{"id":3313,"date":"2006-11-09T22:53:25","date_gmt":"2006-11-09T22:53:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=3313"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=3313","title":{"rendered":"It’s Vegas, Baby, in Florida"},"content":{"rendered":"

It is November and opportunities for three year old fillies to race against only their own are dwindling.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>With recent races drawing the very top rated fillies, today\u2019s Vegas Special, a Grade I mile on the North Florida<\/st1:place> dirt, is a great chance for some talented fillies rated just behind the top ones.<\/P>

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In fact, four of the fillies ranked between 15 and 20 are here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Even with their ratings, favoritism is assigned to the sprinter Kepler Gnatet<\/B>, here off of five straight seconds.<\/P>

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

This is the inaugural running of the Vegas Special, so there\u2019s no history to go on.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>We can only note that the field contains plenty of early speed, thirteen intimidating breedings, and some of the top trainers in the game.<\/P>

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Here is a look at the field:<\/P>

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  1. Jades Treasure<\/B> (Gone West x Danzig) has shown rapid improvement in her last two races – right on schedule in her 12th<\/SUP> and 13th<\/SUP> race for TheBandit<\/I><\/B> (18%).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her speed number last time against an above average field of older is the best in the field.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She has two graded seconds: to the number three rated Zytown as a two year old and to Wango Tango early this year.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She won the last on the lead and can come from just off.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If she falls too far back too early, it will go against her.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>8-1.<\/LI><\/OL>

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    1. Lakuna<\/B> (Bachelor Duke x Irish River) possesses the most modest breeding in the field, but trainer Rioja<\/I><\/B> (12%) has to be delighted that she also possesses one of the best closing kicks in this race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>There\u2019s no shame in an eighth place finish in her last race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She passed a lot of fillies in a fantastic field in the Grade II Cotton.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>So what if she couldn\u2019t catch Breeders Bowl champ Armed With Money.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In all four wins this year, she\u2019s come from last to first, including the Grade I Grace Kelly.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That win boosted her to a top twenty rating and makes her a dangerous threat here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Only reservations are that, like most late chargers, she doesn\u2019t always fire and the distance may be short.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>7-1.<\/LI><\/OL>

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      1. Prior to two races ago, In the Gold<\/B> (Ballingarry x King Cugat) had never topped a 91 speed figure.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She\u2019s shown great improvement in her last two, and Dundey2<\/I><\/B> (15%) decides to try her in stakes for the second time.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In that first try, seven months ago, she tried to stay with early speed and faded to sixth in an eight horse field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>There are faster early fillies in here than she is, and she\u2019s never been able to rally from further behind than second.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That creates a dilemma for low percentage jockey J. D. Smith.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If she tries to stay with the early pace, she\u2019s likely to get cooked, yet that\u2019s the only way she\u2019s been successful in the past.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Time for bold jockey instructions.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>17-1.<\/LI><\/OL>

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        1. It\u2019s a milestone weekend for the LastHope1<\/I><\/B> (26%) stable as they make their 1,000th<\/SUP> career start with Espresso D\u2019Italia<\/B> (Medaglia D\u2019Oro x Miswaki).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>We\u2019d wish them luck, but this high percentage barn seldom needs it.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This filly is winless in 11 starts as a three year old, most recently finishing a length behind Lakuna out of the money in the Cotton Stakes.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She\u2019s a highly rated deep closer in a speed filled race, though, and with her connections she cannot be ignored.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In an Equinics route, she rallied from 20th<\/SUP> to second.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Though winless, she\u2019s been steadily earning checks and points against some very tough competition.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>9-1.<\/LI><\/OL>

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          1. Medalla<\/B> (Medaglia D\u2019Oro x A.P. Indy) tried a route once as a two year old, but since then she\u2019s strictly been a one turn horse for Sonsierra<\/I><\/B> (13%).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her preferred tactic in sprints has been to sit just off the lead and pounce late.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It\u2019s been working: she has three listed stakes wins and four allowance wins this year.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>How will she handle two turns?\u00a0 <\/SPAN>With her tactical speed, she should be near the pace today as she stretches out.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>We like to see ones like this who are willing to mix it up early and still have something left for the stretch.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Damsire says the stretchout should be more welcome than a problem.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>As for the class rise, shouldn\u2019t be a problem \u2013 she has a second in the Grade II Rapid City.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Is there a trend here?\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She and two others here ran the Rapid City<\/st1:place><\/st1:City> in Vermont<\/st1:place><\/st1:State> and now the Vegas Special in Florida<\/st1:place><\/st1:State>.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This must be the place for the geographically challenged.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>7-1.<\/LI><\/OL>

            \u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

            1. Papua Theft<\/B> <\/I>(A.P. Indy x Mr. Prospector) parlayed a two year old Grade I win and some success early this year into a\u00a0 <\/SPAN>start in the Bluegrass Oaks, where the Pick4<\/I><\/B> (25%) trainee showed little.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She was given a three month vacation off that and comes here fourth off the shelf.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>When she rallied against a modest field of older last time in a listed stakes, she showed she\u2019s ready to be competitive again.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>With some deep closers and about six early speed fillies, she looks ideally situated to try her rally from midpack.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Only three wins in ten route starts, she may appear to be better suited to sprint, but the patient handling from a talented trainer looks to have her primed for a top effort here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>8-1.<\/LI><\/OL>

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              1. That Right<\/B> (Giant\u2019s Causeway<\/st1:place> x Fappiano) has been involved in the top races for this year\u2019s crop.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She finished midpack in the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly and witnessed the first 19 finishers of the Bluegrass Oaks cross the line.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>There is some modest evidence this Super12<\/I><\/B> (15%) filly prefers sprints and may excel on the grass, but the Supers were encouraged enough by her last allowance race, a career high 96 speed figure, to return her to graded company at two turns here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That Mexican allowance race included a couple claimers.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is a substantial class jump.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In her favor is a midpack closing style.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>27-1.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                1. When I grow up, I want to be TexasAce<\/I><\/B> (27%).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I used to want to be JockeyMax, but now I want to be TexasAce.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>After last week, his Horseshoe<\/st1:PlaceName> Bay<\/st1:PlaceType><\/st1:place> is a top candidate to be horse of the year, and from a stable full of stakes horses, he enters 15th<\/SUP> rated Unbridled Mistress<\/B> (Awesome Again x Unbridled) here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She\u2019s the third filly in a row we\u2019ve looked at that was an also-ran in the Bluegrass Oaks.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her record on off tracks would make her an outstanding pick here had the rain come.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Alas, it promises to be sunny and ideal in northern Florida<\/st1:place><\/st1:State> on Saturday.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>With two firsts and two seconds in her last four dirt starts, her top 15 rating, her trainer, and her 21% jockey, the odds look awfully generous.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>10-1.<\/LI><\/OL>

                  \u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

                  1. Kepler Gnaget<\/B> (Rahy x Nureyev) is the top rated three year old filly sprinter.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Maianus<\/I><\/B> (15%) stretched her out to two turns last time in the Grade II Gowader, where she bid and hung to place against a pretty strong field that included Espresso D\u2019Italia. There is a disturbing pattern here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She\u2019s finished second in five straight races, and is a beaten favorite in three (almost four: her odds 7.80 and the favorite\u2019s odds 7.70) of her last six races, and she\u2019s the favorite again today.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In fact, she\u2019s been the favorite (or just about) in eleven of her past twelve races.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In that time she has three wins and six seconds.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She will certainly be among the early leaders here, and an exacta ticket that doesn\u2019t include her looks awfully risky.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>9-2.<\/LI><\/OL>

                    \u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

                    1. Exile on <\/B>Main St<\/B><\/st1:address><\/st1:Street> (Thunder Gulch x Danehill) has finished in the money seven times in seven dirt starts this year.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That includes a couple thirds in graded efforts for Super18<\/I><\/B> (19%).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In her last race, an allowance, she got off to a huge lead, and she hang on to win almost two lengths at this 8 furlong distance, but she was fading fast.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She figures to be on or near the lead here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>There is sure to be a battle for early pace, but this filly seems to run her race without concern for what others do.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>12-1.<\/LI><\/OL>

                      \u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

                      1. Wondergirl Elf<\/B> (Danzig Connection x Storm Cat) was an upset winner a couple months ago over a high quality lool Oaks Stakes field that included a couple in here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Since then, she hasn\u2019t shown trainer Zeco1<\/I><\/B> (12%) much.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>What would she need to return to her winning form?\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In the lool, Wango Tango got off to a lone early lead with Wondergirl not far behind.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>When Wango Tango tired on the sloppy surface, this one inherited a lead and won going away.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It looks more like a midpack race for her today, and she\u2019s never been one for much of a rally from far back.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Also the lool was a wet track, and Wondergirl does her best racing on wet surfaces \u2013 the lool was her only route win and her best speed figure.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>11-1.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                        1. Groomed to Romp T<\/B> (Gone West x Blushing Groom) is winless in 14 lifetime routes, and, in fact after winning her first four starts she is winless in her 21 races since.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Trained by Pick6<\/I><\/B> (10%), Groomed romped to lone leads in her last two races but faded against weaker than she meets today.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>As a two year old she led the Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly for most of the race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She has shown some versatility and can stay out of a speed duel if her connections wish.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She passed tired horses in the Rapid City Sprint and rallied for third in the South Dakota Oaks (which is actually run in South Dakota<\/st1:place><\/st1:State> to the consternation of the geographically imaginative).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The suspicion is she is here to provide a hot pace for stablemate Papua Theft.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>16-1.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                          1. \u00a0<\/SPAN>Wango Tango <\/B>(Pine Bluff x Affirmed) is a speedy sprinter (rated 13th<\/SUP> in that category) stretching out for the Zewango<\/I><\/B> (21%) barn.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She\u2019s been dancing out to early leads in sprints and should be the speed of the speed from her outside post.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her problem has been holding onto those leads.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Six times in her life she\u2019s had leads of over a length by the second call, and she only won one of those.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The hope is that she can get that lead with less effort in a route and stay the distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It\u2019s not such a far-fetched idea.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>7-1.<\/LI><\/OL>

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                            \u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

                            I\u2019d like to try something new here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Many of these are perforce estimates, but here goes:<\/P>

                            \u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

                            Top Threes:<\/P>

                            \u00a0<\/o:p><\/P>

                            Morning Line\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Kepler Gnaget 9\/2\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Lakunza 7-1\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Wango Tango 7-1<\/P>

                            Speed Last Race\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Jades Treasure 106\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Kepler Gnaget 105\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Papua Theft 104<\/P>

                            Back Speed\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Papua Theft 107\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Wango Tango 107\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Jades Treasure 104<\/P>

                            Current Class\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Kepler Gnaget\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Wango Tango\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Lakunza<\/P>

                            Early Pace\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Wango Tango\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Kepler Gnaget\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Jades Treasure<\/P>

                            Late Pace\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Lakunza\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Espresso D\u2019Italia\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Unbridled Mistress<\/P>

                            Timmn\u2019s Picks\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Papua Theft\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Lakunza\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Jades Treasure<\/P>

                            \u00a0<\/o:p><\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                            Last Chance Against Three year Olds?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":432,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3313","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3313","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/432"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3313"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3313\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}