As mentioned in last week\u2019s Midyear Recap, this week the Future Stars Series is making a change\u2026we\u2019re heading to the 2yo ranks.\u00a0 I\u2019m hoping to update the race points system to better account for the fact that 2yos have very few career starts at this point, but this week we\u2019re still using the old model.\u00a0 Which means that this week, we\u2019re headed to Kentucky, where a full field of 14 2yo fillies stretch out to 6.5f for a NW2L Allowance on the dirt.\u00a0 Many of those fillies have only run once in their careers.\u00a0 The field is:<\/p>\n
#1 \u2013 Cats N Birds<\/b> (Bird Song x Alley Cat [High Yield x Gone West]) \u2013 Owned by hoppybob<\/i> \u2013 25\/1<\/p>\n
Race Record<\/span>: 3:1-0-0; $35,406<\/p>\n Race History<\/span>: One of the two veterans of the field, Cats N Birds also comes into this race as the longshot.\u00a0 She had a poor debut on the turf back on March 24, but shifted over to the dirt and saw a solid improvement when she ran 4th<\/sup> in her second race.\u00a0 She comes into this race off of her maiden score in a local 5f dirt MSW in Kentucky on May 11, where she led the field of 9 from the break and held on late, winning by \u00bd length and earning a career high 70 SP.\u00a0 She takes on non-local company for the first time here as she stretches out to 6.5f.<\/p>\n Pedigree<\/span>: Bird Song, a multiple graded stakes winner at 8-8.5f out of Champion 3yo filly Bird Town, entered stud in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $5,000.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop (current 3yos and his first crop) currently ranks #156 overall, with 37 winners from 72 runners winning at a 15% rate.\u00a0 His 3yo crop includes 1 dirt sprinting stakes winner, and his 2yo crop includes a horse who broke her maiden in a Blazing Saddles residency-restricted stakes race.\u00a0 Overall, his sim foals have preferred dirt sprints (72% of earnings on dirt, 78% in sprints).\u00a0 Cats N Birds is the 4th<\/sup> foal from 18yo mare Alley Cat.\u00a0 Alley Cat raced for quite a while, crossing a finish line 71 times, with 7 wins among them.\u00a0 All 7 of those came in dirt sprints, where she spent most of her career.\u00a0 She took a few shots at the stakes level, but was never able to finish better than 5th<\/sup> in her 4 career tries.\u00a0 Her first 3 foals are spaced out in age, but only her most recent, 3yo Alley D\u2019Wild<\/b> (D\u2019Wildcat<\/i>), has really done anything on the track, as he\u2019s found a niche in Louisiana local races, resulting in 4 wins from 13 career races thus far. He seems to be equally adept to turf and dirt, and to this point, he has spent his entire career sprinting.\u00a0 Cats N Birds dosage is 4.60, with a CD of 0.86, indicating a strong sprinting preference.<\/p>\n Expectations<\/span>: Cats N Birds broke through in her last race, which is nice to see, and she\u2019ll take on non-local dirt company for the first time here.\u00a0 She seems to like being out on the front, so expect her to bolt from the gate and try and set the pace here.\u00a0 There are some questions about whether she overdoes it early, however, as she\u2019s been tiring late in each of her 3 races and this will be her longest race to date.\u00a0 But it\u2019s possible that having the 3 race foundation under her will help improve her stamina; we\u2019ll see here.<\/p>\n Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n #2 – Blues Explosion<\/b> (Violence x Kabamezi [First Samurai x Smart Strike]) \u2013 Owned by saluki9<\/i> \u2013 9\/1<\/p>\n Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $33,720<\/p>\n Race History<\/span>: Blues Explosion began her career at 5f on the dirt in Kentucky back on April 1.\u00a0 On that day, she sat towards the back of a field of 10, but was only 2 lengths off the lead.\u00a0 From there, she came running late, passing most of the field on her way to a 1 length victory, earning a 69 SP.\u00a0 Although that race doesn\u2019t look that strong (none of the field has broken their maidens yet), Blues Explosion will try to capitalize and move forward here.<\/p>\n Pedigree<\/span>: Violence, the #45 overall (and #1 second-crop) US sire in 2018, was a G1 winner at 8.5f in his career and currently stands in Kentucky for $40,000.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop currently consists of 89 runners and 42 winners, winning at a 13.5% rate.\u00a0 Among those runners are 3 stakes winners, including Got Them All<\/b>, winner of the Wooden Indian-G1<\/span> and 17th<\/sup> in the Bluegrass Derby-G1<\/span>.\u00a0 Violence\u2019s sim foals have shown a preference for dirt (68% of earnings on dirt), while being fairly evenly split between sprints and routes (52% in sprints, though his best sim foals have been routers), although his real world AWD of 6.63 indicates a higher preference for sprinting. Blues Explosion is the 4th<\/sup> foal from 8yo mare Kabamezi, the winner of 5 races in her 20 race career.\u00a0 That career was spent primarily on the turf, with her fastest races coming at the 8f distance, though she was capable anywhere from 6-8.5f.\u00a0 Her best foal to date is 4yo filly Kabasaluki<\/b> (Warrior\u2019s Reward<\/i>), who just narrowly missed in an 8f stakes back in December 2018 and had a record of 11:6-5-0 going into her 4yo year (though she\u2019s had a couple of rough starts as a 4yo).\u00a0 Overall, Kabamezi\u2019s foals have done their best running at 8f on the dirt.\u00a0 There is one other Violence x First Samurai horse bred in the sim in the past 5 years, and he has been more of a turf runner, putting up some solid allowance runs in turf routes.\u00a0 Blues Explosion\u2019s dosage index of 2.43 and CD of 0.58 are, much like Violence\u2019s other sim stats, a little conflicting but make it somewhat likely that she would prefer the mile range.<\/p>\n Expectations<\/span>: Blues Explosion put something solid together in her first start, and it looks like she\u2019ll be happier getting a little more ground.\u00a0 Her two best siblings do their best running at 8f on the dirt, so she might end up liking distances slightly longer than this, but the stretch out here should at least make her happy.\u00a0 Expect her to sit midpack or further back here and then try to make a move late.<\/p>\n Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n #3 \u2013 Redarro<\/b> (Cupid x She\u2019s A Beast [Giant\u2019s Causeway x Dynaformer]) \u2013 Owned by teesaggro0<\/i> \u2013 10\/1<\/p>\n Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $3,000<\/p>\n Race History<\/span>: Redarro\u2019s debut came back on April 26, when she took on a 6f dirt Hot MSW in Kentucky.\u00a0 Her competition that day consisted of 1 CPU horse and 2 other fillies, so it wasn\u2019t the strongest competition.\u00a0 Still, Redarro did what you want to see when a horse takes on inferior completion; she made easy work of her opponents.\u00a0 Sitting over 3 lengths back early, Redarro came flying late, easily passing the pacesetter and drawing off to win by 1-3\/4.\u00a0 She earned only a 61 SP in that win, but she steps up the competition today to prove that she belongs at this level.<\/p>\n Pedigree<\/span>: Cupid, a graded stakes winner from 8.5f-10f, entered stud in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $10,000.\u00a0 His freshman 2018 sim crop is currently ranked #264 overall, with 44 winners from 77 runners to date, winning at a 14% rate.\u00a0 The crop includes 3 stakes winners to date, with 2 scoring in dirt routes and the third in a turf sprint.\u00a0 The class has shown a preference for dirt races overall (77% of earnings on dirt), though it\u2019s still too early to tell a distance preference until 3yos can get more routes in.\u00a0 Redarro is the 3rd<\/sup> foal from 7yo mare She\u2019s a Beast.\u00a0 She\u2019s a Beast, out of a G1-winning mare, won 8 of her 22 career starts, spending most of that career at the 9-10f dirt distance (and showing some ability at even longer distances).\u00a0 That career included a 2nd<\/sup> place finish in a 9.5f dirt stakes.\u00a0 Her first two foals, however, have not shown quite as much talent early on.\u00a0 4yo Knockingatthedoor<\/b> (Tapit<\/i>) is only now finding his way, as he has found the 12-16f distances to be more to his liking, whereas She\u2019s A Beast\u2019s 3yo filly has not yet broken her maiden after 7 starts, now running at the claiming level.\u00a0 The Cupid x Giant\u2019s Causeway cross has been used 5 times in the past 2 years, with 1 of those being more of a dirt router and one being a sprinter, but it\u2019s too early in those careers to really draw any conclusions.\u00a0 Redarro\u2019s dosage index of 1.93 and CD of 0.41 indicate a preference for slightly longer races.<\/p>\n Expectations<\/span>: There\u2019s not a whole lot that we can glean from Redarro\u2019s first career race, other than that it appears she prefers to come from behind.\u00a0 That shouldn\u2019t be a problem here, as she\u2019ll have some speed to run into.\u00a0 The hot race likely didn\u2019t take much out of her, but it also didn\u2019t give us much of an idea of how much talent, if any, this filly has.\u00a0 We\u2019ll see today.<\/p>\n Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n #4 – Dry Eyes <\/b>(Palace Malice x Godspeed Hellbound [Dynaformer x Forty Niner]) \u2013 Owned by sparkit<\/i> \u2013 12\/1<\/p>\n Race Record<\/span>: 3:1-0-0; $10,956<\/p>\n Race Record<\/span>: One of the veterans in the field, Dry Eyes has already raced 3 times in her career.\u00a0 She broke her maiden at first asking on February 2, in a 5.5f turf MSW in a field of 13.\u00a0 There, she dueled for the lead early and grabbed it as they turned for home, pulling away to win by 1-1\/4 lengths with a 66 SP.\u00a0 Dry Eyes regressed a little next time out at 5f on the turf, where she raced evenly and finished 5th<\/sup> (though the top 3 from that race have each gone on to win, including the winner of that NW2L event, who scored in a stakes race next time out). She enters this race off of a surface switch, as she tried dirt in a 6f local NW2L and again raced evenly, earning a career-high 67 SP but finishing 8th<\/sup> in the race (though the winner of that race also went on to stakes victory next time out, with a ridiculous 86 SP).\u00a0 Dry Eyes will try to improve off of that run here.<\/p>\n Pedigree<\/span>: Palace Malice, winner of the 2013 Belmont Stakes, currently stakes for $15,000 in Kentucky but his real progeny have not yet hit the track.\u00a0 In the sim, his 2018 crop is currently ranked #107, with 58 winners from 98 runners winning at a 15% rate (a little below his average of 16.5%).\u00a0 Among those 58 winners are 2 stakes winners, Palace Stormer<\/b>, who has been succeeding in turf sprints, and Into Malice<\/b>, a dirt sprinter. <\/b>In general, Palace Malice\u2019s sim progeny have preferred dirt (77% of earnings on dirt), with a pretty even mix of sprints and routes.\u00a0 He has had 1 graded stakes winner to date.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Dry Eyes is the 7th<\/sup> foal from 11yo mare Godspeed Hellbound, a winner of 7 races in her 30 race career.\u00a0 In addition to those wins, she was a 3-time stakes placed horse at 8-10f on the turf (which is generally where she did her best running).\u00a0 She hasn\u2019t really passed down that ability to her foals, however, as only 2 of her 6 previous foals have picked up an allowance win.\u00a0 There also doesn\u2019t seem to be a common thread in terms of race type, as even though most of her foals\u2019 wins have come on turf, some of their fastest races have been on dirt.\u00a0 Palace Malice has been bred to a Dynaformer mare 6 times in the past 5 years, but only 1 of those 6 has picked up an allowance win (doing so in a long-distance turf race).\u00a0 The fastest speeds for the combo have been on turf, though dirt races haven\u2019t been bad either.\u00a0 Dry Eyes\u2019 dosage index of 1.40 and CD of 0.28 suggest that she wants to run much longer than today\u2019s distance.<\/p>\n Expectations<\/span>: Dry Eyes has an advantage over some in this field simply by having already raced 3 times.\u00a0 Unfortunately, her last 2 efforts have left something to be desired.\u00a0 But it turns out the winners from those races have been very strong horses, so she might be able to do something here coming from a few lengths off the pace.<\/p>\n Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n #5 – Ship The Kash<\/b> (Midshipman x Kash Street [Street Cry x Bernardini]) \u2013 Owned by kashbarn<\/i> \u2013 7\/1<\/p>\n Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $27,000<\/p>\n Race History<\/span>: Ship The Kash began her racing career in Iowa, in a 5f dirt MSW on April 13.\u00a0 This filly only caught a field of 5 and went off as the even money favorite.\u00a0 Sure enough, after sitting 4th<\/sup> early, 1-1\/2 lengths back, she came on strong late and pulled away to win by 1 length.\u00a0 More impressive was the 74 SP that she earned for the win.\u00a0 The horse that Ship The Kash defeated would come back next time out to break her own maiden with a 72 SP.\u00a0 Ship The Kash stretches out to 6.5f here as she tries to duplicate her last performance.<\/p>\n Pedigree<\/span>: Midshipman, winner of the 2008 <\/b>Breeders\u2019 Cup Juvenile, was the #66 ranked US sire in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $8,500.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #247 overall, with 27 winners from 46 runners, winning at a 17.5% rate.\u00a0 One of those winners found victory in an ASR residency-restricted stakes at 8f on the dirt. \u00a0<\/b>But in general, Midshipman\u2019s sim foals are primarily dirt sprinters (72% of earnings on dirt, 62% in sprints), which is in line with his real world 6.71 AWD.\u00a0 Ship The Kash is the 2nd<\/sup> foal from 7yo mare Kash Street.\u00a0 Kash Street was a winner of 5 races out of her 30 career efforts, though she ran 2nd<\/sup> or 3rd<\/sup> in 18 of the 30, only running worse than 4th<\/sup> twice on dirt.\u00a0 Most of her career was spent in dirt route allowances, with her best coming in the 9-10f range.\u00a0 She did get close to a graded stakes placing, finishing 4th<\/sup> in her only career stakes effort in the 2017 King Classic<\/span>-G2, although she was beaten 11 lengths in that race.\u00a0 Her first foal, Kash Profit<\/b> (Tapit<\/i>), has shown some serious promise thus far, with 3 wins from 7 career starts (though he stumbled in his attempt at the California Derby-G1<\/span>, where he finished a well-beaten 12th<\/sup>).\u00a0 Midshipman has been bred to a Street Cry mare 7 times in the past 5 years, with 5 of those 7 earning a win thus far.\u00a0 The best have been dirt sprinters to date.\u00a0 Ship The Kash\u2019s dosage index of 3.57 and CD of 0.81 put this 6.5f race right in line with what her pedigree suggests she wants.<\/p>\n Expectations<\/span>: It was a dominant performance out of the gate for Ship The Kash, made even more impressive by the fact that she only took on 4 opponents.\u00a0 She should sit midpack or further back in this race, and will try to progress late to repeat her last run.\u00a0 She definitely has potential, but can she sustain it?<\/p>\n Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n #6 – Renown Runner<\/b> (Anchor Down x Hushwing Stebbing [Elusive Quality x Royal Academy]) \u2013 Owned by hoosier12<\/i> \u2013 13\/1<\/p>\n Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $10,080<\/p>\n Race History<\/span>: Renown Runner is one of the few to have tried this distance already.\u00a0 In her debut back on April 14 at 6.5f on the dirt, she took on a field of 6, and although she was the 4th<\/sup> choice at 9\/2, she grabbed the lead early and never looked back, easily winning by 2-1\/4 lengths.\u00a0 She earned a 68 SP in the win.\u00a0 The 3rd<\/sup> place horse from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 76 SP, so expect Renown Runner to potentially show some improvement here.<\/p>\n Pedigree<\/span>: Anchor Down, a G2-winning dirt miler (who was 2nd<\/sup> to Frosted in the 2016 Met Mile), currently stands for $7,500 and entered stud in Kentucky in 2017, so none of his real life foals have hit the track.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop (the 3yo crop) currently includes 56 runners, 29 of which have won at a 13.5% rate.\u00a0 Among those is 1 stakes winner, who picked up that win in a short turf sprint, but in general his sim horses have largely preferred dirt sprints (73% of earnings on dirt, 67% in sprints). Renown Runner is the 6th<\/sup> foal from 9yo mare Hushwing Stebbing.\u00a0 Hushwing Stebbing won 2 races in her 29 race career, but neither win was all that impressive.\u00a0 Most of her races, and her best efforts, came in dirt routes, though she was never really more than a claimer.\u00a0 Her foals have done slightly better than she ever did; her first foal, LV Excalibur<\/b> (Hansen<\/i>) was primarily a local dirt router in South Korea, but did pick up a local residency-restricted stakes win as well as some other local stakes placings, in dirt routes ranging anywhere from 8-16f.\u00a0 The only other real consistent runner, Hushwing Algo LV<\/b> (Algorithms<\/i>), was best in the 8-9f dirt range.\u00a0 The Anchor Down x Elusive Quality cross has been used 1 other time, but thus far the 3yo gelding has shown no real interest in racing.\u00a0 Renown Runner\u2019s dosage index is 3.44, with a 0.75 CD, indicating a preference for sprinting.<\/p>\n Expectations<\/span>: Renown Runner set the pace in her first race, but she\u2019s facing a much larger field here and might have trouble doing that again.\u00a0 The bloodlines aren\u2019t particularly strong here, with a bargain sire out of a hot allowance-winning mare, but that doesn\u2019t mean Renown Runner can\u2019t outrun her lineage.<\/p>\n Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n #7 – Stone of Orbos<\/b> (Henny Hughes x Priceless Gift [Cherokee Run x Dixie Union]) \u2013 Owned by golfteam3 <\/i>\u2013 12\/1<\/p>\n Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $27,000<\/p>\n Race History<\/span>: Stone of Orbos made her debut on April 19 in a 5f dirt MSW at Iowa.\u00a0 She broke a step slow in the field of 9, dropping 3 lengths back early, but got into the race late and came flying at the end, just barely getting up to win the photo by a nose.\u00a0 She earned a 67 SP for her win as the 4\/1 3rd<\/sup> choice.\u00a0 The 4th<\/sup> place runner from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 67 SP.\u00a0 Stone of Orbos will try to make things a little easier on herself this time as she stretches out to 6.5f.<\/p>\n Pedigree<\/span>: Henny Hughes, a multiple G1-winning sprinter, currently stands in Japan for 3.5MM Yen and was the #24 ranked Japanese sire in 2018.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop took a big leap over earlier crops, currently ranking #50 overall with 94 runners and 61 winners, winning at a 19% rate.\u00a0 2 of those runners have achieved stakes victories, one in a short sprint on dirt and one in a sprint on turf.\u00a0 Much like the real horse, Henny Hughes\u2019 sim foals are primarily dirt sprinters (78% of earnings on dirt, 74% in sprints).\u00a0 Stone of Orbos is the 6th<\/sup> foal (all fillies) from 12yo mare Priceless Gift, who won 9 of her 47 career races.\u00a0 Nearly all of those came on the dirt, and although she has a fair number of route efforts to her name, most of Priceless Gift\u2019s success came in dirt sprints.\u00a0 Her best races actually came on the off track.\u00a0 Her foals have done ok for themselves, with most of them turning out to be dirt sprinters like their mother.\u00a0 One of her foals, Four Houses <\/b>(Lion Heart<\/i>) is a multiple stakes placed filly at 6.5f on the dirt.\u00a0 Stone of Orbos\u2019s dosage index doesn\u2019t really tell us much, as there are only 2 chef-de-race point involved (he has a DI of 3.00 and a CD of 1.00).<\/p>\n Expectations<\/span>: Stone of Orbos took a somewhat surprising route to victory in her first race, as she dropped to the back of the pack in a 5f race and still came on to win.\u00a0 This filly really seems to have a nose for where the finish line is.\u00a0 Her speed figure may not be as high as some of the others in here, but she\u2019s got an interesting look to her and she should like the added distance today.<\/p>\n Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n #8 – Loose Cash<\/b> (Blame x A.P. Indy x Unbridled) \u2013 Owned by gliffo8 <\/i>– 5\/1<\/p>\n Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $33,720<\/p>\n Race History<\/span>: Loose Cash debuted at today\u2019s 6.5f dirt distance in Kentucky back on April 11, and did it in style.\u00a0 Off as the 4\/1 4th<\/sup> choice, Loose Cash dueled for the lead early and quickly put away the other challenger, opening up to lead by 1-1\/4 and then maintaining that lead through the finish.\u00a0 Loose Cash earned a strong 73 SP in the victory, though none of her competition from that race has backed her up (no one has finished better than 3rd<\/sup>, or cracked the 70 SP, in their follow-ups).\u00a0 Loose Cash will look to repeat that performance here.<\/p>\n Pedigree<\/span>: Blame, the 2010 Eclipse Award Older Male of the Year, was the #21 ranked US sire in 2018 and currently stands in Kentucky for $30,000.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #131 overall, with 41 winners from 84 runners winning at a 14.5% rate.\u00a0 His sim foals are primarily dirt routers (69% of earnings on dirt, 65% in routes), which aligns pretty well with his real world 7.52 AWD.\u00a0 The cream of the 3yo crop is multiple graded stakes winner Unbiased Question<\/b>, who unlike most of the other Blame foals is 5 for 5 in dirt sprints, including the graded stakes wins at 7f.\u00a0 There are 22 sim horses that share the Blame x A.P. Indy bloodlines over the past 5 years.\u00a0 Of those, 6 have found the winner\u2019s circle in stakes races, primarily in dirt routes (or longer), with 3 achieving graded stakes victories.\u00a0 However, most of the Blame x A.P. Indy horses are later bloomers \u2013 although half broke their maidens as a 2yo, only 2 of the 22 horses managed to win at the allowance level as a 2yo.\u00a0 Loose Cash\u2019s 2.73 dosage index and 0.64 CD show that much like the others with similar bloodlines, she might prefer longer distances than today\u2019s race.<\/p>\n Expectations<\/span>: Loose Cash already has the experience at this distance and put up one of the fastest prior races in the field.\u00a0 Coupled with her solid bloodlines, she\u2019ll be a force to be reckoned with.\u00a0 The one drawback is that she might prefer longer distances that today\u2019s.\u00a0 Granted, you won\u2019t get that for a 2yo at this point in the year, so Loose Cash really only has more room to grow as the races get longer.<\/p>\n Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n #9 – We Gotta Talk<\/b> (Curlin x A.P. Indy x Private Account) \u2013 Owned by 4stardave<\/i> \u2013 9\/2 (f<\/i>)<\/p>\n Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $33,720<\/p>\n Race History<\/span>: We Gotta Talk got her career off on the right foot first time out.\u00a0 Taking on a field of 10 in a 6.5f dirt MSW in Kentucky, We Gotta Talk battled the pace early, but when the other pacesetters couldn\u2019t keep up, she inherited the lead and never looked back.\u00a0 We Gotta Talk won by a clear length, earning a 71 SP, and none of her competitors really gained any ground on her late.\u00a0 The 4th<\/sup> place horse from that race took a huge leap next time out to win an MSW, though 2nd<\/sup> and 3rd<\/sup> from the race didn\u2019t see much of a jump next time out and are still looking to break their maidens.\u00a0 We Gotta Talk will try to make it 2 for 2 here.<\/p>\n Pedigree<\/span>: Curlin, the 2-time US Horse of the Year and #6 ranked US sire of 2018, currently stands for $175,000 in Kentucky.\u00a0 In the sim, his 3yos currently rank #26 overall, with 102 winners from 164 runners, victorious at a 16% rate.\u00a0 That crop includes 6 stakes winners, one of whom, Curlin’s Storm Cat<\/b>, took home the 7f Dell Computer Futurity-G1<\/span>\u00a0back in September 2018.\u00a0 Somewhat surprisingly, most of the stakes wins for those horses have come in dirt sprints, though one scored on the turf and two achieved success in dirt routes.\u00a0 Those last 2 line up with Curlin more generally in the sim, as he tends to through dirt routers (67% earnings on dirt, 67% in routes), which tracks with his real world 7.55f average winning distance.\u00a0 The Curlin x A.P. Indy cross has resulted in 55 runners over the past 5 years, 42 of which (76%) are winners.\u00a0 7 of those have earned stakes victories (though none have found Graded Stakes success just yet), with the majority of those pulling off the feat in dirt routes.\u00a0 41% of the Curlin x A.P. Indy 2yos that broke their maiden as a 2yo have gone on to win an allowance race as a 2yo.\u00a0 We Gotta Talk\u2019s dosage index of 3.29 and CD of 0.73 suggest that she might love sprinting here.<\/p>\n Expectations<\/span>: We Gotta Talk put together a strong debut, where she went off as the 3\/1 favorite and ran like it.\u00a0 She should be forwardly placed again here, and the bloodlines look like they produce solid 2yos.\u00a0 We Gotta Talk might be happier once the races stretch out even more, but repeating at 6.5f to start her career won\u2019t hurt.<\/p>\n Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n #10 \u2013 By Var The Best<\/b> (Var x Given Away Kash [Any Given Saturday x Dynaformer] \u2013 Owned by onamission<\/i> \u2013 8\/1<\/p>\n Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $27,000<\/p>\n Race History<\/span>: By Var The Best kicked off her career on April 13 in a 5f dirt MSW in Iowa.\u00a0 Taking on a field of 4, she sat last early, dropping 2-1\/2 lengths back before turning on the jets.\u00a0 But she turned them on without a problem and crossed the finish line \u00be length ahead, earning a 72 SP as the 6\/5 favorite.\u00a0 She\u2019ll stretch out some here as she tries to pick up win #2.<\/p>\n Pedigree<\/span>: Var, a G1 winning turf sprinter, was the #3 ranked South African sire in 2018.\u00a0 His sim foals are slowly starting the catch up to that, and his 2018 crop currently ranks #84 overall, with 54 winners from 72 runners, winning at an 18% rate.\u00a0 2 of those 54 have found stakes victories, one who is a stakes winner at 7.5f on the dirt and G3-placed at 8f, and the other who is a stakes winner at 5-6f on the dirt.\u00a0 His sim foals have primarily been sprinters (67% of earnings in sprints), with an ever-so-slight preference for dirt (56% on dirt).\u00a0 By Var The Best is the 5th<\/sup> foal from 10yo mare Given Away Kash.\u00a0 Given Away Kash won 6 of her 39 career races, but really excelled as a 2yo, winning 2 stakes races in dirt sprints in her 2nd<\/sup> and 3rd<\/sup> career starts.\u00a0 She also ended up as a stakes placed turf sprinter and turf routers, and actually put up her best speed figures at 8f on the dirt.\u00a0 Her first foal, 6yo mare Collecting Kash<\/b> (City Place<\/i>), inherited a fair amount of her mother\u2019s talent, and was 4-time stakes placed at 8.5-9.5f on both turf and dirt.\u00a0 The other founds haven\u2019t found quite as much hardware and instead preferring to dominate the claiming and starter ranks.\u00a0 Var has been bred to an Any Given Saturday mare 3 times in the past 5 years, though neither of the others have done much of note on the track.\u00a0 Unlike most of Var\u2019s foals, the dosage index of By Var The Best says that his best races will be much longer, with a 1.67 DI and a 0.38 CD.<\/p>\n Expectations<\/span>: By Var The Best found an easy spot in her first race but capitalized on it, putting up a strong speed figure for this field.\u00a0 The indications are that she likes to make a late run, so expect her to sit somewhere in the middle or further back.\u00a0 By Var The Best doesn\u2019t have the bluest of bloodlines, though it\u2019s also not quite the bargain bloodlines of some of the others in this field.\u00a0 There\u2019s potential here for a breakout 2yo campaign.<\/p>\n Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n #11 \u2013 Rowdy Cura Storm<\/b> (Curandero x Pomeroy Storm [Pomeroy x Storm Cat]) \u2013 Owned by simhorse16<\/i> \u2013 23\/1<\/p>\n Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $16,860<\/p>\n Race History<\/span>: The oddsmakers might not like Rowdy Cura Storm\u2019s debut, but it was a solid run nonetheless.\u00a0 Taking on a 5.5f dirt MSW in Ohio on April 17, Rowdy Cura Storm broke very slow and started 11th<\/sup> in a field of 13, dropping 2-1\/2 lengths back.\u00a0 But she came flying late, circling the entire field in time to get up to win by \u00bc length at 14\/1.\u00a0 The speed figure was only a 66, but the horse she edged out would come back to break her maiden next time out with a 71 SP.\u00a0 Rowdy Cura Storm looks to prove that her last race was no fluke as she stretches out a bit here.<\/p>\n Pedigree<\/span>: Curandero, an unraced son of Storm Cat out of a Forty Niner mare, currently stands in Texas for $1,000 and was the #57 ranked Texas sire in 2018.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop ranks #1,001 overall, but that\u2019s because it only contains 6 runners, 3 of which have won at an insane 26% rate.\u00a0 That number is buoyed by The Alamo<\/b>, who has been very successful in the local claiming ranks, mostly on the turf in the 7-8.5f range.\u00a0 Curandero does have 1 sim stakes winner in <\/b>4yo Fairhope<\/b>, a stakes winner and G3-placed colt at 7.5f on the dirt.\u00a0\u00a0 His foals at usually sprints (67% of earnings in sprints), but have a pretty even split on surfaces (52% on dirt, though that might owe to his few best foals being solid dirt horses while most others prefer turf).\u00a0 Rowdy Cura Storm is the 4th<\/sup> foal from 8yo mare Pomeroy Storm.\u00a0 Pomeroy Storm debuted as a 3yo and looked pretty good early, winning 3 of her first 4 races and 4 of her first 6 (including 2 local allowances), but she was never again able to find the winner\u2019s circle in her 31 career races.\u00a0 She proved to be a dirt runner, preferring anywhere from 6-8f.\u00a0 Her first 3 foals have all been dirt sprinters but none has been all that impressive, with only 1 combined allowance win in 42 total races.\u00a0 Rowdy Cura Storm\u2019s DI of 3.00 and CD of 0.75 put her right about average distances based on her bloodlines (which are 2×3 inbred to Storm Cat).<\/p>\n Expectations<\/span>: Rowdy Cura Storm is a bargain bred horse, and thus the oddsmakers may not like her, but her last race was a solid run.\u00a0 She gets another furlong here, which doesn\u2019t look like it will hurt her, and she showed a closing kick in her first race when coming from the back.\u00a0 But her speed in her first race was a little behind the best in here, and it looks like she\u2019ll need to take a step forward to really stamp herself as legit here.<\/p>\n Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n #12 \u2013 Vale Redoute<\/b> (Schoolyard Dreams x Redoustina [Redoute\u2019s Choice x Crafty Prospector]) \u2013 Owned by superfecta<\/i> \u2013 22\/1<\/p>\n Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $33,720<\/p>\n Race History<\/span>: Vale Redoute pulled off a bit of an upset in her debut.\u00a0 Going off at 13\/1 in a field of 9 in a 5f dirt MSW at Kentucky on April 4, Vale Redoute dropped back early, sitting about 2 lengths back.\u00a0 She started to move up as they reach the top of the stretch and then came on strong late, just getting up to win by \u00be length.\u00a0 The win earned her a 64 SP.\u00a0 Of note, the 2nd<\/sup> place horse from that race came back to break her maiden next time out with a 65 SP.\u00a0 Vale Redoute will try to extend that late run here as she stretches out to 6.5f.<\/p>\n Pedigree<\/span>: Schoolyard Dreams, a multiple graded stakes placed dirt miler, entered stud in Canada in 2015 and currently stands for $2,000.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #1,063, with 11 winners from 21 runners to date, winning at a 21.5% rate.\u00a0 The sim foals have largely been dirt sprinters (77% of earnings on dirt, 76% in sprints), and although none have achieved stakes victories yet (and only 4 have allowance wins), Flew Too High <\/b>has been by far the most successful foal thus far, finishing 2nd<\/sup> in The Rebel Yell-G3<\/span> at 8.5f on the dirt.\u00a0 Vale Redoute is the 5th<\/sup> foal from 13yo mare Redoustina, a 3-time stakes winner and G3-placed dirt sprinter.\u00a0 Redoustina did most of her damage in the 5.5-6.5f range (though she has a stakes win at 7.5f as well).\u00a0 Her foals, however, seem to be hit-or-miss, with an emphasis on the miss.\u00a0 The one exception to that is 6yo Creedoustina<\/b> (Jimmy Creed<\/i>), who managed to pick up a stakes win at 5.5f to end his 3yo campaign en route to 6 wins from 22 starts thus far.\u00a0 Vale Redoute\u2019s dosage index of 3.00 and CD of 0.75 put her right in the middle when it comes to preferred distances.<\/p>\n Expectations<\/span>: Vale Redoute has a solid backend to her pedigree, though her bargain sire is likely the reason she went off at 13\/1 in her debut and is 22\/1 today.\u00a0 But that doesn\u2019t mean that this filly can\u2019t be great.\u00a0 Her debut race was a solid one as she came from behind to take the victory, and the added distance here doesn\u2019t hurt.\u00a0 She may need to step it up a notch here in order to win, but it\u2019s not ridiculous to think that she could.<\/p>\n Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n #13 – Yankee Justine<\/b> (Justify x Yankee Cinnamon [Giant\u2019s Causeway x Tale of the Cat]) \u2013 Owned by Yankeetown<\/i> \u2013 9\/1<\/p>\n Race Record<\/span>: 2:1-0-1; $39,340<\/p>\n Race History<\/span>: The sponsor of this race, Yankee Justine is one of the few with more than 1 career race under her belt.\u00a0 Her debut came back on February 2 in a 4.5f dirt MSW at Kentucky.\u00a0 In a field of 11, she battled the pace early but couldn\u2019t quite keep up late, finishing 3rd<\/sup> and earning a 64 SP.\u00a0 But the race did her good, and Yankee Justine would go on to win her 2nd<\/sup> race, a 5.5f MSW on April 6, by 1 length after sitting just off the pace early.\u00a0 She earned a 69 SP in the win.\u00a0 The 2nd<\/sup> place horse in her most recent race would run 2nd<\/sup> again next time out at the MSW level.\u00a0 Yankee Justine stretches out again to 6.5f here.<\/p>\n Pedigree<\/span>: Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown Winner and Eclipse Award Horse of the Year, currently stands in Kentucky for $150,000.\u00a0 His 2yo sim crop currently ranks #3 overall, with 27 winners from 88 runners to date.\u00a0 Almost all of the runs have come on dirt, with one colt having picked up a Blazing Saddles residency-restricted stakes win to kick off his career (and most recently was 4th<\/sup> in the Vermont BB Juvenile-G2<\/span> at 6f on the dirt). Yankee Justine is the first foal from 4yo early-retired mare Yankee Cinnamon.\u00a0 Yankee Cinnamon was a stakes winner who earned 10 wins in her 20 race career.\u00a0 Her one stakes win came in career start #2, where she took home a 5f dirt 2yo stakes.\u00a0 But most of her career was spent at the hot allowance level, with the slight majority of her races and wins coming in turf routes, but her fastest speed figures coming in dirt routes.\u00a0 Only 2 of the 4 foals by Justify out of a Giant\u2019s Causeway mare have hit the track yet, and Yankee Justine is the only one with a win.\u00a0 With a dosage index of 1.67 and a CD of 0.38, Yankee Justice might be biding her time for longer races later in the year.<\/p>\n Expectations<\/span>: Yankee Justine\u2019s first 2 races have seen her sit just off the pacesetters early, and it wouldn\u2019t be surprising to see her forwardly placed here.\u00a0 For a sire pedigree line, she is quite the blue blood, and one would expect her to get better as the distances increase. But I\u2019m not sure the dam was quite as strong as she first looks on paper (though the dam\u2019s line has a G3 winner and a G3-placed horse as the granddam and great-granddam, so there\u2019s some promise in the bloodlines.<\/p>\n Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n #14 \u2013 Lady Tornado<\/b> (Toronado x Lady Grinning Soul [Palace Malice x Dansili (GB)]) \u2013 Owned by leeleea21<\/i> \u2013 23\/1<\/p>\n Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $10,680<\/p>\n Race History<\/span>: Lady Tornado is the only filly in this field to have debuted at the claiming level. She kicked off her career on April 6 in a $20,000 MCL at 5.5f on the dirt in Illinois.\u00a0 Running against a field of 4, she went off as the co-favorite at even money, and took off for the lead, never looking back.\u00a0 She set the early pace and then drew off to win by 1-1\/4 lengths, with a 57 SP.\u00a0 Of note, the 2nd<\/sup> and 4th<\/sup> place horses in that race came back at the MCL level next time out and finished 3rd<\/sup> and 5th<\/sup>, respectively.\u00a0 Lady Tornado makes the jump to the allowance level here to see if she can compete with the big girls.<\/p>\n Pedigree<\/span>: Toronado, a multiple G1 winning turf miler in the UK, was the #162 ranked French sire in 2018 (it may have been his first crop) and currently stands in France for $12,000.\u00a0 Toronado\u2019s 2018 sim crop is currently ranked #855 overall, with 20 winners from 37 runners winning at a 9% rate.\u00a0 None of those horses has had stakes success yet, though one was G2-placed as a 2yo in a turf mile.\u00a0 His sim foals significantly favor the turf (78% of earnings on turf), with a pretty even sprint\/route split (53% in routes).\u00a0 Lady Tornado is the second foal from 5yo mare Lady Grinning Soul, who won 2 of 26 races in her career.\u00a0 Her maiden win was at 8f on the turf in a hot race, and her only other win was in a $20K claimer at 8.5f. Most of her races came on the turf in the 7-8.5f range, though she did her best running around the mile.\u00a0 Her first foal, 3yo Brody\u2019s Grinning<\/b> (Brody\u2019s Cause<\/i>), seemed to take a little while to get going but now has a 6:1-1-4 record, starting to excel as a deep closer as he stretches out.\u00a0 Lady Tornado\u2019s dosage index of 1.22 and CD of 0.20 indicate a preference for longer races.<\/p>\n Expectations<\/span>: Lady Tornado wasn\u2019t the most highly touted 2yo to debut and doesn\u2019t have the greatest bloodlines, but she did what she needed to do in her debut effort.\u00a0 She went unclaimed so her owner has decided to see if she has the ability to compete at a higher level.\u00a0 The speed figure from her debut is well below the others in this field, but the race setup didn\u2019t require her to work any harder, so we expect to see some improvement here.\u00a0 The only question is whether it will be enough improvement.<\/p>\n Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n —<\/p>\n That\u2019s your field of 14 for this first 2yo Future Stars Series race.\u00a0 Normally, I\u2019d give my predictions, but I have no clue how to handicap a 2yo race where 11 of the 14 horses have only run once.\u00a0 So my completely arbitrary predictions are: (1) Loose Cash<\/b>; (2) Renown Runner<\/b>; (3) We Gotta Talk<\/b>.\u00a0 Good luck!<\/p>\n Other 2yo Races To Watch This Weekend:<\/span><\/p>\n 1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Berkshire-ENG \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 6.5f<\/a><\/p>\n 2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 New York \u2013 URC-Restricted Hopes and Dreams Alw 1 @ 6.5f<\/a><\/p>\n 3)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 New York \u2013 URC-Restricted Hopes and Dreams Alw 1 @ 6.5f-T<\/a><\/p>\n 4)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Texas \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 6.5f-T (Fillies)<\/a><\/p>\n