{"id":47810,"date":"2019-01-19T08:08:47","date_gmt":"2019-01-19T13:08:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=47810"},"modified":"2019-01-19T08:08:47","modified_gmt":"2019-01-19T13:08:47","slug":"future-stars-series-11-fillies-head-to-indiana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=47810","title":{"rendered":"Future Stars Series \u2013 11 Fillies Head To Indiana"},"content":{"rendered":"

First, a quick recap of last week\u2019s race.\u00a0 Forty Niner Cause<\/b> looks like the real deal, as he blitzed to the lead in the 9f NW2L Allowance and never looked back.\u00a0 He opened up as many as 6 lengths on the field going into the stretch, before jockey W. Kelly eased up, allowing Forty Niner Cause to cruise to a 1-3\/4 length victory.\u00a0 Subjecttothefates<\/b>, answering the call when stretching out, showed a strong closing kick, moving from 10th (12-1\/2 lengths back) early to finish 2nd<\/sup>.\u00a0 Forrester\u2019s Dancer<\/b> sat midpack early and gained some in the stretch, narrowly getting edged out by Subjecttothefates and finishing 3rd<\/sup>, 2 lengths back.\u00a0 It was another 9-1\/4 back to 4th<\/sup>.\u00a0 The top 3 look like legitimate watch horses for the future, and in particular the winner, as Forty Niner Cause\u2019s 101.475 SP was the 2nd<\/sup> fastest 3yo allowance winning SP of the weekend (trailing only Bode Girl<\/b>, the runner-up in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly and the winner of the Texas NW3L Allowance that was #3 on last week\u2019s \u201cOther Races To Watch\u201d list).\u00a0 Subjecttothefates and Forrester\u2019s Dancer both earned 99 SPs.<\/p>\n

Before we get to this week\u2019s race, a couple of administrative notes.\u00a0 First, the races being spotlighted here may not be the most <\/i>interesting 3yo Allowance races of the week.\u00a0 I am not able to get the full list of entries for the race until the day before the race (for example, if the race is on Saturday, I won\u2019t have access to the full final entry list until Friday morning).\u00a0 This simply isn\u2019t enough time to write up a proper preview of the level I\u2019m comfortable with.\u00a0 So instead, I\u2019m basing my decision on which race to cover on entries for a race by horses entered through either Monday or Tuesday on a given week.\u00a0 I\u2019ll still cover all of the actual entrants in the preview, but it\u2019s possible that there may have been other races that become more \u201cinteresting\u201d as new horses get entered throughout the week.\u00a0 However, I\u2019ll still list the other most interesting races at the bottom of the article, so even if I\u2019m not previewing the most <\/i>interesting, you\u2019ll still know which ones they are.\u00a0 Second, I\u2019m going to limit the races to Allowance races being run on the weekend (Saturday or Sunday).\u00a0 Every once in a while I may throw in a race from a different day to the list of other races to watch, but the preview itself will always be for a weekend race.<\/p>\n

Ok, that\u2019s enough administrative stuff.\u00a0 This week, we travel to Indiana to check out the 3yo filly division, where 11 fillies line up for a NW1x Allowance at 8.25 furlongs on the dirt.\u00a0 The field of 11 entering the starting gate is:<\/p>\n

#1 \u2013 Ocean Park Wind<\/b> (Ocean Park (NZ) x Ransom\u2019s Ecstacy [Red Ransom x Pulpit]) \u2013 Owned by chibound<\/i> \u2013 9\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 5:1-2-0; $56,786<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: It took 5 tries, but Ocean Park Wind comes into this race off of a maiden breaking score back in December 2018.\u00a0 The maiden win, her first on the dirt after 4 races on the turf to start her career, saw her take down a 7f MSW by \u00bd lengths, earning a career best 86 SP.\u00a0 In that race, she shot out of the gate and never looked back, setting the pace and holding on to win.\u00a0 Ocean Park Wind debuted at 6f on turf, but was quickly stretched out to 8f and showed an affinity for the distance.\u00a0 She\u2019ll try to repeat those efforts on the dirt here in a pace-setting style.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Ocean Park, the 2012 Cox Plate winner and 2012-2013 NZ Horse of the Year, currently stands in New Zealand for $30,000, with 1 stakes winner from his first 2 crops.\u00a0 He is not super popular in the sim, as his 2018 crop has only 24 runners to date.\u00a0 Of those 24, 17 are winners, including 1 stakes winner.\u00a0 That stakes win came in a 5.5f turf sprint, which is what Ocean Park\u2019s sim progeny tend to prefer (79% earnings on turf, 65% in sprints).\u00a0 His 3yo crop is winning at a 20% rate, significantly better than his overall 15% win percentage.\u00a0 Overall in the sim, he has 1 career graded stakes winner, Pacific Playground<\/b>, who was a G2 winner at 7f on the turf.\u00a0 On the dam side, Ocean Park Wind is the 5th<\/sup> foal of 16yo Ransom\u2019s Ecstacy.\u00a0 Ransom\u2019s Ecstacy was a stakes winner at 8f on dirt and winner of 5 races from 36 tries.\u00a0 Only one of her children is an allowance winner (a career best effort at 6.5f on the turf in a 5 horse field), and her four previous children have all preferred turf, relying on her pedigree more than her race record.\u00a0 Ocean Park has been bred to a Red Ransom mare 5 other times in the past 4 years, and that list includes 2 stakes winners, Seaside Playground<\/b> and Waikato Ransom<\/b> (both in turf sprints).<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Ocean Park Wind is very likely going to contest the lead, and she has some sprint speed to do it.\u00a0 Her last race was promising and a career best, but the 2nd<\/sup> and 3rd<\/sup> place horses, who were sitting close to the pace, were getting closer as the wire approached, so this filly with a sprinter pedigree might not quite have the stamina to get this distance.\u00a0 But her mom did show off some skills at 8f, and the last race was a very promising first dirt effort, so if she improves in her second dirt try, she might have a shot here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

#2 – Silly Magic <\/b>(Zulu Magic x Silly Claim Games [It\u2019s No Joke x Montjeu]) \u2013 Owned by bad<\/i> \u2013 11\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>:\u00a0 6:1-2-3; $60,985<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Silly Magic broke her maiden in her third race on the dirt, but comes into this one off of 2 turf runs.\u00a0 The two turf races, both at the NW2L level at 8f, were consistent with her prior to races at 8f on the dirt, as she earned 80-82 SPs for each of the 4 races, with 1 win (in her maiden score) and 3 3rd<\/sup> place finishes.\u00a0 She has either set or sat just off the pace in each of her races to date.\u00a0 The 2nd<\/sup> place horse in her maiden score popped a 94 SP on a good dirt track at the end of 2018 to break her maiden.\u00a0 Silly Magic is coming off a career high 82 SP in her last race, on the good turf track back in December 2018.\u00a0 Here, she will try to get a boost from shifting back to dirt.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Zulu Magic, a son of Johannesburg, previously stood in Michigan for a $1,000 stud fee before dying in 2017 at the age of 12.\u00a0 But he was unknown enough in real life that he hasn\u2019t left stud duty in the sim just yet.\u00a0 He was the #6 ranked sire in Michigan in real life in 2018, with 4 winners from 7 runners.\u00a0 In the sim, his 2018 crop includes 2 winners from 6 runners (to date), and this 3yo crop is his best to date.\u00a0 That is boosted by Silly Magic, who, as a maiden winner, is already Zulu Magic\u2019s 4th<\/sup> best horse of all time in the sim.\u00a0 He has only sired 4 allowance winners out of 24 total runners, and much like the sire himself, most of his sim progeny prefer dirt sprints. \u00a0Silly Claim Games, the 14yo mare, is a G3-winning turf sprinter, winning stakes races in the 6.5-7.5f range.\u00a0 Silly Magic is her third child, but both prior children prefer turf miles (neither has won above the claimer\/HOT allowance level).\u00a0 This is actually the second<\/i> Zulu Magic x It\u2019s No Joke cross in the sim; the first, Michigan Jungle<\/b>, is one of the 4 allowance winners, at 9f on dirt.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Silly Magic is going to make a run for the lead here, but will probably have to sit just off of what will likely be a hot pace.\u00a0 That pace certainly won\u2019t help her, as she hasn\u2019t been able to withstand the rush of others in any of her three previous allowance attempts.\u00a0 She\u2019s probably a cut below the best here, but as the first race of her 3yo year and going turf to dirt, there\u2019s certainly a chance she could pop a solid performance here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n

#3 – Minesaver<\/b> (Super Saver x Legendary Gold [Mineshaft x Quiet American]) \u2013 Owned by trotter1<\/i> \u2013 6\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 6:1-2-0; $70,981<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Minesaver broke her maiden in her third attempt, back in August 2018, in her first route effort, stalking the pace and then drawing off to win by 1-1\/2.\u00a0 She has run 3 times at the allowance level, including a 2nd<\/sup> place finish in the ESR My Day Will Come Hopeful (a fitting name for a horse in this series) 2 races back.\u00a0 That 2nd<\/sup> place finish, where she set the pace and held on for 2nd<\/sup>, earned her a career best 90 SP.\u00a0 The winner from that one followed up the race with a closing 6th<\/sup> place run (91 SP).\u00a0 Minesaver comes into this one off of a 4th<\/sup> place finish in an 8f allowance, where she picked up an 85 SP after setting the pace and getting edged out of a top 3 finish.\u00a0 This will be her longest race, after 4 straight 8f tries.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Super Saver, the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner, finished 2018 as the #67 ranked sire in the US in real life.\u00a0 His 2018 sim crop is not ranked as highly, with his 89 runners combining for only 37 winners who have won at a 14% rate.\u00a0 This is slightly off the 17% rate that his older horses maintain.\u00a0 Super Saver\u2019s sim horses strongly prefer the dirt (75% earnings on dirt), but while the earnings are higher in routes, the fastest of the horses tend to be sprinters.\u00a0 He only has 1 stakes winner from the 3yo class, who succeeded at 8.5f on the turf.\u00a0 Legendary Gold, Minesaver\u2019s 13yo dam, was a stakes placed mare at 8f on the dirt, and excelled at the 7-8.5f distance, picking up 11 wins in 36 races.\u00a0 Minesaver is her 4th<\/sup> child, and her sim-\u00be brother, Securitas Depot<\/b> (Bank Heist<\/i>), is a G3-winning dirt sprinter.\u00a0 Super Saver has paired with a Mineshaft mare one other time in the past 4 years, and that other pairing resulted in a long-distance dirt runner who has won 9 allowances in 31 races, with a max SP of 115.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Minesaver should be at or near the lead, and should put a solid run together.\u00a0 The real question is whether there are other horses that can keep up with her.\u00a0 The added 0.25 furlongs might be pushing her limits, but she\u2019s still got a chance here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

#4 \u2013 Henty Iron<\/b> (Nyquist x Outback Iron [Tapit x Kingmambo]) \u2013 Owned by tulloch<\/i> \u2013 9\/2(f)<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 3:1-0-2; $39,610<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Henty Iron looked strong in her debut at 6f back in August 2018, breaking her maiden at first asking after sitting off the pace and pulling ahead to win by 1 length.\u00a0 The 2nd<\/sup> place horse in that race went on to put up a 90 SP in her last race at 8f.\u00a0 Henty Iron\u2019s was then stretched out to 8f, where she ran 3rd<\/sup> in back-to-back NW2L allowances.\u00a0 In each of those races, she stalked the pace, sitting a few lengths back early, but never really showed the turn of foot to find the winner\u2019s circle, as she let other horses pass her in both efforts.\u00a0 But her most recent race was promising; after sitting 7th<\/sup> early, she managed to catch the front-runners and pass them, only to get passed by the 2 horses who were sitting behind her early.\u00a0 That race earned her a career best 86 SP, and she hopes to improve off of that one here.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Nyquist, the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner, currently stands for $40,000 and although his real life progeny have not yet hit the track, his weanlings sold at auction in 2018 for an average of $279K.\u00a0 In the sim, Nyquist has been a pretty strong sire in his first 2 classes, as his 2018 crop currently ranks 45th<\/sup>, with 53 winners out of 113 runners.\u00a0 Those 3yos have won 17.4% of their races thus far, and that crop includes 6 stakes winners, one of whom, Nadera<\/b>, is a G1 winner who was the 4th<\/sup> choice in the 2018 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly (she finished 6th<\/sup>).\u00a0 His progeny tend to prefer the dirt (84% earnings on dirt), and he has seen success in both sprints and routes (though the highest speed figures tend to be in sprints).\u00a0 Outback Iron, Henty Iron\u2019s 8yo dam, was a 5-time stakes winner at the 10-11f dirt range, so she brings some needed stamina to the pedigree.\u00a0 Henty Iron is her 3rd<\/sup> progeny (all fillies thus far).\u00a0 Her first two fillies are by Uncle Mo, so it\u2019s no surprise she went to Nyquist here.\u00a0 The first foal, Finke Iron<\/b>, is a stakes winner herself, taking down a 12f dirt stakes.\u00a0 Tapit mares, meanwhile, have been bred to Nyquist 13 times already, with 1 stakes winner and 1 stakes placed horse (each at 8.5f) among them.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Henty Iron has seen her speed improve in each of her three races, although her 2 allowance tries saw her stagnate late.\u00a0 But her most recent run was a little better looking than it may first appear, as she was only outrun by 2 deeper closers against a hot pace.\u00a0 She seems likely to get another hot pace to run into here, and she\u2019ll likely sit mid-pack early.\u00a0 The real question is whether she can make the jump at 3 to really progress off of that last race.\u00a0 If she can, she\u2019ll be dangerous here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#5 \u2013 Babelsburg<\/b> (Unified x Al Mufti x Adjudicating) \u2013 Owned by plano29<\/i> \u2013 15\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 1:1-0-0; $3,000<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: The least experienced filly in the field, Babelsburg only has 1 race under her belt, and it was a HOT MSW.\u00a0 In that race, back in December 2018, planoaxius <\/i>sent out 11 of his fillies to see what he had.\u00a0 Babelsburg looked slow out of the gate, but she navigated the 8f distance expertly for a first-time runner and closed from 6 lengths back to win by 1.\u00a0 Importantly, the 3 pacesetters held on for 3rd<\/sup>, 4th<\/sup>, and 5th<\/sup>, well ahead of the horses behind them, indicating that either (a) it wasn\u2019t an easy pace to close into, or (b) the top 5 horses from that race were a real cut above the rest.\u00a0 None of those 5 has been back on the track since that hot race, so we\u2019re a little blind into the competition there.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Unified, a winner of graded stakes from 7f-9f, was a freshman sire in 2018, so there is no real life data to look at.\u00a0 His first sim crop has seen 37 runners to date, from which 15 have broken their maidens with a 12.4% win rate overall.\u00a0 Those 37 runners have strongly preferred dirt, with 85% of earnings coming from dirt, but only 3 of his progeny have thus far won an allowance race, and 2 of those 3 were HOT allowance races.\u00a0 The fastest speed figures of his progeny have tended to be in sprints.\u00a0 A couple of his progeny that looked like they might appreciate extra running room backed up a bit when they stretched into the route category.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: It\u2019s hard to know what will happen for Babelsburg in this race, as she has only run once, in a hot race, she has a freshman sire with middling, at best, popularity, and she is a scratch-bred filly.\u00a0 So it\u2019s no surprise that the oddsmakers made her the longshot.\u00a0 But that maiden score showed real promise.\u00a0 She\u2019s already proven at 8f, unlike some others in this field, and she demonstrated a solid closing kick.\u00a0 Add to that the fact that this race has a lot of early speed, and there\u2019s a big opening for a solid closer.\u00a0 Babelsburg is one to watch here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#6 – Peace Bond T<\/b> (Peace and Justice x Itoupava\u2019s Flower [Sadler\u2019s Wells x Kris S.]) \u2013 Owned by pup<\/i> \u2013 7\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 7:1-2-3; $70,206<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Peace Bond T comes into this race off of a 4th<\/sup> place finish in a field of 4 in her first allowance try, beaten 7-1\/2 lengths in an 8.5f NW3L.\u00a0 But she picked a tough field to run against that day, as the winner was a stakes placed sprinter stretching out for the first time.\u00a0 Peace Bond T\u2019s previous race was her maiden-breaking run, where she earned a career high 86 SP winning by 2 lengths in an 8f MSW.\u00a0 Peace Bond T\u2019s first race, at 6.5f, saw her run 2nd<\/sup> to a filly that is stakes placed on the turf.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Peace and Justice, a son of War Front, standing in PA for $2,500, entered stud in 2017 and so has no real world children.\u00a0 In the sim, his 3yo crop includes 41 runners, of whom 33 have won at a 15% clip.\u00a0 He has 2 stakes winners (one residency, one local) from his 4yo crop, both on the turf around 8f, but no graded winners to date.\u00a0 Meanwhile, his 3yo crop has preferred dirt races (60% earnings on dirt), and in general seems to be a sprint sire.\u00a0 The dam, 18yo Itoupava\u2019s Flower, has given birth to 14 sim runners, of which Peace Bond T is the 13th<\/sup>.\u00a0 She was primarily a dirt sprinter, regardless of what her pedigree would suggest.\u00a0 Peace Bond T\u2019s sim-\u00be sibling, Angry Dude T<\/b> (Due Diligence<\/i>), is the only stakes winner of the lot, all in dirt sprints of the 6-7f range.\u00a0 Only 3 other siblings are allowance winners, mostly in turf routes.<\/p>\n

Expectation<\/span>: Peace Bond T looks to sit close to the lead in this one, but her first allowance try saw her struggle to keep up with horses at this level.\u00a0 It took her \u00be sister 6 or 7 races to really show what she could do, and there was another improvement as a 3yo, so it\u2019s possible that some progression is coming here.\u00a0 But the struggle last time in a 4 horse field, plus the fact that most of her siblings have not won an allowance, is a little concerning.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Low<\/p>\n

#7 \u2013 Seaside Fantasy<\/b> (Sea The Stars x Raging River Snake [Dansili x Storm Cat]) \u2013 Owned by empirez<\/i> \u2013 6\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 5:1-1-2; $63,390<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Seaside Fantasy comes into this race as the most accomplished filly in the field, as she picked up a 3rd<\/sup> place finish 2 races back in a 8f turf stakes, making her the only stakes placed horse in the field.\u00a0 That stakes run, on a yielding turf course, followed her maiden breaking performance, in an 8.5f turf MSW in her 3rd<\/sup> start back in September 2018.\u00a0 In that maiden score, Seaside Fantasy sat midpack early and then pounced in the stretch, running down the pacesetter and drawing away to win by 1-3\/4 lengths.\u00a0 Her most recent race was her most disappointing run, as she finished 6th<\/sup> as the 3rd<\/sup> betting choice in an 8.5 turf stakes, beaten 8-1\/4 lengths, though she earned a career high 85 SP in the process.\u00a0 That field looks pretty solid, as running 4th<\/sup> in that one was Let<\/b>, who was 4th<\/sup> in the 2018 Breeders\u2019 Bowl Filly Juvy Turf, but Seaside Fantasy struggled to keep up with the field, sitting 6th<\/sup> the entire race and never gaining on the leaders.\u00a0 She will try dirt for the first time here, hoping that she can carry some of the closing speed she found in her maiden score onto the dirt track.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: It\u2019s no surprise that this is Seaside Fantasy\u2019s first try on dirt, as her pedigree screams turf.\u00a0 Sea The Stars, 2009 European Horse of the Year and one of the highest rated sim sires ever when he entered stud, was the #23 ranked sire in the EU + NA in 2018.\u00a0 That ranking pales in comparison to his sim ranking, where his 2018 crop is currently ranked #11 (his lowest ranking).\u00a0 That 2018 crop is made up of 170 runners to date, of which 95 have earned a win, and the class has collectively won at a 20% rate.\u00a0 Sea The Stars is, not surprisingly, a turf route sire, with 75% of earnings coming on turf and 69% in routes.\u00a0 His 3yos include 6 stakes winners to date, all but one of whom has done so on turf.\u00a0 Raging River Snake, a 9yo mare, has had 3 fillies thus far, but Sea The Stars is the most expensive sire that she has been sent to.\u00a0 Raging River Snake won 7 of 38 in her career and spent most of her time on the turf, though she was equally good on the dirt.\u00a0 Her best run was a 4th<\/sup> place finish in a 7f turf stakes.\u00a0 Her first child, The New Girl<\/b> (Gold Allure<\/i>), picked up where she left off and is a G3 winner at 8f on the turf, while also winning multiple stakes in the 6.5f-7f range.\u00a0 She\u2019s still active and has earned just over $600K to date.\u00a0 The second filly, Rock River Cat<\/b> (Rock Hard Ten<\/i>), narrowly missed a stakes placing, finishing 4th<\/sup> in a 7f turf stakes, and has never finished worse than that 4th<\/sup> in 14 turf races (her debut, at 4.5f on the dirt, was far less inspiring).\u00a0 Sea The Stars has been bred to Dansili mares 25 times in the past 4 years, with 4 stakes winners and 1 graded stakes winner among the group (all on turf).<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Seaside Fantasy\u2019s pedigree and quality of past competition puts her high up on the list in this field, and she comes into this one with improving speed figures.\u00a0 It wouldn\u2019t surprise me to see her run very well here.\u00a0 But there are some red flags.\u00a0 The pedigree SCREAMS turf, and although her mother was equally good on dirt, her only dirt-trying sister proved that the dirt track isn\u2019t for everyone.\u00a0 She has also struggled in her last couple of turf races to keep up with faster horses through the stretch.\u00a0 Definitely don’t count her out of this one though.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#8 \u2013 Tempe Nights<\/b> (Drefong x Street\u2019s Closed [Street Cry x Dehere]) \u2013 Owned by worldclass9<\/i> \u2013 9\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 5:1-1-2; $53,699<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: It took a few tries for Tempe Nights to break her maiden, but she finally got to run like she wanted to when she was stretched out to 8f in her 4th<\/sup> race back in September 2018.\u00a0 Her previous 3 tries in 5-6f sprints had her closing from well off the lead but running out of room, so when she got an extra 2 furlongs, she was finally able to pounce.\u00a0 In a field of 9, she sat last early, but decided to start her move early, and by the time they hit the stretch, she was already second.\u00a0 She easily ran down the leader and drew off to win by 3, earning a 77 SP.\u00a0 Tempe Nights was given some extra time off after that race, and came back at the end of November like a horse on fire.\u00a0 Running in an 8.5f NW2L, she fell more than 10 lengths back in the backstretch, but slowly started gaining ground and then unleashed a strong kick in the stretch, coming up a mere neck short of the victory and earning a career best 92 SP.\u00a0 The winner from that one repeated next time out in a 9f allowance, where she drew off to win by 2.\u00a0 Tempe Nights cuts back by \u00bc furlong here for her first race as a 3yo.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Drefong, the 2016 Champion Sprinter in the US, entered stud in 2018 in Japan, so he has no real life progeny to note.\u00a0 The freshman sire has 60 sim runners to date, and 20 of those have found their way into the winner\u2019s circle.\u00a0 His first crop is winning at only an 11% clip, but among those is Dragon Seed<\/b>, a two-time stakes winner at 5-5.5f on the dirt.\u00a0 Much like Drefong, his progeny have been primarily dirt sprinters, with 82% of earnings coming from the dirt and 83% in sprints.\u00a0 But his bloodlines (Gio Ponti x Ghostzapper) indicate some stamina, so we may see some longer runners as the races stretch out for his 3yo crop.\u00a0 Tempe Nights is the 8th<\/sup> foal of 16yo mare Street\u2019s Closed, who was a winner of 2 from 14 races in her career.\u00a0 Street\u2019s Closed did her best work in dirt sprints, but her progeny have shown more stamina than she ever did.\u00a0 She has one stakes winner, Sara Cadet <\/b>(Fort Wood<\/i>), a local stakes winner at 8.5f, and one stakes placed horse, Raven\u2019s Pumpkin<\/b> (Raven\u2019s Pass<\/i>), who is stakes placed at 9f.\u00a0 Most of her progeny seem to prefer dirt routes.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Tempe Nights may only be 9\/1 according to the oddsmakers, but from this uninformed fan, she looks like the one to beat.\u00a0 The 92 SP in her last race is the highest in the field, and worldclass9<\/i> has given her some extra time off after that race to recoup.\u00a0 She is a deep closer who finds a race filled with pace, and her siblings all like dirt routes.\u00a0 She may want slightly more<\/i> ground than this, but she\u2019s got a real good chance in here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#9 \u2013 Seeking Zensation<\/b> (Zensational x Seeking a Miracle [Seeking The Gold x Northern Dancer]) \u2013 Owned by daydreams0<\/i> \u2013 5\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 3:1-1-0; $22,645<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Seeking Zensation made a splash early, as she was slow to get out of the gate in a 5f MSW back in August 2018, but quickly passed horses in her move from 11th<\/sup> on her way to a 1 length maiden victory.\u00a0 That run led to a stakes attempt at 5.5f, but it turns out that 5.5f may not have been enough ground.\u00a0 She again started slow, and again picked off horses, but she could only get as close as 6th<\/sup>, 2-3\/4 lengths back, before the wire.\u00a0 The 77 SP she earned there was about the same as the 78 SP from her maiden, so for her next race Seeking Zensation made a big jump to 8.5f, while dropping in class to a NW2L allowance.\u00a0 There, she demonstrated that routing is where she wants to be.\u00a0 Again starting slow, opening in 11th<\/sup> of 12, she harnessed that closing power and moved up as the race went on, and then unleashed a kick in the stretch to pull her within \u00be of the pacesetting winner, 3 lengths clear of 3rd<\/sup>.\u00a0 The winner came back to run 2nd<\/sup> in an 8f turf stakes next time out, while 3rd<\/sup> from that race ran 4th<\/sup> next time out with a 90 SP in a 9f race.\u00a0 Seeking Zensation comes into this race off a career best 88 SP in that NW2L allowance.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Zensational, a G1-winning sprinter, currently stands in Argentina and I can\u2019t find much about his current success or failure in the real world.\u00a0 In the sim, however, his 2018 crop is currently the #46 ranked crop, with 50 winners from 88 runners to date.\u00a0 The standout horse from his 3yo progeny is Rockfest Bandit<\/b>, winner of the G1 Frickazee Stakes (at 8f) and 5 of 8 races overall.\u00a0 4 others from the crop are currently stakes placed.\u00a0\u00a0 Much like his racing career, Zensational\u2019s sim progeny strongly prefer dirt sprints, with 81% of earnings on the dirt and 67% in sprints.\u00a0 The 3yo crop shows a strong affinity for dirt, though there are some strong route runners in the class as well.\u00a0 Seeking Zensation is the 3rd<\/sup> foal, all fillies, of stakes winning 14yo mare Seeking A Miracle.\u00a0 Seeking A Miracle went 8 for 39 in her career, with 2 stakes wins at 7.5f on the dirt.\u00a0 Although most of the wins were in sprints, her limited exposure to route races showed that she had some ability at the 8-9f range as well.\u00a0 Her first daughter, Drosselmiracle<\/b> (Drosselmeyer<\/i>) is an allowance winner in dirt routes, while her second daughter, Mathematical<\/b> (Algorithms<\/i>), is an allowance winner in dirt sprints, though Mathematical has also shown a closing kick and ran decently (a closing 6th<\/sup>) in her only route attempt at 8f.\u00a0 Zensational has been crossed with a Seeking The Gold mare 13 times in the past 4 years, and that cross has produced 1 stakes winner, who did so in dirt sprints.<\/p>\n

Expectation<\/span>: The pedigree may lean sprint, but Seeking Zensation has been screaming for more distance and she will get a chance here to prove that her last race was not a fluke.\u00a0 She\u2019s coming off of a strong improvement in a 2nd<\/sup> place finish in her first route effort, and the fact that she\u2019s got some stakes history that didn\u2019t cause her to crack is a sign of good things to come once she finds the right distance.\u00a0 With the speed up front, expect to see her coming late with a strong bid here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: High<\/p>\n

#10 \u2013 Bospityev<\/b> (Street Boss x Pulpit x Nureyev) \u2013 Owned by kody15<\/i> \u2013 14\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 4:1-0-1; $41,026<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Bospityev struggled early in her career, but once she was given some running room beyond 5.5f, she was finally able to stretch her legs.\u00a0 In her fourth and most recent race, a 7f MSW back in November 2018, she came back to the dirt after a failed turf effort and was finally able to run like she wanted to, and pounced.\u00a0 After having to settle behind other horses in a mad sprint for the finish line at 5f, in the 7f MSW she was able to grab the lead early, and she never looked back.\u00a0 Bospityev started out setting a reasonable pace, and the was left to run free, and she opened up a 3-1\/4 length lead at the top of the stretch.\u00a0 She then cruised to a 2 length victory, earning a career best 84 SP, a significant jump over her prior best 67.\u00a0 The 6th<\/sup> place horse from that maiden race came back next time out to win a 9f MSW with an 87 SP.\u00a0 It was a nice change for Bospityev from the short sprint, and she\u2019ll try to stretch out here again.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Street Boss, a G1-winning sprinter, was the #94 ranked sire in the EU + North America in 2018 in the real world, and is currently the #215 ranked sire for his 2018 sim class.\u00a0 That class includes 72 runners, of which 27 have currently broken their maidens, winning races at an 11.6% rate (lower than his approximately 14% rate overall).\u00a0 But what the class lacks in raw numbers, it makes up for in class.\u00a0 The 27 winners include 3 stakes winners and 2 graded stakes winners (all in dirt sprints).\u00a0 Among the graded winners are G1-winning Land Boss<\/b>, who won the G1 Hopeless Stakes at 7f before faltering when stretched out for the Breeders\u2019 Bowl Juvenile, and Winter Is Boss<\/b>, a filly who took down a 6.5f G3 on dirt.\u00a0 This shouldn\u2019t be surprising, as Street Boss\u2019s progeny have earned 65% of earnings on dirt and 60% in sprints. Pulpit has been used as the dam-sire for Zensational 5 other times over the past 4 years, and although the cross has not resulted in any stakes winners, 3 of the 5 are allowance winners, and the 7-8f distance has been the most successful.<\/p>\n

Expectations<\/span>: Once Bospityev got away from speed demon horses, she was able to settle down, set the pace, and ease her way to victory.\u00a0 It\u2019s possible that will continue has she lengthens her race distance even further, as she did not seem to have distance issues at 7f.\u00a0 But looking at the pedigree, sprinting seems more likely, and 8-8.5f might be the farthest that she can go.\u00a0 In a race with no other pace, she would be a good pick.\u00a0 But here, where there are a number of other burners looking for the lead, I worry about possible distance limitations here.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

#11 – Fuzzy Peso<\/b> (Speightstown x Danzig x Unbridled\u2019s Song) \u2013 Owned by jmslocalracers<\/i> \u2013 8\/1<\/p>\n

Race Record<\/span>: 6:1-1-2; $47,660<\/p>\n

Race History<\/span>: Fuzzy Peso broke her maiden at first asking, in a 5.5f MSW in March 2018 (5 of her 12 competitors from that race have gone on to break their maidens since).\u00a0 After that, she bounced back and forth between URC races.\u00a0 Her last 3 races, a URC allowance, a NW2L allowance, and a URC stakes, were all in turf routes, where she consistently earned 80-81 SPs, with a strong closing kick in the 2 allowances (finishing 3rd<\/sup> both times), but struggling in the stakes effort.\u00a0 Her 3 dirt races prior were significantly slower efforts (66-68 SPs), but all were at 5.5-6.5f.\u00a0 In her 3rd<\/sup> race, a 4 horse NW1x at 5.5f, she showed a little bit of a closing move in finishing 2nd<\/sup> to an eventually stakes placed dirt sprinter.\u00a0 Fuzzy Peso has improved slightly in each of her last 3 races, and she will try to get a turf to dirt boost in her first dirt route here.<\/p>\n

Pedigree<\/span>: Speightstown, a champion sprinter, was the #15 ranked US sire in 2018, and his 2018 sim crop currently ranks at #12, with 70 winners from 115 runners.\u00a0 Those runners are winning at a superb 22% rate, well above Speightstown\u2019s overall 17.5% win rate.\u00a0 He largely throws dirt sprinters (71% earnings on dirt, 64% in sprints), though his top 3yos do include a couple of turf runners.\u00a0 His 2018 sim foals include 7 stakes winners, of which 3 are turf runners and the others have won dirt sprint stakes (though 1 of those is graded placed at 8.5f).\u00a0\u00a0 The Speightstown x Danzig cross is most popular usage of Speightstown in the sim, with 31 bred in the last 4 years, including 9 now-3yos.\u00a0 Of those 31, 4 are stakes winners in dirt sprints (2 of which are graded winners, including the G1-winning Danzig on Holidays<\/b>), and another one that is stakes winner in turf routes.<\/p>\n

Expectation<\/span>: Fuzzy Peso should be taking her time in this race, sitting back in the pack and hoping that a speed duel breaks out up front.\u00a0 If it does, she’s got a chance to come on late, but there’s a chance this race could be a touch too long for her pedigree.<\/p>\n

Watch Level<\/span>: Medium<\/p>\n

—<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the field of 11 fillies for this NW1x Allowance.\u00a0 My predictions are: (1) #8 \u2013 Tempe Nights, (2) #9 \u2013 Seeking Zensation, and (3) #5 \u2013 Babelsburg (my longshot pick).\u00a0 I just think there\u2019s too much pace in here, and especially without route experience, it\u2019s possible that a couple of these frontrunners are actually just sprinters, which would make the pace even hotter.\u00a0 But who knows?\u00a0 I\u2019m not a very good handicapper\u2026<\/p>\n

Other Races To Watch This Weekend<\/span><\/b>:<\/p>\n

This week, some of the best races are on Friday, so I\u2019ve included those here.<\/p>\n

1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Kentucky \u2013 Alw NW3L @ 9f (Friday)<\/a><\/p>\n

2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Japan \u2013 Alw NW3L @ 9f-T<\/a><\/p>\n

3)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Ontario \u2013 Alw NW1x @ 6.5f-T<\/a><\/p>\n

4)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Kentucky \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 8f (Fillies) (Friday)<\/a><\/p>\n

5)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 California \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 8f<\/a><\/p>\n

6)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Germany \u2013 Alw NW2L @9f-T (Fillies) (Friday)<\/a><\/p>\n

7)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Kentucky \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 8f-T (Friday)<\/a><\/p>\n

8)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 South Africa \u2013 LOCAL Alw NW3L @ 8.5f (Fillies)<\/a><\/p>\n

9)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Germany \u2013 Alw NW3L @ 9f (Fillies)<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

First, a quick recap of last week\u2019s race.\u00a0 Forty Niner Cause looks like the real deal, as he blitzed to<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":384,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[230,229,231],"class_list":["post-47810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews","tag-3yo","tag-future-stars-series","tag-indiana"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47810","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/384"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=47810"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47810\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47819,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47810\/revisions\/47819"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=47810"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=47810"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=47810"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}