{"id":3420,"date":"2006-12-15T19:23:38","date_gmt":"2006-12-15T19:23:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=3420"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=3420","title":{"rendered":"Rated R, As In “Restricted”. That’s The DelPenn Championship Classic."},"content":{"rendered":"

I was on my holiday break! I was going to only watch my blue-blooded maiden claimers go round and round and finish second a couple hundred times, perhaps try to edit down my operations into a more manageable level (the equivalent of fitting 10 lbs. of manure into a 5 lb. bag), maybe try to get my stakes runners to win at a graded level. I wasn\u2019t going to think of witticisms, criticisms\u2026hell, I wasn\u2019t going to think at all.<\/P>

Then one foggy Christmas week, Snowchief<\/B><\/I> came to say, “CV, with your prose so bright, won\u2019t you help DelPenn out tonight?” And when she flatters you, it\u2019s like rubbing a puppy\u2019s belly. Who can resist Sharon\u2019s big editor\u2019s eyes when she looks at you that way? Plus, I\u2019m a sucker. Especially for being called a champion. I know she meant it. I do.<\/P>

Anyhoo, I don\u2019t know who\u2019s who in DelPenn. I\u2019m not one of the Chosen. But just because I didn\u2019t drink the Kool-Aid doesn\u2019t mean I can\u2019t be fair and balanced, in that new old-fashioned way. I might even mean<\/I> it. Who knows?<\/P>

So, who\u2019s in the DelPenn Championship Classic<\/B><\/I>? Nineteen horses. No wonder Sharon wanted to hand this off. It\u2019s an owner-restricted event, meaning that it\u2019s not open to the general public. It\u2019s quite possible they would have tried to make it clearer, but the We\u2019re Simply Better Than You, Why Don\u2019t You Just Admit It Handicap doesn\u2019t quite roll off the tongue quite so sleekly. Nevertheless, they soldier on bravely, with a nineteen-horse—yes, Sharon, you do owe me for this—field traveling a mile-and-a-quarter for $500,000. It\u2019s a good thing I\u2019m unbiased, fair and balanced. I don\u2019t know who\u2019s going to win. Caring? The jury\u2019s still out. But let\u2019s look anyway, shall we, boys and girls?<\/P>

Grand Canyon<\/B> [Posse-Happy Project, by Storm Cat, trained by alluvial<\/B><\/I>] has a chip on his shoulder after being fourteenth last year in this race. Where at 3 he came in fresh from the Triple Crown trail, with a Grade II win, this year hasn\u2019t brought such quality results. He was seventh in his only stakes try this year, and has four allowance wins in 2006. Thing is, three of those wins were at a mile-and-a-sixteenth, one was at nine furlongs, and with a sprinter\u2019s pedigree (Posse was a strong sprinter, and Storm Cat and Mr. Prospector don\u2019t fully scream “Classic horse”, reputations to the contrary), his prospects here seem a bit limited. He closes with a flourish, and has a string of 100+ speed figures, but nothing seems to change the fact that this distance, late run notwithstanding, is beyond his abilities. And this field, even for an elitis—er, restricted event, is a tough one to handle.<\/P>

Alina Dancer<\/B> [Gone West x Nureyev, trained by jakematt<\/B><\/I>] still fits into a NW3x allowance condition, but I guess when you win the Grade I Eddie Haskell in just your seventh start, mere mortal allowance company is just not enough. Hubris aside, however, this lightly raced colt has the goods at an early age. He hasn\u2019t won since the Haskell, but was a fast-closing second in the Grade III DelPenn Classic that they deigned to open to the great unwashed. The 106 he earned there is the best last-time-out speed figure among this motley crew, and his late-charging style fits a large field. Something gnaws at one, though, when one looks at his career, brief as it is, and it\u2019s a question of distance: is ten furlongs enough ground? Yeah, he\u2019s won at this distance, and seems to prefer it, but might more ground suit his style better? He certainly looks the part of a rising star, though, and if the pace is lively, there may be no stopping him late.<\/P>

GFW Dyna<\/B> [Spinning World x Dynaformer, trained by banditman<\/B><\/I>]\u2026what, did someone lose a bet and was forced to be entered here? Or is it that all members have to enter at least one race on this day under penalty of death? His maiden win came on the grass, and that was that for winning. That also was it for hitting the board, and that\u2019s all he has to show for credentials. His best results have come when making a charge from the rear of the field, but\u2026well, so what? He\u2019s struggled against allowance foes since the maiden win, and even if his speed figures have entered the low-90s recently (through no fault of his own), this field is loaded with talent, and his talent has been a very well-kept secret to date. His best recent numbers fall about 10-15 points behind the best of these, and that says more than any snark I could dish out.<\/P>

Indispensable<\/B> [Aptitude-Sparkling Diamond, by Diamond, trained by stretch<\/B><\/I>] has lately been more ironic than literal. His last win was fourteen months ago, and each performance has seemingly dipped in quality, even with hitting the board thrice in fourteen starts since. It appears both placement and running styles have been difficult, as this one didn\u2019t respond to just about anything he was asked to try. Sprints, routes, open stakes, restricted events, stalking, closing: it hasn\u2019t mattered, the results have been lacking. His last did finally show a spark of renewed interest last out, when he made a mild move to hang on for second in an allowance, but even if this is a race closed off to the outside world, the field is a stakes-caliber one. It\u2019s tough sledding anyway, but recent form just puts the hammer down on his chances here.<\/P><\/U>

Genocide Junkies<\/B> [Louis Quatorze x Valid Appeal, trained by sdmf1<\/B><\/I>] seemed to lose his thirst for blood after a streaky summer, but the lightly-raced three-year-old colt is coming along nicely just the same. A three-race midsummer win streak was snapped with a mild second in the LA Derby, but the resulting 108 is one of the highest recent speed figures in the field. Last out in that other<\/I> DelPenn Classic, he ducked in and out of the huge field, and for all the traffic he faced he still managed a fifth, beaten five and a half lengths. After a January injury, he only failed to pick up a check once, in the Captain Hook, and that kind of consistency is something no amount of being snotty can gloss over. His light campaign this year, too, figures strongly in his late development, and it\u2019s this kind of recent form that makes him a player in most every classic route stakes. About the only knock might be a similar big field to his last, but with one less horse, that\u2019s one less rubbernecker to negotiate around. Expect him to make another solid late run, but the inside post in the huge field isn\u2019t likely to help him all that much. (Trivia: he broke his maiden a year ago this weekend up in New Jersey. It\u2019s the most wonderful time of the year, for him, maybe.)<\/P>

Barb\u2019s Adventure<\/B> [Palace Music x Al Hattab, trained by sprintbarn<\/B><\/I>] has 11 wins and is #2 in the marathon division. Routing is something he can do well\u2026provided it\u2019s a really long route. He has one win in four ten-furlong races, but fortunately the win was a biggie, in the Grade II Upstate BB Stakes Labor Day weekend. That was an authoritative one, by about three lengths, but this horse is a tough out when the races are about a furlong or two longer. Shorter races are a crap shoot for him, and in a huge field such as this, there\u2019s just so much more to overcome. Expect him to make his usual deep closing rally, but this one would honestly be better suited by an extra quarter-mile to run. His speed figures, though, are highly consistent, and on a class level, he\u2019s surely going to be tough.<\/P>

Travis Bickle<\/B> [Forty Niner x Storm Cat, trained by malekfarms<\/B><\/I>] has spent much of 2006 on the sidelines, apparently looking to rescue Jodie Foster or cleaning up the mean streets or something. His glory days, of a Grade II win, of being third in the Jockey Guild Gold Cup, are all but gone. The next time he sees 124 is when he visits Death Valley in August. But that\u2019s OK. For this one, it\u2019s a welcome return of a grizzled, gruff-yet-lovable type to the race in which he was a faded seventeenth a year ago. He comes back to “stakes” action in his second start after a layoff of about seven months, and if early indications are anything, he should be returning into a somewhat reasonable, modest shadow of his former self. He beat Indispensible<\/B> in an allowance last month, but let\u2019s be fair, I have maiden claimers who could possibly do that with that one\u2019s recent form; nevertheless the 97 figure, plus his stalker\u2019s effort, were pretty spiffy. He likes the lead, and if not leading, he\u2019d like to stalk the front end, so he should play up close to the front end of things here. His welcome return to action aside, though, he\u2019s far more successful at nine furlongs than at ten or more. He might still need this race, so look for him to be on or at his best next out.<\/P>

Turfing To Win<\/B> [St. Jovite-Princess Hana, by Wild Again, trained by hotfeet<\/B><\/I>] has a name shrouded in a bit of irony; he\u2019s never “turfed to win”, and in fact hasn\u2019t “turfed” in eighteen months. That said, his turf numbers really weren\u2019t all that terrible, coming at the start of his career. All five wins of his have come at lesser levels, and that is glaring. He cracked a 100, just once, earlier in the year in a NW1x for his last win, but that was for another trainer. It\u2019s hard to keep track of these things, but it should be said this horse has had six different trainers, four of them this year alone. But back to that 100: it was in his last win, at nine furlongs, and he hasn\u2019t really come close to changing that since. He\u2019s eligible still for a NW2x, but he\u2019s been placed in all kinds of silliness instead of that condition much of the year; it\u2019s again glaring that when he was spotted properly in a less competitive level, he ran pretty well, setting the pace before fading. This marks his first technically-a-stakes-race try, but with the super<\/B><\/I> villains and a cast of thousands taking a shot here, he certainly looks up against it here. He might be best advised to just go all out for the front here; that\u2019s his best game plan.<\/P>

Seek Shelter<\/B> [Seeking The Gold x Private Account, trained by super11<\/B><\/I>] started off quick, with a pair of wins right out of the box, but when he was rushed into this race last year, he was fifteenth, a disappointment for the syndicate. They spent the year licking their wounds with this one, keeping him in allowance company with results ranging from the pretty darn good (a string of races that used the turf-to-dirt angle with solid success and decent speed figures) to ridiculously mediocre (what was he doing going anywhere beyond a mile-and-a-half, anyway?) while earning a paycheck in ten of eleven 2006 starts. I really like the pedigree, and believe Private Account is seriously underrated in that middle pedigree position, but let\u2019s go back to his flops at twelve furlongs and beyond: the colt was never a serious threat in either start, never getting invested in a late run, and they expect us to believe he\u2019s one to stay the distance here? He\u2019s a distinct late threat at shorter routes, between a mile and nine furlongs, and was too far back to close the gap in his other 9-10 furlong starts, always getting a piece but never close for a win. Barring a change in tactics, even with one triple-digit figure in his past, I would expect history to repeat here, and would suggest looking elsewhere.<\/P>

Band Leader<\/B> [Machiavellian x Nureyev, trained by domedriver<\/B><\/I>] was third here in 2004, and third here last year, suggesting that the one consistent in this horse\u2019s life is congeniality (as in, “Miss\u2026”). He hasn\u2019t raced under ten furlongs in two years, and has proven himself effective in other circumstances that didn\u2019t involve DelPenn. Hmmm\u2026but anyway, he likes to sit at the rear of the field, and make that one sweeping late kick late in each race. He\u2019s 2-for-3 at this distance this year, which is a plus, but remember, he doesn\u2019t like winning this race much (or maybe just not DelPenn; just sayin\u2019, is all), and this is a pretty deep field, all things considered. He has picked up a check in each \u201906 start, but maybe the two most telling things about this one are his lack of 100+ figures this year, which tends to push him back in the list, and then his recent form, consistent as it is, has him operating much better going longer, suggesting maybe if this restricted race (and how many times can I emphasize that in one article?) were longer, his stock would rise a bit higher. If you want to play him, though, think about this: this is his second race off a ten-week layoff, and may have been shaking off the rust in a dull effort last out. Intriguing, but not enough on recent form to get fully behind.<\/P>

Higher Than A Kite(IRE)<\/B> [High Chaparral(IRE) x Lyphard, trained by super15<\/B><\/I>] is the type you want to say something about the (here, collective) sobriety of the connections for sending him in such a spot. But try as I may, I can\u2019t quite do it here, because it makes a semblance of sense to enter him here. His form is sporadic: he seemed a natural for routing near the lead early this year, with a couple of somewhat precocious starts, but he soon grew out of that after a flop in the Gary Asher. He threw in a trio of blah outings following that, but then got more on track with a pair of wins versus small fields in allowances, both wins at over ten furlongs. He flopped marathoning versus his elders in stakes company, then ran middling in a point-allowance before running solidly last out going a mile-and-a-half in a NW4x allowance. He cracked 100 for the only time in his last win, but both the running style and the end result have been somewhat erratic since then. He\u2019s bred to want the distance, turf having been eliminated as an option after his two-year-old campaign, yet his hit-or-miss quality leaves one lacking about his second start against older horses, and stalking the pace isn\u2019t likely to yield a lot of fruit versus some strong deep threats. The distance suits him, but the company might be a bit much; looking elsewhere.<\/P>

Highway Star<\/B> [Miswaki x Pleasant Colony, trained by malekfarms<\/B><\/I>] is the other malek<\/B><\/I>ish entry here, and might best be described as a sort of “rabbit” in the field. Or, you know, not. He is, however, another lightly-raced horse for his connections, with just five starts this year (and, it should be said, four wins). Surprisingly, he just broke his maiden in his first 2006 start, but he learned to like winning in a hurry as he bounded through his allowance conditions on a limited race schedule. He likes to sit off the pace and do his best running from there, and he won his only start at this distance, albeit with a less than flashy speed figure to show for it. There\u2019s no 100+ figure in his past, but his numbers in shorter routes are strong enough to be a reasonable contender here. There\u2019s not a lot of pace in the field here, so he might end up leading early on if he\u2019s so inclined. The trouble is, he\u2019s probably not strong enough to carry them gate to wire if he is alone up front. That may be why he\u2019s here: to go out early so Travis Bickle has something to chase. If this be so, it\u2019s not a bad idea at all, but otherwise, he\u2019s rather over his head. That\u2019s not to say he\u2019s not good enough here, because he should turn out to be a productive, higher-class runner. But he\u2019ll need seasoning, and that is his point here, not winning.<\/P>

Echovibe<\/B> [Victory Gallop-Senior Reality, by Hennessy, trained by sanatarium<\/B><\/I>] is another journeyman horse with dreams of grandeur. That is to say, he\u2019s got some developing skills at allowance-level, but not a lot of experience versus stakes foes (just a fifth in open company this year, and a twelfth in last year\u2019s restricted Smackdown). This is a tough spot to try and handle some strong classic-division horses for the first time, and particularly a tough spot to get a grip on ten furlongs in general, as his one previous try was a mild fourth, with a very modest speed figure. Nine furlongs appears to be his range limit, and his last at that distance was his first 100+ number, a 104 while second. He\u2019s another who likes to close from deep in the rear of the field, but there\u2019s a lot of that going around, and a lot of others who are better at it. It\u2019s another case of a good horse being asked to do something he\u2019s likely not that qualified to do.<\/P>

Fatso<\/B> [Aptitude-Their Goblin, by Caerleon, trained by domedriver<\/B><\/I>] has a refined approach behind the rather dubious name, and here the stock-in-trade is a light, meticulous campaign that\u2019s short on races, and style points\u2026and high-level success. He just broke his maiden in May, on Derby Day, and has done fairly well for himself versus allowance foes, earning an allowance win last out going thirteen furlongs. Unfortunately, that was his last win, even though he has picked up a paycheck each time out this year, and though his speed figures have risen into the mid-90s, they still fall a bit short versus these. He is lightly raced, though, this marking his seventh start on the year, and this also marks his second start off a 14-week layoff, which means he\u2019s likely prepared to make a sharper showing here, and the turn back in distance should also be helpful. The last win aside, shorter classic routes seem more to his liking, and his style of running should be helpful here, as he has speed to burn in a field with a lot of closing kicks. He\u2019s another who should be a developing threat over the next year or so, but the lack of starts and success versus more top-flight competition is a worry for this.<\/P>

San Pellegrino<\/B> [War Chant x Pleasant Colony, trained by super12<\/B><\/I>] is probably the richest NW3x horse this side of Giacomo, and he\u2019s been about as successful. He is a stakes winner from last year, but the sole thrust of career earnings has been through stakes placements; apparently it pays handsomely to be second-best. Or third-best. Or fourth-best. Or\u2026you know. Anyhoo, the five-time graded-placed three-year-old colt has been reasonably consistent on the main stage, but has struggled when it\u2019s been time to perform in a smaller arena. In his last listed stakes try before his curious bid in the Breeders Bowl Classic, he could only manage a third (against an admittedly strong field) in Jamaica. Following a stunning second in the Equinics, he could only manage a third in an Upper New York listed affair. This should theoretically be a better field to be tops in, but it\u2019s a hard sell on a horse who has just an allowance win this year, and only had that happen back in June. He\u2019ll have a late run, and not a lot of speedy horses controlling things early, and his numbers hold up very well among these. It\u2019s just that this colt has so much potential and has yet to actually tap into it en route to a win. Will this be any different, or the same ol\u2019 slacker\u2019s effort? We\u2019ll see.<\/P>

Raider USA<\/B> [Mertzon-Wayward Bro, by Broad Brush, trained by absolutbmw<\/B><\/I>] would likely be called Raiser Usa by some track announcers because there\u2019s no “.” in “USA”, but many folks wouldn\u2019t care to make a distinction anyway. I wouldn\u2019t, either, but it might be the most interesting thing about a colt bumping around the claiming ranks for much of the year like he has. He was claimed by absolutbmw<\/B><\/I> four starts ago, and promptly moved from the grass to the dirt in allowance company, and responded reasonably well, hitting the board three times, including a win last time out. The horse shows signs of improvement, but still has a stigma associated with the fact his win last out was only his second in 24 lifetime starts. There is no doubt the surface switch and the move to a new barn sparked his performances, and his appreciation for either stalking or coming from just off the pace should be nice here, if not necessarily effective, but his speed figures aren\u2019t quite up to snuff among these, and unless he\u2019s much closer to the front, he\u2019s not going to have too much to say here with all those closers charging late. He\u2019s an improving horse, but he needs more here.<\/P>

Solar Eclipse(IRE)<\/B> [Galileo x Lyphard, trained by afc3<\/B><\/I>] is a veteran also-ran of this race, finishing tenth last year and fourth two years ago. Recently he has had some adverse health issues, getting hurt in a mile-and-three-sixteenth allowance three back, which necessitated an 11-week break. His two races before the injury had yielded speed figures of a 101 and a 106, respectively; his first two starts back were a 92 and a 91, indicating in part that he\u2019s been slow getting back on track in his career. The twist, though, is that he did clear his last allowance condition before getting hurt, and has been caught in the harder conditional allowances on the comeback trail. That might be part of his recent troubles on his return, but it might partly be passing that last performance curve on the way down. It should be at least three races after a long layoff before they shake off all of their accumulated rust, and this is start #3, so it\u2019s do-or-not-do time for him. It should be said, though, that he doesn\u2019t have to be all that much here, formidable a field as this is has the potential to be, and he\u2019ll be pretty close to the front before his kick moves in. His best numbers might be behind him, but we\u2019ll see if that\u2019s the case; his back class keeps him a viable option.<\/P>

Belong To Raider<\/B> [Belong To Me-Faintly Not Jove, by Miesque\u2019s Son, trained by raider3<\/B><\/I>] is something of a late-developing three-year-old, with nothing but allowance races on his career. He\u2019s still eligible for a NW3x, but decided a restricted stakes races might be a better option. I suppose that\u2019s why they call it gambling, but with no stakes experience, it could possibly be that\u2019s why a fool and his travel fees are soon parted, too. This colt can go to the front as needed, or just sit off the lead, and has enough stamina to stick around at the end; in fact, to his credit, he\u2019s an unbeaten 1-for-1 at this distance. So, he can possibly be a pace influence on or near the lead. That being said, though, looking at his past performances, it should also be noted that he has yet to hit a triple-digit speed figure, and his best numbers have come at shorter distances, particularly at a mile, which earned him a career-best of 98 along with a victory. I would expect him to be at the front, and trying to hang in there, but with his highest figures coming at the mile, a turn back in distance might suit him better than trying a long race against a hardcore, restricted field.<\/P>

Bright Sal<\/B> [A.P Indy x Mr. Prospector, trained by keryn<\/B><\/I>] is a true stakes veteran who draws the outside post in the 19-horse field; he\u2019ll be breaking from the Water Gap, I think. He\u2019s had a successful year, with five wins in ten starts, including a win in the Mr. Ugly. While he won a graded race at 2, he\u2019s been struggling at that level since then, and his tries at ten furlongs have been lacking, including a seventh in the 2005 Bluegrass Derby. He\u2019s six-of-ten at nine-and-a-half furlongs, but winless at ten, which, call me crazy, indicates a distance limit. He caught a wet track last out, in a (9.5f) allowance win in California, and his speed figures are still pretty good among these, with three triple-digit speed figures in his last six starts. He prefers to come from off the pace, but there\u2019s not a lot of pace-setting types here to chase, which could, along with stopping cold beyond a mile-and-three-sixteenths, bode ill for his chances. Drawing an outside post doesn\u2019t hurt him, neither does the late run, but Pam Anderson should call PETA because it\u2019s not ethical to force a Sim creation to do something it clearly hates to do. Talented, but it\u2019s too strong a field with too many stretch-running types for him to make too much of an impact here.<\/P>

Instead of trying to figure out who\u2019s going to win a race I couldn\u2019t have entered even if I wanted to, and trying to handicap a nineteen-headed monster, I went to a website, random.org, and found a page that will automatically generate a list of numbers that you set the parameters on. So, I won\u2019t pick the order of finish.<\/P>

The Internet will. And its Top 5:<\/P>

1. GFW Dyna<\/P>

2. Band Leader<\/P>

3. Travis Bickle<\/P>

4. Solar Eclipse(IRE)<\/P>

5. Alina Dancer<\/P><\/B><\/DIR><\/DIR>

Bet the exacta, and become the Sim\u2019s newest millionaire. The randomly-generated order of finish is actually<\/FONT> 3-10-7-17-12-1-2-19-14-6-15-9-4-13-1116-8-18-5, but I take zero responsibility.<\/P>

Congrats to DelPenn on another day of memorable racing. Happy Christmas to all, and to all, a “Good Luck”.<\/P><\/FONT><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Meaning, You Can’t Race In Their Field Of 19. No Sirree, Bob. Not You. Neener.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":123,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3420","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/123"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3420"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3420\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3420"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3420"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3420"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}