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This\nweekend sees a continuation of the 3yo classic racing with the Italian Derby.\nDerbies, Oaks and 1000\/2000 Guineas are aplenty from April to July and there is\nan elite field assemble for this year\u2019s edition of the Italian Derby.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Italian\nDerby, held in Capanelle in early May each year is a Group 2 event however the Derbyfever\nversion carries Group 1 status due to the higher prestige of winning a\nsimulated Group 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We have a field of 14 for this year\u2019s event, only 3 geldings and interestingly no fillies. 11 colts will do battle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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- Outback Earl<\/strong> (War Front x AP Indy x Dynaformer) is a superbly bred colt trained by Vyz <\/em>out of the Outback7 <\/em>barn. 9:3-4-1<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
A handy allrounder showing ability on both dirt\nand turf the colt only raced on the former for his 2yo campaign and while he\ndidn\u2019t set the world alight in 2020 he was far from disgraced. A training\nmasterstroke saw a surface switch to turf for his 3yo racing campaign and it\nyielded instant results with 3 starts all at 8.5f for 2 wins and a second.\nWhile he hasn\u2019t stepped beyond 8.5f as yet his last start suggested he is now\nlooking for more ground. Difficult to tell whether he will see out the 11f\nhowever the bookies have him at 6\/1 and believe the Earl to be a very decent\nchance here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary: Well bred colt loves the turf, distance the query.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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2. The Mark Of Nuka <\/strong>(English Channel x Dawn Approach x Montjeu) is an English Classic bred colt out of the Group 1 winning mare The Mark Of Dawn. 5: 3-0-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trained by leading trainer Lenny<\/em> out of\nhis thethumb07barn this colt looks the real deal and don\u2019t be fooled by the\nopening odds of 11\/1. I expect the punters to come for him late. Bred to get\nthe 11f every day of the week, The Mark Of Nuka<\/strong> has been getting better\nand better with each outing over further ground. When extended to 9.5f last\ntime out in ALW3L company he showed an impressive turn of foot late to pull\naway by 3.5L. This win made it 3 in a row and he will look to eat up the extra\n1.5f and be extremely hard to hold out. Lenny\u2019s horses are never far away in\nthe big races and I expect the same here. Interestingly the dam is from a Group\n3 winner herself and has already produced a Group 2 winner from only 4 foals\nand 3 to race. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary: Will run out the 11f and success runs in the family.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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3. All Roads <\/strong>(Snitzel x Galileo x AP Indy) is out of derbyfever Hall Of Famer My Role Model and is already a Group 1 winner himself. 9:4-2-0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trained by astute horseperson Eminc, <\/em>All\nRoads was nothing short of super last start taking out the Japanese 2000\nguineas by 3L running a 109 speed rating in the process. Impeccably bred by\nboom Australian stallion Snitzel, All Roads should be shorter than the opening\nquote of 6\/1. By my industry insider he is rated closer to 2\/1 and even though\nhe is by a sprinting influence stallion it would be expected with the back end\nand his dam that 11f will be well within his liking. One further comment is\nEminc only has a small training operation by sim standards and seems to target\nquality over quantity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary: Smart horse, smart trainer big threat.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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4. Diagram Of Truth <\/strong>(Galileo x Dubawi x Dansili) is regally bred out of stakes winning mare Wiring Diagram, this is her first foal. 3:1-0-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trained by fastnfirm <\/em>the one pattern\nthat is emerging here is that if you want to have a horse in a group 1 race you\nhave to be able to rub shoulders with the big boys (& gals). Fastnfirm is a\nsim legend and while Diagram of Truth hails out of the 2wide barn it only takes\na little deeper digging to see the brains behind the operation. This is a\nspecial horse. He ran super last start to post a 97 when stretched out to 9.5f\nand being by Galileo out of Dubawi mare\nhe will be wanting every single bit of the 11f come Saturday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary: Don\u2019t underestimate based on maiden winner only. This colt is the real deal.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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5. Kepler Flabb <\/strong>(Oasis Dream x Kingmambo x AP Indy) is out of the mare Kepler Ettan who though only an allowance winner herself has been very productive in the breeding barn producing a Group 3 winner in 2013 as well as several stakes quality horses. 7:3-2-0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trained by Marre\n<\/em>out of the Marre1 barn, Kepler Flabb is another getting better with ground\nand it\u2019s easy to see why he has been sent to Italy for a chance at the big one\nhere. So far he has been steadily taken through his grades and well educated\nwith a solid foundation to platform from. While he hasn\u2019t been tested at stakes\nor graded level as yet he has done everything right and now stands at 3 wins\nfrom 7 career outings. After the debut in July 2020 Marre must have been\ntempted to send the \u2018Flabb\u2019 as he is affectionately known straight into the\nauction, but since then he has not looked back. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary: Well grounded coming through the grades, would have to be his dam\u2019s best to win this.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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6. Decorated In Gold <\/strong>(Decorated Knight x Stay Gold x Kingmambo) is another of our equal 6\/1 favourites for the race and hails from the barns of Mrxrayz. <\/em>6:4-2-0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For those that hadn\u2019t noticed, Decorated Knight\nhas been surging up the 2020 sire rankings and this colt is one of the main\nreasons for that. Last start he weas very impressive pulling away over 9.5f by\n3.25L to make it a hattrick of wins. He has taken MrXrays on an exciting ride\nin his short career to date never finishing worse than 2nd<\/sup> and again\nlike others here getting better with distance. Already a stakeswinner and based\non a successful game he-mare this colt looks another great chance in Capanelle<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary: Class edge MrX may just have the X factor here<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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7. Kivotal <\/strong>(Zelzal x Pivotal x Danzig) is a stakeswinner at 6.5f rated 22\/1 here. 12:2-2-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trained by Lightng99<\/em> out of the\nlightng101 barn this colt had 10 2yo race starts for an impressive stakes win\nas previously mentioned and narrowly missed a place by 0.5L in the Group 3 The\nCyborg in July. There has been 2 attempts at a mile the first being beaten by\n9L in a G3 last August and the 2nd<\/sup> as a lead up the derby in March\nthis year beaten 8.25L. On the back of exposed form I couldn\u2019t see Kivotal\nstaying the 11f but I\u2019m not the trainer and perhaps Lightng99 has something up his\nsleeve for the big dance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary: Won\u2019t get the journey but has some upside at shorter trips ahead <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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8. Atomic Sushi <\/strong>(Siyouni x Fastnet Rock x Invincible Spirit) is stakeswinning colt out of the multiple stakeswinning mare Rockbone Lass. He is her first foal. 9:4-1-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trained by Deyoto, <\/em>head trainer of\nChampion Lodge and all round good guy this colt exploded last start jumping 12\nspeed ratings when stepping out to 9f for the first time. The win was in stakes\ncompany and although only a narrow winner, Atomic Sushi showed a turn of foot\nfrom the back that many of the others here haven\u2019t displayed to this point in\ntheir career to reel in the field. The big query here is the trip, from a\nsprinting mare by a sprinting influence sire in Siyouni it would seem unlikely\nthis colt will be able to get the 11f. Having said this the lead up run was\nimpressive out in trip so the Sushi remains a mystery element in the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary: Will be closing hard if he can run the journey<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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9. Woette\u2019s City <\/strong>(Masar x Street Cry X Deputy Minister) is the 2nd<\/sup> foal from an allowance winning mare. The first foal was retired early due to unforeseen circumstances. 4:1-2-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Lightly raced this colt appears on paper to be\na lot handier than the first foal and must be given some serious consideration\nhere. Last start performance stagnation at 9.5f after an impressive run\nbeforehand at the same trip would give every indication we are looking at a\nhorse crying out for more ground. Zeco <\/em>is the brains behind this colt\nand hails from the Universal Racing Club and has had a solid start to the 2021\nracing season thus far. Interesting to see the booking of champion jockey S L\nLedwith here who must have a degree of confidence in his mount to take the reigns\nhere, I feel the 17\/1 is way overs and there will be some serious money coming\nfor this colt who is in with a real live chance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary: Something brewing here. Possibly a boilover at odds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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10. Pricing To Sell <\/strong>(Win Variation x Mastercraftsman x Sadler\u2019s Wells) is our most seasoned campaigner of the field having had 14 starts and goes around equal favourite 6\/1. 14:4-4-4<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trained by thebigshow <\/em>we have another\nsim heavyweight behind the driver\u2019s seat, a most respected Derbyfever trainer.\nThis gelding can race handy on both dirt and turf and has had a fair go at both\nin his short career. The recent 2 starts have both been excellent and on turf\nwhich is a good read for this, particularly the stake win 2 starts back at\n9.5f. Even though there was an improved speed figure last time out at 10f I\u2019m\nfeeling the run just lacked a little in the last half furlong and the 11f may\nbe a bit above what Pricing To Sell will be comfortable with here. Feel like\nthere are many wins to come for this boy but best distance is likely a little\nshort than the Derby trip has an offer. BigShow will be hoping otherwise and\nwho is to doubt him as I said earlier we have a highly respected trainer at the\nwheel and perhaps he\u2019 saving his best run for the big one in Capanelle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary: Hard to fault recent form but the trip may be a slight concern<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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11. AA Zabjoh <\/strong>(Johannesburg x Zabeel x Curlin) is an interesting breeding mix of both speed and staying influences as well as dirt and turf influences. 8:3-3-0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Really interesting runner and as mentioned\nabove is a really interesting blend of genetics. New Zealand champion sire Zabeel\nat dam sire can never be underestimated in producing horses with staying ability\non turf particularly out to 12f. Seems to have stagnated beyond a mile and\nalthough good the last 2 runs the 12th<\/sup> by 18L in March this year at\n10.5f is a real concern for this race. Trained by derbyking <\/em>out of the\narmadalearms barn and hailing from the New Zealand Racing club this colt will\nhave to run a career best race to be competitive with some of the others in\nthis field. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary: Nice colt with a bright future but trip is a concern on exposed form<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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12. Chando Palace <\/strong>(Churchill x Unbridled\u2019s Song x Danehill) is from the Group 2 winning mare Palace of Truth. 8:3-2-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In steps the big guns, none other than Dan the\nMan Given.<\/em> If Lenny is trying to pinch a Derby with a colt like The Mark\nOf Nuka then you can be guaranteed his great mate and long time rival Given won\u2019t\nbe far away in trying to spoil the party. Chando Palace looks to be the real\ndeal too, placing 2nd<\/sup> in a Group 2 over 10.5 furlongs last start takes\nthe guessing game away and is a considerable advantage to Given as compared\nwith several trainers here in knowing that his horse will be highly likely to\nget the 11f trip. Last start was a career best speed rating and the extra 0.5\nfurlong would not be thought to be of any concern. Churchill while predominantly\na speed influence, is going super in his limited time at simulated stud and the\nmare was a solid 9-10f horse herself. Look for him to be up on the pace, possibly\neven leading and will look to be the winner at some stage of the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary: Cannot underestimate this trainer. Will he be strong enough late?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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13. Financially Stable <\/strong>(American Pharoah x War Front x Bernadini) is based on the Group 3 winning dirt horse Roskilde Cathedral. 10:1-2-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of us would like to be financially stable\nand perhaps trainer atthewire <\/em>will be if his colt can prevail here. Our\nlongshot of the field at 26\/1 this son of American Pharoah has just broken his\nmaiden in his final lead up race for the Derby. While the times aren\u2019t\nparticularly fast, it is of note that the best performances have been\nstretching out in trip which is a key indicator for a race like a Derby. There\nis some natural improvement unfolding with maturity and time as well as a nice progression\nwith distance however Financially Stable will need to improve sharply to be\ncompetitive in this grade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary: Leading trainer though may just lack a class edge here at Group 1 level.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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14. Street Cry Never <\/strong>(No Nay Never x Street Cry x AP Indy) is a brown gelding by boom sire No Nay Never. 8:1-0-3<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Beerkeg <\/em>trains this gelding out of his beerbong <\/em>barn\nand no doubt he would have been knocking the caps off the brews when this son\nof No Nay Never ran 3rd<\/sup> in the Group 2 Knick Knack juvenile in\nOctober of his 2yo season. A flat 2 runs have since followed at 8.5f on turf\nand Beerkeg looks to have sent this boy to the paddock for a freshen up prior\nto this event. Interesting lead up for Derby\nwhere miles in the legs may be of benefit but Street Cry Never may just do his\nbest work fresh. Feel like this gelding may go to another level back in trip\nbetween 6.5f and 7.5f where there has already been an impressive win. The\nlonger trip to 11f is certainly a concern but I\u2019ll be the first to arrive at\nbeerbong barn if this gelding can salute to enjoy a few frothies with the\ntrainer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary: If the trainer was sober when doing the race entry this could be one hell of a party.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Good luck to all runners, this promises to be a great race. Like all Derbies being able to stay the journey will be a key factor with the winner to be decided on training preparation and class when it counts. This looks to be a very open race with several stars of the future predicted to come out of it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Group 1 $750,000 11f turf This weekend sees a continuation of the 3yo classic racing with the Italian Derby. Derbies,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":139,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54845","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54845","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/139"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=54845"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54845\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":54852,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54845\/revisions\/54852"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=54845"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=54845"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=54845"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}