{"id":49305,"date":"2019-06-10T21:17:36","date_gmt":"2019-06-11T01:17:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=49305"},"modified":"2019-06-10T21:17:36","modified_gmt":"2019-06-11T01:17:36","slug":"future-stars-series-9-fillies-head-to-kentucky-on-sunday-for-a-6-5f-nw2l","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=49305","title":{"rendered":"Future Stars Series – 9 Fillies Head To Kentucky on Sunday For A 6.5f NW2L"},"content":{"rendered":"

First, a quick recap of last week\u2019s race.\u00a0 It was a relatively solid pace that led to a bit of a duel up front, between Yankee Justine <\/b>and Dry Eyes<\/b>.\u00a0 They were neck and neck for the first half of the race, with Yankee Justine slightly ahead, but Yankee Justine started to wear out slightly and Dry Eyes took the lead at the top of the stretch.\u00a0 But instead, the solid pace was enough to allow for a closing kick, and that charge came from Ship The Kash<\/b> ($16.20), who came flying from 9th<\/sup> early to challenge Dry Eyes.\u00a0 Ship The Kash grabbed the lead and crossed the finish line first, winning by 1 length with a 79 SP.\u00a0 Dry Eyes<\/b> held on for 2nd<\/sup>, and it was another 1-1\/2 lengths back to Yankee Justine<\/b>, who was well clear of 4th<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

For the throngs of Future Stars Series fans who said \u201cthat last 2yo race was great!\u00a0 I just want to see more of it!\u201d Well\u2026you\u2019re in luck!\u00a0 Because we\u2019re staying in Kentucky this week, as we, for the 2nd<\/sup> week in a row, check out a 6.5f dirt NW2L Allowance for 2yo fillies.\u00a0 This race has drawn a field of 9.\u00a0 The field is:<\/p>\n

#1 – Crafty Beauty<\/b> (Take Charge Indy x Pioneers Tale [Tale of Ekati x Pioneerof the Nile]) \u2013 Owned by holdingnyc<\/i> \u2013 15\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 2:1-0-0; $9,876<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Crafty Beauty said \u201cno thanks\u201d to the maiden level and instead debuted in an allowance at 5f on the dirt on January 30 in Minnesota.\u00a0 Taking on 12 rivals, Crafty Beauty went off at 17\/1 and wasn\u2019t the fastest out of the gate, as she ended up 6th<\/sup> early (though only \u00bd length back).\u00a0 But it turns out she was the most mature of the group, and slowly moved up until she finally got to the front, getting up to win by a neck and earning a 67 SP.\u00a0 She came back 1 month later in a NW2L at 6f and sat 3rd<\/sup> early but tired and finished 5th<\/sup>, earning a 66 SP.\u00a0 Crafty Beauty will try to get crafty and find her way back to the front today.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Take Charge Indy, the G1-winning son of Hall of Famer Take Charge Lady, currently stands in South Korea and was the #218 ranked Korean sire in 2018.\u00a0 In the sim, Take Charge Indy\u2019s 2018 crop currently ranks #57 overall with 69 winners from 104 starters, winning at an 18% rate.\u00a0 Among those are 2 G1 winners, one at 9f on the dirt and one at 7f on the dirt.\u00a0 In addition, his 2019 crop already includes 1 stakes winner, Purple Heart Lane, <\/b>who took a 5.5f dirt stakes back on April 21.\u00a0 Take Charge Indy\u2019s sim foals largely prefer the dirt (73% of earnings on dirt), but are evenly split between sprints and routes (51% in routes), though he has more sprinting winners than routing winners.\u00a0 Crafty Beauty is the first foal from 5yo mare Pioneers Tale.\u00a0 Pioneers Tale won 3 of her 17 career races, but did most of her damage early.\u00a0 After rattling off 2 straight wins at 5f on dirt to start her career, she tried stakes company and ran 3rd<\/sup> in a 5.5f dirt stakes.\u00a0 Unfortunately, that was the highlight of her career.\u00a0 She found sprinting to be her best distance, specifically around 7f, and seemed to be showing promise on turf in the claiming ranks before retiring.\u00a0 Crafty Beauty is one of 2 sim foals from the past 5 years that are by Take Charge Indy out of a Tale of Ekati mare, but the other has not shown anything on the track in 7 career starts.\u00a0 The Cairo Prince x Forestry cross is unexpectedly popular, with 6 sim horses sharing that lineage over the past 5 years.\u00a0 Of those, 4 have found the winner\u2019s circle, all in dirt sprints, but each (including Prince of Sealand) has only 1 victory (a 4 for 66 record in dirt sprints lifetime).\u00a0 Crafty Beauty\u2019s dosage index of 3.00 and CD of 0.64 suggest she might like slightly longer than today\u2019s distance, but not too much longer.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Crafty Beauty came up big as a longshot in her debut race, but didn\u2019t seem to progress much in her second.\u00a0 She got 3 months off after that run though, so we\u2019ll see if she\u2019s got something extra on the track as she likely tries to stalk the pace.\u00a0 Being one of the more experienced horses in the field, she\u2019s got a chance, but she\u2019ll likely need to step up a bit to get the job done here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n

#2 – Blue Candy Maker<\/b> (Candy Ride (ARG) x Tis Taz Cat [Bluegrass Cat x Empire Maker]) \u2013 Owned by rickybobbylod<\/i> \u2013 8\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $33,720<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Blue Candy Maker made her debut back on April 14, when she took on a field of 10 in a 6.5f dirt MSW here in Kentucky. \u00a0Off at 8\/1, she stalked the pace early, sitting 2 lengths back in 3rd<\/sup>, but came charging late and got first run over a couple of her competitors, managing to grab the lead and then hold on to win by a head, earning a 69 SP.\u00a0 A decent number of that field has come back to run 70+ SPs, with the 5th<\/sup> and 7th<\/sup> place finishers breaking their maidens next time out.\u00a0 Blue Candy Maker will look to keep the ball rolling here.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Candy Ride, who stands in Kentucky for $80,000, was the #2 ranked US sire of 2018, largely on the back of 2018 Pegasus World Cup winner Gun Runner.\u00a0 In the sim, Candy Ride is a solid sire, as his 2018 crop currently ranks #35 overall.\u00a0 That 3yo crop includes 134 runners to date, from which 78 have won races at a 17% rate.\u00a0 5 of those winners have pulled off the feat at the stakes level, mostly in dirt routes, and two are G2 winners, including Black Middle Flower Stk-G2<\/span> winner OG Candy Front<\/b>, though two (including 1 G2) stakes winners have done so in 7-7.5f dirt sprints.\u00a0 Candy Ride\u2019s sim progeny typically prefer the dirt (66% of earnings on dirt) and have shown a slight preference for routes (58% routes), which lines up with his real life average winning distance of 7.07f (about average for a US sire).\u00a0 Blue Candy Maker is the sole foal from 5yo he-mare TIs Taz Cat.\u00a0 Tiz Tas Cat won 5 of his 22 career races, including 4 at the allowance level, and managed a 3rd<\/sup> place in a 5 horse stakes at 5.5f on the dirt as a 3yo.\u00a0 Most of his races did occur in sprints, but he actually found the turf more to his liking, doing his best running at 6-7f on the turf.\u00a0 Candy Ride has been bred to a Bluegrass Cat mare 3 times in the past 5 years, but neither of those other horses have broken their maidens as of yet, both showing minimal dirt talent.\u00a0 Blue Candy Maker\u2019s 1.67 dosage index and 0.42 CD are screaming out for more distance than today\u2019s race, so watch out for her once 2yos can start running longer distances later in the year.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Blue Candy Maker put together a solid debut effort as she caught a pretty quick pace but had no issues withstanding the heat, either on the front end or coming late.\u00a0 The pedigree indicates that she shouldn\u2019t have any problem with the distance, though there is a question if she\u2019ll prefer the turf.\u00a0 Still, look for her to take a step forward here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

#3 – Miss Warrior<\/b> (Warrior\u2019s Reward x Attip [Tapit x Tale of the Cat]) \u2013 Owned by kashman<\/i> \u2013 11\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $33,720<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Miss Warrior, a PA-bred filly, opened her racing career at 4.5f on the dirt in Kentucky on April 21.\u00a0 There, she barely got away from the gate, breaking 7th<\/sup> in the field of 8, dropping 3-1\/2 lengths back early.\u00a0 But she came flying late, and just barely got up to take the win by a head, earning a 65 SP in the process. \u00a0She\u2019ll stretch out significantly here as she tries to put together the same type of run.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Warrior\u2019s Reward, a multiple graded stakes winner from 7-8.5f on the dirt, currently stands in Pennsylvania for $4,500, but has produced well beyond his modest expectations and was the #38 ranked US sire in 2018 (#1 in Pennsylvania).\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop isn\u2019t quite as promising, currently ranking #444 overall with 16 winners from 31 runners, winning at a 17% rate.\u00a0 None of those horses have been successful beyond the allowance level as of yet.\u00a0 Warrior\u2019s Reward\u2019s sim foals prefer the dirt, with 68% of earnings on the main track, and show a slight preference to sprinting with 57% of earnings in sprints.\u00a0 The pure numbers, however, show a stronger sprinting preference, with the data possibly skewed by the fact that his 2 graded stakes winners in the past 5 years both did so in dirt routes, and that sprinting preference fits in with his real world 6.87 AWD.\u00a0 Miss Warrior is the 9th<\/sup> foal from 13yo mare Attip.\u00a0 Attip struggled in her career, winning just 2 of her 28 career races, both in turf sprints.\u00a0 However, she spent most of her career on the dirt, struggling in the claiming ranks.\u00a0 But it was the breeding shed where she finally struck gold\u2026or bronze, with her 2nd<\/sup> foal.\u00a0 That foal, Kash on Tap<\/b>, won 9 of her 42 races, all on dirt, including The Victorious Ride-G3<\/span> at 6f, and placed in 5 other graded stakes, including running 2nd<\/sup> in the 2013 Bluegrass Oaks-G1<\/span> as the 3rd<\/sup> betting choice.\u00a0 Unfortunately, none of the other foals have achieved that level of success, and only one of the 6 foals since then have even won more than 2 career races (only 2 are still active).\u00a0 Tapit mares have been sent to Warrior\u2019s Reward 12 times in the past 5 years, and the combo has produced 1 stakes winner out of 10 total winners.\u00a0 The stakes win (and 6 other stakes placing) all came in turf routes, but most of the foals have actually preferred dirt, with a pretty even split of sprinters and routers.\u00a0 Miss Warrior\u2019s dosage index of 3.50 and CD of 0.78 put today\u2019s distance at the top of her list.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Miss Warrior seems to have closing speed, and should be happy with the added distance and the up front speed in today\u2019s race.\u00a0 This race sets up very well for her, but her first race was a little slower than some of the top contenders in this race.\u00a0 She may need to take a big step forward to pull out today\u2019s race, but that speed wasn\u2019t all that surprising, given that it was at 4.5f, and she\u2019s certainly got a chance to impress today.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#4 – Twisting Road<\/b> (Twirling Candy x Tizz The Boss [Tizway x Quality Road]) \u2013 Owned by oldmoonfarms39<\/i> \u2013 13\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $33,720<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Twisting Road began her career on April 20 in a Hoosier Residency-restricted MSW at 6f on the dirt in Kentucky.\u00a0 In a field of 13 first time starters, Twisting Road broke 4th<\/sup> early, sitting ever so slightly off the pace, but had no patience for the pacesetters and decided to take over herself in the far turn.\u00a0 From there, it was a sprint to the finish and she narrowly held off a rival, winning by a head with a 66 SP.\u00a0 She\u2019ll take on non-residency competition here in Race #2.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Twirling Candy, a G1-winning dirt sprinter and G2-winning router (both on turf and dirt), currently stands for $25,000 in Kentucky and was the #46 ranked US sire in 2018.\u00a0 In the sim, his 2018 crop currently ranks #253 overall, with 31 winners from 57 runners winning at a 15% rate.\u00a0 One of those colts just picked up the first stakes win of the crop, at 5.5f on the dirt.\u00a0 Much like that colt, Twirling Candy\u2019s sim progeny tend to focus on dirt sprints, with 64% of earnings on dirt and 61% in sprints, in line with his real world 6.69 AWD.\u00a0 Twisting Road is the 2nd<\/sup> foal from 5yo mare Tizz The Boss.\u00a0 Tizz The Boss only ran 11 times in her career, but ended up in the winner\u2019s circle 4 times.\u00a0 Only one of those was in an allowance, with the other 2 coming at the claiming ranks.\u00a0 She saw a massive improvement when dropping to that level, putting in her best races in 7-7.5f dirt claimers, though she never stretched out beyond that on the dirt (nor did she ever try turf sprinting).\u00a0 Twisting Road\u2019s only sibling to date is an allowance winner in 9 career races thus far, taking a 5f turf sprint NW2L, but hasn\u2019t tried anything over 6f.\u00a0 There is one other sim foal to share the Twirling Candy x Tizway bloodlines over the past 5 years, from the same owner, and she is a winner of 1 in 6 starts, with her best race thus far coming in her maiden score at 8f.\u00a0 Twisting Road\u2019s 3.00 DI and 0.75 CD put today\u2019s race right up his alley.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>:\u00a0 It\u2019s always a bit of a tough move coming out of a residency-restricted race and taking on the wider sim, but Twisting Road will try it here and there\u2019s no reason to think she can\u2019t pull it off.\u00a0 She dug in gamely to withstand a late charge in her last race, so she\u2019ll need to progress to make sure she can get the extra half furlong here.\u00a0 But this is another filly with some potential, so watch for her to sit just off the pace early and try to hang on late.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

#5 – Shanghai Lovins<\/b> (Shanghai Bobby x God Love Her [Street Sense x Pulpit]) \u2013 Owned by debargain<\/i> \u2013 9\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 2:1-0-0; $34,694<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Shanghai Lovins made her debut in Kentucky on March 17 in a 6f MSW.\u00a0 There, she dueled for the lead early, quickly put away her competition, and drew off to defeat the field of 11 by 1-3\/4 lengths with a 68 SP.\u00a0 That race looked particularly solid, as the 2nd<\/sup> and 4th<\/sup> place finishers each came back to break their maiden next time out, the 2nd<\/sup> place finisher with an 80 SP.\u00a0 Unfortunately, Shanghai Lovins stumbled a bit in her 2nd<\/sup> race, a NW2L allowance at 6f back on May 2.\u00a0 There, she broke 7th<\/sup> early and never really got involved, losing ground on the leaders and finishing 5th<\/sup> with a 67 SP.\u00a0 She\u2019ll look to revert back to her debut form today.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Shanghai Bobby, the Eclipse Award Champion 2yo in 2012, currently stands in Japan and was the #286 ranked Japanese sire in 2018.\u00a0 In the sim, his 3yo crop currently ranks #380 overall, with 22 winners from 39 runners winning at a 14.5% rate.\u00a0 His sim runners are mainly dirt sprinters, with 74% of earnings on dirt and 66% in sprints.\u00a0 His 1 G1-winning sim foal, a now-retired 7yo, achieved that success when he was a 2yo, and while Shanghai Bobby\u2019s ranking might not be that high, 34 of his 40 foals in the past 5 years that have won at least 1 dirt sprint as a 2yo have done so at the allowance level.\u00a0 Shanghai Lovins is the 2nd<\/sup> foal from 6yo mare God Love Her, a multiple stakes placed mare who loved going long.\u00a0 She won 4 of her 23 career races, her best of which, include her 2nd<\/sup> and 3rd<\/sup> place stakes finishes, came in the 10-12f dirt range.\u00a0 Her first foal, She Loves Deeply<\/b> (Deep Impact (JPN)<\/i>), has 1 win through 5 career starts, but hasn\u2019t quite shown the same interest in long distance running as her mother.\u00a0 The Shanghai Bobby x Street Sense connection has produced 2 winners out of 4 runners over the past 5 years.\u00a0 The best of those has 8 wins in 35 starts, earning most of those wins in dirt routes.\u00a0 Shanghai Lovins\u2019 dosage index of 4.33 and CD of 0.75 indicate a preference for sprinting, a good sign for this race.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Shanghai Lovins set lofty expectations after her strong debut where she blitzed the field.\u00a0 But a different horse showed up in race number 2, as she didn\u2019t have the gate speed or the finish of her debut.\u00a0 So the question is\u2026which is the real Shanghai Lovins?\u00a0 We\u2019ve all seen horses put up strong debuts and never run back to that effort again, and we\u2019ve also seen horses debut strong, throw a clunker, and come right back on top.\u00a0 We\u2019ll have to see today to get a sense of the future.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

#6 – Lethal Cry<\/b> (Curlin x Lethal Electra [Tapit x Street Cry]) \u2013 Owned by 22away<\/i> \u2013 3\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $33,720<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: This regally bred filly made her debut in Kentucky on April 4 in a 6.5f MSW in a field of 12.\u00a0 Lethal Cry broke very slow and looked almost uninterested early on, dropping as many as 5.5 lengths back.\u00a0 But she came flying late, gobbling up ground and eventually storming past the leaders, drawing off to win by 1-1\/4 as the 2\/1 favorite and earning a 71 SP.\u00a0\u00a0 She\u2019ll try to make it 2 for 2 at Kentucky today.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Curlin, the 2-time US Horse of the Year and #6 ranked US sire of 2018, currently stands for $175,000 in Kentucky.\u00a0 In the sim, his 3yos currently rank #28 overall, with 103 winners from 164 runners, victorious at a 16% rate.\u00a0 That crop includes 6 stakes winners, one of whom, Curlin’s Storm Cat<\/b>, took home the 7f Dell Computer Futurity-G1<\/span>\u00a0back in September 2018.\u00a0 Somewhat surprisingly, most of the stakes wins for those horses have come in dirt sprints, though one scored on the turf and two achieved success in dirt routes.\u00a0 Those last 2 line up with Curlin more generally in the sim, as he tends to through dirt routers (67% earnings on dirt, 67% in routes), which tracks with his real world 7.55f average winning distance.\u00a0 Lethal Cry is the first foal from 4yo (early bred) mare Lethal Electra.\u00a0 The well-scratch bred mare didn\u2019t end up doing much of anything on the track, so she was retired after only 7 races.\u00a0 She broke her maiden at 5f on the dirt in her 2nd<\/sup> career race, a sizeable improvement over her first effort at 6.5f, but never finished better than 5th<\/sup> at the allowance level.\u00a0 With that said, she only ever ran in dirt sprints, so it\u2019s tough to know what her preferred surface or distance would have been.\u00a0 Curlin has been bred to a Tapit mare 25 times over the past 5 years, with 21 winners among the group.\u00a0 Only 1 of those has achieved stakes victory, coming in a dirt route (as most of the Curlin x Tapit horses do), though that filly was also 2nd<\/sup> in the 2017 California Oaks-G1<\/span> and managed to make the field of the 2017 Bluegrass Oaks<\/span>, where she finished 15th.\u00a0 Lethal Cry\u2019s dosage index of 3.80 and CD of 0.79 put today\u2019s race squarely in her wheelhouse.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Lethal Cry has quite the pedigree to live up to.\u00a0 Unfortunately her mother was never able to do it, but Lethal Cry already looks to have some more talent than her dam.\u00a0 Her strong closing kick in her debut was a nice run that you don\u2019t often see for young 2yos at these short distances, and it suggests that Lethal Cry might even prefer longer than this 6.5f distance.\u00a0 Unfortunately, that\u2019s as far as 2yos can go right now, but Lethal Cry looks like she might have a solid career ahead of her.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#7 – Traffic Ride<\/b> (Cross Traffic x Ghost Ride LV [Ghostzapper x Candy Ride) \u2013 Owned by klh8<\/i> \u2013 4\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $33,720<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Traffic Ride put together a very strong debut run back on April 21.\u00a0 Opening up at today\u2019s 6.5f distance here in Kentucky, Traffic Ride went with the pace early, sitting just \u00bd a length back, and then proved she was much the best by asserting herself in the far turn.\u00a0 She pulled away, defeating the 13 horse field by 1-1\/2 lengths and earning a very strong 77 SP.\u00a0 She\u2019ll try to repeat that run here.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Cross Traffic, a G1 winner at 9f, was the #1 ranked freshman US sire of 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $25,000.\u00a0 Cross Traffic\u2019s 2018 sim crop (the 3yo crop) currently ranks #535 overall, with 10 winners from 27 runners winning at a 12% rate, as it has not yet caught up to his real world progeny.\u00a0 His sim foals are primarily dirt sprinters (72% of earnings on dirt, 82% in sprints), with over 75% of his sim winners over the past 5 years having been successful in dirt sprints, and that is in line with his 6.62 real world AWD. Traffic Ride is the 3rd<\/sup> foal from 6yo mare Ghost Ride LV, a winner of 3 of her 15 career races.\u00a0 Ghost Ride LV spent most of her career around the 8f distance, picking up 2 allowance wins in addition to her maiden victory.\u00a0 She made 2 failed stakes efforts at the 11-11.5f distance (which was too far for her), but may have retired before she was completely done on the track.\u00a0 Her two previous foals have followed in her footsteps, both also preferring dirt routes in the 8-8.5f range and both having found success at the allowance level (neither have tried stakes company).\u00a0 Cross Traffic has been bred to a Ghostzapper mare one other time in the sim, but that horse has not shown much ability to date (in fact, Traffic Ride\u2019s debut was a better race than any of that horse\u2019s 14 prior runs).\u00a0 Traffic Ride\u2019s dosage of 4.60 and CD of 0.79 indicate a sprinting preference for this filly.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Traffic Ride put up one of the best races in the field in her debut, and it puts her towards the top of the heap here.\u00a0 Mixing in her sire\u2019s sprinting preferences, and you\u2019ve got a solid combination for this race.\u00a0 She\u2019ll likely sit close to the pace again, and hope to stay there at the end.\u00a0 Traffic Ride is definitely one to keep your eye on.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#8 – Road of Heroes<\/b> (Quality Road x Age of Heroes [Medaglia D\u2019Oro x A.P. Indy]) \u2013 Owned by given10<\/i> \u2013 2\/1 (f<\/i>)<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 2:1-1-0; $47,770<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: With the numbers, it was only a matter of time before a given<\/i> horse came up in this series, and we get our first today with Road To Heroes (though as the sponsor of this race, it was pretty much a\u2026given\u2026 that we\u2019d get one of his horses).\u00a0 This filly debuted on April 5 at 6.5f on the dirt in Kentucky and ran a ridiculous race, getting locked in a front-running duel with Apathetic Guru<\/b>.\u00a0 That rival managed to win the race by \u00bc length, but Road To Heroes finished 3 lengths in front of 3rd<\/sup>, earning a 78 SP that was the 4th<\/sup> highest non-winning SP for a 2yo to that point.\u00a0 Apathetic Guru came back to win the Vermont-sponsored Happy Mothers Day-G2<\/span> and is currently the #2-ranked dirt 2yo filly, and the 5th<\/sup> and 6th<\/sup> place finished from that race each came back to break their maiden next time out.\u00a0 Road To Heroes also proved her debut was no fluke, as she came back at 6.5f in Kentucky on May 5 and blitzed the field, going wire-to-wire to win by 1 length and earning a field-high 80 SP.\u00a0 She\u2019ll look to do the same today.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Quality Road, a multiple G1-winning horse, currently stands for $150,000 in Kentucky and was the #7 ranked US sire in 2018 (#1 in G1 Wins).\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop is struggling compared to his other classes, currently ranking #107 with 64 winners from 94 runners (winning at a 15% rate), though his 2yo crop currently ranks #7 overall with 22 winners from 77 runners.\u00a0 Only one of the 94 3yos is currently a stakes winner, and that horse, Quality Killer<\/b>, is a G3 winner at 8f on the turf, though he is also stakes placed at 9.5f on the dirt. <\/b>Quality Road\u2019s progeny strongly prefer dirt (68% earnings on dirt), with a pretty even split in earnings between sprints and routes (though the speed figures and number of winners favor sprints).\u00a0 His real world AWD of 7.40 suggests a preference for short routes, which lines up with his best sim progeny (he has 4 graded stakes winners in dirt routes over than last 5 years, vs. only 2 in dirt sprints).\u00a0 Road To Heroes is the 2nd<\/sup> foal from 10yo mare Age of Heroes.\u00a0 Age of Heroes won 1\/3 of her 33 career races.\u00a0 1 of those 11 wins was in stakes company, taking an 8.5f dirt stakes, and she was stakes-placed at 8-8.5f on both turf and dirt.\u00a0 Her first foal, 6yo War of Heroes<\/b> (War Front<\/i>), won 3 of her 12 career races, spending most of her time in dirt routes.\u00a0 Quality Road has been bred to a Medaglia D\u2019Oro mare 17 times in the past 5 years, with 2 of those runners being stakes placed (all in dirt routes).\u00a0 Although a lot of the horses have shown both turf and dirt abilities, most do end up as dirt routers.\u00a0 Road To Heroes\u2019 DI of 2.38 and CD of 0.59 suggest that she\u2019ll like stretching out even more than she likes the current distance.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Road To Heroes has run 2 races better than any other horse in this field, and the only horse that has ever beaten her is the #2 ranked 2yo dirt filly.\u00a0 In other words, Road To Heroes is your favorite for a reason.\u00a0 She looks like she\u2019ll try to grab the lead from the get-go here, and from there it\u2019s just a question of whether one of the other horses can keep up.\u00a0 Road To Heroes looks like the real deal, both here and for the future.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#9 – Prince of Sealand<\/b> (Cairo Prince x Bushy [Forestry x Speightstown]) \u2013 Owned by affirmed76<\/i> \u2013 14\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 2:1-1-0; $24,130<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Prince of Sealand opened her career at 17\/1 in a 5.5f dirt MSW in Kentucky on February 9.\u00a0 In that race, she outsprinted her 11 rivals for the lead and that got locked in a battle on the lead, digging in gamely but not quite holding on, finishing 2nd<\/sup> by \u00bc length with a 64 SP.\u00a0 The winner from that one has a win and a 2nd<\/sup> in 2 allowance tries since that race, as well as a 4th<\/sup> place stakes effort (and most recently was 9th<\/sup> in a stakes).\u00a0 Prince of Sealand came back 2 months later in another 5.5f MSW, this time in Minnesota, and had no problems dispatching the 4 horse field, easing to a 1-1\/4 length victory and earning a 61 SP.\u00a0 She stretches out an extra furlong here as she looks to take the next step forward.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Cairo Prince, a multiple graded stakes winning miler, currently stands in Kentucky for $25,000 and was the #3 ranked freshman US sire in 2018.\u00a0 In the sim, Cairo Prince\u2019s 2018 crop currently ranks a career high #49 overall.\u00a0 The crop contains 106 runners, of which 70 have won, and the reason for the high ranking is his 6 stakes winners and 2 graded stakes winners, including G1-winning Revitalization<\/b>, who won the Los Vinegrette Stakes-G1<\/span> at 8f on dirt and was 14th<\/sup> in the Bluegrass Oaks.\u00a0 His sim foals are largely dirt sprinters (75% of earnings on dirt, 65% in sprints), in line with his real world 6.83 AWD.\u00a0 Prince of Sealand is the 6th<\/sup> foal from 11yo mare Bushy, winner of 4 races in her 42 race career.\u00a0 Most of Bushy\u2019s career came In turf sprints, though she was never all that successful.\u00a0 Her only allowance victory came at 7f on the turf in a $8700 NW1x allowance.\u00a0 She spent most of her time trying super-sprints to no avail.\u00a0 Her first five foals all seem to have followed in her turf footsteps, making it a bit of a surprise that Prince of Sealand began on the dirt.\u00a0 Bushy\u2019s most successful foal is 5yo Caballo Prestado<\/b> (Perfect Soul<\/i>), who is stakes placed at 6.5f on the turf, but that 5yo only has 2 wins in 34 starts.\u00a0 Tu Amor<\/b> (North Light<\/i>) is a promising looking 3yo, with 3 wins in 8 career starts, all in turf sprints as well.\u00a0 Prince of Sealand\u2019s DI of 7.00 and CD of 1.00 suggest that she wants to do nothing but run fast and short.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Prince of Sealand has some early gate speed, which should help her be well placed towards the front of the pack in this 6.5f race.\u00a0 From a dam\u2019s side that focuses on short sprints, one has to wonder if 6.5f is too far for this filly, but the distances of her siblings and dam may have been more about the owner\u2019s selection than the horse\u2019s preferences, so there might not be an issue.\u00a0 The only other concern here is that the speed figures are well below the top numbers in this field.\u00a0 But Prince of Sealand had such an easy time last race, there\u2019s definitely a chance for a sizeable bump today.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the field for this NW2L allowance.\u00a0 On paper, Road To Heroes <\/b>is the best horse, and I\u2019m not sure it\u2019s all that close, so I\u2019m a little surprised that she\u2019s 2\/1.\u00a0 But just because she\u2019s the best on paper doesn\u2019t mean she\u2019ll be the best on the track.\u00a0 Still, I\u2019ll go with: (1) Road To Heroes<\/b>; (2) Lethal Cry<\/b>; (3) Blue Candy Maker<\/b><\/p>\n

Other Races to Watch this Weekend:<\/p>\n

1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 California \u2013 Local Alw NW1x @ 4.5f-T<\/a><\/p>\n

2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Wyoming \u2013 Alw NW3L @ 6.5f<\/a><\/p>\n

3)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 California \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 6.5f<\/a><\/p>\n

4)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Wyoming \u2013 Alw NW3L @ 6.5f<\/a><\/p>\n

5)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Berkshire-ENG \u2013 Alw NW1x @ 5f-T<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

First, a quick recap of last week\u2019s race.\u00a0 It was a relatively solid pace that led to a bit of<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":384,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[201,229],"class_list":["post-49305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews","tag-2yo","tag-future-stars-series"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49305","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/384"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=49305"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49305\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":49318,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49305\/revisions\/49318"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=49305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=49305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=49305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}