{"id":5764,"date":"2008-04-10T23:45:37","date_gmt":"2008-04-10T23:45:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=5764"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=5764","title":{"rendered":"Corkscrew Derby Lock"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hey, Buddy, you wanna know who\u2019s going to win the Bluegrass<\/st1:place> this year?\u201d<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

At the conclusion of the Grade I Corkscrew we may well have the answer.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The past three Bluegrass<\/st1:place> winners, and four of the past seven, all were winners in the Corkscrew as they prepped for that more famous race.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

In fact, betting on the Corkscrew winner has been a winning formula in all three Triple Crown races.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The past Corkscrew winners have eight wins in 15 Triple Crown starts.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

But not everyone is impressed with this year\u2019s field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Corky Thibodeau, a longtime handicapper, thinks trainers are approaching things differently this year.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

\u201cIt used to be you needed some solid wins to make the Derby<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Now you just need one,\u201d says Thibodeau, \u201cAnd once you get that win, you stop racing until the Derby<\/st1:place><\/st1:City>.\u201d\u00a0 <\/SPAN>\u00a0\u00a0<\/SPAN>Qualification rules were changed last year in an attempt to allow the hot three-year-olds into the race at the expense of horses that had earned their points as two-year-olds.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Several races, including the Corkscrew, were designated Derby Lock races \u2013 a win automatically qualifies your horse into the field.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

\u201cTwo years ago there were four colts with graded wins in the field, and last year there were three.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This year, there\u2019s only one,\u201d Thibodeau observed.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

While it\u2019s true that no entry in the field is currently rated in the top 30 of the division, Derby<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> bettors might forgive the lack of previous high-level success.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Both Ataun<\/B> and Virtuoso<\/B> entered the Corkscrew without a graded win on their resume.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Here is a look at the field:<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP 1 HEAVEN’S DISTRESS(KY) <\/STRONG><\/SPAN>(BERNARDINI x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x STORM CAT) bred and trained by binky<\/I><\/B> (Elenalag Stables, 8%) Odds: 13-1<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Back routing after a second in a small overnight sprint where he finished second.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He lacks a triple digit speed figure, does not own a stakes win, and makes a huge class jump.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His biggest asset may be his breeding.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Elenalag Stables found an unraced very expensively bred mare.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This one is her first runner, and his future looks bright, but it\u2019s probably too early in his career to expect what will be needed to win today.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP 2 SEREVUS(KY) <\/STRONG><\/SPAN>(DYNAFORMER x SAKURA SEEKING x PULPIT) bred and trained by babycolt<\/I><\/B> (Stoddard Stables, 13%)\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Odds: 24-1<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

He gets the longest odds in a race with many longshots.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That\u2019s probably not fair, as he beat another in this field last time, and that colt is at half the odds.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Severus is out of a turf specialist mare, but so far he\u2019s stayed on the dirt and seems to like it.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He was a high priced second last time in his stakes debut against a moderate overnight field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The class jump is formidable, but he did show a marked improvement last time, and three-year-olds can build on sudden improvement.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP 3 DHARMA INITIATIVE(KY) <\/STRONG><\/SPAN>(MINESHAFT x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x BLUSHING GROOM(FR)) bred and trained by willyam46<\/I><\/B> (Willyam13 Stables, 9%) Odds: 8-1<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Every previous Corkscrew winner has finished fourth or better in a graded stakes in his previous start.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Dharma\u2019s one of only two colts here to meet that criterion by finishing second in the G3 Tommy Wayne Johnson (the other is Sahara<\/B><\/st1:PlaceName> <\/B>Desert<\/B><\/st1:PlaceType><\/st1:place>)<\/B>.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He\u2019s had six weeks to recover from that effort, but that patient spacing has been his pattern all along.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Sire is producing nearly 14% stakes winners. All systems look go for this one.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Normally steady jockey is having a tough time getting going this year, but gets a live mount today.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP 4 ZIGS AGAIN(KY) <\/STRONG><\/SPAN>(AWESOME AGAIN x DANZIG<\/st1:place> x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by cleverdoc<\/I><\/B> (Cleverdoc Stables, 18%) Odds: 13-1<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Last three races have been wins in MSW, N2L, and N3L to bring his record to three wins and a second in four routes, and all the while he\u2019s been just getting faster.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>And in a race filled with horses that like to come from well off the pace, he should be able to find an open spot just behind the early pace.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That\u2019s all nice, and he\u2019s surely a nice colt with a promising feature.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>But you just aren\u2019t supposed to go from a five-horse N3L allowance in China<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> to winning a Grade I stakes.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>And if you do, you\u2019re supposed to pay more than 13-1.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP 5 SAHARA DESERT(AUS) <\/STRONG><\/SPAN>(ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x STORM CAT x CLEVER TRICK) bred and trained by godmother<\/I><\/B> (Tropicount Stables, 14%) Odds: 6-1<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

One of three co-favorites at 6-1. This colt has a lot to offer.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has a large class edge on most of the field. \u00a0<\/SPAN>He\u2019s been in the money in two graded stakes, including last time in the very tough All Saints.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He\u2019s the only one to have 100+ speed figures in both of his last two races.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Jockey is red hot and has won this race twice in the last three years.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The race looks to set up for one that can run close to the pace, and he qualifies on that score too.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His dam was well-bred but slow.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>There are some that say such mares are not worth breeding to.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Let this runner be proof that ain\u2019t necessarily so.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP 6 THIS CALLING(IRE) <\/STRONG><\/SPAN>(SADLER’S WELLS x ALYDAR x BUCKPASSER) bred and trained by arse2007<\/I><\/B> (Black Label Stables, 19%) Odds: 18-1<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Fourteenth qualifier out of 17 entrants.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He was able to chase down some lone speed in a Wyoming<\/st1:place><\/st1:State> allowance race last time, earning a decent 97 speed figure.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He truly does have a serious rally in him and if he\u2019s not overwhelmed by the huge class jump, he might be a factor late.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Best guess is that he will be overwhelmed though.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He tried a couple minor stakes last year and did not look good.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP 7 CRAZED(KY) <\/STRONG><\/SPAN>(EMPIRE MAKER x FORTY NINER x STORM CAT) bred and trained by malekfarms<\/I><\/B> (Afc Stables, 17%) Odds: 10-1<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Went off at the same odds last time in the Sand<\/st1:PlaceName> Castle<\/st1:PlaceType><\/st1:place>, and he looked like he didn\u2019t belong.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It would be nice to blame it on the sloppy track, but his best lifetime race was the time before and that was also on an off track.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His other graded stakes try last October also was not good.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He likes to sit mid-pack and sometimes fires and sometimes doesn\u2019t.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Until he proves he can handle the class, I\u2019ll pass at this level.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP 8 <\/SPAN>LIFELESS PULP(KY) <\/SPAN><\/STRONG>(SMART STRIKE x <\/SPAN>DANZIG<\/SPAN><\/st1:place> x SECRETARIAT) bred and trained by <\/SPAN>rori<\/SPAN><\/I> (Pierchinski Stables, 18%) Odds: 11-1<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/H2>

Two races back he finished a couple lengths behind Dharma Initiative in the Tommy Wayne Johnson, while managing to pass a lot of horses late.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He absolutely did not enjoy getting the wet sand kicked in his face when he tried the <\/SPAN>Sand<\/SPAN><\/st1:PlaceName> <\/SPAN>Castle<\/SPAN><\/st1:PlaceType><\/st1:place> last time, and he balked when asked for his late run.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If the wet track was really the issue, then he deserves to be considered nearly at the same level as all the 6-1 horses.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>True, he hasn\u2019t quite run the 100+ figure, but if we\u2019re assuming it was the rain last time, then we should assume he would have made the figure.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/H2>

PP 9 <\/SPAN>HENRY CLAY(KY) <\/SPAN><\/STRONG>(A.P. INDY x DEPUTY MINISTER x <\/SPAN>SEATTLE<\/SPAN><\/st1:place><\/st1:City> DANCER) bred and trained by <\/SPAN>gipper8<\/SPAN><\/I> (Gipper Stables, 14%) Odds: 12-1<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/H2>

Colt makes just his fifth lifetime start today.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He was a competitive fourth in the Grade II Silver Fence early this year and then was a closing third, just behind Severus, in an overnight stakes last time.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He\u2019s a colt with a very bright future, but he needs a big and sudden improvement to win today.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Such things can happen, but it says here he need more seasoning.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/H2>

PP 10 CAT CREEPER(KY) <\/STRONG><\/SPAN>(TALE OF THE CAT x DEVIL’S BAG x GRAUSTARK) bred by legends2<\/I><\/B>, trained by champions0<\/I><\/B> (Home To Over 40 Injuries Since Week 3126, 27%)\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Odds: 6-1<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

There are some new readers who don\u2019t know Stoners, the player behind the oft-injured stables.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I, for one, enjoy sitting back and watching controversy, and Stoners, until being banned from the message board, was at the center of many controversies.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In 2005, he trained Anticosti<\/st1:place> through a series of seven graded wins in eight starts.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The streak included wins in The Fountain of Ute, The Corkscrew, and the Bluegrass Derby.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He confidently predicted the Bluegrass<\/st1:place> win and then caused a stir when he sat Anticosti<\/st1:place> out of the other two Triple Crown races.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

Stoners returns to The Corkscrew with Cat Creeper.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This co-favorite is not on the tear Anticosti<\/st1:place> was, but he\u2019s been impressive in his brief career, picking up four wins in six starts and earning the highest speed figure in the field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It\u2019s true he didn\u2019t beat much last time, but at least it was decisively over a large field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It\u2019s encouraging that he\u2019s getting faster as he goes longer, as this is longer than he\u2019s gone before.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

PP 11 WELL GROOMED(KY) <\/STRONG><\/SPAN>(SEEKING THE GOLD x BLUSHING GROOM(FR) x RIVERMAN) bred by afc3<\/I><\/B>, trained by super3<\/I><\/B> (More Evil Than The Evil Empire, 16%) Odds: 6-1<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

The third horse in the field that ran in the Tommy Wayne Johnson, this one gets the lowest odds despite finishing behind the other two.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He has two in-the-money finishes in graded stakes and two triple digit speed figures, and that explains the price.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Last out he demolished a typical overnight field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His best races have been at a half-furlong longer, and if he can pull of a win today, he should love the Bluegrass<\/st1:place> distance.<\/P>

PP 12 <\/SPAN>ROMAN PLUTONIUM(KY) <\/SPAN><\/STRONG>(ROMAN RULER x <\/SPAN>SEATTLE<\/SPAN><\/st1:place><\/st1:City> SLEW x SEARCH FOR GOLD) bred and trained by <\/SPAN>leiter<\/SPAN><\/I> (Chuckrock Conglomerate Stables, 10%) Odds: 7-1<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/H2>

With all the <\/SPAN>Derby<\/SPAN><\/st1:place><\/st1:City> lock races, you\u2019d expect the Fountain of Ute winner to already had qualified, but this 37th<\/SUP> rated colt will be on the sidelines unless he can win today.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He threw a real clunker last time in the Florida Derby.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That has to give his backers pause, but there\u2019s good news.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He ran only one other poor race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That came early in his career and he followed that with a win, so he can bounce back.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His excuse in the <\/SPAN>Florida<\/SPAN><\/st1:place><\/st1:State> may have been that he got caught up in a pace that was just too hot.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That\u2019s more good news.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The Corkscrew is setting up to have a gentle early pace.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/H2>

PP 13 <\/SPAN>SEVEN STRIKES(KY) <\/SPAN><\/STRONG>(SMART STRIKE x SEPTIEME CIEL x <\/SPAN>DANZIG<\/SPAN><\/st1:place>) bred and trained by <\/SPAN>thereason<\/SPAN><\/I> (ONEWORLD Stables, 10%) Odds: 14-1<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/H2>

It\u2019s hard to make a case for this one.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He wasn\u2019t close in a N3L allowance last time, he has one win in the last ten months, and his speed figures have been slow.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Let\u2019s try: His dam was a stakeswinner, and he gets a jockey who should get all he can out of the colt.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Barn is not afraid to place runners unconventionally.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Seven Strikes tried an open allowance race in his debut.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Sometimes unconventional pays off.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/H2>

PP 14 <\/SPAN>SMACKZAPPER(KY) <\/SPAN><\/STRONG>(GHOSTZAPPER x GONE WEST x SECRETARIAT) bred by <\/SPAN>grholding2<\/SPAN><\/I>, trained by <\/SPAN>texasace<\/SPAN><\/I> (Lone Star Racing, 27%) Odds: 16-1<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/H2>

No one is happier to see the lack of early speed in the field than Smackzapper\u2019s connections.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The outside position shouldn\u2019t be an issue for the speedster.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Never worse than second in his six dirt races, he deserves a long look.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The big question is the same one as several in here: He\u2019s not only trying a stakes for the first time, he\u2019s trying to make the jump from allowance to a Grade I stakes.<\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/STRONG><\/SPAN><\/H2>

Summary<\/SPAN>.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Disgruntled old handicappers notwithstanding, there are a couple longshots with legitimate shots.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/SPAN>Lifeless Pulp <\/SPAN>and <\/SPAN>Smackzapper<\/SPAN> appear to be threats.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Among the favorites <\/SPAN>Sahara Desert <\/SPAN>and <\/SPAN>Cat Creeper <\/SPAN>look dangerous.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/o:p><\/SPAN><\/H2><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hey, Buddy. Wanna know who’s going to win the Derby?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":432,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5764","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5764","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/432"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5764"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5764\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5764"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5764"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5764"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}