2015 FOALS<\/p>\n
We are almost \u00be of the way through the foals 4yo season and have a good idea of which sires were a hit or miss. There are 31 sires in the Northern Hemisphere with 4 or more graded stakes winners. These would be the hits. I have compared them against the 2017 to see any correlation or variances. Is there any value? Are there sires to avoid? Are some sires rated to high or low? I have also looked at the numbers of graded stakes winners at 2 or 3 in real life. The maturity factor is playing a massive part in the game and I feel most players myself included are not maximising our horse\u2019s full potential.<\/p>\n
Galileo no surprises here. He is the best sire by a long way probably since St Simon and we live in a very different world to the past so comparing is very hard. He has the highest number and percentage of stakes\/graded stakes winners one of only 4 sires in the +13%\/8% super sires. He also has the highest percentage of graded stakes winners in terms of percentage for highly used sires in the sim. This is at a much lower rate. His real life is 13.67 vs 8.16. This is a massive variance. The reason appears to be down to development in the game his offspring mature slowly so many hit the wear and tear falloff before reaching their impact. This does not really reflect his real-life statistics he has 36.84%\/63.16% of his total of grade stakes winners scoring at 2\/3. Mike should really have a look at his offspring development profile in the game. At the end of the day he is just exceptional.<\/p>\n
Deep Impact Dead but his game figures way off his real-life results. Another sire who\u2019s offspring take a long time develop in the game rightly so. If you have them race sparingly till the age of 4.<\/p>\n
Dubawi he is the second of the four super sires. In real life his offspring improve and continue improving with age. His 2\/3-year-old percentage 33.33%\/66.67%. As with Galileo there is something to look at regarding the development curve in the game. His real life graded winning percentage is 9.68% vs 6.32%. This will even out in time, but the wear and tear factor are reducing his game impact. Do not over run at a young age.<\/p>\n
Scat Daddy dead and died before we could fairly judge him in the game.<\/p>\n
Frankel he is the third of the super sires. His real-life graded stakes percentage 8.74% versus 7.25%. This again reflects the fact his offspring develop slowly. This is becoming more evident and will have a greater bias in time. This can be seen in his 2\/3-year old percentages 33.33%\/55.56%. It is best to take your time with his offspring. Expect his stock in time to stay better as this should reflect what his real- life statistics are indicating. In his next crop he managed to sire two of the five English Classic winners. Expect better to come.<\/p>\n
Medagila D\u2019Oro he continues to do well and appeared high on the list of sires in Australia as well. He is just a good stallion period. His percentages 10.09%\/7.34%. The first is just outside of the top ten on the list but still is top class. The strange one is his sim GSW percentage of 3.66%. His 37.5% rate at 2\/3 is what I would expect for the younger age. It does fall differently to the Australian results but also confirm others. He has a good percentage of 2yo winners. He does though in the north have a lot of slow developers looking at the list which is probably leaving him the same book as Galileo he is rated better than results imply. Take your time if the offspring do not show up early.<\/p>\n
Curlin in real-life he has very solid figures 13.29%\/6.19%. he is being bred to better mares now and anyone who has seen the Keeneland sales will have seen the demand for his offspring. This is not a surprise at all. Of the only 4 dirt sires with over 5% graded stakes winners he is the only sire with a higher game winning percentage than real-life at 6.39%. This though probably reflects the lack of options for players trying to breed dirt classic horses. I would though question his development profile in the sim with 2\/3-year old graded stakes winners 14.29%\/57.14%. If we look at al the living sires above, we have a development issue Curlin\u2019s game offspring look like they need to have development slowed down.<\/p>\n
Camelot When looking at his figures to realise he was a first season Coolmore stallion. They tend to send a lot of quality mares to stallions and see what falls out. He did well and will attract good mares going forward. His percentages of 9.22%\/4.96% are below the stellar levels of those above. His 2\/3-year old break down is 14.29%\/71.43%. He is showing a slow development which would be expected by his own race record and pedigree. It is also useful when comparing against other sires and their own development speed, his is quicker than Curlin\u2019s hence the reason for a slowdown of development there. He has a game percentage of 5.32% which is pretty much on the money which is good for a sire with no real racing results.<\/p>\n
Tapit has by far and away the worst overall figures for sires with 6 or more graded stakes winners. His percentages are 7.94%\/4.76%. The former is bad only the 18th best on the list. His 2\/3-year old makes strange with 0%\/50% both very low. It would appear his development ratings may need looking at. His sim percentage of 6.29% is much higher. There are two variables at work here firstly this real-life year was the start of the fall off in results which has continued. It is impossible to predict the future but retrospectively you would expect Mike to be downgrading his peek rating. The other issue is the amount of high quality and mares in general being bred to him. This is understandable given the lack of quality dirt sires who can produce horses that stay beyond a mile and the obvious fact the largest demographic of players is USA based. Anyone who doubts his fall only needs to see the recent Keeneland sales and note he is no longer the sales darling Curlin is and he has the racetrack results to back it up.<\/p>\n
Speightstown he has thrown some impressive numbers 12.36%\/6.74%. His game figures show 1.40% which is massively different. His 2\/3-year old breakdown is 0%\/66.67%. He as a racehorse was a late developer and a lot of his offspring are too. I actual wonder if this is not built into the game with them hitting peak ability at 5 or older. Very few horses are still in peak order due to wear and tear then. He is a sire to really be restrictive on running until late in the 4-year old season.<\/p>\n
Blame his results from this crop are outstanding at 12.5%\/7.5%. I am not sure where they came from but nevertheless the facts do not lie. He was downgraded in the game and people have avoided with quality mares and the game percentage is 1.03%. This is further amplified by his offspring needing a lot of time to develop. This kind of stallion are therefore not achieving their maximum in terms of game results with current playing styles and wear and tear rates. A watching brief is required to see if he can replicate the results, he is blatantly better than what his game rating was at this point. I strongly suspect he has been nudged up in terms of performance with a watching brief going forward.<\/p>\n
New Approach is Blame lite throwing figures that read well from this crop 9.41%\/7.06%. His game figures are a lot lower as well. Everything that was written about Blame applies here and a watching brief is advised.<\/p>\n
Into Mischief he has thrown some somewhat strange figures 11.27%\/3.52%. He has been upgraded in the game since the game figures were produced and his real-life results have also got better. His game results are exactly where they would want to be 2.68% GSW which may seem a big difference but with so few graded stakes winners a swing of 1 in the game or real-life knocks the figures in the others favour 2.82%\/3.57%.<\/p>\n
Kitten\u2019s Joy the first point to highlight is how many foals he has 179 the highest on the list even the sires from Japan have bed post envy. It is no surprise then that outside of the sires from japan he has the worst percentages 3.91%\/2.79%. These are not top class his loft position down to number of runners more than quality. The other factor that I was not expecting was a 60%\/40% stroke rate at 2\/3. It would appear they either mature quickly which is possible given his sires racing record or that the wins come in the less competitive 2\/3 turf in the USA. Either way his game percentage of graded stakes runners 2.92% which is spot on. Though the future does not look bright with his ownership change and Chad Brown sourcing from overseas at the yearling sales.<\/p>\n
Candy Ride his split is 8.41%\/4.67% with the 2\/3-year old ratio 20%\/80% his offspring do improve for time. The development of these sires as seen above is not beneficial to their overall game results due to players lack of understanding of how aging works in the game. It is not helped by very quick wear and tear which sees slower maturing sires not achieve their optimum results. That said his game GSW is 3.92% one extra winner takes it to 4.9% which shows his rating is pretty much on the money. His stakes winner\u2019s ratio is 8.8% slightly more but both show a very tight correlation to reality.<\/p>\n
Malibu Moon the first and obvious point to highlight is his 2\/3-year old split 60%\/40%. His offspring can be seen to mature quickly. If we assume Mike has got him as a quick maturing sire, then his sim results should show a very close association to real life as peak performance should occur before the wear and tear effect. Guess what his GSW% game versus real life 4.65%\/4.59% right on the money. It is probably worth breeding to a quick maturing sire ever so often to help aid results, this is in my opinion much more important than looking at distance requirements.<\/p>\n
Uncle Mo his first crop results were amazing. They are still good but not the stellar figures. He stands at a Coolmore Stud hence my comments on Camelot and not taking everything at face value. He rightly got an advertised upgrade in the game. The effect is well bred mares flock to him, and his result improve more than would be expected, the opposite happened to Blame. His statistics are 7.75%\/3.88% which once the hyperbole of the upgrade has past is where about he is likely to produce in the game.<\/p>\n
Mastercraftsman is overall outside the sires from Japan one of the weakest performers on the list. He though is within the top 50 active sires in the world which kind of shows how shallow the super talent pool is. His percentages of 5.45%\/3.03% on the face of it do not seem amazing but compared to most stallions are. He had a very good year game wise with a 4.76% winning margin higher than real life. The impression I get are that his offspring mature quicker in the game than real life.<\/p>\n
Dansili dead<\/p>\n
Lord Kanaloa he is a strange one here but probably reflects and underestimation of his potential. His real-life statistics being 4.19%\/2.40%, they get better next year. His mare quality on the rise picking up a lot from deceased stallions, he is now easily the best active stallion in Japan. A game percentage of 0.77% is low and with 130 foals it is not down to under use. You would reasonable expect his rating to rise going forwards.<\/p>\n
Orfevre he is somewhat the reverse of the stallion above his percentage 2.8%\/2.8% show lack of depth and quality. The simple solution here is to reverse the rating given the two stallions and it would make sense. This will occur when guessing likely outcomes.<\/p>\n
King Kahehameha dead<\/p>\n
Quality Road the first thing to say is the sire is throwing some interesting numbers in various ways his percentages are 9.09%\/5.19% which is high end and you would think has a likely hood of improvement. The second factor is the majority test 50%\/50% we have the issue of very few graded wins, but it is more marked with just stakes wins 42.86%\/71.43%. This is a sire with a high AWD for a stallion based in the USA. A mixture of stamina and precious talent is a good mix for a potential 3yo dirt classic sire. His sim percentage falls behind this even with the flip over of one test. You would think a small increase in ability was given last year and that better game results are to follow.<\/p>\n
Dark Angel he is like Malibu Moon in many off his offspring mature early the 2\/3-year old split 50%\/50%. We can therefore expect his game results to mirror real life well. They do 3.20%\/2.90% the one up and down would flip the results around. A useful sire to add some precocious traits to slower developing turf pedigrees.<\/p>\n
Siyouni in many ways he is like Quality Road. His percentages 9.41%\/4.71% he again has offspring that mature reasonably early. That is not a surprise given he was at his best as a 2yo. Lot\u2019s of slow maturing mares are breed to him to get some precocious talent in them which seems to be working. He was upgraded in the game and that should put him on a par with real-life results going forward.<\/p>\n
Declaration Of War he like Camelot was a first season Coolmore sire. His results are going to be better than one would expect going forward, he has also ben moved from Ireland which might not have been the greatest move looking at the ratings of his best runners in real-life. His game rating of 2.06% GSW appears to be a reasonable reflection of his ability at present.<\/p>\n
Sea The Stars the first thing to look at is the 2\/3-year old split 0%\/75%. His offspring do improve a lot with age. The other numbers being 5.68%\/4.55% this compare to game rating of 7.22% which is a lot higher. The first thing to say is his game offspring need to develop slower than at present secondly, he appears to have a rating that is higher in the game than real-life at present.<\/p>\n
Arch dead<\/p>\n
Exceed And Excel is another sire who should do well in the game as he tends to produce quick developing offspring. A split of 75%\/50% of graded winners shows their quick development. We would therefore expect a similar real-life percentage of graded winners to game graded winners 4.26%\/4.10% is exactly where you would expect it to be. He is obviously rated correctly.<\/p>\n
Bated Breath this was not a name I was expecting on the list. I guess Juddmonte\u2019s decision to keep him as a stallion is vindicated. His offspring are slow to develop with only a 25% graded race strike rate at 2\/3. Half of his graded winners coming at 4. This improving with age process was on evidence Saturday with a 5yo daughter winning her first graded race. It is worth noting his half brother was cityscape also made the top 100. His half sister has sired the unbeaten classic winner Logician. The quality and the slow development shines through here. His breakdown is 5.21%\/4.17%. In the game his percentage is 0% from 29
\nrunners. He is obviously capable of better and given current trend will get some form of upgrade. The important factor is to take plenty of time with the horses.<\/p>\n
Farhh always seems to appear on my list\u2019s but look at the facts. His percentages read 16.22%\/10.81% second only to Galileo. That takes some digesting. In this crop and his second crop to reach the age of 3 this year he has a classic placed horse. The big downside to him is his fertility the results were achieved of only 37 foals. When stallions have such low fertility, it has a negative impact on mare quality as well. He is the hardest sire to rank in the game. Do you take the view and read the results as read or temper them somewhat to reflect the small sample? It is not an easy question to answer. The only thing we can say at 2.27% GSW in the game he would appear to be due an upgrade of a large amount whichever way you call it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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