{"id":47722,"date":"2019-01-10T17:06:34","date_gmt":"2019-01-10T22:06:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=47722"},"modified":"2019-01-10T15:07:32","modified_gmt":"2019-01-10T20:07:32","slug":"future-stars-series-introduction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=47722","title":{"rendered":"Future Stars Series &#8211; Introduction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There is something invigorating about \u201cgetting in on the ground floor\u201d.\u00a0 Something special about discovering someone, or something, before it was famous.\u00a0 \u201cI knew them when\u2026\u201d\u00a0 It applies to businesses, celebrities, athletes, musicians, and many areas of the real world.\u00a0 For me, it applies to horse racing as well.\u00a0 Many of my favorite horses of all time (e.g., Ghostzapper, Uncle Mo, Honor Code) are my favorites, in part, because I watched them <i>before<\/i> they were famous Graded Stakes winners.\u00a0 I followed their progression from the maiden ranks up to the highest levels of the sport, cheering them on along the way.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s also interesting to look back at the early careers of great horses and learn about when they, maybe, <i>weren\u2019t<\/i> going to be the best and look at who they faced.\u00a0 <b>American Pharoah<\/b>\u2019s first start was actually won by <b>Om<\/b> (AP finished 5<sup>th<\/sup>).\u00a0 Om has gone on to be a multiple Graded Stakes winner.\u00a0 2<sup>nd<\/sup> place in that race, <b>Iron Fist<\/b>, is also a Graded Stakes winner.<b> <\/b>4<sup>th<\/sup> in that race was <b>Calculator<\/b>, and yep, you guessed it \u2013 he\u2019s another Graded Stakes winner.\u00a0 3<sup>rd<\/sup>\u00a0 (<b>One Lucky Dane<\/b>) and 6<sup>th<\/sup> (<b>Daddy D T<\/b>) both ended up Graded Stakes placed.\u00a0 In a MSW field of 9 back in August of 2014, 4 horses would eventually go on to earn Graded Stakes victories, and 2 more would be Graded Stakes placed.\u00a0 Not to mention that one of those horses would go on to win the first Triple Crown in 37 years.\u00a0 But on that day in August 2014, did anyone at the track, or watching on a TV somewhere, realize that they were watching such a tremendous field of horses compete?<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s also an interesting thing to look at in the Sim.\u00a0 Did you ever stop to think that your multiple G1 winner lost his maiden race to a horse that could never win another race?\u00a0 What about your $5K claimer, who managed to break his maiden against 2 Graded Stakes winners?\u00a0 Back in March 2008, <i>liam<\/i> debuted his well bred son of Kitten\u2019s Joy, <b>Ormond<\/b>.\u00a0 Ormond went off as the 6\/1 4<sup>th<\/sup> choice, but won by 3 lengths, easily breaking his maiden.\u00a0 It was the best race of Ormond\u2019s 16 race career, as he would never again finish better than 7<sup>th<\/sup> in a race (including some bottom level claimers).\u00a0 But does <i>liam<\/i> realize that, finishing 2<sup>nd<\/sup>, 3 lengths behind Ormond in that maiden race, was eventual G2 winner (and $313K earner) <b>Votary<\/b>, owned by <i>twinhollow<\/i>?\u00a0 Or even better, that the 3<sup>rd<\/sup> place finisher in that maiden race, <em>6-1\/2 lengths behind Ormond<\/em> (!), was <i>thebigshow\u2019s <\/i>eventual <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Bluegrass Derby<\/span> winner and <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Sim Hall of Famer<\/span> <b>Hot And Spicy<\/b>?\u00a0 Yes, that\u2019s right \u2013 Sim Hall of Famer Hot And Spicy lost his debut race to a horse that would <i>never finish better than 7<sup>th<\/sup> again<\/i>!<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s fascinating to look at the early races of Sim horses and wonder \u201cwhat if?\u201d\u00a0 And as I spent some time wondering about my 2yos, I started thinking \u201chmm\u2026I wonder if any of these other horses that my 2yos are running against will turn out to be good\u201d.\u00a0 If you\u2019ve ever had that thought, or even if you haven\u2019t, this new BTB series is for you.<\/p>\n<p>Welcome to the <b><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Future Stars Series<\/span><\/b>.\u00a0 In this series, I will be dipping back into the race previews that the BTB is most known for, but with a slight twist.\u00a0 Rather than focusing on the <i>current<\/i> best horses in the Sim, who are all running in major G1 races, I will instead be focusing on the horses that <i>may<\/i> be the best horses in the future, to try and get you in on the ground floor of the next big thing in the Sim.<\/p>\n<p>What does that mean, you ask?\u00a0 Well, since we already known that stakes horses are good, it means that we\u2019re going to look at a level below stakes caliber horses.\u00a0 In real life, this would likely be focusing on maiden races with the hot names in the barns of Baffert, Pletcher, Brown, and the like.\u00a0 But the real world is a little different.\u00a0 In the real world, the trainers can tell you that a horse is training particularly well, or is \u201cthe best horse I\u2019ve ever trained\u201d.\u00a0 Clockers, exercise riders and track denizens can see who is running particularly well in the mornings.\u00a0 We can see where all the $2 million Keeneland auction buys are planning on running next.\u00a0 So there is plenty of data to scope out when looking to find the next big thing before they ever even hit the race track.<\/p>\n<p>In the sim, we have very little data before a first race.\u00a0 Sure, you can see a pedigree, or who the dam was (if there was one), but that is a pittance of data.\u00a0 So instead, this series will move up slightly, to the allowance level.\u00a0 Specifically, the 3yo allowance level (As the year goes on, this may expand to cover 2yo allowance races as well).<\/p>\n<p>Using a points system that I have devised, based on prior wins, ITM finishes, speed figures, and length of victory, each week this series will preview a 3yo allowance race that has a decent chance of being a \u201ckey race\u201d that produces some of the Sim\u2019s future stars.\u00a0 The series will preview the race just like your normal previews (possibly with some additional emphasis on pedigree, as there will be less of a racing history), but instead of celebrating each horse\u2019s history, we\u2019ll be celebrating their potential future.\u00a0 At the end, I will also throw in some additional races that could be the home of future greats.<\/p>\n<p>My hope is that this series will hit on an eventual Sim Eclipse Award winner, or at least a Graded Stakes winner, so that you, the reader, can say \u201cI knew that horse when\u2026!\u201d\u00a0 It\u2019s just as, if not more, likely, that we\u2019ll end up celebrating the limitless potential of a bunch of horses that will eventually become bottom level claimers.\u00a0 But that\u2019s the great thing about getting in early \u2013 you never know if you\u2019re gonna have the next Ormond or the next Hot And Spicy. But isn\u2019t it fun to watch them to find out?<\/p>\n<p>As a preview for what\u2019s to come, here were the 10 highest scoring races for the 1<sup>st<\/sup> week of 2019:<\/p>\n<p>1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/onerace.asp?whicher=res&amp;raceid=2176146\">New York \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 9f<\/a> \u2013 Won by <b>Union Sports <\/b>(<i>razer1<\/i>), 96.336 SP<\/p>\n<p>2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/onerace.asp?whicher=res&amp;raceid=2193598\">Texas \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 6f (Fillies)<\/a> \u2013 Won by <b>Saint Ego<\/b> (<i>legends7<\/i>), 87.645 SP<\/p>\n<p>3)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/onerace.asp?whicher=res&amp;raceid=2190053\">Louisiana \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 9f<\/a> \u2013 Won by <b>Urban Special<\/b> (<i>superimpose<\/i>), 95.012 SP<\/p>\n<p>4)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/onerace.asp?whicher=res&amp;raceid=2185431\">California \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 8f<\/a> \u2013 Won by <b>Groom Delay<\/b> (<i>azul25<\/i>), 92.506 SP<\/p>\n<p>5)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/onerace.asp?whicher=res&amp;raceid=2182275\">Victoria \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 8.5f-T<\/a> \u2013 Won by <b>Legend of Zeus<\/b> (<i>deyoto8<\/i>), 98.463 SP<\/p>\n<p>6)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/onerace.asp?whicher=res&amp;raceid=2192674\">New York \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 8.5f<\/a> \u2013 Won by <b>A.P. Zapper<\/b> (<i>silversky1<\/i>), 91.389 SP<\/p>\n<p>7)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/onerace.asp?whicher=res&amp;raceid=2210958\">Arizona \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 8f (Fillies)<\/a> \u2013 Won by <b>Purple Raider<\/b> (<i>stagedoorjohnny<\/i>), 88.278 SP<\/p>\n<p>8)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/onerace.asp?whicher=res&amp;raceid=2202566\">Kentucky \u2013 Alw @ 7.5f<\/a> \u2013 Won by <b>Record of the Year<\/b> (<i>stagedoorjohnny<\/i>), 99.460 SP<\/p>\n<p>9)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/onerace.asp?whicher=res&amp;raceid=2175931\">California \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 9f-T<\/a> \u2013 Won by <b>Lever Zerrett<\/b> (<i>00cencallmoney<\/i>), 94.489 SP<\/p>\n<p>10)\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/derbyfever.com\/onerace.asp?whicher=res&amp;raceid=2185233\">Dubai \u2013 Alw NW2L @ 9f-T<\/a> \u2013 Won by <b>Always an Optimist<\/b> (<i>chorwon<\/i>), 102.800 SP<\/p>\n<p>There are some very promising 3yos ran in those races (including 2 winners from the <em>stagedoorjohnny<\/em> stable).\u00a0 In fact, 4 of the 5 fastest 3yo Allowance wins of the weekend came from this group of 10 races (including the fastest, Always an Optimist).\u00a0 Let&#8217;s see what happens with these horses as the year progresses.<\/p>\n<p>So sit back, relax, and enjoy the Future Stars Series as we try to spot the &#8220;Next Big Thing&#8221; in the Sim&#8230;before they are on anyone else&#8217;s radar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is something invigorating about \u201cgetting in on the ground floor\u201d.\u00a0 Something special about discovering someone, or something, before it<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":384,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[230,229,2],"class_list":["post-47722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-3yo","tag-future-stars-series","tag-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47722","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/384"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=47722"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47722\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47735,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47722\/revisions\/47735"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=47722"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=47722"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=47722"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}