\nCovid 19 has disrupted racing world wide but perhaps the biggest\nchange is moving the Kentucky Derby from the first Saturday in May to\nthe first Saturday in September. This has wide ranging repercussions\nfrom the entry point system to the early Derby wagering and of course\nwhat happens to the rest of the Triple Crown races? I thought it\nmight be interesting to discuss possible scenarios and get your\nopinions on what could happen. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To being no one\nknows how long the novel coronavirus will continue keeping the\npopulation indoors and some racetracks shuttered. Just this week the\nStronach Group was forced to close Santa Anita, postponing the Santa\nAnita Derby and NYRA was forced to close Aqueduct as it has been\nturned into a makeshift hospital for New York\u2019s sick. In addition\nmany backstretch workers in New York have tested positive for Covid\n19 making the future of racing in New York uncertain. When racing at\neach venue reopens is anyone\u2019s guess. On the other hand Florida\nhas continued live racing and just last week ran the Florida Derby,\nwon by Tiz the Law one of the early favorites for a May Derby. In\naddition Tampa Bay Downs in Florida ran the Sam F. Davis Stakes which\nwas won by Sole Volante. He returned to run second in the Tampa Bay\nDerby but was upset by 50\/1 shot King Guillermo. Another Derby prep\nwas run recently, the Louisiana Derby which was won by Wells Bayou. \nThe Fairgrounds abruptly shut down racing the day after the Louisiana\nDerby. Still running is Oaklawn Park which hosts the Arkansas Derby.\n That race was moved to the first Saturday in May, offering a bridge\nrace to future starts. Indeed King Guillermo\u2019s connections had\nplanned on training up to the Derby in September before altering\ntheir plans to head to the Arkansas Derby and then see what happens. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But what do we make\nof the winners of these prep races? Many horses peak early in their\nthree year old season while others get better as the year goes on. \nAnd do these horses continue to race at the tracks still open or\nshould they get a break until normal racing resumes? It likely\ndepends on when the other Triple Crown races are scheduled. At this\npoint in time racing in Maryland is canceled so it seems unlikely\nthat the Preakness will keep it\u2019s spot on the calendar in mid-May. \nBut by June will NYRA have a viable shot at running the Belmont\nStakes? The Triple Crown is a loosely organized grouping between the\nthree organizations. Will Churchill Downs insist that they Triple\nCrown be run in its traditional order starting with the Derby in\nSeptember? Will the other organizations agree to that? Certainly it\nwould make a big impact on the Breeders\u2019 Cup which is currently\nscheduled for November sixth and seventh. But what if the risks from\nthe novel coronavirus are lessened by June? Or if NYRA is allowed to\nrun races at Belmont without spectators? \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the Belmont were\nto be the first race of the Triple Crown series would the current top\nrunners want to go for it? Asking a three year old to go a mile and\na half for the first time with preps of only eight and a half or nine\nfurlongs is a lot. You also have to consider that in a traditional\nyear many of the prep winners don\u2019t make it to the Belmont anyways.\n Yet the chance of winning the Triple Crown is tempting. Running\nin the Arkansas Derby and then getting five weeks off to run in the\nBelmont Stakes follows the pattern of several recent Belmont Stakes\nwinners who ran in the Kentucky Derby, skipped the Preakness to point\nto the Belmont Stakes. Do trainers today know how to put stamina\ninto their training regimes to get horses prepped for a mile and a\nhalf race? Might Belmont run it\u2019s traditional Belmont prep the\nPeter Pan at a mile and a quarter to give horses a chance to stretch\nout should racing be resumed in New York by then? All intriguing\npossibilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then comes two\ndilemmas \u2013 when will the Preakness be run and will traditional\nsummer races award points to get into the Derby field. Most horses\nwho run in the Triple Crown take time off before coming back in the\nJuly Haskell or Jim Dandy and the August Travers Stakes. Certainly\nit makes sense for horses peaking later in the year to be given the\nchance to run in a late season Derby. Imagine Arrogate\u2019s Travers\ntriumph and then not seeing him make the cut for the Kentucky Derby. \nBut first we have to consider how the racing calendar would change if\nthe Triple Crown starts with the Belmont. The biggest question would\nbe whether the Preakness moves to the summer or its more traditional\ntimeline of two weeks after the Derby. In addition the Travers is\nusually run in mid-August. We would need to see at least that race\nmoved up a week or two if it is to be a final prep for the Derby. \nNYRA would almost certainly change the date for the Jim Dandy to\naccommodate that but other horses might choose to prep for the Derby\nin the Haskell and then train up to the Derby. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The last issue is\nKentucky Derby Future Wagers. The first pool started in late\nNovember and the final pool is scheduled for this weekend. Some\nhorse players have demanded that all wagers be refunded due to the\nmove in the Derby schedule. Others are looking forward to playing\nthis weekend\u2019s pool knowing of the change in schedule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So what are your\nthoughts? How do you think this season will play out? And do you\nthink with all these changes we may yet see our third Triple Crown\nwinner after a thirty seven year drought? Please feel free to\ncomment with your speculations!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Covid 19 has disrupted racing world wide but perhaps the biggest change is moving the Kentucky Derby from the first<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":401,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/401"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=51633"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51633\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51634,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51633\/revisions\/51634"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=51633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=51633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=51633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}