a late runner like this Kirby55<\/I> (16%) trainee to wake up, this is the field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Excuse me while I wait for more signs of life, though.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                    1. Noting the competitive field, trainer Calle2<\/I> (11%) waited until the last minute to enter Tom E Nearctic<\/B> (4 yo c, E Dubai<\/st1:place> x Tom Rolfe x Nearctic) in this race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Tom owns the second most stakes points (to Tuff Enuff) in the field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He owns two stakes wins this year, including the G1 Diplomat way.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He tends to come from mid-pack or further back. Much to like here.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                      1. Jockey K Killeen is a top ten jockey and signs aboard to ride Danzig with Buda <\/B>(4yo c, Danzig x Nijinsky II x Nureyev).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The Juju<\/I> (17%) trainee runs evenly.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His most impressive outing was the G1 Grenoble Sport as a three year old, but he is winless in 2005.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                        1. Big Biz<\/B> (4 yo c, Spectacular Bid x Risen Star x Cox\u2019s Ridge) seems to have learned to rate last out, winning the Koopa Troopa Cap.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That\u2019s the good news.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Out of the Punisher<\/I> (9%) barn, the bad news is his speed figures have not consistently been in triple digits, like many have been.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                          1. Winner of three graded stakes, Red Hot Cat<\/B> (4 yo c, Silver Deputy x Tabasco<\/st1:place><\/st1:State> Cat x Devil\u2019s Bag), the co-favorite gets jockey W Von Wedel, who is winning at a 19% clip for the year. Mirasol\u2019s <\/I>(15%) colt has shown the ability to win on the lead and just off it.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Much to like.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                            1. The number three North Dakota<\/st1:place> jockey, P Gangi, opts for the out side horse Holiday Hostage<\/B> (Robellino x Palace Music x Conquistador Cielo).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The successful IdStable<\/I> (18%) trains.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Like Tuff Enuff, he may have peaked last year.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His best race came 43 weeks ago, though if he could repeat that here, he would crush the field.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                              Morning line picks: 3-13-1-10<\/P>

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                              Timmn\u2019s picks: 10-6-1-4<\/P>

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                              To comment, email timmn@hotmail.com<\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                              Favorites at least 6-1<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":432,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-586","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/586","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/432"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=586"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/586\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=586"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=586"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=586"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}