The Sand Castle Classic has drawn an impressive field, with twenty of the best older dirt horses set to head to the gate. THE ELECTRIC CITY is the defending champion of this race, but will have his work cut out for him this year, as he drew post #18. The favorite in the race is 9\/1, so there are a boatload of horses that could make a run for the win in the end.<\/p>\n
(1) SEATTLE IS BOOKED (owner mav176, 30\/1) returns to the dirt after an uninspiring effort on the turf in an ungraded stakes last time out, as he finished eighth, 12 lengths back. Before that he ran some nice races against Grade III company late last year, putting up some 110+ SP numbers and a win back in September over in Ontario. His results in graded stakes have been somewhat inconsistent, which is one of the reasons that he is one of the longshots in this race. He finished ninth in his only other Grade I race, so I suspect he won’t be quite up to the task in this race given how deep it is, but he could finish in the top half of the field if he has a good race.<\/p>\n
(2) SOLDIER OF HONOR (owner italia1, 11\/1) will make his seventh consecutive start in a G1 race on Saturday, and will be looking for his third G1 win. He had impressive wins in the Charles Town Classic and the Bob Woodward Memorial last year, but since the latter in September, he has not been quite as sharp in his last three races. They were all solid races, finishing between third and fifth and no worse than four lengths back. That being said, he wasn’t as good as he was earlier last year. It is worth noting that he has a Group II win at Dubai last February in the Khartoum Challenge III. He seems due for a bounceback, and I could see him hitting the board here.<\/p>\n
(3) ELSWEYR (owner dirtriot, 15\/1) recently changed hands, moving from the davarto barn to the dirtriot barn. The sale was following a second-place finish in the Grade I Christmas Eve Stakes at New York last December. In his first start for the new barn, he finished midpack in a Grade I race last time out. Despite his competitiveness in most of the graded stakes he has started in, he has yet to put together enough for a victory, so that will make it difficult to pick him in a field this deep. This is a distance that he has had some success at, but he has not faced a field like this recently.<\/p>\n
(4) AMONGST THE WAVES (owner capsized, 20\/1) is one that could race better than his off odds, as he raced very well last fall. He racked up four wins in a row, including a Grade II win and a dominating Grade I win, as he won the 14-furlong Big Apple by 3 1\/4 lengths. That win was over RETREAT RIGHTS, who went on to a Grade I last time out and will leave from post #9 in this race. That winning stretch came after a six-month layoff. After a mini-layoff during the first part of the winter, he came back to finish a disappointing seventh in an Equinics race last month. He likes the early lead, and probably won’t have a ton of competition aside from some outside horses. He cuts back in distance today, and while it’s hard to tell what distance he likes, he could still be in the mix late in the race.<\/p>\n
(5) ROYAL NAVY SHIP (owner theduke96, 26\/1) has been switching between dirt and turf for the past six months, which includes a win in the Breeders’ Bowl Dirt Mile in November where he crossed the wire at better than 23\/1. He finds himself at similar odds for this race, mainly because he has not raced against older horses as much as many of the more experienced horses in this field have. That Breeders’ Bowl win is notable, though, as he beat some very good horses in that race, including some he’ll be racing against on Saturday. The distance seems to be the big question, as he has mostly been racing between 7.5-9 furlongs. He runs well late, so his preference to stalk the pace could work if the speed horses get into a duel. Could be a factor at a big price.<\/p>\n
(6) THE HOTTEST DAY (owner dragonrider2, 9\/1) has been designated the morning-line favorite for this race, despite being one of only two horses (along with ELSWEYR) to never win a graded-stakes race. He has not even raced in a G1 since last February, and given how talented this field is, it seems like a tall task to ask for a win here. On the plus side, he has had ultra-consistent form for the better part of a year, with ten straight races of 110+ SP numbers. His last four races show some variety, from winning a $9,700 allowance race at Oregon to finishing fourth at this track last time in a Group II race. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he finds his best stride in this race and puts up a really good finish, but the competition will be stiff.<\/p>\n
(7) NUKA DEATHMARCH (owner lenny6, 15\/1) is fresh off an Equinics win last time out at this distance of 10 furlongs, and his career has ramped up very quickly over the last 6-8 months. After racing well in the allowance ranks earlier last year, he finished second in the LA Derby in September. His next big challenge was tackling older horses for the first time in the Japan Dirt Cup back in December, where he blew by everyone to win by two lengths at nearly 18\/1. After a fifth-place finish in a subsequent G1 race, he won the aforementioned Equinics race last month. He looks very sharp right now and has not been intimidated when meeting the older horses – I expect a solid finish.<\/p>\n
(8) LONG WHITE SNOW (owner almaarad, 12\/1) is coming out of the same Equinics race that NUKA DEATHMARCH, but LONG WHITE SNOW did not fare as well, finishing in ninth, eight lengths back. The previous two running lines, though, do require some attention, as he finished third in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic behind BIGGEST IMPACT and LOW FIDELITY. Before that, he finished second in the Grade I Jockey Guild Gold Cup in September. The last race is uncharacteristic of his recent form – perhaps he didn’t like the extended layoff heading into that race? Tough to say, but I think he’ll run back to some of that late-2017 form on Saturday and be in contention.<\/p>\n
(9) RETREAT RIGHTS (owner chloedawg4, 21\/1) has just recently broke onto the stakes scene, but has already had success, winning his last two graded stakes races, a Grade III at New York and the Grade I California Handicap last time out by 2 1\/2 lengths. He is another example in this race of a four-year-old who has been more than able to make the change to facing older horses, rattling off those two impressive graded stakes wins. In the last race, he started almost at the back of the field, and you have to wonder if the additional horses here could pose an issue if he finds traffic. If not, he could make a run at the end to hit the board at a nice price.<\/p>\n
(10) MO CUPZ (owner kaner9, 12\/1) has taken a break from G1 competition lately following some dull efforts last fall in New York and California, where he finished eleventh and twelfth. He has recovered nicely after a lengthy layoff, winning an allowance race and finishing second in an ungraded stakes race, both with 115 SP numbers. This hints that he may be regaining some of the good form that he had earlier last year when he put up three straight SP numbers of 118, which included a win in the Grade II Cornhusker Handicap. Those recent Grade I races are worrisome, but if his recent races off the layoff are any indication, he could be rounding into form at just the right time.<\/p>\n
(11) PIES AND THIGHS (owner thethumb, 14\/1) is coming out of the same California Handicap that RETREAT RIGHTS won, but PIES AND THIGHS could only manage a sixth-place finish. He did pick up a Grade I win in the Christmas Eve Stakes back in December, but that race was restricted to 5-year-olds and up, and looking at the field overall, it wasn’t to the level of this race. There is an eye-catching SP number of 122 in the PPs from last June over a sloppy track, but he has not been able to replicate a race like that since then. He certainly has had plenty of practice at the 10-furlong distance, but I’m just not sure he’ll be quite up to the task here.<\/p>\n
(12) HOMOCIDAL JACK (owner masterm03, 13\/1) is a very-well bred horse, out of SIM hall-of-fame mare UNION JACK FLYER and by Irish-bred Dubawi. After struggling in his two previous graded stakes races, he broke through and won the Grade II Jai Alai Park Handicap by 2 1\/4 lengths last time out. He’s quietly been putting a string of nice races together back to November. Granted, none of those were the caliber of this race, and some of the subsequent races of the runner-ups in his most recent race make me question how good that race was, but he’s stepped up to the challenge each time he’s been asked over the past several months. He’s a wild card – he may be ready for the step up.<\/p>\n
(13) BIGGEST IMPACT (owner lslcrew, 13\/1) is the reigning champion of the Breeders’ Bowl Classic, but has not been at the top of his game since then. He finished sixth in the Japan Dirt Cup and finished a beaten second as the heavy favorite in a time-restricted allowance race back in January. His last race in the Equinics was no better, as he faded to finish tenth. The fourth-place finisher in this race last year, he clearly has not been in the same form this year as we was in 2017. After 26 races, are his best races behind him? It’s possible, but probably still too early to make that declaration. I’ll take a look elsewhere, though, and see if he can get out of his slump here.<\/p>\n
(14) HELLO OTTO (owner captainamerica, 14\/1) is another one who is sort of stumbling into this race following a couple of disappointing efforts, having finished a well-beaten eleventh in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic and then sixth in the Christmas Eve Stakes back in December, both of which included many horses from this race. This will be the 31st start of his career, so again you have to ask whether maybe he’s not quite as the top of his game anymore, but the long layoff is a bit of a wildcard. He has not raced since that Christmas Eve Stakes race, which was on – you guessed it – December 24th. He hasn’t had a layoff this long since early in his career, so it’s hard to say whether it will benefit him or not.<\/p>\n
(15) CADET IN THE CITY (owner cadet5, 12\/1) will be the first of the cadet entry, as they drew next to each other, ironically enough, in this field of twenty. Just like the 13 and 14, his last two races have been up to his usual standard, but he finished between six and seven lengths back in both Grade I races, which isn’t all that bad. To me, the biggest concern for him may be the distance. In his two most recent 10-furlong races, the Breeders’ Bowl Classic in November and an open allowance race last May, he held a commanding lead early in the race, only to fade in the end. It seems like his ideal distance may be closer to 9 furlongs, and while he may have have a ton of competition for the early lead, it hasn’t helped him much at 10 furlongs before.<\/p>\n
(16) CADET’S REWARD (owner cadet3, 16\/1) is another six-year-old who is trying to right the ship after some recent disappointments. He has not hit the board since the Grade I Barry Foster last June, finishing sixth or worse in his five subsequent starts. His form was very solid during the first half of 2017, but he has really struggled to recapture that form since then. Even in an ungraded stakes race last time out, he finished a well-beat ninth as the second choice in that race. He will be stretching out here, but I’m not sure that will be a big help, given how he faded at the end of recent 9-furlong races. Given his recent struggles, I’ll pass this time around.<\/p>\n
(17) FEDERAL GROUP (owner liam29, 11\/1) comes to Dubai from Florida, where he picked up a nice win in the Glenn Kegasus Tradition Killer, posting a 118 SP number and winning by nearly two lengths. This followed a rough performance in the Japan Dirt Cup, but given that it was such an anomaly, it appears the sloppy track that day was probably the culprit. He likes to be close to the early lead, although I suspect he may end up sitting behind CADET IN THE CITY early. This 10-furlong distance may be toward the top end of his liking, but it certainly seems like he has the tools to win a race like this. Any improvement off his last race probably gets him to the winner’s circle here.<\/p>\n
(18) THE ELECTRIC CITY (owner ticketman0, 13\/1) will try to defend his crown, as he wound up in the winner’s circle here last March. However, he has not won since. He is the first of two end-of-year award winners, who just happened to draw next to each other toward the outside. After a rough summer and fall last year which didn’t produce much, he has woken up a bit since, finishing second in a Grade I race back in December, and finishing a solid third in the 10-furlong Equinics race last month. He has already proven that he can win this race – now the question is whether he has rounded into good enough form to take it again.<\/p>\n
(19) LOW FIDELITY (owner carsoncity, 21\/1) is at a head-scratching price in here, as he is essentially being considered tied for 16th best in this field by the oddsmaker. Maybe it’s because of his lower SP numbers compared to some others in here, but those could improve as he continues through his four-year-old year. The runner-up in the Bluegrass Derby has not backed down in his last three starts as he has encountered older horses. Those include a second in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic (at nearly 36\/1, mind you), a third in the Japan Dirt Cup and a third in the February Stakes. I think he’s ready for this race, and I like him to hit the board despite the lousy post.<\/p>\n
(20) SPECIAL INFUSION (owner ehteam3, 33\/1) rounds out the large field as the longest shot on the board. Upon closer inspection, though, this is another four-year-old who is improving. The post is a concern, though, as he struggled mightily in the Grade I Eddie Haskell Stakes when he drew the outside, finishing 13th out of 14. Ever since a unsuccessful turf try in October, he has put together two impressive wins close to the 10-furlong distance, the first in a time-restricted allowance race in November, and the second in an ungraded stakes race last month. His SP numbers have started cracking 110, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he gets involved. However, with the rough post, I’ll opt for others this time around.<\/p>\n
My Picks:
\nWe’ll try to do better this week – none of my picks hit the board last week in the All Saints Derby. Unfortunately, this week’s race is not really any easier!<\/p>\n
(17) FEDERAL GROUP, 11\/1 – Probably in the best form in the field right now, and has been very comfortable on a fast track lately. I like his chances.<\/p>\n
(7) NUKA DEATHMARCH, 15\/1 – Coming off a nice win in the Equinics. The Australian-bred has put together some really nice races of late.<\/p>\n
(19) LOW FIDELITY, 21\/1 – Last year’s Bluegrass Derby winner has been putting together great races of late. If he steps up, he could contend for the win.<\/p>\n
(12) HOMOCIDAL JACK, 13\/1 – Has yet to race in a G1 race, but is in better form than most of this field, and I like the pedigree. I think he takes a step up here.<\/p>\n
(2) SOLDIER OF HONOR, 11\/1 – The #1-ranked horse in the route division, he has been solid, but just not able to close the deal lately.<\/p>\n
Good luck to all!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The Sand Castle Classic has drawn an impressive field, with twenty of the best older dirt horses set to head<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39998,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44952","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39998"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=44952"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44952\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44954,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44952\/revisions\/44954"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=44952"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=44952"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=44952"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}