{"id":47844,"date":"2019-01-25T18:41:07","date_gmt":"2019-01-25T23:41:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=47844"},"modified":"2019-01-25T18:41:07","modified_gmt":"2019-01-25T23:41:07","slug":"future-stars-series-12-colts-tackle-the-turf-in-a-nw2l-in-paris","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=47844","title":{"rendered":"Future Stars Series – 12 Colts Tackle The Turf in a NW2L in Paris"},"content":{"rendered":"

First, a quick recap of last week\u2019s race.\u00a0 I predicted a hot pace with at least 5 different horses battling for the lead.\u00a0 So of course, the pace ended up being very relaxed, with only 1 horse even bothering to try to grab the lead.\u00a0 That horse was Silly Magic<\/b>, who ran the first quarter mile in a mild 23.10.\u00a0 Bospityev<\/b> sat just off of that in 2nd<\/sup>, and then pounced on the far turn, grabbing the lead from Silly Magic and never looking back.\u00a0 Bospityev pulled ahead and drew away to win by 1-1\/2 lengths, earning a 92 SP as the 14\/1 second longshot and showing that she could handle route races just fine (again, contrary to my earlier prediction).\u00a0 Betting favorite Henty Iron<\/b> was the only horse from off the pace that showed any speed, as she made a solid move in the stretch to finish 2nd<\/sup> and looking like she might enjoy some longer distances.\u00a0 Silly Magic<\/b> dropped back a little, but still put in a solid run, finishing 2 lengths behind the winner in 3rd<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

This week, the Future Stars Series goes international! We head to the City of Lights, Paris, France, where 12 3yo colts have gotten together to compete in a NW2L Allowance at 8 furlongs on the turf.\u00a0 The field is:<\/p>\n

#1 – Sunset Ave<\/b> (Gleneagles x Consul at Sunset [Lemon Drop Kid x Starcraft (NZ)]) – Owned by bonk28<\/i> – 15\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $3,000<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Sunset Ave made a late debut as a 2yo, kicking off his career in December 2018 in a HOT MSW in Ireland.\u00a0 The race was at 8 furlongs on the turf, but it was a “get ready and go” hot race, so only 4 runners entered, 2 of which were *CPU horses.\u00a0 The race was the home of 2 debuts from non-CPU horses though, and Sunset Ave sat just off one of the CPU horses early, before that colt tired and Sunset Ave found himself way in front.\u00a0 He cruised to a 2-1\/2 length victory, earning a 74 SP in the process.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Gleneagles, a champion turf miler, entered stud in 2016 so does not have any horses to hit the track yet.\u00a0 In the sim, he has been solid so far.\u00a0 His 2018 class includes 109 runners to date, of which 49 have scored a victory, winning at a 13.5% rate (well below the 19% of his older classes).\u00a0 Gleneagles sim progeny seem to improve as they age, which makes some sense, given that his progeny prefer turf routes (85% earnings on turf, 62% in routes).\u00a0 The 3yo crop includes 2 stakes winners, one of whom, Paradise Dreams, took home The Juvenile Filly-G1 at 8f-T back in December, and is currently the #4 ranked 3yo turf route filly.\u00a0 Also among his first 3 sim crops is Sim Eclipse Award winner Walder Frey, who won the 2017 3yo Turf Colt of the Year.\u00a0 Sunset Ave is the first foal from Consul at Sunset, a 6yo stakes placed mare, who won 13 of 29 races in her career.\u00a0 Most of those races came in turf routes, where she excelled at longer 9-12f races.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: It’s tough to know what to expect here, when this colt is coming straight from a hot race with minimal competition.\u00a0 But with that said, Sunset Ave did what you would want to see a horse do at that level; he dominated a race.\u00a0 The speed figure may not be at the top of this race, but it didn’t need to be.\u00a0 I don’t expect him to be on the lead here, and I expect him to be midpack, several lengths off the lead.\u00a0 At 15\/1, he may be the 2nd longshot on the board, but he’s a live one.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

#2 – Kymarc Cap<\/b> (Red Rocks x Alycap [Marscay x Alydar]) \u2013 Owned by kymar26<\/i> \u2013 8\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 5:1-2-1; $60,160<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Gelded before his first start, Kymarc Cap took 4 races to finally break his maiden, though he was in each of the 3 races prior to that win.\u00a0 In his debut race at 5.5f-T, Kymarc Cap sat midpack early and then closed, pulling within 1 length of the winner, who would go on to win a residency stakes (and open stakes placed), and finished \u00bc length ahead of a horse who would go on to be stakes placed at 8.5f-T.\u00a0 In his second race, at 6f-T, he finished 3rd<\/sup>, 1 length behind a horse that is G3-placed at 8f-T (though still a maiden).\u00a0 In Kymarc Cap\u2019s 4th<\/sup> career race, in October 2018, he was finally stretched out to 8f-T, and he showed his affinity for longer races.\u00a0 He stalked the pace early, and then pounced in the backstretch, pulling ahead and opening up lengths on the field, before cruising to a 2-1\/2 length victory and earning an 87 SP, a career best.\u00a0 His first try at the NW2L level, however, did not go as well.\u00a0 Kymarc Cap didn\u2019t break as well in the 8.5f-T race, and had to sit midpack early.\u00a0 He couldn\u2019t keep up with some of the others, and finished 8th<\/sup>, earning an 83 SP.\u00a0 The winner of the NW2L repeated in a 7f-T stakes on January 20, while the 3rd<\/sup> and 6th<\/sup> place finishers also came back to win NW2L races next time out.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Kymarc Cap is a member of Red Rocks\u2019 last crop, as the sire passed away in 2018.\u00a0 Winner of the 2006 Breeders\u2019 Cup Turf, Red Rocks excelled in long distance turf races in his career.\u00a0 In the sim, his 3yo crop includes 22 runners, of which 9 have won with an 8% win rate (well below the 15% win rate that Red Rocks progeny typically have).\u00a0 One member of the crop has a 4th<\/sup> place finish in a stakes race, but otherwise there is nothing of note to date.\u00a0 In total, Red Rocks has 1 Graded Stakes winner in the sim, 8yo gelding Wu Tang Adjacent<\/b> (Dynaformer<\/i>), who could run all day and was strongest at 16f.\u00a0 Kymarc Cap is the also the last foal of 21yo mare Alycap, a winner of 2 from 19 races in her career.\u00a0 A pure sprinter, her past performances show that she was on the rise as a 5yo when she was finally retired.\u00a0 Her best foal of the 12 is 12yo multiple G3-winner Argyle Star<\/b> (Elusive Quality<\/i>), who was very successful at 8f-T in his career (including a 2nd<\/sup> place finish in the G1 Sydney Mile<\/span> in 2011).\u00a0 Additionally, Alycap has 1 other stakes winner (a dirt sprinter) and 3 stakes-placed horses.\u00a0 Kymarc Cap is the full brother of 4yo Red Alycap<\/b> (Red Rocks<\/i>), who was stakes placed at 6.5f-T as a 2yo in a heavily raced career that saw her run 37 times in her 2yo-3yo seasons.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Kymarc Cap would like to sit just off the pace in this race, and hopes that the pace won\u2019t be too quick up front.\u00a0 If he can sit up front early, he\u2019s got the ability to get the first run on some of the others coming from behind.\u00a0 He\u2019s faced stiff competition in the past and has shown some ability that could put him near the top today.\u00a0 The question is whether he can bounce back from the dull 8th<\/sup> last time out.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

#3 \u2013 English Towne<\/b> (Wootton Bassett (GB) x Rockette [Street Cry x El Prado]) \u2013 Owned by gunbow<\/i> \u2013 11\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 5:1-0-0; $36,810<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: English Towne kicked off his career in rough fashion, missing the board in each of his first 3 starts on turf.\u00a0 But after getting 1 8f race under his belt, he showed some improvement in his 4th<\/sup> race, an 8.5f-T MSW back in October 2018.\u00a0 In that race, English Towne caught a slow pace and sat 3rd<\/sup>, 1-1\/4 off of the pace early.\u00a0 From there, he moved up and grabbed the lead in the stretch, pulling away to win by 1-1\/2 and earning an 81 SP (the pacesetter stuck around, finishing 2nd<\/sup>).\u00a0 He came back in an 8.5f-T Local NW1x, but couldn\u2019t quite hang with the top horses in that one, gaining ground briefly before finishing a well-beaten 4th<\/sup>.\u00a0 It was a solid field, as the winner came back to run 2nd<\/sup> in a 9.5f-T stakes and the 2nd<\/sup> place horse came back to take a 9f-T NW2L by 2-1\/4 lengths, and English Towne earned a career-best 84 SP for the 4th<\/sup> place effort.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Wootton Bassett (GB) was a G1 winner at 7f back in 2010, and his stud fee increased to $40,000 this year after some successful real-world progeny (up from $6,000 initially).\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop includes 45 winners from 88 runners, winning at a 16.5% clip, well above his 12% overall rate.\u00a0 His 2018 class is currently ranked #95 overall, which is his highest ranking to date, indicating that his abilities may have been boosted in recent years.\u00a0 Among the 2018 class is 1 stakes winner (1 of only 2 all-time for Wootton Bassett) and 1 G2-placed gelding, both of which have been most successful in 6f turf sprints.\u00a0 That\u2019s where Wootton Bassett\u2019s progeny typically live, with 68% of earnings coming on turf and 69% in sprints.\u00a0 Rockette, the 15yo dam of English Towne, spent most of her 30 race career in longer turf races (10f-12f), and she picked up a stakes placing in a 4 horse field.\u00a0 In total, she was 3 for 30.\u00a0 English Towne is the 10th<\/sup> foal of Rockette, and 8 of the previous 9 have picked up at least 1 allowance win.\u00a0 Rocky Rockette<\/b> (Stormy Atlantic<\/i>) is the only stakes winner of the group, succeeding in both turf and dirt sprints, though in general her progeny have found easy spots in which to find success.\u00a0 Wootton Bassett was bred to a Street Cry mare 3 times in 2018, and although none have yet won above the maiden level, all 3 (including English Towne) have been improving as they stretch out on the turf.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: English Towne is another one in this race that is hoping for a soft pace.\u00a0 He likely won\u2019t sit on the pace, preferring to stalk or come from mid-pack, but he doesn\u2019t seem to have the closing kick as some others.\u00a0 So he\u2019ll need some help on the front end to keep himself closer and the closers at bay.\u00a0 He last race may look a little concerning based on the result, but he caught 2 solid horses and narrowly missed 3rd<\/sup>, so he may be able to move forward off of that run.\u00a0 If he does, he\u2019s got some potential here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n

#4 \u2013 Monk Brew<\/b> (Redoute\u2019s Choice x Dynaformer x Kingmambo) \u2013 Owned by deyoto10<\/i> \u2013 5\/1 (f-t<\/i>)<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 2:1-0-0; $31,484<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Monk Brew began his career in October 2018, entering a huge field of 18 in a 4.5f turf MSW.\u00a0 He showed some ability, running 5th<\/sup>, but it wasn\u2019t until he was given some room to run in his 2nd<\/sup> race that he really hinted at promise.\u00a0 In December 2018, Monk Brew was stretched out to 8f-T, and he showed that he loved the extra distance.\u00a0 There, he stalked the early pace, sitting 1 length off of the pace in 3rd<\/sup>, but pounced in the far turn, taking the lead and not looking back.\u00a0 He headed to the winner\u2019s circle with an expanding 1-3\/4 length win and earning a career best 90 SP.\u00a0 3rd<\/sup> in that MSW came back to finish 2nd<\/sup> in a 9f-T MSW next time out, with a 92 SP.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Redoute\u2019s Choice was the #20 ranked Australian sire in 2018, and his sim crop is similarly impressive, currently ranked #24.\u00a0 His 3yo sim crop includes 130 runners and 73 winners, who are winning at a 20% rate.\u00a0 Among those 73 winners are 6 stakes winners and an additional 7 stakes placed horses.\u00a0 The best to date is Choose Your Dream<\/b>, winner of a G2 and twice 2nd<\/sup> in G1s, all at 6f on the turf.\u00a0 Redoute\u2019s Choice does tend to throw turf horses (73% earnings on turf), though his charges usually prefer routes (62% in routes).\u00a0 His 3yo crop, however, has been stronger in sprints, though one would expect that as more progress to longer races, they will find more success there.\u00a0 The Redoute\u2019s Choice x Dynaformer cross has been particularly popular and successful, with 26 foals bred in the past 4 years.\u00a0 Of those 26, 5 are stakes winners (3 graded winners), and one, Dariel<\/b>, may be familiar to you, as he was the 2016 Sim Horse of the Year (also 3yo Turf Male of the Year).\u00a0 The cross was used 3 times in 2018, with one horse still looking for her maiden win and the other a winner of 3 from 6 races (primarily turf sprints).<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Much like Redoute\u2019s Choice\u2019s progeny seem to get better as the distances increase, so too has Monk Brew.\u00a0 His last race was a dominant performance, and if he can repeat that here, he should be in great shape in this race.\u00a0 Expect him to sit just off the pace and pounce, as he makes his first effort of his 3yo campaign.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#5 – Bomb Cyclone<\/b> (Charm Spirit (IRE) x Battle Rages On [Diesis x Lyphard]) \u2013 Owned by abcde8<\/i> \u2013 12\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 6:1-0-1; $31,767<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Bomb Cyclone, a French-bred horse, has liked the home sod here, where she picked up her only win in her 2nd<\/sup> start, a local-bred MSW at 5.5f-T back in March of 2018.\u00a0 Unfortunately, that maiden race doesn\u2019t look particularly strong, as only a few of the 11 horses have managed to pick up a win since that time.\u00a0 In his last race, Bomb Cyclone tried routing for the first time in a local NW2L here in Paris, but struggled to keep up with the field for the full 8.5f, falling to midpack early and continuing to lose ground, finishing 8th<\/sup> of 9, 8-3\/4 lengths back, with a 78 SP.\u00a0 The winner in that one, who earned an 86 SP, came back to take a NW3L local allowance next time out with an 89 SP, so there is some potential at the top of end of that field.\u00a0 Bomb Cyclone comes into this race off of a 2 month layoff, and he hopes to progress in turf routes as a 3yo here.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Charm Spirit, a G1 winning turf miler, stands for $17,500 in real life with 1 Graded Stakes winner, but seems to be far more popular in the sim.\u00a0 He is the #31 ranked 2018 sire currently, with 103 runners and 55 winners from the crop (winning at an 18% rate).\u00a0 Those 55 winners include 3 stakes winners, of which 2 are graded stakes winners.\u00a0 Remember The Name<\/b>, the best of his 3yo crop and 2nd<\/sup> best foal to date, is a G1 winner at 8f-T, running 2nd in the Breeders\u2019 Bowl Juvenile Turf before taking the win in The Futurity<\/span>-G1.\u00a0 His sim progeny generally loves turf, with 75% of earnings coming on the grass, which his progeny has no real preferred distance (a 53\/47 split between earnings in sprints and routes).\u00a0 Battle Rages On, a 16yo mare, has 8 foals in total, of which Bomb Cyclone is the 7th<\/sup>.\u00a0 A stakes-placed horse at 8f-T, Battle Rages On was best at the 8-9f distances, earning 7 of her 8 career wins in 39 career starts in route races.\u00a0 Four of her 6 other foals to race thus far have picked up allowance wins, with her first, Galeos<\/b> (Galileo (IRE)<\/i>), finishing 4th<\/sup> in a 12f-T stakes.\u00a0 Preferred distances vary wildly with her progeny, running the gamut from 5f to 16f, though most prefer the turf.\u00a0 A Diesis mare has been sent to Charm Spirit one other time in the past 4 years, and that horse is also part of the 3yo crop, but she has not yet done more than breaking her maiden in a sprint.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>:\u00a0 Bomb Cyclone had been improving in every race until his last step backwards, where he struggled out of the gate and never had a chance in the race.\u00a0 But he gets a nice break here and doesn\u2019t need to travel as he heads back onto the track.\u00a0 Expect him to be a little more involved early than he was in his last race, though he\u2019ll still probably sit a few lengths off the pacesetters.\u00a0 From there, it\u2019s just a question of whether he can make a strong transition to the 3yo season.\u00a0 I\u2019d keep an eye on him in this one to see if the last race was a fluke or a trend.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

#6 \u2013 Milanesa<\/b> (Snitzel x Mellon Collie [Kingmambo x Northern Dancer]) \u2013 Owned by curiostud<\/i> \u2013 7\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 4:1-0-0; $35,147<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Milanesa broke his maiden in his 2nd<\/sup> career start, and first at 8f-T, back in September 2018.\u00a0 In that MSW, he sat midpack early, 2-1\/2 lengths off the leader, before getting the first jump and showing a strong kick.\u00a0 He drew off to win by 2 lengths, earning a career-best 78 SP.\u00a0 Unfortunately, things stalled a bit from there.\u00a0 None of Milanesa\u2019s competition in the 9 horse maiden field has gone on to break their maiden, and Milanesa has struggled in the NW2L ranks since.\u00a0 In his last race, cutting back from 8f to 7.5f, he fell out of the race early, staying in the back the entire way and finishing 10th<\/sup> of 12.\u00a0 He did move up a bit in the stretch, passing a couple of tiring horses, but he comes into this race off of stagnating speed figures in hopes of taking the next step as a 3yo.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Snitzel was the #1 ranked Australian sire in 2018, his second year in a row as leading Australian sire, with 4 real life G1 winners in 2018.\u00a0 His sim abilities have not yet fully caught up to his real world abilities, but his 2018 crop is his best to date, currently ranked #35.\u00a0 The crop includes 122 runners and 66 winners, who are winning at a 20.4% rate (well above Snitzel\u2019s 15% overall win rate, though that rate is skewed by a clear boost that Snitzel received back in 2014).\u00a0 The 3yo class includes 4 stakes winners and 1 G3 winner (in a turf sprint), and also includes a multiple G1-placed gelding (in turf sprints) and a multiple-4th<\/sup> place G1 filly (in turf routes).\u00a0 Milanesa is the 6th<\/sup> foal of Mellon Collie, an 11yo winner of 3 from 24 races.\u00a0 Mellon Collie showed a preference for turf routes in her career, winning an eye-catching NW2L in her first route attempt at 9f-T.\u00a0 She spent most of her career in the 9f-10f turf races.\u00a0 Her most successful daughter, Aye She Is Hot<\/b> (Teofilo<\/i>), is a multiple stakes-placed mare at 8.5f-9f-T.\u00a0 2 other siblings are also allowance winners, both at 9f-T or longer races.\u00a0 The Snitzel x Kingmambo cross is particularly popular, with 18 horses being bred over the past 4 years.\u00a0 Unfortunately, none of the 18 has achieved stakes success, and to the extent that they have found success, it has been primarily in turf sprints.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: The 7\/1 odds on Milanesa indicate that the oddsmakers like this colt\u2019s chances here, but I\u2019m not sure I\u2019m on the same page.\u00a0 Milanesa has strong bloodlines, but he looks like he\u2019s hit a bit of a wall at the allowance level.\u00a0 I expect him to break towards the back of the pack here, and I\u2019m not sure if he has the gear necessary to take down this race.\u00a0 The hope is that he\u2019ll make the jump as a 3yo, but I\u2019ll wait a race to see if that jump comes before backing him.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n

#7 – Tete Gaahlskagg<\/b> (Pivotal x Victorious Fowl [Dawn Approach (IRE) x Rock Hard Ten]) – Owned by sabbath4<\/i> \u2013 12\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 2:1-0-0; $28,170<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Sabbath4 sponsored this race as a way to stretch out his colt beyond 6f-T, where he ran both of his previous races.\u00a0 Tete Gaahlskagg broke his maiden at first asking, earning a 79 SP and stalking the pace before grabbing the photo by 1\/4 length.\u00a0 2nd place in the maiden race came back next time out on dirt to break his own maiden, as did the 6th place horse.\u00a0 Unfortunately, Tete Gaahlskagg regressed a bit in his 2nd start, finishing 4th of 6, 3-1\/2 lengths behind the pace-setting winner, after again trying to stalk the pace and coming up empty in the stretch.\u00a0 He earned a disappointing 72 SP for the effort.\u00a0 He’ll make his first route effort here.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Pivotal was the #61 ranked sire in the US\/EU in 2018, with 2 G1 winners and an average winning distance of 9f.\u00a0 His 3yo sim crop includes 109 runners to date, with 55 winners who are winning at a 17.6% rate, on par with Pivotal’s overall win rate in the sim.\u00a0 Those 55 winners include 2 stakes winners (one of whom is G3-placed), both of which have been successful in super-sprints (5-5.5f) on the turf.\u00a0 This is no surprise for Pivotal progeny, as 70% of earnings have come on the turf.\u00a0 Historically, Pivotal progeny prefer routes (65% earnings in routes), but the last 2 crops seem to show a shift towards the shorter distances (62% earnings in sprints for 2017, 71% for 2018).\u00a0 Likewise, the speed figures recently have been slightly better in sprints than routes when compared to the averages.\u00a0 Tete Gaahlkagg is the first child of 6yo stakes-winning mare Victorious Fowl, who was retired after 2 off-the-board efforts in turf sprint stakes to end her career.\u00a0 She was 5 for 20 in her career on the turf, including a stakes win at 7f-T.\u00a0 She showed some distance limitations, but seemed to be able to get up to 8f-T without too much of a problem, earning her second best career SP of 107 in an 8f turf stakes where she ran 4th of 14 (at 31\/1 odds).<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Tete Gaahlskagg sat just off the pace in 2 sprints and pushed pretty hard to do it, so it\u2019s likely to see him sit close to, if not on, the pace in this race.\u00a0 But there are some definite concerns about the distance.\u00a0 His mother was primarily a sprinter, and his sire, while a longer distance sire in real life and earlier in the sim, seems to be throwing sprinters recently.\u00a0 The poor 2nd<\/sup> start is also not a good sign for this one.\u00a0 Hopefully he can bounce back in his first race of 2019, but I\u2019d look elsewhere here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n

#8 – Call Boy<\/b> (Harzand (IRE) x Stage Fright [In The Wings x Lion Cavern] \u2013 Owned by delwoodleah7<\/i> \u2013 13\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 8:1-0-0; $31,965<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Call Boy is the veteran of the field, having already raced 8 times in his career, including 1 race already in 2019, back on January 9.\u00a0 Thus far, those 8 races have resulted in only 1 on-the-board finish, when he broke his maiden in a Local MSW at 8f-T back in August 2018 in his 5th<\/sup> career race.\u00a0 That race ended up on the good turf after some rain, and Call Boy sat midpack early, about 3-1\/4 lengths back, before gaining on some tiring horses and striking the front.\u00a0 He would pull away to win by 1-1\/4, earning a 75 SP in his first route attempt.\u00a0 He has struggled in the leap to the NW2L ranks and out of local races, with a 4th<\/sup>, 5th<\/sup>, and 7th<\/sup> place finish in 3 tries.\u00a0 Call Boy saw a decent SP bump in his first 2 tries following the maiden score, earning an 81 and an 83 SP in an 8.5f-T and 8f-T allowance, respectively, and he caught some solid fields (the top 2 from his first NW2L attempt are G3-placed and stakes-placed).\u00a0 But his first race of 2019 showed a bit of a regression, as he was beaten 12-1\/2 and put up a dull 76 SP.\u00a0 He comes back 2.5 weeks later here, hoping that the poor showing last time out was a fluke.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: The 2016 Epsom Derby winner, Harzand currently stands for $10,000 and entered stud in 2017, which means does not have any real life progeny on the track yet (his weanlings sold for an average of $25,426 in 2018).\u00a0\u00a0 In the sim, Harzand\u2019s 3yo crop includes 89 runners to date, including 33 winners who win at a 13% rate (his 4yo crop is slightly higher, at 16.5%).\u00a0 His progeny strongly prefer turf, with 89% of earnings coming from the grass.\u00a0 The 3yo crop includes 1 stakes winner, Bonezander<\/b>, who was 13th<\/sup> in the Breeders Bowl Filly Juvy Turf.\u00a0 The dam, Stage Fright, is a 20yo mare that has 9 children, of which Call Boy is the 8th<\/sup> (her last foal has not yet raced).\u00a0 Only 3 of her 7 prior children have an allowance win on their record, and all of those allowance wins were in sprints (2 on turf, 1 on dirt).\u00a0 Stage Fright herself was 1 of 16 in her career, with her best races coming in sprints (and her only win coming in a dirt sprint).<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Call Boy is not very quick out of the gate, so will rely on either a slow pace, that he can sit close to, or some closing speed in order to get to the front.\u00a0 His ideal style would be to sit a few lengths off of the pace early and pick off some tiring horses, but his first race as a 3yo is a bit of a red flag here.\u00a0 He\u2019s got some potential, but this may not be his best spot.\u00a0 If he had caught an off-track here, he might have a better chance, but unfortunately the rain clouds held off.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n

#9 \u2013 Mean No Harm<\/b> (Into Mischief x Dark Interval [Unbridled\u2019s Song x Seattle Slew]) \u2013 Owned by plano8<\/i> \u2013 5\/1 (f-t)<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 3:1-2-0; $54,720<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Mean No Harm has done everything that you could ask for in his first 3 races.\u00a0 In his first race, at 5.5f-T, he ran 2nd<\/sup> to a horse that would come back to take a NW2L Allowance with a 93 SP, before faltering at the G2 level.\u00a0 Mean No Harm stretched out to 7f-T for his second race in November 2018 and sat back early, but showing another gear in the stretch to pass horses and grab the lead, pulling away to win by 1-3\/4\u00a0 and earning an 83 SP in a race where the horses setting the pace stayed in the top 6.\u00a0 The 3rd<\/sup> place finisher in that race would come back to take a 5.5f-T MSW next time out with a 79 SP.\u00a0 Mean No Harm comes into this one off of a 2nd<\/sup> place finish in an 8f-T NW2L allowance, where he again sat midpack early and caught all but one horse, finishing 2nd<\/sup> by 2 lengths (3 clear of 3rd<\/sup>) and earning a career best 87 SP.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: A G1 winner at 8.5f, Into Mischief has really come on in the past few years in the real world, ranking as the #4 US sire in 2018.\u00a0 In the sim, he comes in as the #5 ranked sire in 2018, with 140 runners and 77 winners to date.\u00a0 Those 77 winners have done so at a 19% clip, which is in line with his progeny winning percentage over the past 5 years.\u00a0 It\u2019s a bit of a surprise to see Into Mischief sire a horse in this race, as his progeny typically prefers dirt sprints, with 75% of earnings on the dirt and 62% in sprints.\u00a0 Into Mischief\u2019s 3yo crop includes 2 G1 winners, one of whom, Into Being Nice<\/b>, is the 2018 Breeders\u2019 Bowl Juvenile<\/span> winner and may have a new title after next week.\u00a0 He was also represented in the Breeders\u2019 Bowl Juvenile by Loyal Chief<\/b>, who ran 11th<\/sup> there.\u00a0 Only 3 of his top 10 3yos have shown any real affinity for turf, with one being multiple stakes-placed in turf sprints.\u00a0 Mean No Harm is the 4th<\/sup> foal from Dark Interval, a G1-winning 9yo mare who won 11 races in her 28 race career.\u00a0 That G1 win was in the Breeders Bowl Game<\/span>-G1 at 8f on the turf, on New Yorker day back in June of 2014.\u00a0 Dark Interval was a fairly ambivalent horse, winning 5 of 11 on dirt, 6 of 17 on turf, 7 of 11 in sprints, and 4 of 17 (including 2 of her 4 stakes wins, and her G1 win).\u00a0 That ability on both surfaces seems to have been passed down to her most successful foal, 5yo Might Is Right<\/b> (More Than Ready<\/i>), who is G1-placed at 7f on dirt and put up a solid effort in his first turf try 2 weeks ago.\u00a0 The progeny do tend to prefer sprints, which fits into the Into Mischief mold.\u00a0 Likewise, the Into Mischief x Unbridled\u2019s Song cross seems to prefer dirt sprints above all else, with 1 6-time stakes winner in the 5yo crop, all in dirt stakes.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Mean No Harm is yet another horse that is going to let those at the front go while he settles in towards the back.\u00a0 Although the breeding says that he should prefer sprints, he held his own last time out in his first route effort.\u00a0 If he can run back to that one, he\u2019s got a good shot here.\u00a0 And although I think he\u2019s got a solid chance in this race, I can\u2019t help but wonder what would happen if he tried dirt, specifically in the 7-7.5f race.\u00a0 I think he has even more potential there, and his past success in turf races may be masking his true maximum abilities on a different surface.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#10 – Nustfahs<\/b> (Sea The Stars x Shaftsun [Mineshaft x Monsun]) \u2013 Owned by gtrain<\/i> \u2013 24\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 5:1-1-0; $38,885<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: A very well-bred foal, Nustfahs had high hopes in his debut, a 6f-T MSW in Ireland, but he struggled to keep pace with a strong field and finished 8th<\/sup>, beaten 5-3\/4 lengths.\u00a0 The winner of that MSW, Pirates Hurricane<\/b>, who go on to take down The M.L. Trophy<\/span>-G3 at 6f-T 4 races later.\u00a0 Nustfahs came back in his second race in a 5.5f local dirt MSW, and he travelled in a huge pack at the start before getting his nose in front and breaking his maiden by \u00bc lengths.\u00a0 However, he only earned a 64 SP in the process.\u00a0 He would come back at 5.5f on the dirt and finish 2nd<\/sup> of 4 in a NW1x, but his most recent 2 races, one at 6f on the dirt and one at 7f on the turf, saw him run 10th<\/sup> and 11th<\/sup>, not breaking a 70 SP.\u00a0 He will try routing for the first time here.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Sea The Stars, the 2009 European Horse of the Year, was the #23 ranked sire in the EU + NA in 2018. In the sim, his 2018 crop is currently ranked #11, with 171 runners to date and 97 winners, winning at a 20% rate.\u00a0 His progeny prefers turf routes (75% earnings on turf, 69% routes).\u00a0 The 3yo crop, in particular, includes 6 stakes winners to date, all but one of whom has done so on turf.\u00a0 However, he has no graded stakes winners to date.\u00a0 Nustfahs, which is Shaftsun backwards, is the first foal from the 10yo mare.\u00a0 Shaftsun was a winner of 7 from 34 races, including stakes wins at 7.5f and 8.5f on the turf.\u00a0 She bounced back and forth between sprints and routes in her career, but seemed to prefer the 7f-8.5f range generally.\u00a0 Of note, she was 4:1-2-1 in her career on a good or yielding turf course.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: The breeding screams \u201csuccess\u201d, but unfortunately, nothing this colt has shown on the track so far gives hope in this race and the oddsmakers noticed, making him the biggest longshot in the field.\u00a0 He struggled to keep up with horses in his last race, a 7f NW2L on the turf, where he was disinterested and kept dropping back, finishing 11th<\/sup> of 12 and beaten 13-1\/2 lengths at 15\/1.\u00a0 If he couldn\u2019t keep up there, unfortunately there\u2019s no reason to think he can do so here.\u00a0 His inability to break a 70 SP through 5 career races is another concern in this race.\u00a0 There\u2019s always a chance that he can pop as a 3yo, but I would look elsewhere in this race.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n

#11 \u2013 Earthworm Jim<\/b> (Not This Time x Earn Earn Earn [War Front x Unbridled\u2019s Song]) \u2013 Owned by nepenthe28<\/i> \u2013 8\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 5:1-1-2; $41,895<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: It took 5 tries, but Earthworm Jim finally came through in his most recent race, an 8f-T MSW at the end of December 2018.\u00a0 After running 2nd<\/sup> in his debut to a horse that would come back to run 3rd<\/sup> in a 6.5f-T stakes next time out, Earthworm Jim tried 8f-T for the first time but couldn\u2019t quite sustain his run through the entire race.\u00a0 After a turn back to sprints and then a polytrack try, he finally found his way back to the 8f-T distance and showed that a little seasoning can go a long way.\u00a0 In that race, he stalked the pace, sitting 3 lengths off the pacesetter, and got first run in the stretch, passing the two horses in front of him and pulling away to win by 2 lengths, earning a career best 87 SP.\u00a0 He comes into this one off of that maiden score.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Not This Time, a son of Giant\u2019s Causeway, entered stud in 2017 so he has no real life runners, but his weanlings averaged $76,833 at auction in 2018.\u00a0 His 3yo sim crop includes 74 runners to date, of which 26 have won with wins coming at an 11% rate.\u00a0 One of those 26, Diora Danger<\/b>, has managed to pull down a stakes victory, in a 6.5f turf sprint stakes.\u00a0 Although there is only limited sim information on Not This Time, his progeny thus far seem to be the opposite of what we see in this race; they prefer dirt sprints (66% earnings on turf, 78% in sprints).\u00a0 However, when it comes to speed figures, the route speeds have popped a little more than the sprint speed figures have.\u00a0 Earthworm Jim is the 2nd<\/sup> of 3 foals from 7yo mare Earn Earn Earn.\u00a0 Earn Earn Earn was a winner of 6 from 38 races in her career, and she spent all but her first and her last 2 races at the allowance level.\u00a0 She found most of her success in dirt mile races, preferring 7.5f-8f dirt races.\u00a0 She only tried turf once, but it was one of the worst races of her career.\u00a0 Earthworm Jim\u2019s only sibling to race thus far, Serpens<\/b> (Pyro<\/i>), is a maiden winner from 13 races, but seems to be a solid horse on both turf and dirt.\u00a0 His last 3 races have come in turf sprints, with a 2nd<\/sup>, 3rd<\/sup>, and 4th<\/sup> at the allowance level.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: With minimal pace in this race, Earthworm Jim is the type who can sit on or near the lead.\u00a0 His last race was a very solid run and bodes well for the future, but the real question is whether that race was legit or a fluke.\u00a0 None of his competitors from that maiden win have gone back to the track yet, so we don\u2019t know exactly how strong that field was.\u00a0 Meanwhile, his pedigree is another one that suggests dirt (and possibly even dirt sprints), a surface that he has yet to try.\u00a0 I\u2019d be curious to see how he did on the dirt.\u00a0 Plus, with a name like Earthworm Jim, spending time on the dirt makes too much sense.\u00a0 With that said, I think there\u2019s reason for optimism in this race.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#12 \u2013 Baby Be Fast<\/b> (Lope De Vega x Royal Baby [Frankel (GB) x Seattle Slew]) \u2013 Owned by redhill11<\/i> \u2013 5\/1 (f-t)<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 2:1-1-0; $38,250<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Baby Be Fast debuted in November of 2018 in a 6f-T MSW, and in that race he dueled for the lead early and throughout the entire race, but his competitor, who had a few races under his belt, was able to win the battle and Baby Be Fast had to settle for 2nd<\/sup>, earning a 78 SP. 3rd<\/sup> in that race would go on to break his maiden next time out at 8f-T with a 90 SP.\u00a0 Baby Be Fast took what he learned in his debut and applied it in his most recent race in December 2018, an 8f-T MSW.\u00a0 In that race, he decided not to get into a pace duel and sat 2 lengths off of the leader in 4th<\/sup>.\u00a0 But Baby Be Fast was much the best in that race, and took over the lead at the top of the stretch, pulling away to win by 2 lengths and earning a career best 82 SP.\u00a0 He makes the jump to the NW2L level here looking to repeat his last performance.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Lope De Vega was the #33 ranked sire in EU + NA in 2018, with 6 graded stakes winners (including 1 G1 winner).\u00a0 In the sim, his crop is not as highly rated, as his 2018 crop clocks in at #172 overall thus far.\u00a0 That 3yo crop includes 77 runners and 32 winners who succeed at a 14% rate (slightly below his 15.5% average).\u00a0 Among the 32 winners are 3 stakes winners, with all 3 coming in turf sprints.\u00a0 Lope De Vega\u2019s progeny typically prefer turf, with 71% of earnings on turf, while the sprint\/route split is pretty even (though his progeny\u2019s speed figures, particularly in this 3yo crop, are more impressive in sprints that routes).\u00a0 Royal Baby, the 8yo dam of Baby Be Fast, was a very successful runner herself, a winner of 9 from 34 career races.\u00a0 Those 9 wins included a stakes win at 7.5f-T and a G3 win at 8f-T.\u00a0 Her best performances were in 8-9f turf races, though she showed some ability at 7.5f as well.\u00a0 Baby Be Fast is the 2ndfoal from the G3 mare.\u00a0 His older sister, Bend The Knee<\/b> (Shamardal<\/i>), took after her mother and is also a G3 winner.\u00a0 That G3 win was in The Vanguard<\/span>, a 9f turf stakes for 3yo fillies.\u00a0 That 9f distance has been her best thus far through her 13 race career.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Baby Be Fast isn\u2019t a need-the-lead type of horse, and in future races I can see him stalking the pace or even sitting midpack.\u00a0 But there seems to be almost no pace in this race, and he showed in his debut that he\u2019s got early speed.\u00a0 So I see him going for the lead here.\u00a0 The real question is whether he\u2019ll be able to sustain that speed for the full 8 furlongs and hold off some of the late charges.\u00a0 His best speed figure isn\u2019t quite as high as some of the others in this field, but he\u2019s shown nice progression in 2 races and has a solid pedigree foundation to fall back on.\u00a0 I like his chances here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

So that\u2019s the field of 12 in this NW2L allowance.\u00a0 My predictions are (1) Baby Be Fast<\/b>, (2) Monk Brew<\/b>, (3) Earthworm Jim<\/b>, with Sunset Ave<\/b> as my longshot pick.\u00a0 <\/b>Last week I said there would be tons of speed, and yet the pace ended up slow.\u00a0 This week, I think that there\u2019s so little pace that if I personally ran in this one, I might be the pacesetter.\u00a0 So I\u2019m going with the 2 horses in this race that are solid and have shown some speed in the past.\u00a0 Of course, that probably means that 6 horses will get caught up in a speed duel and they\u2019ll burn through an opening quarter in 20.80 seconds.\u00a0 But there\u2019s only one way to find out, and that\u2019s to watch the race! (Or check back next week).\u00a0 Until then\u2026<\/p>\n

Other races to watch this weekend:<\/p>\n

1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 New York \u2013 Alw NW3L @ 8f<\/a> (Friday)<\/p>\n

2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ireland \u2013 Alw NW4L @ 8f-T<\/a><\/p>\n

3)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Vermont \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 6.5f<\/a><\/p>\n

4)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 New Mexico \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 8f (Fillies)<\/a><\/p>\n

5)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Paris \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 6.5f-T<\/a><\/p>\n

6)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Germany \u2013 Alw NW3L @ 9f-T (Fillies)<\/a><\/p>\n

7)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ireland \u2013 Alw NW3L @ 8f-T (Fillies)<\/a><\/p>\n

8)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Texas \u2013 Alw NW1x @ 6f (Fillies)<\/a><\/p>\n

9)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Deauville \u2013 LOCAL Alw NW4L @ 9f-T<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

First, a quick recap of last week\u2019s race.\u00a0 I predicted a hot pace with at least 5 different horses battling<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":384,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[230,229,80],"class_list":["post-47844","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews","tag-3yo","tag-future-stars-series","tag-paris"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47844","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/384"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=47844"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47844\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47848,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47844\/revisions\/47848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=47844"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=47844"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=47844"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}