{"id":5618,"date":"2008-03-15T05:49:25","date_gmt":"2008-03-15T05:49:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=5618"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=5618","title":{"rendered":"Kinlochleven narrowly favored in Winchester Cap"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional\/\/EN\"\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/html4\/loose.dtd\"><html><head><title>Untitled Document<\/title><meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=iso-8859-1\"><\/head><body><\/p>\n<p>This weekend the New York track offers a special treat to fans of the miler  division. Horses 3 years and older were invited from around the globe to participate  in the tenth running of the <strong>G3 Winchester Cap<\/strong>. Run for $150k  and a chance to hang onto the  silver Winchester Cup for a year, trainers come  from far and wide for a chance at adding this race to their charges&#8217; list of  victories. Some big names have shown up over the years. Hall Of Famer and Eclipse  winner<strong> Enough Knock<\/strong> valiantly led the field in 1999 only to  fall victim to a late charge from <strong>Opal Slew<\/strong>. Hall Of Famer  <strong>Duke Ali<\/strong> picked up a big win on the lead in 2002. The most  notable name form the last few years might just be <strong>Mr.Eko<\/strong>,  the colt who took on elders as an early 3yo and still managed to pull off a  huge third-place in 2007, but who couldn&#8217;t manage to beat <strong>Zygote<\/strong> asthe elder horse set a new stakes record in 1:33.4.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The morning line favorite at 4-1 is <em>Monksfield&#8217;s<\/em> <strong>Kinlochleven<\/strong>.  The trainer has had some really nice horses over the years, most notably the  Eclipse-winning filly Armed With Money. Kinlochleven is a 5yo son of Forty  Niner, and a darn speedy horse. He&#8217;s done most of his damage sprinting, and  in fact has yet to win going a mile or longer. Even so, he&#8217;s been right up  there several times routing. Two back he ran fourth in the 8f Diplomat Way  by just 2 lengths, last September in a mile listed stake finished second. Oddly,  despite a pedigree supporting a bit more distance, he&#8217;s yet to go longer than  8.5f. Then again, when you have a horse run a 118SP as Kinlochleven did last  out at 7f, or 120 as he did in November at 7.5f, you are understandably hesitant  to rock the speedboat. <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>Wabred1&#8217;s<\/em> <strong>Northern Bullet<\/strong> goes off as the 5-1 co-second  betting choice. The 4yo Red Bullet colt is no stranger to huge speed figures,  as evidenced by the 118SP he popped last out in winning the 8.5f G3 Big A Handicap.  Snappa&#8217;s star colt is insanely good at 8.5f, but doesn&#8217;t have a ton of miling  experience, and what he has has amounted to only an allowance win. Can he successfully  shorten up to a mile against the super-speed of Kinlochleven as that colt stretches  out? Will it leave the race wide open for a more lightly-regarded entrant?  If the track had been muddy I&#8217;d love Bullet&#8217;s chances, but on a fast track  I just don&#8217;t think he can shorten up to a flat mile with success. <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Also at 5-1 is the 4yo Hennessy colt <strong>Wooden Minister<\/strong>. He&#8217;s  a G1 winner at 8 panels, despite a pretty short racing career. Just two ticks  off the stakes record, the Minister took hope the prize in the Sterile Mile  two back, posting a great 115SP. Trainer <em>Pogs1<\/em> (aka <em>Pogook<\/em>)  had to be disappointed when the colt finished off the board for the first time  ever last time out in the G1 Delaware Mile, but given the horse is now returning  after an 11-week break, it appears he may have injured. Off such a long vacation  it&#8217;s tough to love him here, but this is one gutsy horse. Still, I&#8217;ll give  him better odds in his next start.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>Crown&#8217;s<\/em> <strong>Atlantis King <\/strong>is one of two at 8-1. Trained  by <em>Tulloch<\/em>, the 4yo son of Dixieland Band backs up to a mile for the  first time in almost a year. He&#8217;s got a great 2:1-1-0 record at 8f, but only  in maiden company. Back to back strong races at 85 in his last two starts have  to have the trainer thinking he&#8217;s got a potential star in the King, but will  he live up to the promise? Have to love his ability to take the lead or settle  back as needed, but he&#8217;s not making his graded debut a particularly easy one,  and I&#8217;d want to see him successfully take a mile stake before trying the big  boys. Still, if you&#8217;ve got to try two big changes at once, this isn&#8217;t a horrible  place for it to happen. <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Disco Ball<\/strong> is the second 8-1 horse. He&#8217;s trained by <em>Beefcake2<\/em>,  and at the ripe old age of 5 the Glitterman son doesn&#8217;t seem quite ready to  head off for retirement. Sure, the three straight losses hurt, but hey, just  in December he popped a pair of 110+ speed figures. Disco has never had a ton  of luck in graded company, his best finish a second in a 7.5f G3 last May,  but here&#8217;s why I like the horse anyway: He hasn&#8217;t gone two turns in almost  a year, but when he did he was rocking along hitting the board in all of his  last four routes. He&#8217;ll need to break sharply to have a prayer, but if he&#8217;s  within a length at the first call, he&#8217;s got a good shot.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>Grandslam&#8217;s<\/em> <strong>The Lake Effect<\/strong> is the first of our  9-1 trio. He&#8217;s a 5yo son of Salt Lake still searching for his first graded  win after five tries. Despite the relatively poor record in big stuff, he&#8217;s  no slouch on the track. Indeed, a pair of mile listed wins, plus a couple more  at 8.5f, says this is a good horse just looking for his breakthrough. Like  Northern Bullet, Lake is much more consistent on a wet track, but he&#8217;s still  darn good on fast. The string of 105+ figures at the 7.5-8.5f range prove that.  His best SPs are a good 10 points below the best of his peers, but he&#8217;s still  more than fast enough to win here if he gets a bit of racing luck.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s been a while since I last saw a <em>Robscoobi<\/em> horse in a dirt route  grade. Nice to see <strong>Skeleton Keymaker<\/strong> in representing the <em>Scoobzilla<\/em> stable.  The 5yo son of Kingmambo just hit a 108SP in an 8.5f allowance, which might  be jut the tightener he needed for a successful return to grades. The Keymaker&#8217;s  best graded finish (in three tries) was a second in the 8.5f Ecliptic last  May. A pair of nice mile wins since and the old boy still looks good. It helps  that he&#8217;s making career start #25 here; over-raced the Keymaker is not. He  needs to break on the lead or right up close, and stay there, to have a real  chance.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>Stellar4&#8217;s<\/em> <strong>Ancestral Vision <\/strong>is the final 9-1 shot. Trained  by <em>Deadinthelane<\/em>,  the 4yo Smarty Jones colt comes back to a mile after three decent but less  than superb 8.5f efforts. Gotta love the horse at a mile where&#8217;s he&#8217;s undefeated  in two tries. The lifetime high 113SP (four starts ago) says Vision  is the real deal at a flat mile. He&#8217;s tried grades 3 times at 8.5-9f, running  sixth or worse every time, but should find more success shortening up. <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>Bhoffman&#8217;s<\/em> 4yo Smart Strike colt <strong>Smart Buck<\/strong> goes  off at 10-1. He&#8217;s making his second start in graded company; the first was  a not-so-good seventh in the 8.5f Fus Gonner last April. With just one other  stake behind him (an eighth two back at 8.5) the colt has a lot of questions  to answer. However, he&#8217;s even putting up 100+ SPs in seven of his last 8 starts,  and has a high SP of 112 earned in open allowance company. If he can put up  a placing, he&#8217;ll merit a stronger look next time out.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0 <\/p>\n<p><em>Sdmf9<\/em> (aka <em>Zewango<\/em>) enters the 16-1 <strong>Thick    and Thin<\/strong>. The  Forty Niner 4yo managed a graded placing as a juvenile, then a sixth and fourth  as a 3yo in Derby preps. In the last year he&#8217;s notched a pair of allowance  wins but nothing earth-shattering. However, the much-improved SPs (six 103+  in last 8 starts) are more than good enough to merit another graded try. I  suspect he&#8217;ll close well but run out of room at a mile, yet this could still  prove a solid setup for an 8.5-9f try next out. <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This time last year <strong>Henianlauch<\/strong> was hot on the Derby trail.  Trainer <em>Crandyiv<\/em>  successfully pulled longer distances out of his  Hennessy colt, picking up a third in the G1 Bluegrass. It was pretty clear  the colt needed to stay a bit shorter, however, and backed up to the mile range  he&#8217;s found a bit of success in the last year. A third in a mile G3 and a win  against NWRC company in the annual residency championship at a mile were highlights.  With just four victories the colt has been short on wins, but he has a sneaky  habit of outrunning his odds, which are 31-1 here. Could be due for an extended  break after SPs have begun to taper off. Then again, if he can break fast and  stay out front early, as he hasn&#8217;t been allowed to do of late, that might be  the ticket to victory.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>Delpendude<\/em> (aka <em>Topicount<\/em>) enters the 41-1 <strong>Golden    King<\/strong>.  With just three wins from 12 starts, this 4yo Forty Niner colt is far from  a household name. However, he&#8217;s got a master trainer, and the pair of recent    mile wins this year in allowance company make the step up a logical one.    Even if that step skips right over the usual listed tryout. He likes to sit    just behind the lead, but his faster and more experienced peers will probably    take that spot unless the King improves mightily. <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The final entrant at 98-1 is <strong>Cat Charm Ted<\/strong>. If you wonder  why he&#8217;s at such long odds, a quick glance at his birth certificate tells the  story. The Silver Charm colt is a mere 3yo, taking on the big boys like Mr.Eko  did last year but without the depth of  success Mr.Eko brought  to the race. While it&#8217;s rather difficult to support a youngster against his  more experiences elders, one must still respect Ted for taking the leap. The  Charm has two wins from eight starts, one at 5.5f and one at 9f. Top SP of  95 would be competitive against his own age group, but it&#8217;s a whopping 25 points  below the best of this crowd. <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Kinlochleven is the clear class, and it&#8217;s hard to pick against him. Despite  being so heavily supported by the bettors, there are too many questions about  Northern Bullet and Wooden Minister for me to want to risk wagering on them.  Ancestral Vision intrigues me as a horse with a lot of upside. The Lake Effect  doesn&#8217;t have the speed of the favored horses, but he does have the rail post  and a great last start. For some value, I&#8217;ll go with a <strong>Kinlochleven<\/strong>\/<strong>Ancestral  Vision<\/strong>\/<strong>The Lake Effect <\/strong>ticket. <\/p>\n<p><\/body><\/html><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Milers take center stage in New York feature <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5618","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5618","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5618"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5618\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5618"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5618"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5618"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}