{"id":47912,"date":"2019-02-02T16:08:15","date_gmt":"2019-02-02T21:08:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=47912"},"modified":"2019-02-02T16:08:20","modified_gmt":"2019-02-02T21:08:20","slug":"future-stars-series-a-full-field-heads-to-california-for-a-nw2l-dirt-mile","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=47912","title":{"rendered":"Future Stars Series &#8211; A Full Field Heads to California For A NW2L Dirt Mile"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>First, a quick recap from last week.\u00a0 I may have actually gotten the pace situation right for a change, as the horses that ran 1, 2, 3 and 4 early finished 3<sup>rd<\/sup>, 4<sup>th<\/sup>, 5<sup>th<\/sup>, and 1<sup>st<\/sup>, respectively.\u00a0 After <b>Bomb Cyclone<\/b> decided to take the front, <b>Kymarc Cap <\/b>got exactly what he wanted and sat just off a relatively slow pace.\u00a0 He got first run in the stretch and pulled ahead, grabbing the lead and then holding off a late charge by <b>Mean No Harm<\/b> to win by 1-1\/2 lengths, earning a 92 SP.\u00a0 Mean No Harm was the only closer to stand a chance in this one, as he finished second, and Bomb Cyclone, the pacesetter, held on for 3<sup>rd<\/sup>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p>This week, the Future Stars Series heads home to California.\u00a0 A full field of 14 colts are looking to prove their route bona fides, as they take on this NW2L Allowance at 8 furlongs on the dirt.\u00a0 The field is:<\/p>\n<p><b>#1 &#8211; Shipping Tycoon<\/b> (Written Tycoon (AUS) x No Shipping Cost [A.P. Indy x Deputy Minister]) \u2013 Owned by <i>steller1<\/i> \u2013 6\/1 (<i>f-t<\/i>)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race Record<\/span>: 6:1-2-0; $37,961<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race History<\/span>: Shipping Tycoon started his career on the turf before finally jumping over to the dirt in race #3.\u00a0 In that race, a 6f MSW, he battled for the lead early before taking over the pace and trying to distance himself from the field.\u00a0 He was eventually caught by one other horse, but Shipping Tycoon earned an 81 SP for the effort, which kept him on the dirt.\u00a0 He stretched out to 8f for his 4<sup>th<\/sup> start, in a local MSW October 2018, and sat just \u00be length off the pace early, before pouncing in the backstretch and never looking back, opening up to win by 3 lengths and earning a career best 87 SP. Unfortunately, he struggled in his first NW2L test, unable to keep up with the pace and then falling to 10<sup>th<\/sup>.\u00a0 His most recent start, at 7f in a NW2L, was a stronger effort as he stayed steady throughout the race, but was missing that final push and finished 5<sup>th<\/sup>, 2 lengths behind the winner.\u00a0 Shipping Tycoon has, however, kept his speed figures in the mid 80s, as he heads into his first 3yo try here.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pedigree<\/span>: Written Tycoon, a G2-winning sprinter at age 2, currently stands for $110,000 in Australia (a significant increase from the $8,000 he initially stood for) and is the #8 ranked sire in Australia in 2018.\u00a0 He was a little late to the sim party, but got a big boost in mares in 2018 and covered his largest crop to date, with 105 runners thus far.\u00a0 That includes 56 winners, who are winning at a 17% rate, and the sire&#8217;s first 3 graded stakes winners in his sim stud career.\u00a0 Their success has been on the turf (including 1 who missed by 1\/2 length in the Breeders Bowl Juvy Filly Turf, and another who ran in the Breeders Bowl Juvy Turf), which is unsurprising, given that 71% of his progeny earnings have come on turf.\u00a0 There may be a bit of a distance limitation on his progeny though, as 65% of earnings have come in sprints and only 1 of the 3 graded winners has been successful at 8f.\u00a0 Shipping Cost is the 9<sup>th<\/sup> foal from No Shipping Cost, an incredibly successful 14yo dam, both on the track and in the breeding shed.\u00a0 The G2-placed, 2-time stakes winner won 7 of 23 races in her career, at was stakes placed an additional 4 times.\u00a0 Her success came primarily in dirt routes in the 9-10f range, though she was also excellent on the off-track, picking up a 12f stakes and running 3<sup>rd<\/sup> in the 9f <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">D-Day Distaff-G2<\/span> as a 4yo. Meanwhile, No Shipping Cost\u2019s progeny include 4 Graded Stakes winners and 1 more graded placed horse (and 6-time stakes winner).\u00a0 Among those are G1 winner<b> Low Shipping Cost<\/b> (<i>Street Cry (IRE)<\/i>), winner of the 6f <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">The Double F Memorial<\/span> (and 2<sup>nd<\/sup> in the Breeders Bowl Sprint) in 2012, and the G1 winning <b>Ship It Here<\/b> (<i>Medaglia D\u2019Oro<\/i>), who won the 9f-T <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Princess Di Cup<\/span> in 2016.\u00a0 Her progeny seem to take after their sire when it comes to best abilities, though 3 of the graded stakes winners scored in dirt sprints.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Expectations<\/span>: Shipping Tycoon seems to have found his home on the dirt, and now the only remaining question is the distance.\u00a0 His maiden score was very impressive and shows that he can get the 8f distance, the only question is how critical the pace situation is to his success.\u00a0 If the pace were soft, he\u2019s have a great chance here, but with some other speedballs running, there\u2019s a bit of a concern that he might get caught up.\u00a0 With that said, he\u2019s got a lot to live up to with his pedigree, and he may see a jump here in his first 3yo effort.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n<p><b>#2 &#8211; Maximum Fees <\/b>(Will Take Charge x Unbridled Storm TB [Dehere x Unbridled]) \u2013 Owned by <i>adschus03<\/i> \u2013 8\/1<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $33,720<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race History<\/span>: Maximum Fees may be 1 of only 3 in this race that has run a single time, but he did everything you would want a horse to do in one race.\u00a0 Debuting on New Year\u2019s Eve, December 31, 2018, in a 7f dirt MSW, Maximum Fees stalked the pace early, sitting 3 lengths back, before being urged forward and drawing off, cruising to a 1-3\/4 length victory.\u00a0 He earned an 88 SP in the victory.\u00a0 Maximum Fees will stretch out a little bit here for his first start as a 3yo.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pedigree<\/span>: Will Take Charge, a real-world freshman sire in 2018, ranked as the #5 first crop sire in the US.\u00a0 In the sim, Will Take Charge has been breeding for a few years, but his 2018 crop looks to have taken a bit of a drop from his previous few years, currently ranking #163.\u00a0 He has 96 3yos that have hit the track to date, with 31 winners succeeding at a 15% rate.\u00a0 A dirt sire (77% of earnings on dirt), Will Take Charge&#8217;s sim progeny have shown a slight preference for sprinting (57% of earnings in sprints), and that evenness is exemplified by his 3yo crop.\u00a0 His 2018 foals includes one stakes winner,\u00a0<strong>See The Wonder<\/strong>, who picked up a stakes win at 7.5f on the dirt in her first time stretching out in distance, and 2 stakes placed horses, the best of which,\u00a0<strong>Charging Bernie<\/strong>, was a close second in stakes at both 7.5f and 8f on the dirt. Unbridled Storm TB, the 7yo dam of Maximum Fees, was a very impressive horse during her career.\u00a0 She won 12 races in her 32 race career, including two G2 victories (both at 6.5f on the dirt as a 2yo) and 3 other stakes wins (2 of which were part of the Likin\u2019 It Local series in 2015).\u00a0 Although she was excellent in dirt sprints as a 2yo, she actually found her best running at 8.25-8.5f later in her career, a distance where she picked up 5 wins and saw her speed figures crack 100 22 times.\u00a0 Her only other foal to date, <b>Dehere Today TB<\/b> (<i>Tamarkuz)<\/i>, has also done her best racing in 8-9f dirt routes, where she has won 4 of 19 races (though her last few efforts, including 2 wins, have been in the claiming ranks).<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Expectations<\/span>: With only 1 race in his past, there\u2019s a little bit of unknown when it comes to Maximum Fees.\u00a0 Will that one race turn out to be his career best?\u00a0 Was he an early bloomer who excelled as a 2yo?\u00a0 Was that race just the tip of the iceberg for what he can do?\u00a0 We really won\u2019t know until we see him race some more.\u00a0 But one thing is pretty clear, and that\u2019s that his maiden win was a solid score and an impressive race.\u00a0 And his stalking style fits into this race very well.\u00a0 There\u2019s a bit of a pedigree question on the sire side as to whether he can get this 8f distance, but based on his first run, I\u2019m going to guess that 8f won\u2019t be an issue.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n<p><b>#3 &#8211; Left Off<\/b> (Tale of the Cat x Mu Shu Shi Shi [Super Saver x Tiznow]) \u2013 Owned by <i>mpm12<\/i> \u2013 8\/1<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race Record<\/span>: 10:1-4-2; $67,809<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race History<\/span>: The most experienced horse in the field, Left Off will be running in his 11<sup>th<\/sup> career race here.\u00a0 After 2 2<sup>nd<\/sup> place finishes in the MSW ranks at 5f (one, a hot race), Stuck in a Trappe was dropped into a $100K 5.5f dirt MCL, where he stalked the pace early before running on to win by a widening 1 length.\u00a0 That win in April 2018 earned him a decent 68 SP, and also a new owner.\u00a0 That new owner moved him back into the NW2L allowance ranks, where he struggled in some dirt sprints.\u00a0 He finally hit the board in a 5f turf NW1x, which got him back on track.\u00a0 He was shifted back to dirt and saw an impressive 11 point SP bounce in a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> place finish in a 7f dirt NW2L, before stretching out to 8.5f and running 2<sup>nd<\/sup> (in a race where today\u2019s competitor, <b><i>Mastery of Humor<\/i><\/b>, finished 5<sup>th<\/sup>)<b><i> <\/i><\/b>and 3<sup>rd<\/sup> in career races 8 and 9, earning a career high 88 SP 2 races back while stalking the pace in both efforts.\u00a0 His most recent race, however, at 9f, saw him struggle a bit, as he was unable to keep up with the competition and, after starting off mid-pack, dropped to the back of the pack, finishing 11<sup>th<\/sup>.\u00a0 He still earned a respectable 85 SP, but he\u2019ll look to bounce back here as he cuts back to 8f in his first 3yo effort.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pedigree<\/span>: 8yo dam Mu Shu Shi Shi was the winner of 6 races in her 28 race career, all of which were in dirt routes, primarily in the 8-9f range.\u00a0 She spent a decent amount of her career in claimers, though she did manage one allowance score.\u00a0 Her only other foal to race to date, <b>Reason To Say No<\/b> (<i>Century City (IRE)<\/i>), has been a successful Indiana-bred, winning 11 of 24 races thus far (mostly in the claiming, hot, and local levels).\u00a0 The wins have varied on surfaces with most coming in sprints, but her best efforts and speed figures have actually come in routes.\u00a0 She seems to be running in whatever local races are available, but it wouldn\u2019t surprise me if her preferred distance was 8-10f on the turf.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Expectations<\/span>: If you ignore the last race, Left Off has really turned a corner over the past 4 races.\u00a0 The oddsmakers agree, making this former claimer an 8\/1 choice in a solid field.\u00a0 The good news for him is that he tends to sit off the pace, so he shouldn\u2019t get caught up in the speed duel up front.\u00a0 The bad news is that he hasn\u2019t shown much of a finishing gear in his route efforts thus far, and because of the speed up front, he may be farther back early than he\u2019s used to.\u00a0 In his first 3yo effort, he showed that he doesn\u2019t really like being behind a lot of horses.\u00a0 That could be an issue here.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n<p><b>#4 &#8211; Seattle Burner <\/b>(Dialed In x Awesome Slewarooni [Awesome Again x Seattle Slew]) \u2013 Owned by <i>trotking<\/i> \u2013 8\/1<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race Record<\/span>: 3:1-0-1; $35,230<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race History<\/span>: Seattle Burner was successful for his owner right of the gate, battling for the lead in a 6.5f dirt MSW back in October 2018 for the first half of the race, before grabbing the lead and not looking back.\u00a0 He would go on to win that race by 1 length with a 77 SP.\u00a0 He tried to repeat at 6.5f in a NW2L allowance the next month, but used up too much of his energy trying to set the pace in a sprint, quickly tiring and ending up 8<sup>th<\/sup>, 6 lengths back.\u00a0 So instead, Seattle Burner was stretched out to 8.5f for his 3<sup>rd<\/sup> and most recent race.\u00a0 In that NW2L effort, he found it a little easier to grab the lead and set the pace, which he did for most of the race.\u00a0 He couldn\u2019t quite hold off one of the closers, and he fell to 3<sup>rd<\/sup>, 2.5 lengths back, but it was a very respectable performance that earned him a career high 90 SP, a 15 point jump over his previous race.\u00a0 The 2<sup>nd<\/sup> place horse from that most recent effort came back in an 8f open allowance and ran 2<sup>nd<\/sup> with a 96 SP.\u00a0 Seattle Burner also cuts back a half furlong here to try his hand at 8f for the first time.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pedigree<\/span>: Dialed In, winner of the 2011 Florida Derby, has been a relatively successful new sire in the real world, ranking #34 in 2018 (and the #3 third-crop sire).\u00a0 Standing for $25,000, his sim progeny have not been quite as successful as their real world counterparts.\u00a0 His foals ballooned in 2018, with 109 runners to date (well above his earlier numbers).\u00a0 Those 3yos have won at a 13% rate, with 46 winners to date.\u00a0 Among those are 4 stakes winners, all coming in sprints (3 dirt, 1 turf).\u00a0 Much like those stakes winners, his progeny generally are dirt sprinters, with 67% of earnings on the dirt and 58% in sprints.\u00a0 Thus far in his sim stud career, Dialed In has only had 1 graded stakes winner, <b>MTK Is Dialed In<\/b>,<b> <\/b>a G2 winner at 7f on the dirt.\u00a0 It\u2019s a little surprising, but Seattle Burner is only the first foal from 17yo dam Awesome Slewarooni, who was the winner of a 10f dirt residency-restricted stakes (and 5 other races) in her 31 race career.\u00a0 She last ran in 2009, but has been sitting on the shelf since then, which is impressive considering her pedigree and on-track success.\u00a0 That success was mostly achieved in 8-9f dirt routes, but she actually showed some solid ability late in her career on turf.\u00a0 An Awesome Again mare has been sent to Dialed In 4 other times in the past 4 years, all but one of whom have seen their best runs in dirt sprints.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Expectations<\/span>: Seattle Burner takes after his name.\u00a0 He\u2019s a burner, and he is expected to battle the hot pace in this race.\u00a0 My thought, based on the fact that his maiden win came out of a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> place positioning early, is that he might not have the speed of another in this race, but he also doesn\u2019t need the lead to win.\u00a0 In fact, he may be better off trying to save just enough juice to pick off a tiring pacesetter or two.\u00a0 The 90 SP that he put up last time is the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> highest in the field, I\u2019m just worried that he\u2019s gonna get too caught up on the front end and burn out here, and the sire side of his pedigree isn\u2019t helpful there.\u00a0 He\u2019s got talent though.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n<p><b>#5 &#8211; Gray Alliance<\/b> (Stephanoatsee x Gray Niner [Graydar x Forty Niner]) \u2013 Owned by <i>gnokenny1<\/i> \u2013 14\/1<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race Record<\/span>: 9:1-2-0; $42,233<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race History<\/span>: Grey Alliance is one of the wise old veterans in this race, having run 9 times in 2018.\u00a0 His maiden victory came back in his debut in January 2018 in a 4.5f MSW.\u00a0 There, he took on a field of 11 and set the pace, holding his lead and pulling away at the wire to win by 1 length.\u00a0 Since then, however, Grey Alliance has struggled at the NW2L level.\u00a0 In 8 tries thus far, he has managed only 2 2<sup>nd<\/sup> place finishes.\u00a0 On the plus side, he has seen a nice progression in speed figures since stretching out to routes, and 2 back posted a career high 86 SP in a 4<sup>th<\/sup> place finish (the winner from that race followed it with a 4<sup>th<\/sup> place finish in a G3).\u00a0 He comes into this race off of a solid 2<sup>nd<\/sup> place finish in an 8f NW2L allowance, where he finished 2 lengths back after stalking the pace early and earning an 85 SP.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pedigree<\/span>: Stephanoatsee, a son of A.P. Indy and half-brother to Shackleford, currently stands in NY but entered stud in 2016, so he has not seen any foals hit the real track yet.\u00a0 In the sim, the basement-priced sire has had 79 runners thus far, with 49 in the 2018 crop.\u00a0 Of those 49, 18 have won races at an 11% clip.\u00a0 Of all 79 runners, only 7 have thus far been successful at the allowance level, and only 1 of those has been outside of the Hot or Local levels.\u00a0 Most of his earnings have come in dirt sprints (63% dirt, 74% sprint), though the best speed figures from his progeny have come in longer races.\u00a0 Gray Niner, the 7yo he-mare of Gray Alliance, was the winner of 7 from 34 races in his career.\u00a0 His best races came in the 8-9f range, and he was a 3-time residency-stakes placed horse in dirt routes, earning a max speed figure of 105 in one of those 2<sup>nd<\/sup> place finishes. As a he-mare, Gray Alliance will be Gray Niner\u2019s only foal.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Expectations<\/span>: Gray Alliance has stalked the pace in his 3 prior route attempts, but it wasn\u2019t until his last effort that he found some success.\u00a0 He might need a softer pace to keep up with the front and still have something at the end, but his improvement in speed figures over his last 2 races indicates some potential here.\u00a0 The only question is whether he can take yet another jump as a 3yo.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n<p><b>#6 &#8211; Special Outing<\/b> (Ad Infinitum x Ivoj Nob Noj [Special Week x Kingmambo] \u2013 Owned by <i>magpies2<\/i> \u2013 24\/1<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $23,580<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race History<\/span>: Special Outing is one of 3 horses in this race with only 1 career race, but he is probably the most inexperienced.\u00a0 That 1 race was a 5 horse password-restricted MSW held by the URC residency.\u00a0 The race required a sire whose damsire was Miswaki, which resulted in 3 horses by The Factor.\u00a0 Of course, they were all upset by this Utah-bred who jumped out to the lead and never looked back.\u00a0 He opened up a 2 length lead early and held it the entire way around the 8f oval, earning a career best 75 SP in the process at the end of December 2018.\u00a0 Unfortunately, the field is a little suspect, as 4<sup>th<\/sup> and 5<sup>th<\/sup> from that race would each regress, running last and second to last in their next try at the MSW level.\u00a0 This will be Special Outing\u2019s first try against winners\u2026or even non-first time starters.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pedigree<\/span>: Ad Infinitum, a winner of 3 races in 13 starts, stands in Utah but I can\u2019t find much information about him in real life.\u00a0 It\u2019s a little easier in the sim, where his 3yo crop includes 13 runners to date.\u00a0 7 of those have been victorious, winning at an 8% clip (well below his older progeny\u2019s 15% rate), though none of those 7 have been successful above the HOT level.\u00a0 His 233 career sim foals has produced only 1 graded stakes winners, but he seemed to peak in the 2014-15 years (where he crop ballooned to 81 runners, before dropping back down).\u00a0 In the last 3 years, he has sired no stakes winners.\u00a0 In general, his progeny tend to be dirt sprinters (70% earnings on dirt, 67% in sprints).\u00a0 Special Outing is the 4<sup>th<\/sup> foal of 9yo mare Ivoj Nob Noj, a turf router who won 7 races in her 27 race career.\u00a0 That includes 2 stakes placed efforts, the most impressive of which was a career best 110 SP in a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> place finish in an 8f turf stakes.\u00a0 Her 3 older children have each taken down at least one allowance in their racing careers, but they\u2019re all across the board when it comes to preferred distances and surfaces.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Expectations<\/span>: Special Outing did exactly what he was bred to do \u2013 he won a residency race that clinched a competition for his owner, <i>Punter34<\/i>.\u00a0 But the world gets a little more difficult when leaving the friendly confines of residency-restricted races.\u00a0 And here, this is a tough field to test when tackling winners in open company for the first time.\u00a0 Still, it\u2019ll be very interesting to see how the race plays out.\u00a0 Special Outing set a pretty quick pace in his maiden win, and although I\u2019m guessing that he doesn\u2019t have the same speed as a couple of others in this race, I could easily be wrong and he could end up as the pacesetter.\u00a0 The benefits of this Future Stars Series are that when you\u2019ve got a runner with only 1 career race, and that race was an easy victory, you don\u2019t really know what\u2019s going to happen from there.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n<p><b>#7 &#8211; Giant Pioneer<\/b> (Pioneerof The Nile x Forty Niner x Giant\u2019s Causeway) \u2013 Owned by <i>ddkstables35<\/i> \u2013 6\/1 (<i>f-t<\/i>)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race Record<\/span>: 4:1-0-0; $36,642<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race History<\/span>: Giant Pioneer scored as the favorite in his debut at 6.5f on the good dirt track at NY in July 2018.\u00a0 In that race, he had no interest sitting in the gate, darting out as soon as the doors opened and continuing to widen his pacesetting lead, from \u00bd length, to 1 length, to 2 lengths, before finally easing up and winning by 1-1\/4, earning a 77 SP in the process.\u00a0 The 2<sup>nd<\/sup> place horse from that MSW would go on to break his maiden next time out at 8f.\u00a0 Giant Pioneer, meanwhile, stumbled when taking a big leap into stakes company, battling for the lead in the 7f event early before faltering late and finishing 11<sup>th<\/sup>.\u00a0 He took a drop in class and distance, trying a NW2L allowance at 6.5f next time out, where he again battled for the lead before dropping back to 4<sup>th<\/sup>.\u00a0 Stretching out to 8.5f in his most recent race, Giant Pioneer was finally able to use his sprint speed to get in front, but the jockey couldn\u2019t quite harness that speed and Giant Pioneer took off, opening up by 6 in the backstretch before faltering and finishing 3-3\/4 lengths back in 4<sup>th<\/sup>.\u00a0 His speed figures have been improving in each of his four races, however, and the most recent effort did earn him a career high 88 SP.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pedigree<\/span>: Pioneerof The Nile, who was a solid racehorse in his own right during his career, is probably most famous now as the sire of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, which led to a current stud fee of $110,000 for the #36 ranked US sire of 2018.\u00a0 He has also been a solid sim sire, as his 2018 crop currently ranks #49, the worst ranking of the past 4 years for the sire.\u00a0 That may change as his foals start hitting longer races, as 60% of his progeny earnings have come in route races, and the older progeny have seen much better speed figures in routes.\u00a0 They also prefer the dirt, with 74% of earnings from dirt races.\u00a0 The 3yo crop includes 136 runners to date, with 68 winners winning at an 18% rate, on par with Pioneerof The Nile\u2019s average.\u00a0 Among those runners are 3 stakes winners, all three of whom have found that success in route races (though 2 of those 3 horses earned those stakes wins on turf).\u00a0 The Pioneerof The Nile x Forty Niner cross has been used 11 times in the past 4 years (13 times total), including 2 other 3yos.\u00a0 Those 2 others have only won 1 combined race (from 10 races total), with one only having run in sprints and one finally hitting his stride in routes.\u00a0 The cross has one graded stakes winner, <b>Take What\u2019s Given<\/b>, a 4-time G1 winner who was 3<sup>rd<\/sup> in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly in 2017 and threw a clunker in the 2018 Breeders Bowl F and M Sprint (though she came into that race having won her last 4, including the G1 Chestnut Stakes and 2 other G1s).<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Expectations<\/span>: Giant Pioneer has a <i>lot<\/i> of speed, and it\u2019s pretty safe to say that he\u2019ll be using it to set the pace here.\u00a0 That\u2019s where he\u2019s had success in the past, and that\u2019s where he wants to be.\u00a0 The real question is whether he can settle down and save some of that speed for the final furlong. \u00a0O. Brim wasn\u2019t able to settle him last time, but hopefully the jockey has learned from the last race as he gets the mount again here. He cuts back a half furlong in distance here, which should help him, and now that he has a route race under his belt, he may be able to more properly harness that energy as a 3yo.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n<p><b>#8 &#8211; Landeskog<\/b> (Nyquist x Crestwood [Medaglia D\u2019Oro x Roar]) \u2013 Owned by <i>alohabold<\/i> \u2013 10\/1<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race Record<\/span>: 3:1-0-1; $39,340<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race History<\/span>: This race was made for Landeskog, as he is the horse that sponsor <i>alohabold<\/i> has entered here.\u00a0 And, not surprisingly, he looks like a good fit for this one.\u00a0 His 3 previous races have all been in sprints, and he started his career at 6.5f on the dirt.\u00a0 In that MSW, Landeskog sat towards the back early before showing a closing burst, finishing \u00be length back in 3<sup>rd<\/sup>.\u00a0 He stalled a bit in his second race at 7f where he caught a very solid field (the winner came back to run 2<sup>nd<\/sup> with a 91 SP in an allowance, and 3<sup>rd<\/sup> and 4<sup>th<\/sup> both followed up with MSW wins).\u00a0 But that 2<sup>nd<\/sup> race may have been a blip, as he came back in a 7f MSW in December 2018 and took things up a notch.\u00a0 He sat midpack early, about 4 lengths off the leads, before showing the same gear he had in his first race, closing, grabbing the lead, and then pulling away to win by 1 length and earned a career best 89 SP.\u00a0 Few have come back to the track from Landeskog\u2019s maiden victory, but the 4<sup>th<\/sup> place horse did break his maiden in his next race, at 4.5f on the turf.\u00a0 Landeskog will try routing for the first time here in his first race of 2019.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pedigree<\/span>: Nyquist\u2019s 2018 sim crop currently ranks 53<sup>rd<\/sup>, with 118 runners and 54 winners.\u00a0 Those 54 winners have been successful in 17.2% of their races.\u00a0 The 3yo crop includes 6 stakes winners, one of whom, <b>Nadera<\/b>, is a G1 winner who finished 6th in the 2018 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly and is currently the #1 ranked 3yo dirt route filly.\u00a0 The progeny of Nyquist prefer the dirt (83% earnings on dirt), and he has seen success in both sprints and routes.\u00a0 His highest speed figures have come in sprints for the 3yo class, though speed figures have improved at longer distances as his progeny age.\u00a0 Crestwood, Landeskog\u2019s 12yo dam, was a dirt sprinter through and through, winning 9 of 34 races in her career, all in dirt sprints.\u00a0 The 6 other foals from Crestwood, of which 3 have picked up allowance-level wins, have varied in their preferred distances, though almost all have preferred dirt to turf.\u00a0 Her best foal to date, <b>Highpointe (JPN)<\/b> (<i>Empire Maker<\/i>), did most of his best running at 10f, and is stakes placed at the distance (though he was beaten 14 lengths in that race).\u00a0 The Nyquist x Medaglia D\u2019Oro cross has been popular recently, used 5 other times in the past 2 years, and although none of those 5 have seen too much success on the track, there does seem to be an improvement as distances increase.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Expectations<\/span>: The second race of Landeskog\u2019s career is kind of a head scratcher, as he struggled to keep up with other horses, but when coming back at the same level 2 months later, he blew away his competition.\u00a0 I\u2019m left thinking that I should just ignore that race.\u00a0 And if I do that, Landeskog looks very strong on paper.\u00a0 He\u2019s a horse that will sit midpack or towards the back, but has the speed to close, and he looks like he\u2019ll get a hot pace in this race.\u00a0 His pedigree also suggests that he\u2019ll have no problem getting the 8f distance.\u00a0 He seems like a solid pick here.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n<p><b>#9 &#8211; Rained For Forty<\/b> (Bernardini x Forty Niner x Storm Cat) \u2013 Owned by <i>zkingab2<\/i> \u2013 7\/1<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race Record<\/span>: 4:1-0-1; $40,535<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race History<\/span>: If there\u2019s one thing you can say about Rained For Forty, this scratch bred horse is consistent.\u00a0 He went off as the 3\/1 second choice in his debut at 6.5f on the dirt in July 2018 and bolted out of the gate, never looking back.\u00a0 He opened up a 2 length lead late in the stretch before gearing down to win by 1-1\/2 lengths, earning a 79 SP. The 3<sup>rd<\/sup> place runner from that debut came back to break his maiden next time out at 8f. \u00a0For Rained For Forty, however, the jump to allowance ranks wasn\u2019t accompanied by a jump in ability.\u00a0 He has run roughly the same race 3 straight times, including a dirt sprint, a dirt route, and a turf route, sitting just off the pace early and staying steady without really threatening the winner.\u00a0 His most recent run, on the 6.5f turf, saw him earn a career high 82 SP in a 3<sup>rd<\/sup> place finish, but he has been in the 79-82 SP range in all 4 races.\u00a0 He returns to the dirt here for his first race of 2019.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pedigree<\/span>: 2006 Preakness Stakes winner Bernardini was the #33 ranked US sire in 2018 and currently stands for $50,000.\u00a0 His sim 3yo crop was not quite as good, currently ranking #51, which is one of Bernardini\u2019s lowest rankings.\u00a0 However, that may be due to the fact that his sim progeny love some added distance, with 70% of earnings coming in routes (and 67% on dirt), while the now-3yo crop has not had much of a chance to stretch out yet.\u00a0 Of the 167 runners from the 3yo class to date, 82 have found the winners circle, scoring at a 14.5% clip.\u00a0 That crop includes 3 stakes winners, two of which have been successful in dirt sprints. The third, <b>Glaring Tide<\/b>, also a Bernardini x Forty Niner colt, took home a turf route stakes.\u00a0 Rained For Forty is one scratch bred that looks like he can run for days with the addition of Forty Niner in the DS slot.\u00a0 Forty Niner is the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> most popular DS for Bernardini (trailing only Storm Cat, Rained For Forty\u2019s DDS), with 71 sim horses being the product of that cross.\u00a0 21 of those have been bred in the last 4 years, and 3 of those 21 are stakes winners (2 in dirt routes, 1 in a turf route).\u00a0 In addition, 2 of the other 20 are also full Bernardini x Forty Niner x Storm Cat horses; 4yo <b>Faces of Arya<\/b>, a winner of 2 9-10f dirt routes from 10 races, and 4yo <b>Mystic Number, <\/b>a winner of 2 turf routes in 14 starts.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Expectations<\/span>: Rained For Forty had an interesting approach in his first 8f race, where he sat farther off the pace than he has in any of his 3 sprints.\u00a0 To me, that suggests one of two things \u2013 either he\u2019ll try to be more forwardly placed in this race, or he might not have the stamina to get 8f.\u00a0 The pedigree suggests that stamina might not be a problem, so I would instead expect Rained For Forty to battle for the lead here.\u00a0 But just because a pedigree suggests something doesn\u2019t mean that it happens every time, so we\u2019ll see if he\u2019s able to succeed at this distance.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n<p><b>#10 &#8211; Gold Medal Champ <\/b>(Best of the Bests\u00a0 x Bilodeau [Medaglia D\u2019Oro x Distorted Humor]) \u2013 Owned by <i>boileau8<\/i> \u2013 22\/1<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race Record<\/span>: 4:1-0-1; $27,960<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race History<\/span>: After a 6<sup>th<\/sup> place debut in a local MSW, Gold Medal Champ actually jumped up to the local allowance ranks, and held his own with a 3<sup>rd<\/sup> place finish in a 5f NW1x. He returned to the MSW level and promptly struggled, finishing 7<sup>th<\/sup> at 7f, before stretching out to 8f in December 2018 and scoring in a big way, winning by 1-1\/2 lengths and earning an 84 SP, a 15 point jump from his prior best effort.\u00a0 That most recent effort saw Gold Medal Champ sit towards the back early, before moving up on the far turn and grabbing the lead in the stretch, pulling away from other closers.\u00a0 This was his first time dropping that far out early, but he showed an additional gear in doing so.\u00a0 Unfortunately, the field from his most recent race doesn\u2019t seem to be the strongest, as 3 of his competitors headed the MCL ranks right after, and only 1 broke his maiden there.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pedigree<\/span>: Best of the Bests (IRE), a son of Machiavellian that died in 2015, was the #85 ranked Canadian sire in 2018.\u00a0 He was a late removal in the sim, so the 2018 crop was his final one.\u00a0 That crop includes 11 runners, and Gold Medal Champ is the only winner among them, leaving his 3yos at a 3% win rate.\u00a0 Historically his horses have aged a little better, as the 3 previous crops have all seen 10 winners from the 12-13 foal crops.\u00a0 Best of the Bests\u2019 foals tend to prefer turf routes (64% earnings on turf, 58% in routes), though one of his 3 career graded stakes winners (of 302 total runners) did so on the dirt. \u00a0Gold Medal Champ is the second foal from 7yo mare Bilodeau.\u00a0 Bilodeau was a multiple restricted-stakes placed filly in her racing career, winning 2 of 22 career races.\u00a0 Both wins, and her best career races, came at the 8-9f distances on the dirt.\u00a0 Her first son, <b>Nile of Gold<\/b> (<i>Pioneerof the Nile)<\/i>, has yet to hit the board at the allowance level in 9 tries (12 career starts), though he has shown some of the same closing ability as Gold Medal Champ showed in his most recent race.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Expectations<\/span>: Gold Medal Champ\u2019s most recent race, his maiden breaking run, was a significant style change and one that worked out well for him there.\u00a0 It was also his first route effort, so it\u2019s possible that he just needed the extra distance to achieve his full potential.\u00a0 However, I\u2019m a little skeptical given the field that he was up against, and I think he\u2019ll need to outkick some better horses here if he has a chance to win.\u00a0 Still, if he can improve on his last race in his first 3yo attempt, he\u2019s got a solid chance here.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n<p><b>#11 &#8211; Mastery of Humor<\/b> (Mastery x Comare [Distorted Humor x Heatseeker]) \u2013 Owned by <i>waiting<\/i> \u2013 15\/1<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race Record<\/span>: 5:1-0-0; $34,694<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race History<\/span>: Mastery of Humor looked solid in his first effort at 7f back in July 2018, where he sat just off the pace early before pouncing and pulling away to win by 1-1\/2 lengths.\u00a0 In that race, he earned a strong 79 SP.\u00a0 The horse he beat in that one would stretch out to take a MSW and a NW2L in 2 of his next 3 races.\u00a0 Mastery of Humor, however, seemed to regress, first struggling in an 8f NW2L tiring to 6<sup>th<\/sup>, and then looking sluggish in a 5f NW2L, seeing speed figures drop into the 60s in both efforts.\u00a0 He has tried NW2L races 2 more times since hitting rock bottom in that 5f race, once at 8.5f on the dirt and once at 7f on the turf.\u00a0 The results weren\u2019t there either time, finishing 5<sup>th<\/sup> in the 8.5f race and a dull 7<sup>th<\/sup> in the turf effort.\u00a0 However, he earned a career high 82 SP in the 8.5f dirt try 2 races back (in which today\u2019s competitor, <b><i>Left Off<\/i><\/b>, ran 3<sup>rd<\/sup>, and which saw the winner try, but falter, in a stakes the next time out), and an 80 SP in the turf race, so his trainer has done a good job getting Master of Humor refocused.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pedigree<\/span>: Mastery, a multiple G1 winner at 7f-8.5f, entered stud in 2018 so has no real life progeny to hit a track.\u00a0 In the sim, however, his freshman year was a decent showing, as he has 66 horses to have hit the track to date.\u00a0 From those 66, 31 found the winner\u2019s circle, winning at a 14% rate.\u00a0 None of those 66 runners has found the ultimate success in stakes races, but 2 have gotten close (one in a residency-restricted stakes).\u00a0 Mastery\u2019s progeny have earned 72% of earnings on dirt thus far, and the speed figures of his 3yo crop indicate abilities in both sprints and routes.\u00a0 Mastery of Humor is the second foal from 8yo mare Comare, who was the winner of 6 from 32 races in her career.\u00a0 Although she bounced back and forth between dirt sprints and routes, and has a 4<sup>th<\/sup> place finish in a 6.5f dirt stakes, her best races seemed to come at the 8.5-9f distance.\u00a0 Likewise, her first foal, <b>Active Shooter<\/b> (<i>Bernardini<\/i>), has also found her best running in dirt routes (or longer), with the stamina to easily get the 10-12f distances.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Expectations<\/span>: In an ideal world, Mastery of Humor would probably like to sit just off the pace.\u00a0 But the pace in this race is going to be fast, and Mastery of Humor doesn\u2019t have the gate speed of some of the others in this race, so he\u2019s more likely to sit mid-pack here.\u00a0 That could be an issue for him, as he has never really showed much of a second gear to get to the leaders, and will instead need them to come to him.\u00a0 He\u2019ll hope for a turf to dirt bump in this race, but the field here might be a little too tough for him at this early point in his career.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n<p><b>#12 &#8211; Neptune Beach <\/b>(Savabeel (AUS) x Thunda Tee Gee [Thunder Gulch x Bugatti Reef]) \u2013 Owned by <i>gustav<\/i> \u2013 17\/1<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race Record<\/span>: 8:1-1-1; $55,076<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race History<\/span>: Neptune Beach was eased into racing and has seen increasing distances for 8 straight races.\u00a0 So it\u2019s tough to tell how much of his early slowness was due to being a young 2yo or not having enough distance.\u00a0 He frequently showed he had more stamina, but it wasn\u2019t until race #7, an MSW at 8.5f and his second try at routing, that he finally broke through.\u00a0 Following a 2<sup>nd<\/sup> place finish in an 8f MSW, he came back in November 2018 to show his extreme closing kick, dropping over 10 lengths out of the race early before flying home in the stretch and winning by 1-3\/4, earning a career best 86 SP in the process.\u00a0 3<sup>rd<\/sup> in that maiden would come back to break his maiden with a 93 SP next time out.\u00a0 Neptune Beach\u2019s first try at the NW2L level in his 2019 debut didn\u2019t go quite as well, as he dropped back early and had no kick, beating 12 lengths.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pedigree<\/span>: Savabeel, the 2004 Cox Plate winner, currently stands in NZ for $60,000 and was the #27 ranked Oceanic sire in 2018.\u00a0 He may be New Zealand&#8217;s leading sire in the real world, but his sim progeny have not fared quite as well. His 2018 crop is currently ranked #228, with 25 winners from 67 runners who have succeeded at a 10% rate.\u00a0 The 3yo group includes only one stakes placed horse, Ryans Approach, who has been successful at the 5.5-6f turf distance, where he has missed in 3 ungraded stakes races by a combined 1-1\/4 length.\u00a0 The turf is unsurprising, as 75% of his progeny earnings have come on the sod, although his foals do see to get better with distance, as 58% of earnings have come in routes.\u00a0 As a note, Savabeel is only 3 years removed from a #46 ranked crop in 2015, which includes 15 stakes winners (and 3 Graded Stakes winners) from 120 runners. Neptune Beach\u2019s dam, 11yo Thunda Tee Gee, was a winner of 3 from 31 career races.\u00a0 She was 5<sup>th<\/sup> in her only stakes try, at 9.5f on the dirt, but found most of her success at the 8-9f distances.\u00a0 Neptune Beach is her 6<sup>th<\/sup> foal, and although none have reached the stakes level, 3 of the 5 have succeeded in the allowance ranks, and all three of those have found their best runs in dirt routes. Savabeel has been used with a Thunder Gulch mare 3 times (none in the past 4 years), and the 2 others are a combined 3 for 58 lifetime.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Expectations<\/span>: Neptune Beach is going to need a fast pace to run into, as he is a deep closer.\u00a0 He cuts back in distance here, which could be worrisome as it gives him less time to catch the leaders, but he\u2019s shown some skill at this distance in the maiden ranks and may be able to do it again here.\u00a0 There\u2019s definitely a red flag from his first race as a 3yo, where he regressed from his 2yo campaign, but it\u2019s possible that 9f is just too far for him, in which case this race sets up perfectly.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n<p><b>#13 &#8211; Serve In Honor<\/b> (Nyquist x Lincecums Hair [To Honor and Serve x Medaglia D\u2019Oro]) \u2013 Owned by <i>revnhusker<\/i> \u2013 7\/1<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race Record<\/span>: 2:1-1-0; $45,895<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race History<\/span>: He may only have 2 races under his belt, but Serve In Honor comes into this race as arguably the most distinguished in the field.\u00a0 He began his career in November 2018 in a 6f dirt MSW and sat about 4 lengths off a loose leader before his jockey pounced in the stretch, pulling past all of the other horses and taking the winner\u2019s photo 1 length in front of the horse that sat 2<sup>nd<\/sup> early.\u00a0 That 2<sup>nd<\/sup> place horse came back to break his maiden at 6f next time out, and then followed that up with a 3<sup>rd<\/sup> place finish in a 6.5f dirt stakes.\u00a0 So it\u2019s unsurprising that Serve In Honor earned an 88 SP for his debut win.\u00a0 He was then stretched out to 8.5f in his 2<sup>nd<\/sup> race, a NW2L allowance, and he again sat about 4 lengths off of a loose leader.\u00a0 That loose leader ran out of gas, but another closer had the first run and pulled away, leaving Serve In Honor to settle for 2<sup>nd<\/sup>, 2-1\/2 lengths behind the winner, earning a career (and field) best 92 SP.\u00a0 The winner from Serve In Honor\u2019s most recent race, <b>A.P. Exaggerator<\/b>, is the 7\/1 second choice in a 8.5f dirt stakes on Saturday.\u00a0 Meanwhile, Serve In Honor will repeat at the NW2L level.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pedigree<\/span>: Nyquist is discussed above under <b><i>Landeskog<\/i><\/b>.\u00a0 Serve In Honor is the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> foal from 8yo mare Lincecums Hair, a horse that spent nearly her entire career in dirt sprints.\u00a0 That career included 12 wins in 32 races, though most of that time was spent in the claiming ranks (only 2 of those wins were in allowances).\u00a0 Her first foal, <b>M. H. Gilford<\/b> (<i>Shackleford<\/i>), likewise has spent his time in dirt sprints, though only the only one of his 4 wins in 31 career starts that was at the Allowance level was in a NW1x.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Expectations<\/span>: Serve In Honor may not have the flash of some of the other pedigrees in this race, and he might not have the gate speed of others, but this horse has some serious potential.\u00a0 He has already put up two very strong races, and his running style where he sits several lengths off the pacesetter should help here.\u00a0 In his last 2 races, he has had to deal with loose pacesetters, and he\u2019s handled both of them.\u00a0 This time, he should get a heated pace duel, making it even easier for him to catch those.\u00a0 The only question is whether a closer will get first run over him.\u00a0 But him hitting the board here is your best bet of the race.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n<p><b>#14 &#8211; Stuck In A Trappe<\/b> (Trappe Shot x Charmed II [Silver Charm x Gone West]) \u2013 Owned by <i>fabman49<\/i> \u2013 15\/1<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $23,580<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Race History<\/span>: Stuck in a Trappe debuted back in December 2018 in a 5f dirt MSW.\u00a0 In that race, like others in this field, he blitzed out of the gate and grabbed the lead, sitting 1-1\/2 lengths in front the entire way around the oval.\u00a0 He held on to win by 1-1\/4, earning an 83 SP.\u00a0 The pace in that 5f race may have been a little slower than some of the others put up in this field, or the field wasn\u2019t particularly strong, as the 2<sup>nd<\/sup> place horse chased Stuck in a Trappe the entire way around the course and remained another 1 length clear of 3<sup>rd<\/sup>.\u00a0 The only horses to have come back to the track from that race were ones towards the back of the pack, who repeated in back-of-the-pack performances in their next races.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Pedigree<\/span>: Trappe Shot, a dirt sprinter in real life, stands for $7,500 but has really come on in the last couple of years, ranking #61 in the US in 2018.\u00a0 A bargain sire, Trappe Shot was used as a sire 20 times in his 2018 crop, a drop of over 50% from previous years.\u00a0 Of those 20, 8 have picked up a win (at a 13% rate), with the best thus far, <b>Surprise Packet<\/b>, being stakes placed at 8.5f on the dirt.\u00a0 Trappe Shot\u2019s progeny are primarily dirt sprinters like their father, with 77% of earnings coming on the dirt and 59% in sprints.\u00a0 Historically, Trappe Shot has had 4 graded stakes winners in the sim, with his best, <b>Silver Shot K<\/b>, most successful in 8-9f dirt routes (she was 2<sup>nd<\/sup> in both the 2014 Bluegrass Oaks and the 2015 Breeders Bowl Distaff).<b> <\/b>It was an interesting journey to this breeding for 19yo mare Charmed II, as she was retired back in 2005, but Stuck in a Trappe is only her 2<sup>nd<\/sup> foal.\u00a0 Her career included 34 races, of which she was victorious in 5.\u00a0 She was a sprinter throughout her career, with 4 of her wins coming in dirt sprints.\u00a0 Most of those were in the claiming and starter allowance ranks, as she only picked up 1 allowance win in her career (which came in a turf sprint).\u00a0 Charmed II showed some ability on turf early in her career, but her fastest races came on dirt.\u00a0 Her first foal, 16yo <b>Crazyrider<\/b> (<i>Tapit<\/i>), was much more successful in her career, winning 11 of 40 races, all in dirt sprints.\u00a0 Crazyrider really loved the claiming ranks, as she was 6 for 6 in dirt sprint claimers, but those 11 wins do include 3 allowance-level wins.\u00a0 Crazyrider has been a very popular mare in the sim, having been bred 10 times, but Charmed II got lost in the shuffle so it\u2019ll be interesting to see if time has been generous to this mare.\u00a0 The Trappe Shot x Silver Charm cross has been used 2 other times in the sim (both 5 years ago), and one of those, <b>Ole Conrad Proctor<\/b>, is a multiple stakes placed horse at 7f on the dirt.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Expectations<\/span>: With one race under his belt, Stuck In A Trappe is a little bit unknown.\u00a0 His first race was a solid victory, but the field looks possibly suspect and this is a big leap from 5f to 8f while taking on winners for the first time.\u00a0 There are two main red flags here.\u00a0 The first is that he looks like another sprint pacesetter in a field with several of them.\u00a0 The other is that both his sire and his dam seem to prefer dirt sprints, making it very questionable whether he can get the distance here.\u00a0 Stuck in a Trappe is definitely one to watch, but my uneducated guess is that he tires out in this race.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s your field for this California NW2L Allowance.\u00a0 I\u2019m notoriously bad at judging pace here in the sim, but this race looks to me like it sets up to be a fast one.\u00a0 <b>Giant Pioneer<\/b> looks like he\u2019ll do anything to be the pacesetter, but I can easily see <b>Seattle Burner, Stuck in a Trappe, Rained For Forty<\/b>, <b>Shipping Tycoon, <\/b>and <b>Special Outing<\/b> battling for it as well.\u00a0 This race looks pretty wide open to me.\u00a0 I\u2019m gonna go with (1) <b>Serve In Honor<\/b>, (2) <b>Landeskog<\/b>, (3) <b>Maximum Fees<\/b>.\u00a0 But if there\u2019s one takeaway from these past few weeks, it\u2019s that I don\u2019t know what I\u2019m talking about when it comes to these predictions.<\/p>\n<p>Other races to watch this weekend:<\/p>\n<p>1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/oneentry_inline.asp?raceid=2201832\">Kentucky \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 6f (Fillies)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/oneentry_inline.asp?raceid=2203937\">Florida \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 7.5f (Fillies)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>3)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/oneentry_inline.asp?raceid=2204709\">California \u2013 Allowance @ 8f<\/a><\/p>\n<p>4)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/oneentry_inline.asp?raceid=2214888\">Berkshire (ENG) \u2013 Allowance @ 8.25f (Fillies)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>5)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/oneentry_inline.asp?raceid=2211278\">Florida \u2013 Allowance NW2L @ 8f-T<\/a><\/p>\n<p>6)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/oneentry_inline.asp?raceid=2210878\">Kentucky \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 8.5f<\/a><\/p>\n<p>7)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/oneentry_inline.asp?raceid=2211904\">Thailand \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 7.5f-T<\/a><\/p>\n<p>8)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/oneentry_inline.asp?raceid=2211513\">Texas \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 7f-T<\/a><\/p>\n<p>9)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/oneentry_inline.asp?raceid=2210595\">New Jersey \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 7f-T (Fillies)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>First, a quick recap from last week.\u00a0 I may have actually gotten the pace situation right for a change, as<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":384,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[230,195,229],"class_list":["post-47912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews","tag-3yo","tag-california","tag-future-stars-series"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/384"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=47912"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47912\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47920,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47912\/revisions\/47920"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=47912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=47912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=47912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}