{"id":56325,"date":"2021-12-11T19:56:57","date_gmt":"2021-12-11T19:56:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=56325"},"modified":"2021-12-11T19:56:59","modified_gmt":"2021-12-11T19:56:59","slug":"sunday-12-11-graded-race-tip-sheet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=56325","title":{"rendered":"Sunday 12\/11 Graded Race Tip Sheet"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m at it again and gonna take a shot of picking winners in all of the graded stake races coming up on Sunday, 12\/11\/21.   Hey&#8230;If you do the date backwards, it is the same!  Well, that has be luck..what else could it be?   So, with my picks, I&#8217;ll be making fantasy bets with $2 win wages on each of my top picks.  Also, a $2 exacta box with all three of my picks (cost $12 each race) as well as a $2 boxed trifecta with each race (cost $12 each race) and I&#8217;ll check later to see how things went.  Here&#8217;s my selections:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>G2-The Black Dahlia, California<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1-Wind Snowden 9\/2-Frequent winner this year with 6 in 10 starts, won last three and has speeds over 110 seven times this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">6-War With a Tiger 7\/1-Has also been successful this year and has 5 wins in 8 runs, threat to top choice<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">9-Tapit&#8217;s Red Lady  8\/1-Speeds have been competitive of late, scored win with 119 in listed company in last, could find a spot on the board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>G1-Movieland Futurity, California<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">9-Broken Cielo 9\/1-Has won last two at 8.5f and early runner can build up good lead early on.  Capable of making it three straight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">8-Space Gold 7\/1-Just missed when second in last at a mile, adds a half furlong which could make him a winner this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">6-Ready for Munday 13\/1-Strong 2 stride win in G3 Cornstalk in last and could take this at nice price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>G3 Kenny Joe Stakes, Florida<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">7-Rebuked  9\/2-Charting speeds of 116 to 119 in last four outings, all graded company with pair of wins, slight edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1-Start with Fire  4\/1-Hit 120+ speeds three times this year and has 12 wins in 16 career starts, will be in the fire again!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">11-Vixologist  12\/1-Finshed second in last two listed stake races with 117 each time.  A factor if he can keep the speed up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>G2 At Night Cap, Florida<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3-Thor Thundergod  11\/1-Looked sharp when winning G2 Flying Carpet by three strides.  In peak form and hoping the form continues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">8-Agunua  10\/1-Supercloser overcame 18 length deficit in last start to win by 3.  Usually reliable to get a paycheck but can throw in a boner now and then.  Hoping this race won&#8217;t be one of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">13-Rain Runs Free  7\/1-Has won last four in allowance through G2 levels and by decent, comfortable margins.  May have more in his tank to stretch the win streak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>G1  Empire State Stayer, New York<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">6-Islette  6\/1-If you throw-out the offtrack race back in October, this filly would have four wins in a row.  Rallied from 19 back at the half in her last start (listed stake) to win by 2.  One tough gal to battle with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">11-Instagram Model  6\/1-Won her last five starts and ITM 15 of 17 dirt races, hard to discard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">12-Tap the Hand  9\/1-Won last three starts and seems to be doing better the longer she goes on the dirt, and she goes longer with this start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>G2 Greg Fox, Belgium<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">4-Shift Yourself  2\/1-Won listed in last with eye opening 118 speed.  Speed is best in this field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">5-Dragon Enforcer 5\/1-Rallied nicely in listed outing to take win with 111 speed in most recent start, need to include in exotic bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3-Redical Violence 5\/2-finished fifth in last two starts in tough G1 fields, may find this field more manageable and should perform better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>G3 High Altitude, Japan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">11-Dragon Phoenix  14\/1-Gunned a 111 listed stake win in last, returning to turf after a long stint on the dirt.  Speed is a career best and the turf may turn out to be her home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">9-Applying Force 9\/1-Disappointed in Breeders Bowl try but could recover quickly in this start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">6-Ghost at the Ball 5\/1-Likes both dirt and grass and has stake wins over both surfaces.  Always in the hunt and need to include in exotic wagers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>G3 Carp Fillies Guineas, South Africa<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">11-Firelips  5\/1-Finished second last time out in G3 with older fillies with a 110 speed, returns to her 3 year old age group and looks to be in a very good spot off that fine outing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">6-Thrilling Surge LV  7\/1-Nice win in New Zealand 1000 Dark Beers in last with 114 speed figure, likes the mile distance and figures in nicely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">12-Wall of Omens 9\/2-Consistantly on the board, hitting it 9 times in 10 starts.  Only time off board was against older horses.  Back with age group and no reason to think she won&#8217;t be on the board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>G3 Manatee Cup, New Zealand<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">9-Duwhatnow  5\/1-Hard to fault this one, has been first or second in all but his first career start.  Has won a pair of G3 races and second in G2 and G1 all in his last four appearances.  Earns top slot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3-Seayouondotherside  5\/1-In four starts of 10f or greater, has been ITM each time with pair of wins, enters off a 114 speed in most recent start that was listed stake.  Should fair well in this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">8-Chilltagous 8\/1-Won three in a row over the summer in longer routes before cooling off for the fall.  It&#8217;s now winter time and can fire up again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>G3 Natural Spring, Thailand<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">12-One Slick Tarton  11\/1-Moves up to graded level after four nice outings in listed stake group where she ran 6 to 6.5 furlongs.  She gains some distance which should be beneficial with her late run style.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">13-La Zarrapastrosa 12\/1-Back of the field runner ran 113 speed in last, taking win by over a length after trailing by 13.  Speed may be distorted a bit as race was 7.5furlongs which generally have inflated speeds.  Still, she will be charging late and could bring back a nice exotic payout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2-Neglige  10\/1-Her last three wins have all been at 7f distance and she&#8217;s entered back into this distance.  Ran 109 speed in last (7f distance) and came from back side of field to earn the win.  Maybe an underplay ready to payout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m at it again and gonna take a shot of picking winners in all of the graded stake races coming<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":363,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56325","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/363"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=56325"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56325\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56338,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56325\/revisions\/56338"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=56325"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=56325"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=56325"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}