{"id":48340,"date":"2019-03-09T01:54:09","date_gmt":"2019-03-09T06:54:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=48340"},"modified":"2019-03-08T22:55:27","modified_gmt":"2019-03-09T03:55:27","slug":"future-stars-series-field-of-10-heads-to-the-big-apple-for-a-nw3l-allowance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=48340","title":{"rendered":"Future Stars Series – Field of 10 Heads to the Big Apple For A NW3L Allowance"},"content":{"rendered":"

First, a quick recap of last week\u2019s race.\u00a0 Unsurprisingly, there was very little pace in the race, and as expected, Minimumrequirement<\/b> set the fractions, with Clue Hunter<\/b> right behind and then K\u2019s Social Media<\/b> and Feudal Warrior<\/b>.\u00a0 Minimumrequirement ran out of gas in the race, but the others didn\u2019t and with the slow early fractions, no one was able to gain any ground from the back.\u00a0 The 2-3-4-5-6 horses in the pace setup finished 1-2-3-4-5, with Clue Hunter<\/b> ($22.30) ultimately winning a head photo over Feudal Warrior<\/b>, both earning 98 SPs.\u00a0 K\u2019s Social Media<\/b> dug in for 3rd<\/sup>, another 3 lengths back.<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

This week, the Future Stars Series heads to New York, where 10 fillies try their hand at a 9 furlong NW3L Allowance on the dirt.\u00a0 The field is:<\/p>\n

#1 – Popest of Maori<\/b> (Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) x Legend of Maori [Blame x A.P. Indy]) \u2013 Owned by br5four9<\/i> \u2013 15\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 12:2-0-0; $37,284<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: It\u2019s been a tough slog recently for Popest of Maori.\u00a0 After winning her first 2 career races at 4.5f on dirt in August 2018 and 5f in a NW1x allowance 2 weeks later, she has failed to hit the board in her last 10 starts, all at the NW3L\/NW2x level. That includes tries on turf and dirt, in sprints and routes.\u00a0 Her fastest race to date came in career start #8, where she put up an 83 SP in a 7f turf NW3L and set the pace early before tiring to finish 4th<\/sup>.\u00a0 She comes into this race with 4 under her belt as a 3yo already, with 3 on the turf and 1 on the good dirt.\u00a0 Her most recent race, at 7.5f on turf, saw a bit of a regression, as she set the pace early but struggled to keep up, finishing 13-1\/2 lengths back and earning a 74 SP.\u00a0 Of note, she has competed against today\u2019s rival Officer Queen<\/i><\/b> twice, finishing 10th<\/sup> both times to that rival\u2019s 2nd<\/sup> and 3rd<\/sup> place finishes.\u00a0 Popest of Maori will try to get a turf-to-dirt bump here as she stretches out to 9f for the first time.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Holy Roman Emperor, the #14 ranked European sire of 2018, currently stands for $15,000 in Ireland.\u00a0 In the sim, Holy Roman Emperor\u2019s 2018 crop currently ranks #190 with 18 winners from 39 runners, winning at a 13.5% rate (slightly above his 12.5% average).\u00a0 But what the crop lacks in quantity it makes up in quality, as 2 of those 18 winners are already stakes winners.\u00a0 One, Holy Hello<\/b>, is a stakes winner at 8.5f on the turf and G3-placed at 10f-T, and the other, Royal Mate, <\/b>is a stakes winner at 7f-T.\u00a0 Unsurprisingly, Holy Roman Emperor\u2019s sim foals prefer turf (68% earnings on turf), and they tend to prefer routes (60% on routes), a little different than his real life foals which average around 7.5 furlongs.\u00a0 Popest of Maori is the 3rd<\/sup> foal from 8yo mare Legend of Maori, a winner of 8 races in her 38 race career.\u00a0 Most of those wins came at the claimer\/starter level, though she did pick up an allowance win at 7f on the dirt.\u00a0 Much like that win, most of her success came on the dirt in the 6-7f range.\u00a0 Unlike their mother, however, both of Popest of Maori\u2019s previous foals have done their best running in routes and both have allowance wins at today\u2019s 9f distance.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Popest of Maori likes to be in the front, and her best chance in this race puts her setting the pace early.\u00a0 It\u2019s interesting then to see that in her 2 previous dirt route efforts, she took back a bit, either sitting just off the lead or setting a slow pace.\u00a0 This was probably to try and save some speed for the end, but in each case, she ran out of gas quickly and finished over 10 lengths back.\u00a0 This race pushes the distance out even farther, and unfortunately, it doesn\u2019t look like she\u2019ll have the juice to get it done today either.\u00a0 Pass.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n

#2 – Seize The Knight<\/b> (Arrogate x Vilholin [Arch x A.P. Indy]) \u2013 Owned by knightmare<\/i> \u2013 6\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 6:2-2-0; $105,015<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Seize The Knight has taken some big swings in her career, and she hasn\u2019t embarrassed herself.\u00a0 After winning her second consecutive race (career races #2 and #3), a NW2L at 8f on the dirt, her owner sent her to the Frickazee Stakes-G1<\/span> in October 2018.\u00a0 There, she broke towards the back early, but passed a number of horses and finished a strong 4th<\/sup>, earning an 87 SP.\u00a0 Seize The Knight followed that up by dropping back down into NW4L territory and took on a field of 4, but couldn\u2019t quite catch up to the winner who got first run on her, finishing 2nd<\/sup>.\u00a0 She enters this race off of another shot, this time in The SilverBulletBeer-G3<\/span> at 8.5f on the dirt in early February, where she again broke at the back and moved up a bit late, but she could only get up to 8th<\/sup> before the wire, 6 lengths back.\u00a0 She earned a career high 94 SP in that race (her 6th<\/sup> straight SP increase) and she\u2019ll try to build off of that while dropping in class and stretching out to a career long 9f.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>:\u00a0 Arrogate, the richest racehorse of all time, entered stud in Kentucky for $75,000.\u00a0 His freshman crop in the sim includes 151 runners to date, of which 88 have found the winner\u2019s circle at an 18% rate.\u00a0 The crop currently ranks #15 overall, with 9 stakes winners and 3 graded stakes winners (all in G3s).\u00a0 The foals have primarily raced on the dirt (88% of earnings on dirt), and the 3 graded stakes winners all scored at 8-8.5f on the dirt, so his sim progeny seem to be improving with distances.\u00a0 He also sired last week\u2019s Future Stars Series winner, Clue Hunter<\/b>. <\/b>Vilholin will only have 1 sim foal, as he was a he-mare used to produce Seize The Knight.\u00a0 Vilholin was an excellent horse in his own right, a G3 winner at 8f on the dirt in The Hambone Cup-G3<\/span>, where he earned a career high 121 SP.\u00a0 He tried some other stakes but could never repeat that amazing performance.\u00a0 Still, he finished his career with 9 wins from 33 starts and hopes to have passed down some of that talent to his lone progeny.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Seize The Knight has faced stronger fields than today\u2019s NW3L, and that experience should help her settle in here.\u00a0 Furthermore, she\u2019s seen improvement in each of her races to date.\u00a0 A relatively deep closer, Seize The Knight hopes that the added distance in this race will help her get to the finish line first.\u00a0 But I\u2019m worried that while she has a closing kick, it might not be as strong as some of the others in this field.\u00a0 That may be an optical illusion, based on the graded company that she has faced, and this filly has a very promising future ahead of her.\u00a0 She\u2019s a deserving horse here, but for the price, I\u2019m going elsewhere.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#3 – Kelly\u2019s Gold Mine<\/b> (Arrogate x Mineshaft x Seeking The Gold) \u2013 Owned by ddkstables35<\/i> \u2013 6\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 5:2-0-0; $69,626<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Kelly\u2019s Gold Mine broke her maiden in her first try at dirt routing, in her second career start back in August 2018.\u00a0 From there, she took a couple of shots at stakes company, both at 8.5f on the dirt.\u00a0 In each race, she finished respectably (4th<\/sup> then 5th<\/sup>), with her first attempt getting slightly closer than her second.\u00a0 To kick off 2019, Kelly\u2019s Gold Mine dropped back down in class to the NW2L level at today\u2019s 9f distance, where she crushed her competition.\u00a0 In that race, she sat about 5 lengths back early before cruising to a 2-1\/4 length victory, earning a career high 92 SP in the process.\u00a0 That was her 5th<\/sup> straight SP increase, and she looks to make it 6 today.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: See today\u2019s rival Seize The Knight<\/i><\/b> for a description of Arrogate.\u00a0 The Arrogate x Mineshaft cross has been used 4 other times thus far in the sim, with 2 of them being 2yos this year.\u00a0 Of the other two, only one, Deckon Thar<\/b>, has broken his maiden, though he is also stakes placed at 8.5f on the dirt.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Kelly\u2019s Gold Mine is likely to sit several lengths off of the pace, though her last race, and first at this distance, saw her sit slightly closer than she had previously.\u00a0 That race worked out well for her, so she may try something similar again here.\u00a0 There\u2019s also no question about the distance, as she proved in her first race as a 3yo that she can get this distance without a problem.\u00a0 Kelly\u2019s Gold Mine has a solid foundation with 2 stakes efforts already, and she\u2019s a game one in today\u2019s race.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#4 – Life To Come<\/b> (Graydar x Auyoung [Bernardini x Deputy Minister]) \u2013 Owned by vkstakes8<\/i> \u2013 8\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 6:2-3-1; $90,340<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: A perfect 6-for-6 on the board, Life To Come also enters this race as the most accomplished filly in the field.\u00a0 Her second career win, which came two races back in December 2018, was a wire-to-wire victory in a residency-restricted stakes race at 8.5f on the dirt.\u00a0 Life To Come came out of that race sharp and actually improved her speed figure in her most recent race, as she comes into this race off of a career high 94 SP last time out.\u00a0 In that NW3L effort at 8f, she again set the pace, but couldn\u2019t quite hold off the winner, who pulled in front to win by 1-3\/4 lengths, forcing Life To Come to settle for 2nd<\/sup>.\u00a0 That winner came back to the track and won her next allowance race as well, with a 98 SP.\u00a0 Life To Come will stretch out to a career long 9f here, as she will try to hold her speed for the full distance.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Graydar, a G1 winner at 9f, currently stands for $7,500 in Kentucky and was ranked the #10 second-crop US sire of 2018.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #77, with 95 runners and 52 winners to date (winning at a 13.5% rate, well below his 18% average).\u00a0 His sim foals strongly prefer dirt, with 79% of earnings on dirt, both are pretty evenly split between sprinting and routing (54% in sprints), even though his real life progeny have an average winning distance of roughly 6.5f.\u00a0 The 2018 crop includes 2 stakes winners to date, one of which is Life To Come.\u00a0 The other scored at 7f on the dirt, but another one of Graydar\u2019s 3yos just ran 3rd<\/sup> in a 9f dirt G1, so there\u2019s some stamina potential as well.\u00a0 Life To Come is the 6th<\/sup> foal from 10yo dam Auyoung, a stakes winner at 5.5f on the dirt.\u00a0 Auyoung won 4 of her 15 career races, with all of her success coming in dirt sprints where she didn\u2019t have to worry about tiring late.\u00a0 Most of her sim progeny have also been sprinters, mainly on the dirt, and they have largely taken after their mother\u2019s front-running style as well.\u00a0 One, Angelwingz<\/b> (Fusaichi Pegasus<\/i>), is multiple stakes placed in dirt sprints, and another, Wigmore Drive<\/b> (Pivotal<\/i>), is residency-restricted stakes placed at 9f on the dirt.\u00a0 Graydar has been bred to a Bernardini mare 11 times in the past 4 years, with one graded stakes winner among them in <\/b>5yo Radar Magic<\/b>, who picked up a G3 victory at 6f on the dirt as a 2yo.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Life To Come has a ton of speed, and I fully expect her to use it here.\u00a0 The big question mark is whether she can get the distance.\u00a0 Most of her siblings haven\u2019t been great in routes, her mother was a sprinter, and her sire tends to throw sprinters in the sim.\u00a0 Life To Come has put together a couple of very strong races at 8-8.5f, but this race goes even farther.\u00a0 There\u2019s some indication that she may have been tiring in her last effort at 8f, even though she held on for 2nd<\/sup>.\u00a0 Life To Come is a strong horse with a strong future ahead of her, but that future may end up being in shorter races than this.\u00a0 We\u2019ll find out today.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#5 – Aces and Apples<\/b> (Aces Star x Eve\u2019s Apple Pie [Hussonet x Deputy Minister]) \u2013 Owned by lawdro2<\/i> \u2013 8\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 9:2-2-2; $92,398<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Aces and Apples began her career on dirt, but after 3 tries, she switched over to turf where she first found success at 8 furlongs.\u00a0 After spending 5 races on the sod, she moved back to dirt for her last race at 8.5 furlongs and put together a career best race.\u00a0 In that NW2L, she broke midpack early and stuck with her group as they moved forward before kicking into another gear and pulling away to win by 1-1\/2.\u00a0 That effort earned her a career high 89 SP, a 4 point jump from her prior turf effort at the same distance, where she finished 3rd<\/sup> but struggled to gain any ground on the footing.\u00a0 Aces and Apples sticks with the dirt here and stretches out to a career high 9 furlongs.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Aces Star, a son of Monarchos, currently stands in Sweden, but since I can\u2019t read Swedish I can\u2019t tell much more about him.\u00a0 But I can read the sim data, and his 2018 class includes 14 runners to date.\u00a0 They currently rank #1,474 with 6 winners winning at a 9.5% rate.\u00a0 Typically, his sim horses, which include 3 total stakes winners, are dirt sprinters, with 64% of earnings on dirt and 78% in sprints.\u00a0 Eve\u2019s Apple Pie, the 8yo dam of Aces and Apples, was a winner of 7 from 21 career races.\u00a0 That career included a 3rd<\/sup> place finish in an 8 furlong turf stakes as a 3yo, but her best races were actually on the polytrack, where she went 2 for 5 lifetime at the 8.5f distance.\u00a0 She seemed to like the 8-9f distances in general.\u00a0 Her 3 other sim progeny to race thus far, however, have mostly done their best running in sprints.\u00a0 The only exception is 4yo Eden\u2019s Zip Code <\/b>(City Zip<\/i>), who has found herself doing her best running at 8-9f on the turf<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Aces and Apples has run pretty consistently in her 9 races, usually sitting 3-5 lengths off the pace in route races such as today\u2019s race.\u00a0 She showed a lot of maturity in her most recent race, finally putting together what she had hinted at in much shorter races earlier in her career.\u00a0 But there\u2019s an outstanding question \u2013 was her last race aided by the turf-to-dirt bump?\u00a0 The race was by far Aces and Apples\u2019 best dirt effort, but was it a sign of maturity as she reached the right distance and age, or was it a fluke.\u00a0 We\u2019ll see here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

#6 – Iron Seed <\/b>(Ironicus x Millview Seeds [Falvelon (AUS) x Advocator]) \u2013 Owned by lightng102<\/i> \u2013 84\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 9:1-0-1; $22,350<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: The longest shot on the board, Iron Seed comes in here with only 1 prior dirt race, her debut effort at 6f in a local MSW in February of 2018.\u00a0 She went off at 59\/1 odds and ran like it, finishing last against males, 9-3\/4 lengths back with a 49 SP.\u00a0 She ended up breaking her maiden in a $60K MCL at 5f on the turf, but 2 races later found herself in G2 company.\u00a0 She was no match for the competition that day though, and hasn\u2019t shown much in her 4 efforts since that race.\u00a0 Iron Seed enters today\u2019s race off of her first route attempt, a 12-1\/2 length defeat at 8.25 on the turf in an Allowance, where she earned her third straight 68 SP, tied for her career high.\u00a0 She\u2019ll look for a turf-to-dirt bounce as she heads back to the main track here.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Ironicus, who entered stud in 2017, was an 8-9f turf graded stakes winner in his career and currently stands for $5,000 in Kentucky.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #155, with 32 winners from 82 runners, winning at a 12% rate.\u00a0 Among those winners are 2 stakes winners and one other graded placed horse, with a mix of turf sprinting, turf miles, and dirt miles among them.\u00a0 Thus far, Ironicus\u2019 sim foals have slightly preferred turf races and routes (57% of earnings on turf and in routes), though the speed figures from his foals thus far show a slight preference for turf sprints.\u00a0 Iron Seed is the 7th<\/sup> foal from 14yo mare Millview Seeds, a horse who managed 7 career stakes placings but only 1 career win.\u00a0 Well placed early in her career, that one win came in a 6.5f turf MSW in her 8th<\/sup> career race (at which point she had already picked up 5 career stakes placings, all 2nd<\/sup> place finishes in 4-6 horse fields). \u00a0Millview Seeds spent most of her career in turf sprints, but did manage one solid dirt race, where she ran 3rd<\/sup> of 12 in a 7f NW1x allowance.\u00a0 Her sim foals have taken after her as well, with most of their best races coming in turf sprints, though none have shown much talent on the track (only 2 of the 6 have won an allowance race outside of the local or hot levels).<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: This will only be Iron Seed\u2019s second career race on dirt and only her first since her debut over 1 year ago.\u00a0 It\u2019s certainly possible that she actually loves dirt and will see a huge improvement here. And it\u2019s very possible that she\u2019ll see a nice turf-to-dirt bounce.\u00a0 Anything\u2019s possible, so I can\u2019t count her out entirely.\u00a0 But she\u2019s 84\/1 for a reason, and on paper it\u2019s hard to see how she\u2019ll beat any more than 1 horse in this field.\u00a0 Pass.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n

#7 – Officer Queen<\/b> (Officer x Queenavenger [Kingmambo x A.P. Indy]) \u2013 Owned by txace04<\/i> \u2013 7\/2 (f)<\/i><\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 12:2-4-2; $119,558<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: One of the most experienced horses in the field, Officer Queen comes into this race having come very close, but never quite cracking, the NW3L level.\u00a0 2 for 2 in dirt routes prior to reaching NW3L races, she has run 3rd<\/sup>, 2nd<\/sup>, 5th<\/sup>, and 2nd<\/sup> in her 4 prior attempts at this level.\u00a0 A deep closer, Officer Queen comes into this race off of an 8.5f NW3L on the good dirt back in mid-February, where she showed a monster closing kick but ran out of running room, coming up 2 lengths short and earning a career high 96 SP.\u00a0 She finished 5th<\/sup> on the good dirt in her only other try at 9f, 2 races back, but the horses finishing ahead of her in that one came back to run 2nd<\/sup> in a G2, 3rd<\/sup> in a stakes, and 2nd<\/sup> in an allowance, so that race looks to have had a strong field.\u00a0 Officer Queen also has some history against a couple of her rivals today.\u00a0 Back in race #4 of her career, at 6.5f on the dirt, Officer Queen trailed today\u2019s rival Ratavari<\/i><\/b>, who finished 2nd<\/sup> to Officer Queen\u2019s 5th<\/sup>.\u00a0 More recently, Officer Queen has taken on Popest<\/b> of Maori<\/b> twice at the NW3L level and has outrun her rival both times, finishing 3rd<\/sup> to Popest\u2019s 10th<\/sup> in October 2018 and then 2nd<\/sup> to Popest\u2019s 10th<\/sup> in December 2018.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Officer, a 3-time graded stakes winner as a 2yo, currently stands in South Korea and was the #3 ranked Korean sire in 2018.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #468, with only 20 runners to date and 9 winners (winning at a 14% rate).\u00a0 Among those 9 winners is a 3-time stakes winner, who has found her best success sprinting on the turf.\u00a0 Officer\u2019s sim foals tend to prefer the dirt (63% of earnings on dirt) and sprinting (68% in sprints).\u00a0 Officer Queen is the final foal (of 14) from 21yo mare Queenavenger, a 6 time stakes winner and 8 time stakes placed horse (including 2 graded stakes placings) in her 69 race career.\u00a0 Queenavenger did all of her damage on dirt, with most coming in sprints (though she did also pick up 9 of her 21 wins, and her G2 2nd<\/sup>, at the 8-9f range).\u00a0 Her stakes wins ranged anywhere from 6f to 8.5f on the dirt.\u00a0 Two of her foals have picked up stakes wins: Avenger\u2019s Ghost<\/b> (Ghostzapper<\/i>), a stakes winner and G2-placed at 7f on the dirt, and Northern Avenger<\/b> (North Light (IRE)<\/i>), a stakes winner at 8.5f on the turf.\u00a0 Other siblings include 2 other stakes placed horses as well as 15yo Avenger\u2019s King<\/b> (Daylami (IRE)<\/i>), a million dollar earner who won 40 times (and was ITM 72 times) in 105 (!) races, even though his only two stakes attempts were failures (most of those earnings came at 10-12f, and primarily 11f, on the dirt.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Officer Queen loves to have something to chase after, and she\u2019ll sit in the back early.\u00a0 She may look hopeless early, but this is a horse that absolutely flies late.\u00a0 She\u2019s had experience at this level and has done well, but she has just run out of room every time.\u00a0 The only hesitation with her here is that her prior 9f dirt race was her worst routing effort to date.\u00a0 But that field was very strong and the track was rated good, so she\u2019s got excuses.\u00a0 She came back strong last time out, and has an excellent shot here.\u00a0 Top prospect.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#8 – Miss Vinotinto<\/b> (Giant\u2019s Causeway x Rucio Moro [Americain x Mr. Prospector]) \u2013 Owned by ottox<\/i> \u2013 5\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 4:2-1-0; $74,151<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: The sponsor of this race, Miss Vinotinto, is also the least experienced in the field, with only 4 career races under her belt.\u00a0 It only took 1 try to break her maiden, and after a close 4th<\/sup> in her first NW2L effort in sprints, she stretched out to route races and popped.\u00a0 2 races back at 8.5f in a NW2L, Miss Vinotinto stalked the pace and then briefly grabbed the lead, before getting passed by the eventual winner and having to settle for 2nd<\/sup>, 1-1\/4 lengths back with an 89 SP.\u00a0 The winner from that race, Jyuratodus<\/b>, is 3 for 3 since defeating Miss Vinotinto, including a stakes at 8.5f and a victory in last week\u2019s 9f The Miss Bonnie-G2<\/span>, putting Miss Vinotinto in solid company.\u00a0 She proved it in her most recent race, as she stretched out to 9f and dusted her competition, sitting just off the pace early before taking the lead in the far turn and pulling away to win by 3-1\/4 lengths.\u00a0 She comes into this race off of a career high 93 SP.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Giant\u2019s Causeway, the #19 US sire in 2018, passed away in 2018 so Miss Vinotinto is a member of his final sim crop.\u00a0 That sim crop is currently the top ranked class with 378 (!) runners to date.\u00a0 Of those, 220 have won at a 20% rate.\u00a0 Among those are 18 stakes winners and 6 graded winners.\u00a0 His sim foals are typically routers, and are evenly split among dirt and turf…\u00a0 Miss Vinotinto is the daughter of 8yo he-mare Rucio Moro, an excellent horse in his day.\u00a0 He spent most of his career at today\u2019s 9f distance and picked up 15 wins in 33 career starts.\u00a0 The coup de grace was his victory in 2016\u2019s The Barry Foster-G1<\/span>, his second G1 win of the year, which propelled him to the Breeders\u2019 Bowl Classic (where he finished 13th<\/sup> after tiring out on the front end).\u00a0 Miss Vinotinto is one of two horses to be sired by Giant\u2019s Causeway from an Americain mare, but the other has done nothing beyond breaking her maiden in 4 career starts.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Miss Vinotinto will probably sit pretty close to the pace in this race, maybe 1-2 lengths off of it early.\u00a0 Her history shows that she will try to make an early move and then withstand a late charge from some of the others in here.\u00a0 Her most recent race may have been the most impressive one in this field, based on how significantly she dominated her competition.\u00a0 Considering she was only 1 length off of a G2 winner 2 races back (and the horses that finished 3rd<\/sup> and 4th<\/sup> behind her have gone 3 for 4 in allowances since that race), she has a very strong resume even without the experience of some of the others in here.\u00a0 She might be the pick.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#9 – Quality Ending<\/b> (Quality Road x Stormy Ending [Stormy Atlantic x Rahy]) \u2013 Owned by mightyforego8<\/i> \u2013 5\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 7:2-1-2; $63,805<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Quality Ending broke her maiden at the $100K maiden claimer level, but proved that once she reached route distances, she fit right into allowance company.\u00a0 She ended 2018 with a 4th<\/sup> place finish in a residency-restricted stakes race, and then came back in early February and put up her fastest race to date.\u00a0 In that last race, a NW3L at 8.5f on the dirt, Quality Ending sat midpack early, about 5 lengths off the pace, and then came with a rush along with 2 of her other co-midpack runners.\u00a0 Those other 2 (a G2-placed horse and a stakes-placed horse) were a little quicker than her, so Quality Ending had to settle for 3rd<\/sup>, 4-1\/2 lengths behind the winner but also 5-1\/4 lengths clear of 4th<\/sup>.\u00a0 She earned a career high and field high 98 SP for the effort, and big jump over her prior 89 SP, and she\u2019ll look to carry that forward here.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Quality Road, currently stands for $150,000 in Kentucky and was the #7 ranked US sire in 2018.\u00a0 His sim crop has not quite caught up to his real life counterparts, as the 2018 crop currently ranks #115 with 51 winners from 94 runners (winning at a 15% rate).\u00a0 Only one of those 94 is currently a stakes winner, and that horse, Quality Killer<\/b>, is a G3 winner at 8f on the turf, though he is also stakes placed at 9.5f on the dirt. <\/b>Quality Road\u2019s progeny strongly prefer dirt (68% earnings on dirt), with a pretty even split in earnings between sprints and routes (though the speed figures favor sprints).\u00a0 Quality Ending is the first of 2 foals to date from 5yo mare Stormy Ending.\u00a0 Stormy Ending struggled as a 2yo, but took the aging process well, as she saw a 24 point SP jump from her last 2yo maiden effort to her 3yo maiden-winning debut.\u00a0 She would go on to multiple stakes placings at 8.5f-9.5f on the dirt in her 15 race career.\u00a0 That career ended with 3 wins, all as a 3yo and all in the 9-10f range.\u00a0 Quality Road has been bred to a Stormy Atlantic mare 3 times in the last 4 years, but the other 2 horses are a combined 2 for 15 overall.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Quality Ending\u2019s most recent race was eye-opening and moves her to the top of the class here.\u00a0 She did her best to hang with stakes company and although she wasn\u2019t quite good enough to catch them, she did well for herself in blowing out the rest of the field.\u00a0 If she can carry that over here, she\u2019s got a great chance.\u00a0 The concern is that she seems to be a horse that stays towards the back early, but doesn\u2019t have much of a closing kick.\u00a0 Her best races have come with soft paces up front, and she probably won\u2019t get that here.\u00a0 But Quality Ending\u2019s mother took a huge leap at 3, and it\u2019s possible that Quality Ending\u2019s last race, her own first race at 3yo, is a genetic thing and a sign of even more promising things to come.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#10 – Ratavari<\/b> (Symboli Kris S x La Madame [Storm Cat x Forty Niner]) \u2013 Owned by abarca<\/i> \u2013 5\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 9:2-5-1; $119,325<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Ratavari cured her seconditis in her last race, and she comes into this one off of a 2 length victory in a 9f NW2L allowance.\u00a0 That had snapped a run of 3 2nds and 1 3rd<\/sup> at the NW2L that she had going prior to the race.\u00a0 In that most recent run, her first as a 3yo, Ratavari sat midpack early, about 4 lengths off the lead, before methodically moving up and then pouncing late, pulling away to win by 2 lengths and earning a career high 95 SP.\u00a0 Of note, one of Ratavari\u2019s 5 career second place finishes was against today\u2019s rival Officer Queen<\/i><\/b>, who finished 5th<\/sup> in Ratavari\u2019s 2nd<\/sup> career race (at 6.5f on the dirt).<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Symboli Kris S, a 4-time G1 winner in Japan, currently stands there and was the #14 ranked Japanese sire in 2018.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop currently ranks #119 overall, with 29 winners from 64 runners to date, winning at a 16% rate. \u00a0Among those is 1 stakes winner thus far, Earth Is Flat<\/b>, who recently picked up a win in an 8.5f turf stakes.\u00a0 Symboli Kris S has 2 other stakes placed horses from the class thus far, one at 8.5f on the turf, and one at 6f on the dirt, but to this point, most of his 2018 crop have done their best racing on the turf. Likewise, his sim progeny based on earnings slightly favor turf (58% earnings on turf), as well as routing (62% in routes), though his progeny\u2019s speed figures indicate a stronger preference for sprinting.\u00a0 Ratavari is the 4th<\/sup> of 5 foals from 16yo mare La Madame.\u00a0 La Madame was an extremely well-bred mare, but didn\u2019t run like it on the track, as she won only 2 of 45 career races.\u00a0 La Madame tried different surfaces in spurts, with her two wins coming at 7f on the dirt and 8f on the turf.\u00a0 Her two best speed figures, however, both occurred in turf sprints, as she ran 2nd<\/sup> and 3rd<\/sup> in NW2x allowances at 6f-T and 6.5f-T.\u00a0 Her 3 prior progeny to race have fared slightly better on the track, as 2 of the 3 have already earned more wins than her.\u00a0 Each of those progeny has been stronger on dirt than turf, with one being able to get as far as 10f and the other two living in the sprint\/mile range.\u00a0 Storm Cat mares have been sent to Symboli Kris S 4 times in the past 4 years (3 not including Ratavari), and of the 2 that have reached the track, one is a stakes winner at 8.5f on the dirt, and the other has not yet broken her maiden and has been on the shelf for the past year (along with her stablemates).<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Ratavari\u2019s win in her last race, her first at 9f, was a huge breakthrough and the culmination of some near misses at slightly shorter distances.\u00a0 She proved in that one that today\u2019s distance should be no issue, and she made a nice improvement in her first race as a 3yo, which is something you love to see.\u00a0 There are some strong opponents in this race, but Ratavari has shown that she belongs.\u00a0 Her track record makes me think she\u2019s more likely to finish 2nd<\/sup> than anything else, but Ratavari looks like she loves this distance and that gives this midpack-style runner a good chance here.\u00a0 Respect.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the field of 10 for this wide open NW3L.\u00a0 Last week I decided to discount pace entirely, and it came back to bite me. \u00a0So I\u2019m going back to my old strategy.\u00a0 The best news for some of the closers in this field is that Popest of Maori<\/b> is here, because she may act as a rabbit for some of those late comers by creating a duel up front.\u00a0 That duel will likely be with Life To Come<\/b>, with Miss Vintinto <\/b>sitting just off of them.\u00a0 Popest of Maori will give way before long, and that\u2019s when the closers will start their runs.\u00a0 But I think that duel up front might be just<\/i> enough to work.\u00a0 So I\u2019m gonna go with (1) Officer Queen<\/b>, (2) Miss Vinotinto<\/b>, and (3) Quality Ending<\/b>.\u00a0 Sorry to those of you I picked.<\/p>\n

Other races to watch this weekend:<\/p>\n

1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Spain \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 7f-T (Division 1<\/a>) (Will be split into 2 divisions)<\/p>\n

2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Paris \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 7f-T (Division 1<\/a>) (Division 2<\/a>)<\/p>\n

3)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Hong Kong \u2013 Alw NW3L @ 7f-T (Fillies)<\/a><\/p>\n

4)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Kentucky \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 8f (Division 1<\/a>) (Division 2<\/a>)<\/p>\n

5)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ireland \u2013 Alw NW3L @ 9f-T<\/a><\/p>\n

6)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Maryland \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 7f (Division 1<\/a>) (Division 2<\/a>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

First, a quick recap of last week\u2019s race.\u00a0 Unsurprisingly, there was very little pace in the race, and as expected,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":384,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[230,229,12],"class_list":["post-48340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews","tag-3yo","tag-future-stars-series","tag-new-york"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48340","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/384"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=48340"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48340\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48364,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48340\/revisions\/48364"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=48340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=48340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=48340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}