This week\u2019s marquee race in Virginia is the fourth annual running of the Roan Around Savage Stakes. One of the longest running name stakes in Virginia, it invites all horses four years and older to run fourteen furlongs over firm turf, to grab a piece of the $45000 purse. Unusual for a stakes like this one, fourteen of the fifteen entrants from the past three years are still active. Historically, the race tends to favor a slower pace, with the winners in the first two runnings both running sub 90 speeds. Last year\u2019s winner, Invierno, <\/b>set the benchmark, running a 95.2 speed off a beautiful mid pack close in the victory. This year\u2019s event draws a field of six, including four of the top 200 divisionally ranked turf marthoners. They range in age from four to six, and in experience from multiple stakes winners to horses seeking their first taste of stakes glory. This one should offer another slow paced race, at least in the front half, with no real breakout speed to set the pace early. Oddsmakers have a definite favorite weighing in at 9\/5 odds. Four of the remaining five entries are sandwiched between 2\/1 and 6\/1 on the morning line, with a 13\/1 longshot to spice things up. If the favorite comes through here, we could still see some modest payouts at the betting windows, and if he gets beat, which is never out of the question in a race this long, we could see some handsome payouts in the exotics.<\/p>\n
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PP 1) Elusive Riley(KY)<\/b> Sired by Elusive Quality, Trained by okdavid196. Elusive Riley(KY) is a four year old colt, entering his twenty third start here as the oddsmakers\u2019 pick to win this one. He carries a divisional ranking of 98, behind three prior stakes victories, the most recent coming in early December last year. Over the course of his last ten starts, he has put together a record of 5-0-2-0-1, with six 100+ speed figures, capped by a 108.8 in his last stakes win. His last race was an open allowance run at twelve furlongs on a tough Vermont track, where he took a field of closers wire to wire to win by four and a half lengths, posting one of his best career speeds to date. He spent his two year old season racing on dirt, but after breaking his maiden in his first start as a three year old, he hit a wall, and the switch to turf seemed to provide an answer, seeing him run to top three finishes in eight of his next ten starts. He has posted 100+ speeds at distances from eight to twelve furlongs, and when raceing at twelve or longer, he has three wins and a show in four tries. With the exception of a sterling speed number in his last though, the best he has posted at twelve and beyond has been a 95, and his only prior run at this distance resulted in athird pace in a field of five. He breaks at a midpack closers pace, and his close has been reasonably consistent. Outside of graded level, he has won his last five starts. He loves this kind of field, with no real breakout speed to expend early energy keeping up with, leaving plenty for the second half. He has been running some of the highest consistent speeds in this field, but he will have a challenge from some of runners with more experience at this fourteen plus furlong distance.<\/p>\n
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PP 2) Lemon Lily Affair<\/b> Sired by Lemon Drop Kid, Trained by stonybrook. Lemon Lily Affair is a five year old horse, taking the gate in career start thirty six in this race. He has three prior stakes wins in his career, posting his latest in late July last year. His last ten starts have seen him run to a 2-0-1-2-2 record, with a top speed of 100.6 in his stakes win last year. His last start was a thirteen furlong effort on an off track in Eastern Kentucky, where he finished a fast fading fourth in a field of fourteen. His two year old season was an even split between dirt and turf, and his speeds showed that turf was where he wanted to be, and he has not switched back since late in his two year old season. He has nine starts at twelve furlongs and longer, resulting in four top three finishes, but three of those starts were on off tracks, which he doesn\u2019t appear to relish. He prefers a stalkers pace, but with only a couple of exceptions, he hasn\u2019t been able to maintain any kind of striking distance over his last several starts. The setup doesn\u2019t favor him here, with nothing in front of him to stalk, and the last time he found himself in a situation like this, he faded terribly down the stretch after opening up a big first half lead. He hasn\u2019t come within ten lengths of a win since his stakes victory last July, and that makes it hard to recommend him here. He will need a serious return to form to be a threat. <\/p>\n
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PP 3) Dehere The Band(KY)<\/b> Sired by Dehere, Trained by lado3. Dehere The Band(KY) is a four year old colt, seeing action in his twenty thrid career start. He steps straight out of the claiming ranks into stakes competition, and in his second start at this level he is still seeking his first win. He has put up a record of 1-0-0-1-1 in his last ten, with a best speed figure of 93.8 posted in a losing effort late last September. His last race was a C4L run at eleven furlongs in Eastern Kentucky, where he bested a field of eight by a length and a half. Two of three career dirt starts came late last year, and his speeds are comparable on both surfaces, but turf is where he has been collecting his paychecks. This will be his longest run to date by a full two furlongs. In that twelve furlong effort, he finished a long out fourth in a field of eight in allowance competition. He usually likes to start from midpack, but he seems to be a holder rather than a closer, not picking up much ground in the second half, but also not seeming to lose much in his last several starts. That makes this type of pace setup the perfect venue for him. The only real problem is, that thus far, he hasn\u2019t shown the kind of speed he will need to successfully take advantage of it, especially in a race this long. That justifies his longshot odds in this race.<\/p>\n
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PP 4) Lame Duck(GB)<\/b> Sired by Amutalwakel(GB), Trained by cylla2222. Lame Duck(GB) is a four year old colt, facing start number twenty three in this race. This former high level claimer has been on fire as of late, grabbing his third straight win and first career stakes victory last time out and looking for more. He carries a 7-2-0-1-0 record out of his last ten starts, a combination of starter allowance, high level allowance and a stakes run, with four 100+ speed figures, culminating in a career best 107.0 in his last race. That start was a stakes race at this distance in Nevada, where he soundly defeated a field of ten by three and a quarter off a beautiful second half close. He has never been off turf in his career, and with eighteen top three finishes in twenty two starts across all levels of competition, there has never been anything to justifiy a switch. He has really blossomed as his trainer has stretched him out to longer distances, and he is undefeated in three starts beyond twelve furlongs, two upper level allowances and a stakes race. He is a midpack to deep closer, and with the exception of one falter late last September, his close has been spot on. He is the hottest horse in this field, and he should have a great setup for his running style here. His speeds have been cycling up and down over his last several starts, but even that has not brought him below the 100 mark in his last four starts. That should be plenty to win this one, and he gets my nod here.<\/p>\n
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PP 5) Goveisawakiwarrior<\/b> Sired by Carson City, Trained by quest2fame. Goveisawakiwarrior is the old man of this field at six years old, but he is relatively lightly raced, making only his twenty fourth career start here. He has two previous stakes wins, coming back to back early in the 2006 season. This will be his first run since December of 2006, coming into this one after a long stint in the barn. His last ten starts garnered him a record of 3-0-1-0-3, with a top speed number of 102.8 earned in his last start. That race was an A1t right here in Virginia on the last day of racing in 2006, where he came from nowhere in an eight furlong race to best a field of eleven by nearly two lengths. His career has been an even split between dirt and turf, and he has wins on both surfaces, though he has displayed a decided speed edge on turf. This will be only his second try at twelve furlongs and beyond, and his longest by two furlongs. His race at twelve furlongs on a yielding track provided him with one of two career stakes victories. He is a pure deep closer, and in general his close has been consistent, but more often than not, it has not been able to dig him out of some deep second half holes. His last start was his career best, but it also came in a much shorter race. The pace here means that he shouldn\u2019t find himself out quite so deep at the half, which works to his advantage. The long idle period is a big question mark however, and his performance here will all depend on whether he can find his legs after not having faced competition in fourteen months.<\/p>\n
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PP 6) Pedro Extremist<\/b> Sired by Sakhee, Trained by rx7. Pedro Extremist is a five year old horse, taking the gate for his thrity fourth career start here. He boasts five career stakes wins and a number 38 divisional ranking as he enters this start. His last ten have been a mixed bag, resulting in a 4-3-0-0-0 record, with a top speed of 107.9 earned in a stakes victory at this distance late last September. His last start was an open allowance at this distance at Epsom, where he finished second in a field of eight by a scant half length. After showing no spark at all on dirt in his first two starts as a two year old, the move to turf set his career on the right track, with three top three finishes in his next nine, and he has never looked back. He has made his name as a marathon specialist, with twelve top three finishes in eighteen starts at twelve furlongs and beyond. He plays a stalker\u2019s role, and over his last several starts it has been a real hit or miss proposition. After stringing together four straight stakes victories in impressive fashion last fall, he stepped into a fateful Grade I clash, and it seemed to take the wind out of his sails, and he failed to come remotely close in his next two starts. He did show some life in his last outing though, and the move back to North America could also be a plus for him. He could very well have a piece of the early lead here, and has the potential to open up a decent cushion with plenty left for the second half. If he can continue the return to form he showed in his last he can be a threat here.<\/p>\n
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Six horses take up the challenge<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":472,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews","category-reviews","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/472"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5517"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5517\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}