Following trends in the breeding industry requires not just analyzing who is siring the winners of big races today.\u00a0 It starts pretty much when a sire is retired.\u00a0 A lot can be gleaned by looking at the farm that stands a stallion, how they price him and how they market him.\u00a0 In general a farm that purchases a stallion prospect wants to make their money back within three years.\u00a0 Once a sire\u2019s foals start running the game is up.\u00a0 90% of sires fail at stud.\u00a0 Stud farms want to get out as soon as they can.<\/p>\n
On the other end of things are the mare owners.\u00a0 They costs of owning a mare are not as easily quantifiable as the costs for keeping a stallion but obviously it is a business and there are bills to be paid.\u00a0 Most people who breed racehorses in America are considered commercial breeders.\u00a0 They plan on selling most of the horses they produce.<\/p>\n
Which brings us to a third group \u2013 people who buy horses to race them.\u00a0 For various reasons this group usually places higher value on young horses sired by new stallions.\u00a0 This in turn encourages mare owners to breed their mares to unproven stallions (and in turn fuels the value of outstanding young male racehorses).\u00a0 Generally speaking the first foals a sire produces are often his most valuable based on auction prices for weanlings, yearlings and two year olds (you also see it in the first mares in foal to a young stallion that go through the ring).<\/p>\n
This in turn means that mare breeders will likely send the most\/best mares to a stallion in his first year at stud.\u00a0 There will usually be a drop off in the second year and again in the third year.\u00a0 After a stallion\u2019s third year at stud things start to change.\u00a0 In his third year his oldest babies will be one year old and many will have been sold at public auction, either as weanlings or importantly as yearlings.\u00a0 Paying attention to how many mares are bred to a stallion in that third year (and also in the fourth year) you will get a sense of how breeders are reacting to a stallion.\u00a0 If the numbers of mares bred to a stallion in the third year only drops slightly from the first and second year \u2013 or even if the number holds steady you can reasonably assume that someone likes the stallion\u2019s foal.\u00a0 Mare owners may have seen newborns or weanlings that left a positive impression or been impressed by the quality of mares others sent in the first two years at stud.<\/p>\n
There is a lot of risk\/reward for mare owners who breed to a stallion in his third or fourth book.\u00a0 By that time the stud farm may be more inclined to make a deal to get mares or even have cut the stallion\u2019s stud fee to make him more attractive.\u00a0 There is some data available on how the sire\u2019s foals have been received by early purchasers.\u00a0 The risk is that by the time your foal is ready to sell the sire will have horses racing and, especially in the US which judges stallions harshly, that stallion has likely been judged as a success or failure.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s an example.\u00a0 Take Charge Indy entered stud in 2014.\u00a0 His first foals were born in 2015, they sold as yearlings in 2016.\u00a0 In November of 2016 he was sold to breeding interests in South Korea.\u00a0 If you bred to Take Charge Indy in 2016 you were left with a mare in foal to a sire who had already been considered a flop, before his first foals were three years old and before your mare had even foaled out.\u00a0 There were 66 foals registered by Take Charge Indy in 2017 and for every one that stood and nurse the farm that sold Take Charge Indy took in $17,500.\u00a0 Six of those foals were offered for sale in 2017, five of them sold.\u00a0 Two sold for more than $17,500.\u00a0 One was $35,000 and the other was $18,000.\u00a0 Things were even bleaker for mare owners who had bred in 2015.\u00a0 They paid a $20,000 stud fee.\u00a0 There were 107 foals produced at that price and 73 of them were offered for sale in 2017 of which 54 sold.\u00a0 The median price for those yearlings was $17,000.\u00a0 A lot of people were losing money on this deal.<\/p>\n
As sometimes happens, Take Charge Indy\u2019s first foals started running when they turned 3.\u00a0 He is currently the leading second crop sire in the United States.\u00a0 Breeders who jumped on board in 2016 look a little more secure as their now yearlings are being prepped to sell and might even look better if they invested in breaking and training those foals with the idea of entering them in 2yo sales next year.\u00a0 I would not be surprised to see Take Charge Indy repatriated for the 2019 breeding season.\u00a0 He was sold with a buyback clause that could be initiated if his situation changed.<\/p>\n