{"id":48421,"date":"2019-03-16T10:37:41","date_gmt":"2019-03-16T14:37:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=48421"},"modified":"2019-03-16T10:37:41","modified_gmt":"2019-03-16T14:37:41","slug":"fuller-field-of-fifteen-to-contest-100000-esr-hell-no-we-wont-go-stakes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=48421","title":{"rendered":"\u201cFuller\u201d Field of Fifteen To Contest $100,000 ESR Hell No We Won\u2019t Go Stakes"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"o\"<\/a><\/p>\n

A Pfc. is standing at attention in the orderly room of a quartermaster company at Ft. Knox in Kentucky. A reservist, he is wearing civilian clothes. His company commander says to him. \u201cI\u2019m giving you a direct order to put on your uniform and report for duty.\u201d The young soldier says, \u201cI cannot, for reasons of conscience.\u201d The company commander orders the soldier taken to the post stockade, where he is stripped and put in a steel isolation cell\u2026
\nAcross the country such scenes are taking place nearly every day. \u201cOpen resistance to the draft,\u201d says columnist Clayton Fritchey, \u201cis greater than at any time since the Civil War.\u201d
\n(From \u201cHell, No, We Won\u2019t Go!\u201d The Saturday Evening Post, January 27, 1968)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Our ESR residency chief and BTB scribe extraordinaire, Trotter, is taking a well-deserved break this week. Filling in is\u2026 myself, a guy who occasionally writes stuff. Now I know Pete a little bit, Pete is a great guy. I\u2019ve been to the races with Pete. So even though I am going to write in the ESR Pete preview format, Senator, I am no Pete.
\n(Please do not contact BTB management for refunds. They will laugh, right in your face.)
\nThe Race<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>
\nAn uncharacteristically overflowing field of fifteen older male sprinters signed up for the $100,000 ESR Hell No We Won\u2019t Go Stakes. It\u2019s not a \u2018full\u2019 field because 20 horses are permitted in these restricted joints, as opposed to a limit of 14 entrants for the unrestricted plebian contests. Let\u2019s call it a \u201cfuller field\u201d; they\u2019re going 6 furlongs on the dirt in New York.<\/p>\n

WE\u2019VE GOT MAGIC<\/strong> is finding new life as a one-turn specialist for the spinround<\/em> operation, notching his 3rd lifetime win in a 6.5 furlong allowance race in December\u2026 his shortest effort since debuting with a win at 1100 meters. Today\u2019s competition may be on par with the listed group he tangled with last time (beaten less than 5 lengths). Shortening up another 1\/8th of a mile may be to his benefit\u2026 legitimate shot at a piece.
\nMIDSUMMER\u2019S PARTY<\/strong> placed in a Grade 3 at two and won a listed race at three, but like many precocious performers has struggled to find a place in the older ranks. Trotter<\/em> got him recalibrated at four after a lengthy eight month hiatus, scoring in consecutive \u201csince a date\u201d allowance races. The other 14 runners will not be intimidated by his resume, but the horse is in fine form and has an expert at the helm calling his shots. Arrow pointing up, but will need a lifetime best effort for a placing.
\nFOUND BEN LUCKY<\/strong> is a seven furlong specialist who\u2019s been sparingly campaigned by kingab<\/em> for an ESR debut in his 15th start. The 5yo gelding has started only four times in the last 16 months, and utilized that most significant of equipment changes for his victory last out in Cali. His record at 6.5 furlongs is a healthy 4-3-0-1, but something about his running style makes me think he\u2019s not going to love the shorter run to the stretch. Still, the talent is there and there should be plenty of juice in thelemon, figuratively speaking. Dangerous.<\/p>\n

HE\u2019S A HARD KID<\/strong> is the 4th stakes winner from a stakes winning Lemon Drop Kid mare who loved 6 furlongs. It wasn\u2019t hard for kingab<\/em> to figure out this guy likes that distance, too. Well entrenched in the 3yo listed sprint scene, the 4yo was unplaced in his only try vs. older, but that was 6 months ago. Those older siblings ran on at 4 and 5, so no reason for me to think he won\u2019t do the same. He\u2019s a hard one to bet, but I wouldn\u2019t bet against him (or Larry). Toss at your peril.
\nRAISE THE FOREST<\/strong> raised some eyebrows with his front-running romp last out in Massachusetts. The 4yo Flatter colt makes an ambitious leap up to stakes company from that first level condition, but seems to have benefitted from a significant maturity boost in his last two starts (speed figure progression in dirt sprints \u2013 88, 89, 101, 103). Kingman<\/em> has him on the move after some time on the sidelines, but the difficulty of the task at hand certainly matches the 55-1 pessimism of the CPU oddsmaker. Pace factor for your watch list.
\nGET SMOKED<\/strong> has made the most of his prodigious early speed; he is more often the smoker and not the smokee. Robscoobi<\/em>\u2019s 4yo son of TRIPPI and G1 sprinter SMOKED YA has won four straight and found a reasonable spot for a stakes debut in his 10th lifetime start. His 6 furlong loss last February looks like an anomaly, but you never know until they step up to the big time\u2026 or win without getting an early lead. His stalk, pounce, and hang-on late effort last out, at today\u2019s distance, looks pretty good against these. Smoke \u2018em if you\u2019ve got \u2018em.<\/p>\n

PUNKIN\u2019S A HERO<\/strong> should be twice as good as his dam (HALF A HERO) if ace<\/em>\u2019s naming scheme is to believed; the Constitution colt took the unusual path of ultra-short sprint allowances in Michigan as his stepping stone to stakes company. Despite what looked like modest speed figures and suspect company (100 SP and fields of 7 or less), the 4yo transitioned seamlessly to stakes company and continues to knock on the door at this level. The return to 6 furlongs should do him some good, and I expect some saltiness at an overlaid 20-1. Longshot with a shot.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

RUNZIG<\/strong> continues the trend of lightly raced 4yo showing up to contest more seasoned elders. The smartly bred irisharse<\/em> charge took the entire summer off in 2018, having won 4 of his first 6 starts shortly after turning 3. He scored with a solid 106 SP off the bench in November, but is unproven against older horses and has little experience at this exact distance. Lots to like, but an equal number of questions marks as well. Definitely maybe.
\nCHEYENNE RAIDER<\/strong> has the unlikeliest pedigree for this spot (OASIS DREAM x STREET CRY x GIANT\u2019S CAUSEWAY) but is in fact a stakes winning dirt sprinter, albeit at 1500 meters. Nextbonus<\/em> has him firing on all cylinders, with 6 consecutive races of 108 SP or more, including a solid 112 last out in the ESR Tune In, Turn On, Drop Out Stakes. He closed from far back to be beaten only 3 \u00bd in that two turn affair (assuming the NY track is simulated Aqueduct and not Belmont), so if you are looking for a class horse who may enjoy a turnback, look no further. He\u2019s never won at 6f, but his dam broke her maiden and won\u2026 11 hot races at the distance. I guess Bills will be Bills.
\nDAVID ANTONIO<\/strong> is another who had a solid 3yo sprint career and has yet to achieve 4yo success. Don\u2019t be quick to judge the ivanyamil<\/em> trainee who has simply been off since a good 3rd in a listed stake in November. The Distorted Humor colt comes in fresh and is pretty much out of allowance conditions, so why not take a shot in this spot? Speed figures are a hair below the top contenders, but never underestimate the maturity bump and the healing powers of voluntary layoffs. Muy posible, creo que si.
\nTIZIG<\/strong> is bristolred<\/em>\u2019s exciting 7yo Tiznow beast, not to be confused with RUNZIG who is by Runhappy (but also out of a Danzig mare). TIZIG is a win machine, getting his photo taken nearly 50% of the time (10 for 21). This includes two stakes wins at today\u2019s distance, including his last start in Illinois where he clocked an impressive 112 SP. What\u2019s not to like? The rightful 9\/2 favorite looks like he\u2019ll be right there, but Father Time looms as his toughest foe. His previous stakes win was followed by a heavy bounce, and you never know when the computer code dictates that you\u2019ve reached the edge of the proverbial performance \u2018cliff\u2019. Likely winner \/ risky bet.
\nTOO SOON CADET<\/strong> will test exactly that premise today for hard-to-identify-which-horses-belong-to-him trainer cadet<\/em>. The 4yo Distorted Humor gelding has been nearly flawless since his gender reassignment surgery, including a frontrunning victory versus 3yo ESR sprinters in December. Robby gave him the DAVID ANTONIO treatment and treated him to 4 months of simulated turnout, so he\u2019s similarly fresh and untested for today\u2019s spot. His dam won a G3 sprint at 4, so if I were an opposing trainer here, I\u2019d be more than a little wary of this guy. Solid credentials throughout.
\nTHE FLYING LOBO<\/strong> comes to us by way of New Mexico and the casino<\/em> outfit, where he has been roughing up State Bred sprinters with regularity, and in rapid fashion \u2013 112 SP lifetime best and nearly half a mil in cash money. The 5yo has exactly one start in unrestricted company \u2013 a turf sprint as a 2yo \u2013 which tells us exactly nothing about how he will handle the temporary relocation to NYC. He\u2019s in excellent form but faces a group where almost everyone is really good as well. Could be part of a massive blanket finish. Your guess \u2265 mine.
\nMR. MISTERIOSO<\/strong> is the younger of the two trotter<\/em> entries (second from the inside, second from the outside) and perhaps the brighter future as well. The well-travelled 4yo Quality Road colt broke through with a stakes victory in his 15 start, defeating older horses in December. A non-threatening 4th in his next effort under similar conditions in February; he should be a little tighter today than he was with a 60 day break. There is a little mystery surrounding this one\u2019s ceiling, but expect a solid effort nonetheless. Trotter\u2019s tag-team anchor.
\nTHIRSTY AFLEET<\/strong> is kody<\/em>\u2019s Afleet Alex banger who is as solid as they come, amassing 16 placings in 22 sprint attempts at the toughest North American tracks. He has not been seen in stakes company since respectable 3yo efforts more than 24 months ago, but his recent allowance jaunts of 107 and 108 SP are lifetime bests. He\u2019s another poised for a big effort off a last race that was less than optimal (in his case, a two-turn lung opener). The outside post may be too much to overcome, but he definitely fits with this bunch. Speedy sleeper for the next ESR sprint.<\/p>\n

Handicapping the Field<\/strong><\/span>
\nSeriously, you think I am going to be able to provide more insight on this race beyond what you see in the PP\u2019s or what I\u2019ve already clumsily laid out? No chance! I will, for the sake of completion, sort through my notes and come up with a prediction that is likely worse than a monkey throwing darts at a typewriter. Please do not equate my selections as an indictment of your training abilities\u2026 or celebrate too much when I am laughably wrong.
\nThere\u2019s a lot of speed in the race \u2013 it is a sprint, after all \u2013 but not a lot of \u201cneed the lead\u201d types. FOREST DANGER, THIRSTY AFLEET<\/strong>, and TOO SOON CADET<\/strong> all figure to be amongst the first pack of pacesetters, with GET SMOKED<\/strong> looking like he will gun for the front. WE\u2019VE GOT MAGIC<\/strong>, MIDSUMMER’S PARTY, HE\u2019S A HARD KID, RUNZIG, DAVID ANTONIO, TIZIG, THE FLYING LOBO<\/strong>\u2026 that\u2019s seven horses who all want to sit just a few lengths off the pace and make a move at the top of the stretch. CHEYENE RAIDER, MR. MISTERIOSO, PUNKIN\u2019S A HERO<\/strong>, and FOUND BEN LUCKY<\/strong> all prefer to be in the third flight and would benefit most from a zippy middle quarter mile.
\nThis is the first time in a long time where I\u2019ve seen a race of this quality without a single obvious \u2018pitch\u2019 \u2013 you cannot discount the chances of any of the runners, or be surprised somehow if they finish in the top three. Kudos to you ESR trainers for quality and well-spotted entries through the various campaigns.<\/p>\n

The Picks<\/strong><\/span>
\nThis task is tougher than a two-dollar steak (remember Ponderosa Steak House? I remember a $2.99 ribeye) but here\u2019s what the monkey tossed at the wall:
\nFOUND BEN LUCKY<\/strong> \u2013 when in doubt, bet on the Master(ab). Closer may like the cutback and expected hot pace.
\nGET SMOKED<\/strong> \u2013 has the look of a future star & could get brave on the front.
\nTOO SOON CADET<\/strong> \u2013 literally one of 13 who could figure, but upside is undeniable & looks to usurp the King.
\nHunch bet supreme \u2013 PUNKIN\u2019S A HERO<\/strong> \u2013 better than you think, AND he\u2019s a horse named after a dog.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Pfc. is standing at attention in the orderly room of a quartermaster company at Ft. Knox in Kentucky. A<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":67,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48421","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48421","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/67"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=48421"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48421\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48432,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48421\/revisions\/48432"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=48421"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=48421"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=48421"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}