The first point to make is matching data to make comparisons between the\u00a0game world and real life is pretty much impossible. The data therefore used is not the same so is obviously somewhat flawed but thank you to Yochem for his excellent site.\u00a0The data lends itself more to general observations, flaws and potential improvements that could be made.<\/p>\n
The data used\u00a0for the\u00a0game is by sorting data for 3yo+\u00a0game horses based on percentage of stakes wins for\u00a0dam sires with a 100+ starts in stakes race with actual real life runners as a dam sires. The real world is based on the highest number of graded winners in the Northern Hemisphere in 2018.<\/p>\n
Game top 16 Deputy Minister, Indian Charlie,\u00a0Nureyev, Danehill, Rainbow Quest, Deep Impact, Diesis, Storm Bird, Dansili, Miswaki, Lyphard, Pivotal, Storm Cat, Seattle Slew, Forty Niner and Giant’s Causeway<\/p>\n
Real Life top 16 (7 or more graded stakes winners) Galileo, Pivotal, Dansili, Unbridled’s Songs, Danehill, Singspiel, A P Indy, Sunday Silence, Danehill Dancer, Giant’s Causeway, Storm Cat, Sadler’s Well, Street Cry, Mark Of Esteem, Rock Of Gibraltar and\u00a0Anabaa<\/p>\n
I think it is fair to say both lists are not what would have\u00a0be expected.<\/p>\n
The first observation to make only\u00a05 sires are only on both lists which is a lot lower correlation than with the current sire trends. Obviously more is going on with dam sires that prevents\u00a0more realistic\u00a0results.<\/p>\n
If we get the obvious out of the way first. We can place great reliance on sire rating now but this was not historically the case. This is still having an impact upon dam sire\u00a0results though over time possible a decade the correlation will improve greatly which is good news. There are though potential ways to improve the data now\u00a0and initiatives that could enhance player’s gaming experience.<\/p>\n
The first point to make is 8 of the sires on the game list do not make the real life top 100. Nureyev, Rainbow Quest,\u00a0Diesis, Storm Bird, Miswaki, Lyphard, Seattle Slew and Forty Niner. These are all horses who are well past their sell by date. Something obviously needs to be done to address this issue. The first and obvious way would be to ban breeding scratch bred horses for any stallion dead more than 10 years as a dam sire 20 years as a DDS. This may seem harsh on new players but is not.\u00a0If you do not believe me imagine you had won the lottery and were going to the breeding stock sales Keeneland or Tattersalls to buy 10 foundation mares. Have a look through the online\u00a0catalogues and list out your choices\u00a0see what sires the mares are by. See if you can se any broodmares by these stallions.\u00a0Nobody in their right mind will be buying a mare over 15 years old.\u00a0New\u00a0players should be playing like any new entrant into the market be it real of simulated.<\/p>\n
The other 3 sires on the game top 16 are Deputy Minister the fact he is\u00a0top class\u00a0is not in dispute but as with the 8 above his influence is waning. He will soon be a footnote in the dam sire rankings and supports the theory above.<\/p>\n
Deep Impact has not really had enough time to make an impact on the real list though soon expect him to replace Sunday Silence his sire on the list further supporting in the culling of dam sires quickly for scratch breeding’s.<\/p>\n
The last horse is Indian Charlie who without looking at it is a surprise. Though a little digging tells you all you need to know. His real life runners are currently in 2018 throwing over 8.5% black type runners which compared to the top 16 real life stacks up vary well only Galileo, Pivotal and A P Indy have a higher percentage.\u00a0It would appear his high strike rate is therefore justified at the stakes winning level.\u00a0a dam sire who’s\u00a0value is not being recognised in the\u00a0game by many players.<\/p>\n
Many of the sires on the real life list are also highly rated in the\u00a0game. If we were to basically stop the old dead to reality sires producing they would make the list more fuel to incorporate that game change on dam sire usage time.<\/p>\n
We then have the others Singspiel, Danehill Dancer, Mark Of Esteem, Rock Of Gibraltar and Anabaa. Several of these fall\u00a0under the historical error category which cannot be changed though that again supports the shortening of older sires active life in the game to eradicate errors. We have two other important factors at play here which has direct relevance to the game at present and going forward.<\/p>\n
The first factor is the fact the offspring through those graded race successes are due heavily to the worlds two top sires Galileo and Dubawi. This would appear to suggest the better the \u00a0sire the\u00a0greater the\u00a0influence over results in their offspring. We have a position where in the game sire statistics by default are going to be far more reliable and more\u00a0accurate ease to access date assures this. Is it therefore worth considering increasing the percentage value of the sire over the horses bred in the game? This would support and compliment certain changes Mike has introduced over the past few years over poor sires.<\/p>\n
The second and probably more interesting is that mare quality has a major impact on results. To get into these sires you have to be an excellent producer or runner. It would therefore\u00a0make sense to increase the influence of the mare on the sliding scale with less value being placed on the actual names this better reflects real life and has two important advantages for the game.<\/p>\n
The first being how often do you read a player saying that\u00a0runners with less stellar pedigrees are not great as broodmares? This is not so in real life and an adjustment would help. It also has the added bonus that many layers have a greater affinity with the horse that was not meant to be.\u00a0This increases\u00a0the chance of future success and\u00a0has a small percentage chance of keeping that player who’s interest might wain\u00a0playing and therefore buying game credits.<\/p>\n
The second involves sires who maybe do not live up to expectations or who’s rating\u00a0results\u00a0fluctuate. You see this often in real life especially the former.\u00a0Initial crops bred to better mares poor race results and a few years later shock horror as broodmare sire results are great think of Dubai Destination recently, as the quality of the mare decreases so do the broodmare results. If you place more weight on the actual mare you replicate real life better and it can\u00a0have a positive effect on game player’s in them seeing less of a loss on an expensive purchase as the sire gets downgraded. The mirror to real life being a definite positive effect in this case.<\/p>\n
In summing up to help facilitate\u00a0more realistic dam sire results\u00a0the game probably needs to implement a few changes. The work undertaken on sire ratings over the years\u00a0has seen exceptional improvement and realistic reliable results which is beneficial to everyone. the same would also be true for dam sires.<\/p>\n
1, Reduce scratch bred breeding’s in the game by cutting down on availability of usable sires.<\/p>\n
2, Increase the breeding percentage value attributed to the dams only ability on the sliding scale.<\/p>\n
3, An increase\u00a0in the sire influence on breeding.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The first point to make is matching data to make comparisons between the\u00a0game world and real life is pretty much<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":222,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breeding"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47200","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/222"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=47200"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47200\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47206,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47200\/revisions\/47206"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=47200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=47200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=47200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}