{"id":36409,"date":"2016-05-06T13:19:53","date_gmt":"2016-05-06T17:19:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=36409"},"modified":"2016-05-25T10:17:37","modified_gmt":"2016-05-25T14:17:37","slug":"bluegrass-derby-twenty-horses-two-minutes-to-immortality-official-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=36409","title":{"rendered":"Bluegrass Derby: Twenty Horses, Two Minutes to Immortality (Official Preview)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tens of thousands of colts and fillies are bred every year in this great game.\u00a0 And for each of them – whether a GGGG card breeding, a turfy combination, or a 3,000 credit Tapit scratch-bred – the breeder dreams of roses.\u00a0 For every first-out winner, the trainer’s mind races to one place – Kentucky on the First Saturday in May.\u00a0 This is the race for which the Sim is named and the reason why so many play.<\/span><\/p>\n

The big day has finally arrived.\u00a0 Let’s get to the field for the Bluegrass Derby!<\/span><\/p>\n

The Field<\/span><\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

#1 Outback Bloodhound 11-1<\/span><\/b> carries VYZ Racing\u2019s banner into the Bluegrass Derby for a second time.\u00a0 That stable\u2019s Outback Curium (Awesome Again) was fifth here in 2014 after winning the Florida Derby<\/i> (G1); he later ran second in the New Yorker<\/i> (G1) and fourth in the Breeders\u2019 Bowl Classic <\/i>(G1).\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Outback Bloodhound is a genuine article.\u00a0 He is the figs horse in here and looks to be the pace commander off his last two.\u00a0 The need-the-lead front-runner burned them up on the front end in the G1 All Saints Derby<\/i> and the G3 Risen Star<\/i> and there\u2019s no doubting who would win if the Derby were run over 1 1\/16 miles in Louisiana.\u00a0 His speed figure of 110 in the All Saints<\/i> is topped by nothing in the field except for his own 111 in the Risen Star<\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

John of VYZ told me he is concerned that Outback Bloodhound won\u2019t be able to \u201cenjoy[] the soft run in front that he\u2019s been allowed in this last two.\u201d\u00a0 I beg to differ with that assessment: Outback Bloodhound was loose on the lead in Louisiana but there was nothing \u201csoft\u201d about it.\u00a0 He cut out fast fractions and had plenty left in the tank.\u00a0 He earned huge pace figures in his March wire-to-wire win (E1 109, E2 117, both tops in the field) and he was just as fast in the Risen Star<\/i> in February.\u00a0 With further development, there\u2019s no telling how fast he can go.\u00a0 He was the one horse in the field who wasn\u2019t likely to be hampered by the rail draw.\u00a0 The other 19 will be able to see him from the word \u201cgo.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In-bred 3×3 to Deputy Minister, Outback Bloodhound\u2019s existence is owed as much to chance as anything.\u00a0 VYZ Racing\u2019s breeding operation has long been opposed to inbreeding of this nature but, due to a clerical error, this scratch-bred came into being.\u00a0 A happy accident indeed.<\/span><\/p>\n

With Breeders\u2019 Cup Classic pedigree top and bottom (Ghostzapper x A.P. Indy) he should get the distance, though his energy distribution tends to point to him possibly struggling with 1 \u00bc miles, as fading speed generally doesn\u2019t do well on the stretch out in the Sim.\u00a0 Still, with two huge wins at 8 \u00bd furlongs, this lightly-raced millionaire cannot be discounted.\u00a0 The Derby will be just his third race of the year and he could take another step forward.\u00a0 That\u2019s a scary thought.<\/span><\/p>\n

#2 Sipi Falls 24-1<\/span><\/b> didn’t make his debut until September 2015.\u00a0 After stretching his legs in a debut sprint, this son of Afleet Alex ripped off four consecutive wins at a mile, including the listed Aram Test S. <\/i>in Kansas (SF 102) in February.\u00a0 Deep closers usually only improve on the stretch out in the Sim so I expected him to kick on in the 1 1\/16 mile G3 Gary Asher Memorial S. <\/i>in New York.\u00a0 It didn’t happen.\u00a0 But it was hardly surprising to see him continue with his development when he won the G1 California Derby <\/i>in April 9 at 1 1\/8 miles.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sipi Falls’s dam, Bustinupstarbucks (Medaglia d’Oro), was three times a stakes winner at the classic distance of 1 1\/4 miles.\u00a0 Sire Afleet Alex was a superior racehorse, putting in one of the greatest Preakness performances ever when he won after nearly being murdered in upper stretch prior to blowing away the field in the Belmont Stakes.\u00a0 His get have won the Travers and the Breeders’ Cup Marathon.\u00a0 This one is bred to run all day.<\/span><\/p>\n

But why was the California Derby<\/i> so slow?\u00a0 It rated as the worst of the seven Derby Lock preps with a rating of just 91.6 (par for the 9f races was 99.5).\u00a0 At a speed fig of 103, it was the slowest of all the Derby Lock Prep races and it had a pretty lackluster field, given the fact that the other Grade I winners in there, Deadmoney Cadet and Storm Cat Humor, looked to be well past their best form, and runner up King Bobby is still eligible for an N2x allowance race.\u00a0 Is it possible that Sipi Falls is a second-tier player in here because he’s just not that fast?\u00a0 We know he’ll get the pace to set up his late kick and the extra furlong should help.\u00a0 But there are big question marks.<\/span><\/p>\n

#3 Lion\u2019s Slew 20-1<\/span><\/b> comes in off a 12th-place finish in Louisiana that had to be a huge disappointment to his backers.\u00a0 A winner of his first three races as a juvenile, this Turkish-bred scratch-bred was a true Steady Eddie at age two, never finishing more than a head back during his first six career starts (4-2-0, culminating in a win in the G1 Hopeless Stakes<\/i>).\u00a0 He set the pace in the Breeders\u2019 Bowl Juvenile <\/i>and gave way only grudgingly in the late stages, finishing fifth, and then won the LA Prevue <\/i>(G3) to close the campaign.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

His connections wisely avoided the Movieland Futurity<\/i> (G1) and its surrounding circus to freshen him.\u00a0 He returned with an impressive win in the sponsored G1 Vermont is 4 Lovers<\/i> in February before flopping in the All Saints Derby<\/i> (G1) after being unable to outrun Outback Bloodhound to the lead.\u00a0 He comes in off a six-week layoff and will be making just his third start in five months.\u00a0 On his best, he\u2019s dangerous, as his front-running score in Vermont at nine furlongs was visually impressive.\u00a0 A closer review of that race, however, reveals that he was loose on the lead through slow fractions (projected pace figures: 79\/68) and was flattered by the race shape, in spite of the big speed figure (106).\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

He\u2019s drawn just two posts outside of Outback Bloodhound and the two will no doubt hook up once again.\u00a0 But this is an outsider.<\/span><\/p>\n

The wiseguy pick in here is #4<\/b> Yellow Fangs 17-1<\/b>. \u00a0The son of Elusive Quality popped a 107 SF in winning the G1 Florida Derby<\/i> in his first-ever graded stakes race.\u00a0 One of the more lightly raced in here (just eight races, having won five), he is a horse on an upward trajectory and he’s gotten to this level very quickly.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Yellow Fangs debuted in – of all places – a hot race last May.\u00a0 He won it by five lengths, won an allowance two races later, then put in a solid effort in finishing fourth in the G3 Times Square Derby <\/i>in September.\u00a0 After a November listed stakes flop, his connections decided to point for nine furlong route races in order to prepare him for what they hope will be Derby glory.\u00a0 An impressive allowance win off a three-month layoff was followed by a SF 104 win in a listed event in Oklahoma.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

He’s one of many in here who will be pressing the pace.\u00a0 His Florida Derby <\/i>winning effort indicates he’ll have every shot in here, as does the fact that he’s the only three-time winner at 1 1\/8 miles in the field.\u00a0 Sire Elusive Quality threw Triple Crown should-have-been-winner Smarty Jones (if only Stewart Elliott hadn’t “pulled a Desormeaux” on him at the Belmont!) and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Raven’s Pass.\u00a0 Dam-sire A.P. Indy himself won the Belmont and the Breeders’ Cup Classic and is one of the top classic influences in North American breeding.\u00a0 I have all confidence this one will stay the distance.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

His connections should be happy to have drawn outside of two of the main speeds.\u00a0 The draw gives rider Radzinski, reunited with the colt off their Florida Derby<\/i> win, a number of options for this versatile colt.<\/span><\/p>\n

#5 Blank Space 13-1<\/span><\/b> was to be one half of an uncoupled entry sent out by the Deyoto barn along with Mount Midoriyama until that one scratched to point to the G1 Middle Jewel S.<\/i> in Baltimore.\u00a0 A five-time winner of over $650,000, Blank Space carries the expectation of a truly magical family into the Bluegrass Derby, the site of his dam\u2019s greatest victory.\u00a0 Blank Space\u2019s dam, Taylor\u2019s Story (Distorted Humor), won nearly $1.4 million in her career, including the G1 Bluegrass Oaks<\/i> here in 2010.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Blank Space is her fourth foal; half-brother Rarakinachi (Sea the Stars) won over half a million dollars, including two stakes on dirt and a Grade II placing on turf, and was 10th in the 2014 Bluegrass Derby<\/i>.\u00a0 Second dam Carol of the Bells won Pennsylvania\u2019s Grade I World Cup<\/i> at age four at a mile on the dirt and collected nearly $1.3 million, and in addition to Taylor\u2019s Story foaled Grade I winner Gengis Khani (Dalakhani), who won the G1 Corkscrew S. <\/i>himself and was 10th in the Bluegrass Derby<\/i> in 2012.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

That Blank Space is the third member of his dam\u2019s family to run in the Derby is a remarkable feat.\u00a0 And this Tapit colt is carrying that mantle well.\u00a0 He won four of his first five races as a two year-old, including the G3 Times Square Derby<\/i> at 1 1\/16 miles.\u00a0 He was a good third in the Breeders\u2019 Bowl Juvenile<\/i>.\u00a0 He was second behind Lion\u2019s Slew in Vermont before winning a listed stakes race at 1 3\/16 miles (SF 103) in March.\u00a0 His California Derby<\/i> was so-so.\u00a0 He ran third but lacked the push-button acceleration of King Bobby (2nd) or the staying power of winning closer Sipi Falls.\u00a0 His late pace figure that day (108) was a bit weak for a closer, though his tactical speed should place him more forwardly than some of the other late runners in here.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Trainer Deyoto stated that, while he didn\u2019t get up to win the California Derby<\/i>, he thought it was a perfect preparation for the Derby.\u00a0 He thinks this colt is sitting on a big race.\u00a0 He will need to take that projected step forward to be there in the late stage in this one.\u00a0 Like Yellow Falls, this is a versatile horse and being drawn inside should be a plus with two front-runners inside of him.<\/span><\/p>\n

Juvenile Breeders\u2019 Bowl <\/i>hero and two year-old champion #6 Deadmoney Cadet 18-1<\/b> is seeking to join Buda With the Slew and Tower Storm as only the third ever colt to pull off that vaunted triple, per research by Pete (Trotter1).\u00a0 I must say it doesn\u2019t look particularly likely.\u00a0 By More Than Ready out of an Unbridled\u2019s Song mare, this scratch-bred was built top and bottom to excel up to middle distances, and boy did he.\u00a0 He debuted in a hot race in March of his juvenile campaign with an eye-popping 78 SF win.\u00a0 He was a stakes winner in his third start at six and a half furlongs and he had two near-misses in graded company going two turns in the fall.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

He finished off a championship campaign with a win in the Breeders\u2019 Bowl Juvenile<\/i> and a good second to Swapsco Kitty in the G1 Movieland Futurity<\/i> (SF 107).\u00a0 That he came up second best in the big showdown with the filly champion was no disgrace, and the experience in front of two giant crowds was likely to add Derby seasoning.\u00a0 This winner of over $1.3 million then took nearly three months off and ran a decent third in the G2 Felipe Alou S.<\/i> at 1 1\/16 miles in his spring bow (SF 96) but did not move forward at all in the G1 California Derby<\/i> (7th, SF 100).\u00a0 Nobody in the field has more back class than this guy and third off the layoff he could certainly move forward, but it seems like his early speed has been a bit dull in his three year-old campaign and I have to wonder if the juvenile season took too much out of him.<\/span><\/p>\n

#7 Power Grab 14-1<\/span><\/b> is the star of Empire Maker\u2019s last Japan-based crop.\u00a0 With five wins from nine starts, he\u2019s won over $800,000 and is as consistent as they come, having popped speed figures of 104, 105, and 104 in his last three races.\u00a0 He\u2019s coming off a game runner-up finish in which he finished just a neck behind Swapsco Kitty in the G1 Sand Castle Derby<\/i>.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Power Grab is the second foal of stakes-winning dam Skunk D\u2019oro (Medaglia D\u2019oro), who just missed winning the G2 East Coast Mile<\/i> by a head and who excelled at distances up to 1 1\/16 miles.\u00a0 Older half-sister Town Skunkster (Speightstown) is 7 for 15 lifetime.\u00a0 She won a stakes a mile (112) in February and was a good fourth in her graded stakes debut last month in the G3 Dirtydirtydishragyou S.<\/i> in Iowa.\u00a0 Sire Empire Maker won the Belmont and his get handles distance quite well (see <\/i>Lex Luthor, winner of the 1 \u00bd mile Derby de English<\/i> (G1T) and Cold Empire, winner of the 1 \u00bd mile Sydney Oaks<\/i> (G1T)), though the bottom side of this pedigree indicates he\u2019ll be most effective at eight to nine panels.<\/span><\/p>\n

This colt has a good middle move and runs his race every time.\u00a0 His come-home time in Dubai was decent; his late kick in his G2 Sleepy Fan<\/i> win in February was more impressive (30.62 seconds).\u00a0 One of several in a shot here to make an impact late.<\/span><\/p>\n

The one entrant in this field whose place in history is already secure is #8 Swapsco Kitty 12-1<\/b>.\u00a0 A filly lining up against 19 colts, this scratch-bred has already won five Grade I races, including two against males, and has accomplished the almost unheard of feat of holding champion-level form for a full year.\u00a0 By the end of her juvenile campaign, she’d already outgrown the competition provided her by filly-restricted races and beat 2yo male champion Deadmoney Cadet in a historic rendition of the G1 Movieland Futurity<\/i>.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Under the current system, it is virtually impossible for a two year-old to win Horse of the Year, though any Juvenile Fillies’ winner who then beat the Juvenile winner in a Grade I showdown would no doubt be a candidate for such an honor in real-life Eclipse Award balloting.\u00a0 Scat Daddy’s only Grade I winner on dirt (from 761 runners), Swapsco Kitty now attempts to pull off a feat never before achieved by a filly in taking the Sim’s greatest prize.\u00a0 (Note: <\/b>A total of nine fillies have ever won the Kentucky Derby (three) and Epsom Derby (six) combined, races which have collectively been run nearly 400 times.\u00a0 No filly has hit the winning post first at Epsom since World War I.)<\/span><\/p>\n

Her pedigree statistics (dosage etc.) aside, the Great Filly may struggle with the distance.\u00a0 Scat Daddy’s get has preferred short going, and Saint Ballado is more of a middle distance influence.\u00a0 (I think I had published a piece slagging off Saint Ballado in the Sim Racing Form<\/i> some fifteen years ago; I’ve never been a huge fan.)\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Swapsco Kitty didn’t show her push-button acceleration in her lone 1 1\/8 mile race (a win in the Sand Castle Derby) that we’ve seen from her in previous tries going 1 1\/16 miles. She was aided by being on a slow pace (E1 95, E2 91, both at least a length slower than par of 99\/97) that day and, while you give her credit for cracking the other speed, she didn\u2019t exactly fly home either (LP 105).\u00a0 I have the Sand Castle rated fifth amongst the seven Derby Lock Preps.<\/span><\/p>\n

But at this point am I nitpicking?\u00a0 She beat males that day in a $1.5 million race with a speed figure that was respectable (104) given it was only her second race of the season.\u00a0 She comes into this race off a six-week layoff and should be primed for a big effort.\u00a0 She’ll be forwardly placed.\u00a0 In an interview Monday, trainer NY Cowboy said that he projects a \u201cbrutal\u201d pace set up by Outback Bloodhound, Awesome Kingmambo, and Deadmoney Cadet (and I\u2019ll add Lion\u2019s Slew and Nureyev\u2019s Ghost and perhaps Symboli Bird to that list).\u00a0 His expectation is that Swapsco Kitty will to \u201csit close\u201d and wait \u201cfor the best moment to take over.\u201d\u00a0 So I\u2019d look for her to be somewhere between seventh and tenth early; she may well time her move off Deadmoney Cadet as she did in the G1 Movieland Futurity<\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

She has a huge chance in here and her connections are said to be \u201cpretty confident.\u201d\u00a0 I know many neutrals will be rooting for her to do something incredible (again).<\/span><\/p>\n

#9 Dark Storm Rising 11-1 <\/span><\/b>has never won a stakes race of any kind but many punters are backing the son of Bernardini to break his stakes duck in the biggest race of them all.\u00a0 Based on male \u201cdam\u201d Striking Storm (Smart Strike), who won three sprint turf stakes, including the G3 Mr. Anderson Special<\/i> and the G2 Rising Sun Spring Cup<\/i>, topping out at a 119 SF, Dark Storm Rising has never tried the turf.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

What he has done is post three consecutive speed figures at 105 or higher and run second in three straight graded stakes routes, the most recent of which was in the G1 Arkansas Juvenile, <\/i>my top-rated of the seven Derby Lock preps.\u00a0 That day, he sat in the back, tracked by eventual winner Hidden Idenity.\u00a0 Benefitting from a suicidal pace up front, he came charging hard to best all but the winner in the lane at 6-1 odds, leaving behind him four graded stakes winners.\u00a0 Ultimately, it was Hidden Idenity\u2019s superior acceleration on the turn that made the difference.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dark Storm Rising earned a race rating of 112 for the Arkansas Juvenile<\/i>, third best in the field, and his turn time rating (118) is second only to Hidden Idenity.\u00a0 Bernardini\u2019s influence should be enough to counteract the speedy strain (Storm Cat is his dam-dam-sire) in the tail line.\u00a0 He\u2019s a major player.<\/span><\/p>\n

#10 Symboli Bird 16-1<\/span><\/b> spent Monday night heading for the also-eligibles list but drew in when Gold Sensation and Mount Midoriyama were pulled out at the last moment.\u00a0 A Japan-bred son of Symboli Kris S, he comes in with the lowest earnings in the race ($313,000) but is a Grade III winner who established his high class in running third last December behind the two juvenile champions in the G1 Movieland Futurity<\/i>.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Like many Derby hopefuls, the Bird did not take flight until route races became available to the two year-old crop.\u00a0 He won a maiden special weight race over this track by open lengths last August (SF 85) at 1 1\/16 miles and took a listed stakes event at a mile in West Virginia in November two starts later (SF 100).\u00a0 His longshot third in the Movieland Futurity<\/i> (SF 105) stamped him as a possible Derby contender, a status he validated over the same California surface in February 6th\u2019s Scam S. <\/i>G3 at 1 1\/8 miles.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Symboli Bird showed up in the G1 Florida Derby<\/i> in April as the favorite, but he never really got going early, abandoning his pace pressing tactics from the Scam<\/i> for more of a stalking trip (he sat 5th on the rail behind a wall of horses that day).\u00a0 He was empty in the stretch and ended up seventh.\u00a0 He\u2019s probably looking at a similar trip today if he\u2019s fast enough.\u00a0 He flew home in the Scam<\/i> and he\u2019s a contender if the Florida <\/i>flop is just a throwout.<\/span><\/p>\n

#11 Nureyev\u2019s Ghost 18-1 <\/span><\/b>was thought to be off the Derby trail for months.\u00a0 He won the End of the Line Futurity <\/i>(G1) here last October and then ran a good fourth in the Breeders\u2019 Bowl Juvenile<\/i>.\u00a0 But after a dull eighth in the G1 Movieland Futurity<\/i>, instead of being freshened for a Derby march, this Ghostzapper scratch-bred took a shot in a Grade II race at a mile on the turf.\u00a0 He didn\u2019t take to that surface, struggling home in 12th place.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nureyev\u2019s Ghost returned a month later in the G2 Sleepy Fan S.<\/i> in California, where he led for six furlongs before fading to fourth behind Power Grab.\u00a0 The 100 speed figure and finishing position were promising enough, but Nureyev\u2019s Ghost skipped all the Derby Lock races and instead resurfaced in the G3 Derby Trial<\/i> here on April 23.\u00a0 He pressed the pace there and finished second.\u00a0 It wasn\u2019t a strong field.<\/span><\/p>\n

The racing world was shocked when his connections submitted an entry slip just moments before the deadline for the Bluegrass Derby<\/i>.\u00a0 The only horse in the field who did not appear in any Derby Lock race, Nureyev\u2019s Ghost is a need-the-lead type who adds additional sizzle to the front end.\u00a0 The closers must have been ecstatic when they heard he\u2019d be replacing plodding closer Yer Yellow in the starting gate.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Nureyev\u2019s Ghost hasn\u2019t won a race in seven months.\u00a0 This is a heck of a spot to try to break a losing streak.<\/span><\/p>\n

#12 Lightning Strife 13-1 <\/span><\/b>made an impressive middle move in the G1 Corkscrew S.<\/i> in his first attempt at 1 1\/8 miles, finishing third (SF 104) in what looks like a very strong prep for this.\u00a0 His race two back in the G3 Buccaneer Derby<\/i> over a wet track in Florida (SF 110) still stands as one of the best three year-old races to date, and on the same scale as the All Saints Derby<\/i> this colt would have achieved an E2 rating of 120, a remarkable number for a closer, and by far the best of any hopeful in this field.\u00a0 A closer who has more tactical speed than a lot of the plodding types in here, this son of Awesome Again should be well positioned to launch a bid before many of the other threatening closers make their moves.\u00a0 Tactical speed of this kind is a big advantage in a huge field as it gives him a chance to avoid trouble.<\/span><\/p>\n

A lifetime winner of nearly $900,000, this colt appears to be back into top form, with plenty of back class (winner of the G1 North Fork S. as a two year-old) to call on.\u00a0 This is dam Magpie\u2019s Cat\u2019s (Storm Cat) third graded stakes winner, and Lightning Strife\u2019s family includes G1-winning sister Stormy Lyric (Unbridled\u2019s Song).\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

#13 Papa\u2019s Ghost Ted 17-1<\/span><\/b> is the only horse in the field to have run in two separate Derby Lock preps, having finished 3rd in Dubai before a 7th-place flop off two weeks\u2019 rest in the G1 Corkscrew<\/i>.\u00a0 His <\/span>efforts in G1 Sand Castle Derby <\/i>and the G1 Vermont is 4 Lovers<\/i> were sneaky good, and note that he won a 1 3\/16 mile listed stakes back in January.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

I\u2019m going to give him a pass for the Corkscrew<\/i> clunker as I think he came back too quickly.\u00a0 With four weeks off before this, he could be live.\u00a0 His Sand Castle<\/i> produced a late pace fig of 122, fifth best in the field, and even though he made no impact in the Corkscrew<\/i> he still produced a good late kick (LP 118).\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

The only Cal-bred in the field, this one has a modest pedigree.\u00a0 Sire Papa Clem has no graded winners from 172 foals.\u00a0 Dam Taser Zapped T (Ghostzapper) produced a line of just 1-1-1 from 16 starts.\u00a0 This is her third foal and by far her most accomplished.<\/span><\/p>\n

If not for a so-so effort in the Corkscrew<\/i>, he\u2019d look like a serious contender.\u00a0 Don\u2019t sleep on this longshot.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

#14 Awesome Kingmambo 14-1 <\/span><\/b>gave about as balanced an effort as one can in his second place finish in the G1 Corkscrew S.<\/i> here four weeks ago: E1 99, E2 100, Turn Time 101, Pace Power Factor 101, LP 98, Rating 98.5.\u00a0 His 12th career race, the Corkscrew<\/i> represented perhaps his best effort to date, as he was the only horse in the top four placings early to finish in the top five at the wire.\u00a0 While his line looks like a \u201cfade\u201d line, his balanced pace figures indicate that he was rationing his speed well and just didn\u2019t face anything that could run with him early.\u00a0 Indeed, this reporter covered that race and pegged it as \u201cdevoid of [early] speed.\u201d\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

A scratch-bred by Awesome Again, this colt had won five straight races prior to his second place Corkscrew<\/i> finish.\u00a0 His G2 Fountain of Ute<\/i> win was special and was flattered <\/span>when that race\u2019s 6th place finisher, I Love Lucy\u2019s Kash, just missed in the G1 Florida Derby<\/i> (2nd by a neck).\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

It will be interesting to see if he can settle behind speedball Outback Bloodhound; he can\u2019t possibly outrun him to the first turn, can he?\u00a0 While this one has rarely been headed, his handlers have brilliantly found him fields where he can control the pace.\u00a0 But he\u2019s never popped early fractions like \u2018Bloodhound\u2019.\u00a0 The outside draw could be a hindrance to him; he has a lot of extra ground to cover to get clear.<\/span><\/p>\n

#15 Hidden Idenity 13-1 <\/span><\/b>is an Uncle Mo x A.P. Indy x Fappiano scratch-bred who gives his sire a real chance at a Kentucky Derby (Nyquist, Outwork, Mo Tom) \/ Bluegrass Derby double this year.\u00a0 After beginning his career with just one win in six tries, including a seventh-place finish in his only stakes appearance, this colt has taken off.\u00a0 He won two 1 1\/16 mile allowance races by open lengths in December and January and stepped up impressively to 1 1\/8 in winning the listed From Now to Eternity<\/i> stakes in Illinois (SF 103).<\/span><\/p>\n

The deep closer served notice to the division in a very fast renewal of the G2 Land\u2019s End<\/i>, coming from far back in the field to nearly nail winning front-runner Awesome Indy Wells on the wire.\u00a0 The speed figure for each of the top two in that race was a gaudy 110, and while the Land\u2019s End<\/i> is not part of my figure making array (because it is not a final Derby prep), on the same scale he would have gotten an eye-popping 144 <\/b>late pace figure in that race, the best in this field by a full length!\u00a0 He then validated that performance with an impressive win in the G1 Arkansas Juvenile<\/i>, leading a closers\u2019 cavalry charge to the wire, and outkicking Dark Storm Rising to victory.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

The Arkansas Juvenile<\/i> had a suicidal pace (E1 106, E2 111) \u2013 by far the fastest of the nine furlong Derby Lock Preps (par for the 9f preps was 99\/97) \u2013 but Hidden Idenity\u2019s performance in the Land\u2019s End<\/i> was not aided by such a setup; the figures there were only slightly faster than par early.\u00a0 (Note<\/b>: Figure analysis shows that the Land\u2019s End<\/i> should be a very key race this year.)\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

The only question for me then is whether or not Hidden Idenity will handle the distance.\u00a0 With A.P. Indy and Fappiano on the bottom there is little worry about the dam\u2019s side.\u00a0 The issue \u2013 as with Nyquist, who will go favored in the Kentucky Derby \u2013 is with Uncle Mo.\u00a0 Mo was brilliant up to 1 1\/16 miles but he flopped as a three year-old in the Wood Memorial.\u00a0 In the sim, his best runners have tended to top out at about eight to nine furlongs.\u00a0 But given this one\u2019s style and the way he\u2019s improved with distance, I\u2019m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.\u00a0 He\u2019s my top selection.<\/span><\/p>\n

#16 Vyrantium 11-1 <\/span><\/b>has never gone longer than 1 1\/16 miles and has a true sprinter’s pedigree.\u00a0 Sire More Than Ready reminded everyone of his brilliance when he returned from the Derby trail in the seven-furlong King’s Bishop at Saratoga, and his get tends to be sprint- and middle-distance-oriented, especially when not backed up by a stout dam’s side.\u00a0 Vyrantium’s dam (by Storm Cat out of a Mr. Prospector mare) is all speed, and she was at her best at 1 1\/16 miles (won a listed stakes with a 115 SF, 2nd in the G2 Pitcher Molly<\/i>).\u00a0 Two stakes-winning half brothers to Vyrantium (from stout sires, to boot) have done their best running in sprints or at a mile.<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, one cannot overlook the fact that this is a very serious racehorse who is prolific around two turns.\u00a0 He missed by just a head in the G1 End of the Line Futurity<\/i> and by a half-length in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile<\/i>, both over this race track, last October.\u00a0 He topped a 100 SF in each attempt, and then followed it up with a strong 4th behind Swapsco Kitty and Deadmoney Cadet in the G1 Hollywood Futurity<\/i> showdown between those two champions.\u00a0 His 3yo debut win at a mile (G3 Dubai 2000 Guineas<\/i>) was impressive as was his fast-closing second in the All Saints Derby<\/i> (G1).\u00a0 Vyrantium was the only horse to hit the superfecta that day that wasn\u2019t on the pace as Outback Bloodhound went wire to wire.\u00a0 Vyrantium looked the part of a Derby horse that day, and the final figure (SF 108) backed it up, though the late pace figure (106) was light for a horse who comes from the back.\u00a0 There is a risk that this is a bit of a grinder-type, more suited for the bottom of the ticket.\u00a0 Still, if he can improve on the stretch-out, he\u2019s a factor for at least a piece.<\/span><\/p>\n

#17 Double Dissolution 18-1 <\/span><\/b>(Sepoy) seeks to become the first Aussie-bred winner of the Bluegrass Derby per research by Pete (Trotter1).\u00a0 Just 1-for-6 as a two year-old, this colt blew through his conditions upon turning three by winning an entry-level allowance, the G2 Moises Alou Cap<\/i>, and the G1 Corkscrew <\/i>in rapid succession.\u00a0 In the Moises Alou<\/i>, he closed <\/span>from dead last at the half to win by a head at 14-1 odds at 1 1\/16 miles.\u00a0 <\/span>And while that field looked suspect, his win in the Corkscrew was absolutely bona fide.\u00a0 As in the Moises Alou<\/i>, he broke dead last and was dead last at the half before beginning a very late move.\u00a0 He was flying late and won by nearly two lengths, pulling clear with every stride.\u00a0 Another 50 yards and he might have won by ten lengths.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

This colt reminds me a bit of Cigar \u2013 impeccably bred for the turf but ended up preferring dirt stardom.\u00a0 His record on turf: 2-0-0-1 for $5,620.\u00a0 On dirt?\u00a0 7-4-2-1 for over $1.2 million.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trainer Lado told me Tuesday morning that he was supremely confident of Double Dissolution\u2019s ability to hit the exacta in the Corkscrew<\/i> and earn his berth in the Derby field.\u00a0 Expect him to be dead last early again; Lado stated that he wants his colt to be part of a \u201ccavalry charge\u201d and will probably commence his move midway down the backstretch.\u00a0 Lado also said he expects a driving, blanket finish.\u00a0 One must imagine he\u2019ll have a couple fitful nights of sleep coming up.<\/span><\/p>\n

Double Dissolution\u2019s speed figure from the Corkscrew (108) absolutely stamps him as a contender; he was possibly the most impressive winner of all seven Derby Lock prep races.\u00a0 His late pace figure over this track was a tremendous 140 and he earned a race rating of 114 for that performance.\u00a0 He is a must use in exotics.<\/span><\/p>\n

Don\u2019t tell winner #18 Bloodboiling 15-1 <\/b>that the G1 Wooden Indian <\/i>came up weak.\u00a0 In just his sixth career start, he flew through the New York stretch to pick up his first-ever stakes win, earning a SF of 104 in winning by nearly three widening lengths.\u00a0 The deep closer earned a late pace figure of 124 that day, fourth best in the field.\u00a0 Notably, he improved his performance in handling the extra sixteenth of a mile he picked up in moving from a runner-up finish in the G3 Gary Asher Memorial S.<\/i>\u00a0 Deep closers in the Sim tend to do better with distance, and with an extra furlong to do his work he\u2019s dangerous.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unbeaten at two, sire Violence (Medaglia D\u2019oro) never got to try classic distances, having been retired after a runner-up effort in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, though he won two route graded stakes, including the G1 Hollywood Futurity.\u00a0 The bottom side of the pedigree provides ample stamina, as dam Creeping Flow (Tiznow) <\/span>won nearly $600,000, including a runner-up finish in a Grade II race at two miles<\/i><\/b>.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

#19 King Bobby\u2019s 25-1 <\/span><\/b>connections had to sweat out life on the bubble but drew in.\u00a0 A member of Shanghai Bobby\u2019s second crop, this colt has just two wins lifetime but comes in off second-place finishes in the G2 Moises Alou Cap<\/i> (SF 106) and the G1 California Derby<\/i> (SF 103).\u00a0 He did well to wrest the lead away from the other pace horses in the Moises Alou<\/i> before being nailed on the line by Double Dissolution, who came from 14th place in that field.\u00a0 Note also that he made a bold move to take a brief lead in his last before succumbing to late-running winner Sipi Falls.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Sire Shanghai Bobby (Harlan\u2019s Holiday) started his Sim career with a bang, with two year-old scratch-bred Legends Blend winning the G1 Ana Delia Memorial<\/i> in March 2014.\u00a0 His progeny have no graded stakes wins since.\u00a0 Needless to say, King Bobby got his class from his dam, If IWere King (Kingmambo), the mother of G2-winning juvenile Informative (Admire Moon).\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

His running style makes him interesting.\u00a0 Of those in the field, only he, Swapsco Kitty, and Yellow Fangs figure to stack up behind the anticipated speed duel.\u00a0 If he fires, he could get that run to the lead he got in the Moises Alou<\/i>.\u00a0 But for me he\u2019s an outsider.<\/span><\/p>\n

#20 I Love Lucy\u2019s Kash 14-1<\/span><\/b> served notice to this division over this track last November, when he won the G2 Club S.<\/i> by three and a half lengths going away (SF 102).\u00a0 It was a Breeders\u2019 Bowl <\/i>caliber performance, though he didn\u2019t develop quickly enough to run in the fall showpiece.\u00a0 He returned to the races in Louisiana in January, coming from second last to finish second amongst a very good field in the G3 Legoland<\/i> (102 SF).\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Kashbarn Racing Stables\u2019 manager decided on this mating while watching an episode of \u201cI Love Lucy,\u201d hence the name.\u00a0 He represents his barn\u2019s first-ever Bluegrass Derby<\/i> starter.<\/span><\/p>\n

A winner of $725,000 lifetime, this scratch-bred was sent to Florida to prepare for the Bluegrass Derby.\u00a0 He threw in a clunker two back in the G2 Fountain of Ute<\/i> (SF 97, 6th), a race that his trainer described as a \u201cthrow away race\u201d; in hindsight, I was told, his connections thought maybe he was a bit overtaxed coming into that race and could have used more time off.\u00a0 He opened eyes with his fast-closing second in the G1 Florida Derby<\/i> (SF 107).\u00a0 In a field in which the first and third finishers were within a length of the leader at the first call, I Love Lucy\u2019s Kash came from 13th place to roar at Yellow Fangs, missing by just a neck.\u00a0 His late pace figure of 133 is second-tops in this field and his race rating of 109 is fourth best.\u00a0 With Awesome Again, A.P. Indy, and Alydar in the pedigree, he should handle the distance.\u00a0 If the Florida Derby version of this colt shows up, look out.<\/span><\/p>\n

By the Numbers (Derby Lock Preps Only)<\/span><\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Top (Sim) Speed Figure:
\n<\/span><\/b>1.\u00a0 Outback Bloodhound 110
\n2.\u00a0 Hidden Idenity 109
\n3.\u00a0 Vyrantium 108.3
\n4.\u00a0 Double Dissolution 108.2
\n5.\u00a0 Yellow Fangs 107.8<\/span><\/p>\n

Top Race Rating:
\n<\/span><\/b>1.\u00a0 Hidden Idenity 119
\n2.\u00a0 Double Dissolution 114
\n3.\u00a0 Dark Storm Rising 112
\n4.\u00a0 I Love Lucy\u2019s Kash 109
\n5.\u00a0 Yellow Fangs 106<\/span><\/p>\n

Different from the Sim\u2019s Speed Figure, I compute the Race Rating based on a combination of pace figures and other situational factors.\u00a0 (The number is computed using the same computer that that dating website uses to compute its \u201c37 factors of compatibility.\u201d)\u00a0 The five-point drop from Hidden Idenity to Double Dissolution is significant.<\/span><\/p>\n

Top Turn Time:
\n<\/span><\/b>1.\u00a0 Hidden Idenity 122
\n2.\u00a0 Dark Storm Rising 118
\n3.\u00a0 Double Dissolution 117
\n4.\u00a0 Sipi Falls 115
\n5.\u00a0 Bloodboiling 113<\/span><\/p>\n

This measures ability of a horse to crank up between the half mile and six furlong pace calls.\u00a0 Critical to building enough momentum to see through an extended closing run for closers and the key to winning a pace duel on the front end.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, the top five are all deep closers as they expend no energy in the first half mile and essentially \u201cdrop into the race\u201d half way in.\u00a0 The top turn time amongst pace horses is Outback Bloodhound\u2019s 108.<\/span><\/p>\n

Top Pace Power Factor:
\n<\/span><\/b>1.\u00a0 Outback Bloodhound 125
\n2.\u00a0 Hidden Idenity 110
\n3.\u00a0 Dark Storm Rising 109
\nNothing else above 101 <\/span><\/p>\n

Outback Bloodhound\u2019s superior Pace Power Factor (another one of my algorithms) may well spell death for anything which attempts to press the early pace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Selections<\/span><\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

I\u2019d be kidding if I said I could pick the winner out of this wide open mess. But I\u2019ll go with:
\n1.\u00a0 Hidden Idenity
\n2.\u00a0 Double Dissolution
\n3.\u00a0 Dark Storm Rising
\n4.\u00a0 Outback Bloodhound
\n5.\u00a0 I Love Lucy\u2019s Kash<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tens of thousands of colts and fillies are bred every year in this great game.\u00a0 And for each of them<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":310,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/310"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=36409"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36409\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36410,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36409\/revisions\/36410"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=36409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=36409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=36409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}