{"id":48970,"date":"2019-05-10T18:35:21","date_gmt":"2019-05-10T22:35:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=48970"},"modified":"2019-05-10T17:36:03","modified_gmt":"2019-05-10T21:36:03","slug":"future-stars-series-12-colts-take-on-a-7f-turf-nw3l-in-ireland","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=48970","title":{"rendered":"Future Stars Series – 12 Colts Take On A 7F Turf NW3L In Ireland"},"content":{"rendered":"

First, a quick recap of last week\u2019s race. My prediction was pretty accurate early on, as Tapendereya <\/b>and Discomfortable<\/b> battled for the early lead, with Tapendereya sticking a nose in front.\u00a0 I likewise predicted that the speed duel up front would creating an opening for one of the closers to sneak through.\u00a0 Unfortunately, I picked the wrong one, as it was OG Tapit Cat <\/b>($16.60) that came flying late, picking off horses one by one.\u00a0 Eventually he reached the frontrunners and blew past them like they were standing still, drawing off to win by 1-3\/4 and earning a 107 SP.\u00a0 The pace duel didn\u2019t seem to distract the 2 frontrunners much though, as Discomfortable<\/b> managed to outrun Tapendereya for 2nd<\/sup>, while Tapendereya <\/b>had a big enough margin to hang on for 3rd<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

This week, the Future Stars Series heads back to the Emerald Isle, Ireland, for a NW3L Allowance for turf sprinters, going 7 furlongs.\u00a0 The field of 12 is:<\/p>\n

#1 – Blanco Reef<\/b> (Cape Blanco (IRE) x Lease a Wire [Soft Falling Rain x Speightstown]) \u2013 Owned by atw9<\/i> \u2013 7\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 10:2-1-3; $82,566<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Blanco Reef began his career in MSWs, but made the jump to winners and broke his maiden in a local NW1y allowance in his 4th<\/sup> career start.\u00a0 From there, it was an ambitious jump to a G3 at 9f on the turf (after having never run farther than 7f), but the effort didn\u2019t go well, so Blanco Reef dropped back down to the local NW2L level.\u00a0 There, his first try at 8f saw him tire to 3rd<\/sup>, so he cut back to 7f where he broke through with a 1-3\/4 length victory and an 87 SP.\u00a0 He kicked off his 2019 campaign in a 7f turf stakes effort, where he set the pace early but was outrun and finished 4th<\/sup> of 5.\u00a0 From there, Blanco Reef dropped back down in class to the NW3L level, and he\u2019s been there for the last 2 races, each time setting the pace early before being outrun late, first at 6f and then at 6.5f.\u00a0 His most recent race, the 6.5f effort, saw him hold on to second place, earning a career high 94 SP.\u00a0 Blanco Reef will stretch back out slightly here, to the distance where he\u2019s won twice.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Cape Blanco, the 2010 Irish 3yo of the year and 2011 Turf Eclipse Award winner, currently stands in Japan, though his most recent real life crop is from his US-siring days, where he ranked #137 in 2018.\u00a0 In the sim, his 3yo crop currently ranks #124 overall, with 32 winners from 53 runners scoring at a 17% rate.\u00a0 The big star from the crop is Momentary Triumph<\/b>, a 3-time graded placed filly that won The Diana Trail-G2<\/span>\u00a0at 11f on the turf in her last race by 3-1\/4 lengths.\u00a0<\/b>Cape Blanco’s sim foals are much like their sire in running style, as they typically prefer turf routes (75% on turf, 62% in routes).\u00a0 The distance is a little higher than his 7.74 real life AWD, though that distance may be suppressed by having US runners (the number may increase once his first Japanese crop gets underway).\u00a0 Blanco Reef is the only foal from 6yo he-mare Lease A Wire, a winner of 8 races in 30 career starts.\u00a0 Among those 8 wins are 3 stakes victories, all occurring in turf sprints in the 5.5f-6f range.\u00a0 Blanco Reef takes after his \u201cmother\u201d, who was a super-sprinter that had a ton of speed and liked to use it early, with most of his wins coming when he was on the lead or fighting for it.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Blanco Reef has a ton of speed and wants to use it early.\u00a0 He has been fast enough to set the pace at the stakes (and even the route graded stakes) levels, and he set a blistering pace in each of his last 2 starts, at 6f and 6.5f.\u00a0 So expect to see Blanco Reef on the front end here.\u00a0 The real question is whether he can carry that speed over 7 furlongs.\u00a0 He\u2019s shown the ability to win at this distance before, but his last few races have shown signs of tiring late, and he certainly won\u2019t get an easy pace today.\u00a0 Still, he\u2019s a solid horse and a possible exotics contender.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

#2 – French Barbara<\/b> (Siyouni x Diesis x Montjeu) \u2013 Owned by musclebarn<\/i> \u2013 29\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 8:2-1-0; $33,936<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: French Barbara has never quite lived up to the aspirations of his owner through 8 career starts, most of them occurring in turf sprints.\u00a0 After breaking his maiden in a 4.5f dirt hot race back in February 2018, he made the switch to turf and hasn\u2019t looked back since.\u00a0 However, his only success in this type of race was in career race #3, when he went off at even money in a 4 horse NW1x at 4.5f on the turf and stuck his head in front at the wire.\u00a0 His only notable race since then was 2 starts back, his 2019 debut, where French Barbara again took on a 4 horse field, this time at 7f on a yielding turf course, and popped a career high 83 SP while running 2nd<\/sup> the entire way around the track.\u00a0 French Barbara comes into this race off of a last place finish in a field of 7 at 7.5f, where he finished behind today\u2019s rivals Petah Tikva <\/i><\/b>(2nd<\/sup> \u2013 96 SP) and Hempriggs <\/i><\/b>(6th<\/sup> \u2013 84 SP), earning a 79 SP (he also ran 12th<\/sup> in a 6.5f turf race against Turns and Burns<\/i><\/b> (7th<\/sup>) back in November 2018).<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Siyouni, the #19 ranked European sire in 2018, was a G1-winning turf miler in France and currently stands there for $100,000.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop is currently his best sim class, owing to a solid stud career thus far, and the crop currently ranks #49 overall, with 61 winners from 96 runners to date, winning at a 19.5% rate.\u00a0 Among the foals are 10 stakes winners (4 graded stakes), led by 2018 Breeders’ Bowl Filly Juvy Turf-G1<\/span>\u00a0(and multiple-G1) winner Light So Bright<\/b>.\u00a0 Siyouni’s sim foals heavily favor turf, with 79% of earnings coming on turf, and are pretty evenly split between sprinters and routers (53% sprints), which lines up with his real life racing preference and his real AWD of 7.86.\u00a0 Most of his top sim 3yos have excelled at the mile distance thus far, though a couple have sprinted well and one G3 winner has found success at 10.5f, with all of those successes coming on the turf.\u00a0 The Siyouni x Diesis cross has been used twice in the sim in the past 4 years.\u00a0 The other instance was with 6yo retired mare Galactic Quest<\/b>, whose sole win in 12 career starts was in a $12.5K maiden claimer at 8f on the turf.\u00a0 The Montjeu DDS pairing is a little more common for Siyouni in the sim, with 10 3yos or older, though only 1 of those has won an allowance-level race to date (all in fields of 4 or local allowances).<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: French Barbara\u2019s past successes have come when battling for the lead, but it\u2019s not a spot that he seems likely to get in this race.\u00a0 More likely, he\u2019ll sit midpack or towards the back in this race.\u00a0 From there, it\u2019s just a question of whether he can close ground in the race, but he looks a little overmatched here.\u00a0 Pass.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n

#3 – The Discovery<\/b> (Oasis Dream (GB) x Perplex [Kingmambo x Dehere]) \u2013 Owned by grammy<\/i> \u2013 9\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 8:2-3-0; $84,332<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: It took a bit for The Discovery to snap into his grove, but he finally did it when breaking his maiden in his 4th<\/sup> career race, back in October 2018 at 6f.\u00a0 2 weeks later, he took a shot at a 6.5f stakes on the yielding turf, but came up empty and finished 7th<\/sup>.\u00a0 Dropping back to a local NW2L allowance at 7.5f-T next time out, The Discovery capitalized, stalking the pace early and then moving late to win by 1-1\/4 lengths.\u00a0 He has been more patiently raced in 2019 though, with only 2 races thus far.\u00a0 The first, at 6f, saw him use that same stalking style and move late, but he ran out of track and finished 2nd<\/sup>, earning a career high 91 SP.\u00a0 He stretched out significantly for his most recent race, back in early March, when he took on a local NW3L at 9.5f on the turf, setting an easy pace early but getting caught in the stretch and finishing 2nd<\/sup> with a 90 SP.\u00a0 The Discovery cuts back to sprinting here as he tries to regain his place in the winner\u2019s circle.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Oasis Dream, the 2002 champion 2yo in England and the #28 ranked European sire in 2018, was a multiple-G1 winning sprinter in his career and currently stands in England for $30,000.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop is a little better than the real life counterpart, as they rank #12 overall, with 103 winners from 158 runners to date, winning at an 18% rate.\u00a0 Among those horses are 11 stakes winners (4 graded stakes winners), most of whom have hit their groove in turf miles.\u00a0 Oasis Dream’s sim foals are turf lovers (72% of earnings on turf), with a pretty even split in distances (52% routes), in line with his real world 7.55 AWD.\u00a0 The Discovery is the 6th<\/sup> of 7 foals from 15yo mare Perplex, winner of 5 races in her 14 race career.\u00a0 4 of those wins came in her first 4 career starts, all at 8f on the dirt, which is where she spent most of her career.\u00a0 However, her final 2 career races, at 7f and 9f, were both on the turf and they showed some potential on the sod as well (her final race was a 4 length victory at 9f on the turf).\u00a0 Her foals, meanwhile, haven\u2019t shown a consistent preference to one type of race.\u00a0 Most of her foals have won sprint races, but the fastest speed figures have largely come in routes.\u00a0 Two of her foals, Pslambeforthestorm<\/b> (Dalakhani<\/i>) and Perplexo<\/b> (Pyro<\/i>) are stakes placed, one in a 7f dirt sprint and one in a 8.5f turf route.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: The Discovery likes to sit just off the pace, which should be a good spot here given the speed duel up front.\u00a0 From there, he has shown in the past that he can make some moves and catch those on the lead.\u00a0 What\u2019s troubling in his past races is when that move occurs.\u00a0 His two wins have seen him take the lead before the stretch, possibly due to horses tiring on the lead.\u00a0 I\u2019m not sure if he\u2019s gonna be able to get the lead that quickly in this race.\u00a0 If he can, then he\u2019s dangerous; only once in his career has he ever ceded a lead that he\u2019s been given, and that was at 9.5f.\u00a0 The question is whether he\u2019ll ever be able to get there.\u00a0 It\u2019s possible.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

#4 – Dawn De Vida<\/b> (Dawn Approach (IRE) x Pan De Vida [Monsun x Miswaki]) \u2013 Owned by gcliffo22<\/i> \u2013 8\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 8:2-5-0; $120,466<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Dawn De Vida always seems to show up, but he\u2019s also come down with a case of seconditis in his career, with 5 2nds in 8 starts.\u00a0 4 of those came in the MSW ranks, all at 5-6.5f on the turf, as he continued to run close but never quite snag the lead.\u00a0 That changed in September 2018 in career race #5, however, as he was able to stalk the pace and finally was able to run down the leads, pulling off to win by 1-3\/4 lengths.\u00a0 After closing out 2018 with his only off-the-board finish, Dawn De Vida has looked like a new horse in 2019.\u00a0 His season debut came at 6.5 furlongs on the turf, where he dropped slightly further off the pace than normal but gained ground late, finishing 2nd<\/sup> by 1-1\/4 lengths.\u00a0 But stretching out to 7.5f-T in his last race was a real boost, as he sat midpack early and came storming late, destroying the field and earning a career high 98 SP.\u00a0 Dawn De Vida will cut back slightly to 7f here as he tries to continue his successful 3yo campaign.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Dawn Approach (IRE), the #80 ranked European sire in 2018, currently stands in Ireland for $15,000 and was the winner of the 2013 2000 Guineas and was a multiple G1-winner at 7-8f.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #56 overall, with 106 runners and 66 winners to date, winning at a 16% rate (a little lower than his 20% average).\u00a0 Among those winners are 6 stakes winners, one of whom, Mourning Rainbow<\/b>, has found graded stakes victory at 6f on the turf.\u00a0 Dawn Approach’s sim foals are typically turf runners (75% of earnings on turf), and evenly split between sprints and routes (51% in routes), in line with his 7.83 AWD, though the top horses from his 3yo crop have been turf sprinters thus far.\u00a0 Dawn De Vida is the 4th<\/sup> of 5 foals from 9yo mare Pan De Vida, a winner of 6 races from 19 career starts.\u00a0 Although she never quite reached the winner\u2019s circle at the stakes level, she was 2-time stakes placed, once in a turf sprint and once in a dirt sprint.\u00a0 She bounced back and forth on the turf and dirt, showing abilities on both, with 4 of her wins and her fastest speeds coming on dirt, but never finishing worse than 5th<\/sup> on the turf (including 4 stakes tries).\u00a0 Her foals have followed in her sprinting footsteps, with her first foal likewise being solid on both turf and dirt and her other allowance winner finding the turf more to her liking.\u00a0 Dawn Approach has been bred to a Monsun mare 12 times in the past 4 years, with limited success to date.\u00a0 Not including Dawn De Vida, only 1 of the other 10 3yo+ horses has picked up an allowance-level win, scoring 3 times in sprints (one on each of the 3 surfaces).\u00a0 Only 5 of the 10 have broken their maidens, though that may be a symptom of each of the maiden 5 having 5 or fewer starts under their belts and each having raced better in routes than sprints.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Dawn De Vida has been pretty consistent in his running style over his past few races, and there\u2019s no reason to think that would change here.\u00a0 Expect to see him sit midpack, about 3-5 lengths off of the pacesetters.\u00a0 From there, it\u2019s a matter of making his move at the right time.\u00a0 It seems to take him a little longer to get going than others, but when he does finally start moving, look out.\u00a0 The question is whether 7f will be long enough for him to get into that next gear.\u00a0 If he can, he\u2019s a strong contender, but he might ultimately prove to be a router.\u00a0 Still, one to consider here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#5 – Magic Carpet Vibes<\/b> (Oasis Dream (GB) x Psychotic Vibes [Teofilo x Kingmambo]) \u2013 Owned by 4horsemen<\/i> \u2013 9\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 6:2-3-1; $76,285<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Magic Carpet Vibes has been very consistent, never finishing off the board in 6 career races.\u00a0 Two of those starts have been wins, both coming at 4.5f on the turf when he was a 2yo.\u00a0 Since then, he\u2019s been on an \u201cevery two months\u201d schedule.\u00a0 Magic Carpet Vibes kicked off his 3yo campaign by stretching out to an 8f turf race for the first time, and after sitting 2nd<\/sup> in a field of 5 early, he raced pretty evenly throughout but never showed the forward momentum that he had in his prior sprints, and he finished 3rd<\/sup>, earning an 86 SP, his best turf speed to date.\u00a0 He got 2 months off leading into his most recent race, as he repeated at 8f but this time headed over to the polytrack for a local NW3L in Newmarket.\u00a0 He seemed to take to the polytrack pretty well, as he stalked the pace early and moved in tandem with the other stalker in the race.\u00a0 Unfortunately, that other stalker was ahead of Magic Carpet Vibes when they started their moves, and it ended up the same way with Magic Carpet Vibes finishing 2nd<\/sup>, but he earned a career high 96 SP in the process.\u00a0 Magic Carpet Vibes gets another 2+ months off here as he heads back to the turf and cuts back in distance to try and find the winner\u2019s circle.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Oasis Dream\u2019s information can be found under The Discovery<\/i><\/b> above.\u00a0 Magic Carpet Vibes is the first foal from 3yo mare Psychotic Vibes, a winner of 4 races in her 21 race career.\u00a0 3 of those wins were at the allowance level, though only one came against non-local horses, but this $200K earner did a lot of damage in her career, hitting the board in 16 of those 25 starts.\u00a0 She did most of that damage anywhere from 7f-9f on the turf, though her 3 turf wins and her fastest speed figures all came while routing.\u00a0 Magic Carpet Vibes is the only foal by Oasis Dream from a Teofilo mare in the past 4 years, but the Oasis Dream cross has been common for Galileo, Teofilo\u2019s sire, and the cross has produced an assortment of different runners, showing a very slight preference for routing.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Magic Carpet Vibes is likely to try and stalk the pace here, sitting a couple of lengths back early.\u00a0 That should set up well for him in this race.\u00a0 But the real question is what to make of his most recent run.\u00a0 Was this a sign of 3yo maturity, coming, as it did, in his 2nd<\/sup> career start as a 3yo?\u00a0 Or was it possibly a sign that Magic Carpet Vibes prefers the polytrack?\u00a0 It\u2019s interesting to see him come back to the turf here after such a successful poly run, so his owner must think it\u2019s a sign of maturity.\u00a0 If it is, watch out here.\u00a0 But I\u2019m a little skeptical.\u00a0 Bet with caution.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

#6 – The Middle Man<\/b> (Teofilo (IRE) x The Mediator (Symboli Kris S x Storm Bird) \u2013 Owned by liam20<\/i> \u2013 6\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 7:2-3-0; $92,051<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: The sponsor of this race, The Middle Man comes into this race riding a bit of a hot streak.\u00a0 After struggling in his first 2 sprints as a 2yo, he stretched out to turf routes and found his comfort zone at the front of the pack, setting the pace.\u00a0 Unfortunately, he could never quite break through the maiden ranks, finishing 2nd<\/sup> each time (by a combined 2 lengths).\u00a0 But The Middle Man saw a huge improvement from 2yo to 3yo.\u00a0 In his 3yo debut 2 starts back, he dropped back from routing to a 7f turf MSW here in Ireland.\u00a0 He flashed some insane early speed in that race, opening up over 5 lengths on the field and then withstanding a late charge to win by a head, earning a career high 97 SP.\u00a0 The 3rd<\/sup> place horse in that race, who finished 5-1\/4 lengths back in 3rd<\/sup>, would stretch out and break his maiden next time out with a 102 SP.\u00a0 Going up against winners in his most recent race, The Middle Man again showed early speed and none of his competitors ever stood a chance, as he opened up over 3-1\/2 lengths before easing to a 2 length victory, earning a 96 SP.\u00a0 He\u2019ll try to make it 3 in a row today.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Teofilo, the 2006 Champion European 2yo Colt, was the #4 ranked European sire of 2018 and currently stands for $40,000 in Ireland.\u00a0 His sim crop hasn’t quite caught up to his real life progeny, but the 2018 class is a solidly-ranked #43 overall, with 72 winners from 110 runners, winning at a 20% rate (above his 16.5% average).\u00a0 The class includes 7 stakes winners to date, 3 of whom have found graded success (all in 9f-T G3 races), with the other 4 finding success while sprinting.\u00a0 Teofilo’s sim foals heavily favor the turf, with 78% of earnings on the turf, and prefer routes as well (65% in routes), matching his real life 9.77 AWD.\u00a0 The Middle Man is the 3rd<\/sup> of 4 foals from 7yo mare The Mediator, a G2-winning router.\u00a0 The Mediator won 7 of her 19 career starts, including the 2015 Full Moon Handicap-G2<\/span> at 9f on the turf, and added 3 additional stakes placings (1 G3) to that record.\u00a0 Although she did most of her running, and earned most of her wins, in turf routes, her 2 fastest speed figures actually came in dirt routes (though she won neither race).\u00a0 Her foals to date have both seen some success, though not to her level, with both older siblings to The Middle Man earning multiple allowance wins, one in turf routes and one in dirt routes.\u00a0 Symboli Kris S mares have been sent to Teofilo 4 times in the past 4 years; 2 of the other 3 resulting foals have earned allowance wins, with both of those horses preferring routes (one on the turf, one on the dirt).<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: The Middle Man is a burner who wants to take the lead and never look back.\u00a0 Only once in his 7 race career has he not had the early lead (he was \u00bd length back early in that race), and it was, by far, his worst performance to date.\u00a0 So expect The Middle Man to be out in front early.\u00a0 From there, it\u2019s just a question of the pace setup in the race.\u00a0 He\u2019s got the speed, but he won\u2019t be alone out there, so the question is whether he\u2019ll burn himself out early.\u00a0 But he\u2019s shown the ability to run quickly and hold off late charges before, so we\u2019ll see if he can do it again.\u00a0 A top candidiate.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#7 \u2013 Turns and Burns<\/b> (Star Turn (AUS) x Just Sebring It [Sebring x Portland Player (NZ) \u2013 Owned by lindsypark<\/i> \u2013 16\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 6:2-0-1; $53,360<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Turns and Burns has been slumping a bit recently.\u00a0 After taking 2 of his first 3 starts, both at today\u2019s 7f turf distance, Turns and Burns has failed to hit the board in his last 3 starts.\u00a0 He set the pace and never looked back in his two victories, but failed to get the lead in his 4th<\/sup> career race, a NW3L allowance, and then faded to 7th<\/sup> (though he defeated today\u2019s rival, French Barbara<\/i><\/b>, who finished 12th<\/sup>).\u00a0 He took 3 months off and then made his 2019 debut in a 6 horse stakes race, at 5.5f on the turf, and managed to grab the lead early but was no match for the field off of the layoff, finishing last.\u00a0 He stretched out to 8f for his most recent race, where he dueled for the lead early and briefly stuck a nose in front, but then couldn\u2019t hang onto that lead and faded to 7th<\/sup>, 10-1\/2 lengths back.\u00a0 The race earned his a career high 89 SP, however, showing an improvement over his 2yo days.\u00a0 Turns and Burns cuts back to 7f here, where he\u2019s 2 for 2 lifetime, to try and recapture the old magic.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Star Turn, a multiple graded stakes winning sprinter and son of Star Witness, entered stud in Australia in 2017 and currently stands for $22,000.\u00a0 His freshman sim crop from 2018 currently ranks #172 overall, with 26 winners from 55 runners to date, winning at a 20% rate.\u00a0 The number of runners may be low, but he already has 3 stakes winners from his first crop, all in turf sprints.\u00a0 That\u2019s where most of his runners have win to date, with 84% of his earnings on turf and 91% in sprints (which will likely come down as 3yos stretch out, though it should still strongly favor sprints).\u00a0 Turns and Burns is the 5th<\/sup> of 6 foals from 11yo mare Just Sebring It, a two-time stakes placed mare who won 4 of her 27 career starts.\u00a0 She spent all but 2 of her career races in turf sprints, including both of her stakes placings and all 4 of her wins, with her best efforts coming in the shorter 5-6.5f sprints.\u00a0 Her foals haven\u2019t done much to date, with Turns and Burns\u2019 5 siblings going a combined 5 for 40 lifetime.\u00a0 2 of those have picked up allowance wins, one in a turf sprint and one in a dirt sprint.\u00a0 This is the only time that Star Turn has been bred to a Sebring mare in the past 4 years, and only 1 other horse has been bred to the More Than Ready DS line, a 2yo out of a Verrazano mare that ran 2nd<\/sup> in her debut.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Turns and Burns wants to be on the front end, and would set the pace if he could.\u00a0 In this race though, there\u2019s a ton of pace, and my suspicion is that Turns and Burns is not quite as fast out of the gate as a couple of other pacesetters in this field.\u00a0 He\u2019ll certainly push the front, but he may have to settle behind horses, which has not been a favorite place of his in the past.\u00a0 Siding elsewhere.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

#8 \u2013 Petah Tikva<\/b> (Dansili (GB) x Sunday Silence x Blushing Groom) \u2013 Owned by harrylanexp7<\/i> \u2013 7\/2 (f<\/i>)<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 3:2-1-0; $53,955<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: The most lightly race horse in the field, Petah Tikva also goes off as your post-time favorite.\u00a0 The reason for that is his 3 strong performances to date.\u00a0 He debuted in December 2018 in a 6.5f turf MSW and stalked the pace early before pummeling them late, drawing off to win by 1-1\/2 and earning an 88 SP.\u00a0 He came back in late January to a local NW2L at 7f on the Newmarket turf, where he put on a show, \u00a0sitting just off the pace early back making an early move to grab the lead and never looking back.\u00a0 That win earned him a career-high and field-high 99 SP, but even more impressive may be that the second place horse would go on to take his own allowance race next time out, and the 3rd<\/sup> place horse would come back to pick up a stakes win in his next start, indicating some solid competition.\u00a0 Petah Tikva\u2019s most recent race, a 7.5f turf NW3L, saw another stalker get the first move on him and he had to settle for 2nd<\/sup>, earning a 96 SP, but the winner of that race would come back to win a NW4L next time out with a 101 SP.\u00a0 Petah Tikva also defeated today\u2019s rivals Hampriggs <\/i><\/b>(6th<\/sup>) and French Barbara <\/i><\/b>(7th<\/sup>) in that race.\u00a0 Petah Tikva cuts back \u00bd furlong here as he tries to make it 3 for 4 in his career.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Dansili, who was pensioned in 2018, was the #23 ranked EU sire in 2018.\u00a0 His final sim crop, the 2018 class, currently ranks #15 in the sim, with 134 winners from 233 runners to date (winning at a 21% rate).\u00a0 Dansili\u2019s sim foals have a strong preference for turf, with 74% of earnings on turf, but are evenly split 50\/50 in distances (a little different than his real life foals, as Dansili has a real life AWD of 9.2).\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop includes only 1 graded stakes winner among 5 total stakes winners, but that 1 graded stakes winner is 4-time G1 winner (and #1 ranked 3yo turf sprinter) Battlefield Hero<\/b>, who along with the bulk of Dansili\u2019s 2018 class has shown a preference for sprinting on the turf.\u00a0 It\u2019s not very often that you see Dansili, a big time turf sire, paired with Sunday Silence, usually thought of as a dirt distance horse, especially in a scratch bred.\u00a0 But it\u2019s not completely unheard of; the Dansili x Sunday Silence combo was used 1 other time in the past 4 years.\u00a0 That horse, 3yo Party On Saturday<\/b>, has unfortunately not done much in his 7 career starts, as he\u2019s still trying to break through his maiden.\u00a0 The Blushing Groom DDS has been slightly more popular with Dansili, having been used 11 times in the past 4 years, with 1 stakes winner among them (whose stakes win came at 10.5f on the dirt, though her fastest races were actually in the 8-9f turf range).<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Petah Tikva may be the most lightly raced in the field, but he\u2019s also the favorite for a reason.\u00a0 The pace in this race sets up perfectly for his stalking style, as the duel up front has the chance to break down and there aren\u2019t many closers in the field.\u00a0 He has shown in his 3 races that he can hang with some high quality runners, and so he shouldn\u2019t be intimidated by some of the accolades from this field.\u00a0 The top choice.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#9 – Hempriggs<\/b> (Almazor x My Kitty Dancer [Kitten\u2019s Joy x Danehill Dancer]) \u2013 Owned by \u00adbperry7<\/i> \u2013 17\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 19:2-3-2; $55,786<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: The most experienced runner in today\u2019s field, this will be start #20 for Hempriggs, who has generally campaigned on a 2-3 week schedule since being acquired back in September 2018.\u00a0 He has gone winless in 9 starts since taking up residence for his current owner.\u00a0 The previous owner found success for Hempriggs at the claiming level, as he broke his maiden at 5.5f in a $35K maiden claimer and would go on to post a record of 2-2-1 in 5 turf sprint claimers for his prior owner.\u00a0 After claiming race #3, Hempriggs was gelded by his former owner.\u00a0 Following the acquisition, bperry<\/i> moved Hempriggs up to the allowance level, but to limited success.\u00a0 His best race to date came 3 starts back, in a 9.5f local turf NW3L in Deauville (FR), where he earned a career high 86 SP while stalking the pace early and then tiring to finish 5th<\/sup>. \u00a02 starts back, in a 7.5f turf NW3L, he finished 6th<\/sup> with an 84 SP, trailing today\u2019s rival Petah Tikva<\/i> <\/b>(2nd<\/sup>) but defeating rival French Barbara<\/i><\/b> (7th<\/sup>).\u00a0 Hempriggs comes into this race off of a last place finish in a 7f NW3L, where he tired to finish 12 lengths behind the winners, earning a 76 SP.\u00a0 He\u2019ll try to bounce back here.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Almanzor, the 2016 Cartier Champion 3yo Colt, was a dominant European horse at 10f on the turf and entered stud in France 2018, where he stands for $35,000.\u00a0 In the sim, his freshman crop is currently ranked #107 overall, with 83 runners and 49 winners to date, succeeding at a 15.5% rate.\u00a0 Four of his foals have won stakes races thus far (2 in turf routes, 1 in a turf sprint, and 1 in a dirt sprint), with one of those, Manzored<\/b>, picking up a G3 victory in a turf mile. <\/b>His sim foals have preferred the turf thus far, with 77% of earnings on turf, while it\u2019s still a little early to tell whether he will throw more sprinters or routers.\u00a0 Hempriggs is the first foal from 5yo mare My Kitty Dancer.\u00a0 My Kitty Dancer put ended up with only 1 win in 15 career starts, but put up her best career start in her 2nd<\/sup> to last race, a 9.5f NW2L allowance on the turf, where she showed a closing kick that she had never previously demonstrated and finished 3rd<\/sup>, proving that routing was her best distance (she had some ability on dirt as well, though not the same closing speed).\u00a0 Almanzor has only been sent to a Kitten\u2019s Joy mare one other time, resulting in 3yo Kiss on the Deck<\/b>, who has just started to find his stride as a pace-setting turf router (though through 7 starts, he only has a local MSW to show for his efforts).<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Hempriggs is one who may sit midpack, or slightly closer, early on, but doesn\u2019t really seem to show any interest in being up on the pace.\u00a0 He may be taking after his mother in that regard, but up until now, he hasn\u2019t really shown the same closing kick that she demonstrated late in her career.\u00a0 What he has seemed to do in his career is run evenly, but the 7f distance may not help him here.\u00a0 He may be one that prefers to run longer, as he seems to have some stamina that others might be lacking.\u00a0 With his experience, we\u2019re not really expecting anything out of the ordinary from Hempriggs today, and his best probably isn\u2019t enough to get the job done in this field.\u00a0 Prefer others.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n

#10 \u2013 Galileoff<\/b> (Zoffany (IRE) x Unpredictability [Galileo x Kingmambo]) \u2013 Owned by phillipj4<\/i> \u2013 5\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 5:2-0-1; $96,140<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: The most decorated horse in the field, Galileoff was gelded before he ever hit the track.\u00a0 That \u201cequipment change\u201d looked to pay off early, as in two straight local races at 7.5f and 8f on the turf, he sat just off the pacesetter and then made an early move, winning both races.\u00a0 That prompted a huge class jump the The International-G2<\/span> at 8f-T in November 2018, and he put on a strong performance, stalking the pace and holding his own to finish 3rd<\/sup> with a 91 SP, earning him a Graded Placed badge.\u00a0 From that race, Galileoff was given a\u2026Gali-layoff (*rimshot*)\u2026and returned in February at 8.5f in a turf stakes.\u00a0 Unfortunately, he didn\u2019t take to the yielding track and finished a tiring 5th<\/sup>.\u00a0 He tried graded company again last time out in the Irish 2000 Guineas Trial-G3<\/span>, where he sat further back than he ever had before and never really got into the race, finishing a well-beaten 9th<\/sup> but earning a career-high 95 SP.\u00a0 He\u2019ll make a big class drop and cut back in distance here as he tries to get his 2019 back on the right foot.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Zoffany, a G1-winning sprinter in Ireland, was the #25 ranked EU sire in 2018 and currently stands for $25,000 in Ireland.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop is currently ranked #71 overall, with 61 winners from 97 runners to date winning at a 16.5% rate.\u00a0 4 of those 61 winners have found victory at the stakes level, all in turf sprints (though one has been promising in longer routes), but none of his 2018 foals have reached graded stakes glory as of yet.\u00a0 Overall, Zoffany\u2019s sim progeny have shown an affinity for turf (77% of earnings on turf) and have preferred sprinting thus far (57% in sprints), matching Zoffany\u2019s real life race preference but slightly shorter than his real life AWD of 8.21. Galileoff is the 2nd<\/sup> foal from 7yo mare Unpredictability, a winner of 4 from 15 career races.\u00a0 Her two best efforts came in 3rd<\/sup> and 4th<\/sup> place finishes in turf stakes at 8.5-9f, which also happened to be the distance of her 4 career wins.\u00a0 Her first foal, Daiwability<\/b> (Daiwa Major<\/i>), has upped his game since being gelded in mid-2018, and he is 5:1-3-1 in turf allowances since the change, all coming at the 9.5f-10f distances.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Galileoff has shown a lot of talent throughout his young career, and the cutback in distance will likely push him slightly closer to the pace here than his last run.\u00a0 It will be interesting to see how he reacts to the cutback, as this will actually be the shortest race of his career.\u00a0 But in terms of raw talent, Galileoff has it.\u00a0 The horse he defeated in his maiden score has gone on to be a stakes winner, and he has proven that he belongs in graded stakes company.\u00a0 The class drop should help him as well.\u00a0 My only objection is the price; 5\/1 doesn\u2019t give you quite the value of some of the others in here.\u00a0 But he\u2019s a tough horse to knock.\u00a0 A legitimate threat.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#11 – Iron Fisted<\/b> (Ironicus x Larf Da Housedown [Limehouse x Distorted Humor]) \u2013 Owned by flurgen3<\/i> \u2013 14\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 5:2-3-0; $61,725<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Iron Fisted may be a lightly raced colt, with only 5 career races under his belt, but he\u2019s been very successful thus far.\u00a0 He began his career on the dirt, where he set the pace in each of his first 3 races (all as a 2yo) before being caught each time, finishing 2nd<\/sup> in all 3 races (two sprints and one route).\u00a0 To kick off his 3yo campaign, Iron Fisted switched from the dirt to the turf, as he took on a field of 7 in an 6.5f turf MSW.\u00a0 There, he opened up a sizeable lead early and never looked back, holding on to win by 1-1\/2 lengths and earning an 84 SP (the 2nd<\/sup> place horse would go on to break his maiden next time out, earning a 90 SP in the victory).\u00a0 Iron Fisted then stretched out to 7.5f on the turf to face winners for the first time and found a gear that he had never shown before.\u00a0 With no other pacesetters, Iron Fisted drew off early, opening up a 5+ length lead on the field, and then geared down in cruising to a 1-1\/2 length victory, earning a career high 95 SP.\u00a0 He will try to make it 3 for 3 on the turf here.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Ironicus, who entered stud in 2017, was an 8-9f turf graded stakes winner in his career and currently stands for $5,000 in Kentucky.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #160, with 33 winners from 83 runners, winning at a 11% rate.\u00a0 Among those winners are 3 stakes winners and one graded stakes horse, Ironicus Bandit, <\/b>who took down a G2 at 12f on the turf.\u00a0 Thus far, Ironicus\u2019 sim foals have slightly preferred turf races (55% of earnings on turf) and his foals\u2019 earnings, along with their speed figures, show a slight preference for turf sprints thus far.\u00a0 Iron Fisted is the 5th<\/sup> of 6 foals from 14yo mare Larf Da Housedown, winner of 13 of 51 races in her career.\u00a0 A stalwart at the stakes level, primarily sprinting on the turf, Larf Da Housedown picked up 12 career stakes wins, and 21 career stakes placings, including a win in The Bally\u2019s Best-G3<\/span> at 6f on turf in 2009.\u00a0 Her foals haven\u2019t been quite as perpetual at the stakes level, but 2 of her foals are stakes winners and a third is stakes placed.\u00a0 One of the foals, Giggly Jiggly<\/b> (Shamardal<\/i>) is a stakes winner at 7f on the turf (and stakes placed from 7-8f-T), and another, You Make Moi Laugh<\/b> (Pour Moi (IRE)<\/i>), is a Local Stakes champion at 9f-T (and 2-time Local Stakes-placed at 11-12f-T).\u00a0 The Ironicus x Limehouse combination is a new one for the sim (nor do I see any crosses between Ironicus x Grand Slam, the sire of Limehouse, or any other sons of Grand Slam, or Ironicus x Gone West, the sire of Grand Slam).<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Iron Fisted is a speedball.\u00a0 He wants the lead, and through 5 career starts he\u2019s never not had it early.\u00a0 This might be the first time in his career when he\u2019s tested on the lead.\u00a0 But while he struggled to hold off horses on the dirt, he\u2019s been dominant once switching over to the turf.\u00a0 The speed figure in his last might be deceiving, as he didn\u2019t need to run hard to secure the win, though we don\u2019t know much about his competition there (the 5th<\/sup> place horse ran 2nd<\/sup> next time out in a local allowance, but he\u2019s the only one that has come back to the track yet).\u00a0 Iron Fisted has room to grow, and he\u2019ll be one to watch here.\u00a0 A contender.\u00a0 Unsurprisingly, Cape Blanco has never been bred to a Soft Falling Rain mare.\u00a0 In fact, there are only 14 horses to have been bred in the past 4 years with Soft Falling Rain in the DS spot, with only 3 of those (including Blanco Reef) having picked up an allowance win.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#12 – Only What You Do<\/b> (Giant\u2019s Causeway x The Black Wolf [War Front x A.P. Indy]) \u2013 Owned by victoryland<\/i> \u2013 9\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 6:2-0-0; $61,680<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Only What You Do has taken on some of the highest caliber competition of anyone in this field.\u00a0 After breaking his maiden at 6f-T at first asking in June 2018, Only What You Do was stretched out to 7f-T and entered into The Vintage-G2<\/span>.\u00a0 There, he stalked the pace and ran evenly throughout, finishing 5th<\/sup>.\u00a0 A 2nd<\/sup> attempt at a 7f turf G2 in the Nationwide Stakes-G2<\/span> didn\u2019t work out quite as well, as he sat midpack early and never really find, finishing 7th<\/sup>.\u00a0 Only What You Do was then sent to rest up for his 3yo season.\u00a0 After a dull debut in a dirt route, he switched back to the turf and tried an 8f race.\u00a0 He earned a then-best 85 SP in the effort, but it was a poor run, as he tried to stalk the pace early but tired badly, finishing 9th<\/sup>.\u00a0 He came back 3 weeks later in a 6.5f turf NW2L, and there he showed that he is a sprinter at heart, as he stalked the pace early and then pounced late, getting up to win by 1-1\/2 lengths and earning a career high 91 SP.\u00a0 Only What You Do will stretch back out to 7f here as he tries to repeat his last performance.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Giant\u2019s Causeway, the #19 US sire in 2018, passed away in 2018.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop currently has 405(!) runners to date and ranks #1 overall.\u00a0 That class includes 264 winners, which have won at a 20.5% rate.\u00a0 Among the winners are 25 stakes winners and 8 graded winners.\u00a0 His sim foals are typically routers, aligning with his real world 8.09 AWD, and his sim foals are evenly split among dirt and turf, though the 2018 crop is favoring dirt thus far, with 66% of earnings on dirt (boosted by a certain Bluegrass Derby winner).\u00a0 Only What You Do is the first of 2 foals from 5yo mare The Black Wolf, winner of 6 from 20 career starts.\u00a0 One of those wins, her best career race, came in a 6.5f dirt stakes, where she battled for the lead and then pulled away to win by 1.\u00a0 She did spend some time on the turf, though her best performances all came on the dirt, and she was a sprinter through-and-through.\u00a0 Although Only What You Do is the first foal from The Black Wolf, it\u2019s interesting to note that her second foal, Like An Angel<\/b> (Pivotal<\/i>), broke her maiden at first asking at 6f on the turf in March, and then went on to a 3rd<\/sup> place finish last week in a 6f turf stakes race, where she stalked the pace early and was moving up at the end.\u00a0 Giant\u2019s Causeway has been bred to a War Front mare 9 times in the past 4 years in the sim, with 3 stakes winners and 2 graded stakes winners among the bunch.\u00a0 One of those graded stakes winners is Giant\u2019s Kash<\/b>, the winner of the 2019 Bluegrass Derby-G1<\/span>, while the other, Every Atom of Me<\/b>, is a G3-winning turf miler who just ran 2nd<\/sup> in the 2019 The 2000 Guineas-G1<\/span>.\u00a0 Both of those graded stakes winning 3yos share the full Giant\u2019s Causeway x War Front x A.P. Indy cross with Only What You Do, as does 1 other turf sprinting allowance winner.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Only What You Do has a lot to live up to, with 2 top 3yos sharing the same bloodlines.\u00a0 And although Only What You Do hasn\u2019t quite achieved that level of success yet, he\u2019s still young and the promise is there.\u00a0 He does look like he\u2019s a sprinter all the way, as he likes to stalk the pace early and then pounce late (he doesn\u2019t seem to have the stamina for that running style in routes).\u00a0 Furthermore, he\u2019s been improving in every turf start, and he\u2019ll look to continue that trend here.\u00a0 But it looks like he\u2019ll need a pretty sizeable improvement from his previous best to take down this field.\u00a0 It\u2019s certainly possible, but he may be better served underneath your bets rather than on top.\u00a0 A Kingmambo mare has been bred to Oasis Dream 49 times in the past 4 years, with 10 stakes winners and 4 graded stakes winners among the group.\u00a0 Most of the progeny are turf runners, and although the graded stakes winners have mostly been successful in 8-9f turf races, the group as a whole seems to have some sprinting ability.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

That\u2019s your field of 12 for this NW3L allowance.\u00a0 And surprisingly, with that many horses, there aren\u2019t any true closers, which is a bit of a bummer because the front end should be hot here.\u00a0 I\u2019ve done a pretty good job in the past of predicting the pacesetters, but I\u2019m at a bit of a loss here, as there are 3 horses in this field that are willing to go all out to get the lead early.\u00a0 Blanco Reef <\/b>has set the fastest paces of the three in the past, but he\u2019s been pushed in those races.\u00a0 So instead, I\u2019m gonna say that The Middle Man<\/b> sets the pace, dueling neck-and-neck with Iron Fisted<\/b>, followed by Blanco Reef<\/b> about \u00bd length back and then another length to Turns and Burns<\/b>.\u00a0 But most of the horses in this field are going to cluster about 2-4 lengths off of that pace, so expect to see Petah Tikva <\/b>and Dawn De Vida<\/b> a little further back than you would normally expect them to be.\u00a0 But honestly, I think that could help them here.\u00a0 I\u2019ve been wrong about the impact of pace on these races before, but I just can\u2019t see the frontrunners not getting caught here.\u00a0 So my prediction is: (1) Petah Tikva<\/b>; (2) The Middle Man<\/b>; (3) Dawn De Vida<\/b>, with longshot pick Iron Fisted<\/b>.\u00a0 Good luck to everyone!<\/p>\n

Other races to watch this weekend:<\/p>\n

1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ireland \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 9f-T (Division 1<\/a>) (Division 2<\/a>)<\/p>\n

2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Pennsylvania \u2013 Alw NW3L @ 9f<\/a><\/p>\n

3)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Virginia \u2013 Allowance @ 8f<\/a><\/p>\n

4)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 California \u2013 Alw NW4L @ 9.5f-T<\/a><\/p>\n

5)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Kentucky \u2013 Local ALW NW2x @ 8f<\/a><\/p>\n

6)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Paris \u2013 Alw NW3L @ 9f-T<\/a><\/p>\n

7)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Louisiana \u2013 Alw NW3L @ 8f (Fillies)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

First, a quick recap of last week\u2019s race. My prediction was pretty accurate early on, as Tapendereya and Discomfortable battled<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":384,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[230,229,132],"class_list":["post-48970","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews","tag-3yo","tag-future-stars-series","tag-ireland"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48970","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/384"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=48970"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48970\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48990,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48970\/revisions\/48990"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=48970"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=48970"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=48970"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}