Who was Eruption, the newbie might be inclined to ask. That is, if the newbie has never been around to read Tony\/Afc\u2019s annual laments and self-flagellation around Derby time. Eruption, dear reader, was a paragon of Derby dreams as a juvenile. He was magnificent. He lost only one race out of six as a juvenile, trouncing quality fields by daylight. He improved with each outing (with the exception of that single loss), capping his two year old career with an astonishing 113 speed figure in the Grade I Movieland Futurity. Sounds like a Derby favorite right? Sounds like a titan amongst mere mortals. So what happened? What happened was he turned three. It started out not-so-badly with a solid second in the Fountain of Ute. Next came a painful 38-length loss in the Gary Asher, and an almost-as-bad 20-length loss in the Federico. But he\u2019d turn it around for the big day, right? That\u2019s how it goes in fairy tales and fantasies. But here, in reality (well, sort of), Eruption ran\u2026like\u2026.cold\u2026molasses in the Derby, beaten by 23 lengths. Of course, he perked right up for his next start and continued on to a stellar career. But that Derby loss haunts Tony to this day.<\/p>\n
So, who would name a race for Derby hopefuls after the Derby\u2019s best-known disappointment? The DelPenners would, that\u2019s who. ☺ (By the way, Tony is a good guy and an awesome trainer, but, hey, it\u2019s DPCD.)<\/p>\n
On the inside will be Given2<\/i>\u2019s up-and-comer Given Glory<\/b>, going off at 10\/1. This son of Point Given is off to a roaring start with three wins in four starts. He has won all three of his routes and has stepped up steadily in class with no problems. This will be his first graded start, however, and he will be facing some of the best out there. His numbers are improving with each outing. He is absolutely one to watch in the next few months, but I want to see what he can do in graded company before I get too excited about him. This week will be an interesting test for him. By the way, Given<\/i> has mentioned on the message board that he has never had a graded horse by Point Given. Some people would take the hint, but I guess it\u2019s cute that he keeps up hope in the face of reality. (Kidding! It\u2019s DPCD, after all.)<\/p>\n
Next door will be Jarrod5<\/i>\u2019s What a Corka<\/b>, going off at 17\/1. This veteran of 9 starts cashes steady paychecks in minor stakes, but is taking a big step up here. I don\u2019t see this as being a crowd he can handle, but he\u2019s a very useful colt nonetheless.<\/p>\n
The next colt is Auror<\/i>\u2019s Be Auror Song<\/b>, displaying odds of 13\/1. He\u2019s been all over the map in his first four performances, but tossed off a handy win in an overnight stakes last time out. He may well appreciate stretching out another furlong here. He\u2019ll need to improve quite a bit for this race, but it\u2019s not out of the question. I like his breeding and will be interested to see how this guy develops.<\/p>\n
Wild Streets<\/b> is one of just a few Breeders\u2019 Bowl Performers to come back for DPCD. Metfield<\/i>\u2019s colt didn\u2019t much like that last race, but his trainer his hoping he\u2019ll return to the form that won the Grade 2 Camel Juvenile. While his Camel run was very nice indeed, his two other graded performances have been much less impressive. He\u2019d need to improve a fair amount to do well here, and I just don\u2019t see a good reason to expect that. Don\u2019t discount him entirely, though \u2013 more than once he has surprised people by running well at long odds.<\/p>\n
Lasthope<\/i>\u2019s Ghostly Debut<\/b> goes off at 9\/1 and is coming off a gutsy and fast win in an overnight stakes. In graded company, he ran third in the Grade I KY Horseman\u2019s, but disappointed in the North Fork. Stalker has shown some mettle, but may not be quite strong enough to take on a very serious Grade I field like this one.<\/p>\n
Barrstable<\/i> brings 32\/1 longshot Kull<\/b> to the table, and at those odds I kind of like him. He absolutely exploded in his first route attempt, beating a small field in an overnight stakes. The big question is whether it was the off track or longer distance that perked him up. I\u2019m inclined to hope it\u2019s the distance. While I don\u2019t think his chances are spectacular, I think the oddsmakers have underestimated him. There\u2019s value to be had here. <\/p>\n
Darthblur<\/i> is sending the 7\/1 Creepy Mesa<\/b> to post, and this colt is looking spectacular. He ran a freakish 99 speed fig in his last outing, trouncing the field in the Grade 3 Upper State Juvie. His only loss was his debut, he has since won three routes, improving with each as he steps up in company. The more I look at him the more I like him. Watch for him to come from several lengths back, and, in fact, just watch this guy in general. He looks like he has an interesting future ahead of him..<\/p>\n
The most accomplished horse to join the field is a filly. Levers\u2019<\/i> Sisson\u2019s Chant<\/b> won the Breeders\u2019 Bowl Juvenile Filly, as well as the Grade I Horsehead Juvenile Fillies. She put forth a huge effort in the Juvenile Fillies, winning with a 94 speed figure. She has beaten the boys only in allowance company, but if she continues her growth off the Juvie, she should be very much in contention. Biggest concern with her is that she might bounce off that big BB win. Kudos to the trainer for taking on the boys in such a big race. This filly has shown she can trounce the best of the girls \u2013 let\u2019s see what else she can do.<\/p>\n
Freeky<\/i>\u2019s Silly Cause<\/b> hasn\u2019t beat anything tougher than overnight stakes company, but she has certainly looked good doing it. The Smart Strike daughter has won her last two handily, including an overnight stakes. She posted a good number in that last race, but she\u2019s taking a very big step up here and choosing to take on the boys at the same time. I think she has a bright future, but I doubt this will be her hour to truly shine. <\/p>\n
Superstables<\/i> brings their Mr. Consistent, Psychotic Gold<\/b> to the dance this weekend. Never off the board in 7 starts, this guy is coming off a solid third in the Breeders\u2019 Bowl Juvenile. This guy simply never runs anything but a solid race. Will he still be a bridesmaid this weekend? Well, the supers managed to land him a jock with a 25% strike rate, so they\u2019re certainly doing all they can for him. He continues to speed up with each race, which should put him in contention here. I\u2019ll be surprised if he\u2019s off the board, and I\u2019ll be surprised if he wins.<\/p>\n
Crandyiv<\/i>\u2019s Henianlaunch<\/b> will hit the track as the race\u2019s 5\/1 favorite, and has landed a very nice jockey in the 16%-winning B. Ironside. This colt has been working his way up the ranks and has yet to disappoint after 8 starts. Always on the board, this speedball is coming off a gutsy win in the Club Stakes. The most notable competition for the lead will be Given Glory, who has yet to prove himself at this level, so the favorite has a real shot at stealing this race from the front. He\u2019s proved himself at this level, he\u2019s been running quickly and well, and he has a good jock. This colt has an excellent shot.<\/p>\n
Wabred1<\/i>\u2019s Northern Bullet is an interesting little colt who is improving with each outing (which is good, since he ran a 44 fig in his debut). He finished a competitive second to Creepy Mesa last time out, running a big race. He was also a solid third against a strong field in the Grade II Darling Squash. He\u2019s stretching out another furlong here, but I doubt that\u2019ll be a problem. He\u2019s absolutely one to keep an eye on. <\/p>\n
Ydracing3<\/i>\u2019s Cat Five Cyclone<\/b> is a veteran of eight races and has hit the board in five of them. He\u2019s hit the board three times in graded company, so has been a solid contender at this level. In the end, though, I doubt he\u2019s capable of keeping up with the best of the best. He has yet to crack the 90s in his races, and it\u2019s going to take better than that to hit the board here. I\u2019d also like him better if his jockey won more than 6% of the time. He\u2019s a graded-caliber horse, certainly, but the stars aren\u2019t coming together for him in this one.<\/p>\n
Pick4<\/i> rounds out the field with Otto Who<\/b>, a 27\/1 longshot. Despite those long odds, he really is a respectable runner. He\u2019s generally improved up to the overnight stakes level, but got hammered last time out in his first graded attempt. I just don\u2019t think he\u2019s meant to run in this kind of crowd, for now, anyway. S. Middleton\u2019s appalling 4% strike rate doesn\u2019t help. He has a nice career ahead of him, but not in races like this.<\/p>\n
Good luck to all the runners and thanks to DelPenn for continuing to put on one of the most competitive and fun events in the sim!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DPCD: The Grade I Eruption Juvenile<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":106,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/106"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3416"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3416\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}