For the first time in recent memory, sim-land has just one graded race, Yes, just one. Nothing on turf, nothing for 3yos, no sprints, no marathons, no miles, just one little G3 over in Ireland. It’s a 10f race on the main track for 4yos only. While fillies could have entered, only boys showed up for the race. And only ten of them. Ten, in the only graded race in the entire sim this week.<\/p>\n
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So who chose to ship to Ireland for the Warsaw Classic? <\/p>\n
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The narrow favorite at 4-1 is Triple A Prayer<\/strong>. Pazbarn’s<\/em> Aldebaran colt holds a super 33% win rate, enviable for a horse that has been competing at the highest levels for several months. He’s got a pair of graded wins to his credit, the G2 Mountainous versus his own age and the G1 Sim World Cup Nine versus elders. His only 10f try wasn’t a hot one, but the sixth place in the Breeders Bowl Classic was still a darn good effort in what turned out to be a record-setting race. In the three races since, he’s been experiencing fifth-itis, so an easier race can’t hurt the colt as he tries 10f again. The biggest concern, IMO, is that he’s coming back in after a tough race two weeks ago. Still, this is one tough, and fast, horse. <\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Arasad<\/strong> is the first of four at 5-1. Arameo’s<\/em> Sadler’s Wells colt drew the rail post. He just took a nice listed stake at 8.5 three weeks ago, but he’s stepping up in both company and class here. Arasad’s only taken to triple-digit speed figures in the last four starts, but each start has been a solid one. It makes sense to test the graded waters in this most protected of graded starts. Pedigree says 10f should be ok, but when a horse hasn’t won beyond 8.5, it does make you wonder.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Also at 5-1 is End Of The Bench<\/strong>. The Benchmark colt popped a 112 two back in a allowance, albeit on a wet track. The number was legit, however, as evidenced by the 109 he earned two weeks ago in winning a 10.5 stake three weeks ago. Only tried a grade once, and that was a G3 at 12f back in mid-2007. It’s nice to see Greyghost’s<\/em> colt trying the big boys again. Likes to come from well back even smaller fields, may find himself having too pass too many horses late in the race.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The third 5-1 entry is Lightwork<\/strong>, owned by the race sponsor, Simsters4<\/em>. The North Light colt spent his first ten starts on the grass, winning four but finding no real stakes success. Imagine the trainer’s surprise, then, when a trip at 10 on the main track resulted in a 112SP. And when a second earned a 101. And when a third dirt race, this time at 13 against elders, turned up a 3+ length win for a 115, it was obvious that the colt was begging for a real chance to show off. Must be considered a strong possibility here. He’s got lightning fast speed on the front end, and while he’s not going to get cushy ten-length leads like he has in the past, he’s still the class of the field. <\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The time last year the 5-1 Be Auror Song<\/strong> was pulling off some easy stakes scores. He did pretty well through spring, racking up a couple of graded wins at 9f, but has been a non-winner since May. After the World Cup, where he finished second behind Triple A Prayer, many thought he was returning to form, but in the four races since his best finish was a third in a Minnesota restricted stake. Ten furlongs seems too long, but Auror’s Unbridled Song colt has a sneaky way of showing up when you least expect it. <\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Agnelo’s<\/strong> our first of two 6-1 entrants. He’s coming off four straight wins including a pair of grads. Perfect for this race, right? Maybe, maybe not. Voltereta’s<\/em> Theatrical colt won a maiden at a mile, but the other four wins have been at 13f or longer. Can he back up to 10 successfully? Perhaps. He’s gone 10 once before, and finished second, though that was on a wet track six months ago. Top SP of 112 puts him among the best of this age group.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Mook<\/em> has the other 6-1 entrant, Non Negative<\/strong>. The A.P. Indy colt is also riding a four-race win-streak, though his best in those were a pair of listed wins. Still, both earned 110+ SPs, and one was at a flat 10f, making this a horse to be reckoned with. He’s already a graded winner, with the mile G3 Pea Patch earned way back in 2006. I like that he was so lightly raced as a 3yo, offering a competitive advantage against many of his peers. <\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The 9-1 horse, Angels Fall<\/strong>, is my own entry out of the Bigmoose3<\/em> barn. He’s an Empire Maker with only 3 wins in 17 starts, and zero stakes wins, but yet I still have hopes. Being stakes-placed twice versus elders last year did not hurt. And that lovely 8 1\/2 length allowance win at 10f last out was super-fun to watch. Not sure how good he really is, guess I’ll find out.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n At 19-1 is A.P. Pleasure<\/strong>. The R C Indy Go colt might have better odds had he not thrown a clunker of a 57SP last out in losing by a distance in the 10f allowance. Prior to that he lost by 15 in a G3 Queen of the County at 9.5f. Kindone2’s<\/em> colt is actually stakes-placed three times, albeit most recently last July. His top SP of 107 was earned at 10f, which suggests he might do well here, but his best placings all came at shorter distances. Tried graded company twice and could not end better than eighth. <\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The field longshot at 99-1 must have been either an entry error or an “i really really hope this field falls out” prayer. Model J<\/strong> was actually pretty decent in the claiming ranks, but since being claimed by trainer 12047<\/em> the River Keen colt has been struggling mightily in stakes company. Six of his last seven starts have been lost by 30 or more lengths. Each. Not only does the horse prefer turf, he really does a lot better at no more than a mile. Here to fill out the field only. <\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n So who’s our winner? Lightwork<\/strong> seems a cinch, but Triple A Prayer<\/strong>, Non Negative<\/strong>, and End Of the Bench<\/strong> all have legit shots as well. Heck, nine of the ten entrants could walk away with the Warsaw Classic trophy.<\/p>\n <\/body><\/html><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" For the first time in recent memory, sim-land has just one graded race, Yes, just one. Nothing on turf, nothing<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5387"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5387\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}