The Grade II, $250,000 Gowader Stakes<\/I><\/B> in <\/SPAN> I\u2019ll get to the details of my association with Carol Of The Bells later, except to say that\u2026I bred her.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I did it for a GSR holiday present, and she\u2019s blossomed over the last 11 months.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Now, she\u2019s one of a full field of fourteen three-year-old fillies looking for a graded win to place on their r\u00e9sum\u00e9s before they turn four on January 1.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I\u2019m going to remain impartial, but I need to note out front that I only have one graded win under my belt from earlier this spring, and that was with a claimer I picked up over a year ago.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If Carol Of The Bells wins, I\u2019ll be in the rather unusual and somewhat ironic place of having my first homebred graded winner, but only as a breeder, with a filly I\u2019ve never trained.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It\u2019s weird, y\u2019know? She\u2019s but one of a talented bunch of fillies, and she doesn\u2019t have as high a profile as the five Top 25 miler fillies in the field, such as Grade II winner Five Points, Grade I winner Wondergirl Elf, or presumptive favorite Kepler Gnaget, who was Grade I-placed last out.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>But I do have a rooting interest here, anyway.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It won\u2019t affect the preview, but it wouldn\u2019t kill me to say that if she wins, I\u2019ll be the happiest one about it. Here\u2019s the field for the Gowader Mile. Five Points<\/SPAN><\/B> [Point Given-Pushing Forty, by Forty Niner, trained by lenny1<\/I><\/B>] draws both the rail and the circuit\u2019s top jockey for the much-maligned, still-hated lenny1<\/I><\/B>.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/I><\/B>She\u2019s a two-time Grade II winner in 2006, with earnings nearing the half-million dollar mark.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>At her best, she\u2019s a solid closing threat, like she was when she captured the Wooly Mammoth Oaks three back with a career-high speed figure of 107.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>When she\u2019s off, the results range from middling to disappointing.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her pedigree suggests distance is more natural to her instead of the mile, but the result when she tried nine furlongs —the Bluegrass Oaks, specifically—was rather blah (a fourteenth in a twenty-filly field).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The mile\u2019s been good to her, though, with a win early this year in the Grade II Los Vinegrette <\/SPAN>Stakes and a recent game third versus older fillies in the East Coast Mile last out will attest.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She won\u2019t sit far off the pace here, and there\u2019s enough early speed to make sure they\u2019re not being too leisurely about it.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If she skims the rail like she did in the Woolly Mammoth, this could be a very strong race for her; a likely contender. Guesss<\/SPAN><\/B> [Full Mandate x Prince Tenderfoot, trained by albarace1<\/I><\/B>] proves with her pedigree that you don\u2019t need to spend $25 to breed a horse that can contend against stakes competition.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>(Bargain breeders, represent!)\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She\u2019s a two-time stakes winner, plus the winner of the Bargain Oaks earlier this year, so she has some experience.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>But she\u2019s been campaigned rather hard this year: this is her fifteenth 2006 start, and there\u2019s still two months left.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The activity seems to be taking its toll on her, as her last few starts have been pretty lackluster.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She was beaten almost thirty lengths going a mile and five-sixteenths last time, and couldn\u2019t muster up her usual deep-closing kick two back at this distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She might either need a longer rest or a change of scenery of some kind—a brief return to the turf for a pep talk, or an off track, which she broke her maiden on—to get her back up and running hard again.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her speed figures haven\u2019t gotten out of the mid-90s yet, and her previous tries versus graded foes don\u2019t inspire a lot of confidence; maybe the four weeks of rest alongside the shortening-up in distance will give her a spark.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She ideally will be charging late, but she might need a gale-force tail wind in the stretch among some very imposing competition. Change My Mind<\/SPAN><\/B> [Awesome Again x <\/SPAN> Big Time Star<\/SPAN><\/B> [Aldebaran-Chicago F(<\/SPAN> Jokes On Bbor(<\/SPAN><\/B> \u00a0<\/SPAN> The Westies<\/SPAN><\/B> [Seeking The Gold-West The Escort, by Deputy Minister, trained by super28<\/I><\/B>] is a late-blossoming type from the super<\/I> syndicate who started off strong at 2, settled down at 3 but has finally come around late in her sophomore campaign.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She\u2019s a versatile runner, with equal success coming from off the pace as on the lead.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>But it took her turning back from a failed nine-furlong effort to break the magical 100-mark in her speed figures, earning a 104 in her first stakes win of the year last out in British Columbia.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>That nine-furlong effort two back really wasn\u2019t all that bad, as she got loose on an easy lead, opened up a 5+-length lead, but faded quickly in the stretch late.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It would seem she\u2019s finally coming into her own as a distaff miler.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her win last out was a quantum leap forward, as she sat in mid-pack for the first time in a long time, rated and closed with a flying finish in the stretch.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>A similar effort could be just the ticket onto the \u201cA\u201d list of three-year-old fillies, but her numbers do need to step up a notch, as some of her closest competitors have run consistently better speed figures more recently. Kepler Gnaget<\/SPAN><\/B> (try saying that three times fast) [Rahy-Sea Project II, by Nureyev, trained by marianus<\/I><\/B>] is the sole millionaires in the bunch, having just crossed the threshold with a second last out in the Grade I Remember Cupid.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her career has been more subdued than her earnings indicate, with four consecutive seconds and three listed stakes wins on the year, but when she exhibited flash, she outshone Vega$; just go back to her longshot 18-1 upset in the Equinics for proof of that.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her consistency is strong since that win, as without overextending herself in the deep end of graded races, she\u2019s been rolling in listed stakes action versus other sophomore filly sprinters.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Three wins, five seconds, three thirds over fourteen starts since the Equinics, most of the time hanging out on or near the front end\u2026it may be more Branson than Vega$, but it\u2019s a solid run on the year, and now she\u2019s back to the mile distance that she won twice at as a juvenile.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Expect to see her on the lead, but she will certainly have company, and this might be where the lack of graded experience since the Equinics comes back into play.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She\u2019s capable of making a late run, like she attempted in the Remember Cupid last time, but she\u2019s had solid experience playing with the leaders up front.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her speed figures are pretty strong, with three triple-digit races this year, and they do play well versus these, but with this being her first route since January 21, as well as start #16 on the year to date, fatigue is likely going to factor into her chances here. Wondergirl Elf<\/SPAN><\/B> [Danzig Connection-Kickin Up A Storm, by Storm Cat, trained by zeco1<\/I><\/B>] is a Top 20 miler who\u2019s begun to wind down earlier than predicted this year.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Since her last win, a victory in the Grade I lool Oaks, she\u2019s been a very listless performer in three straight graded routes against other three-year-old fillies.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Compared to a few other entrants, with just seven starts this year, she\u2019s been downright invisible\u2026invisible, and slippery when wet besides.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She likes a wet track, which is what helped her pull off the lool Oaks at 13-1 and earned her a couple of placing besides, but the forecast here is for cool, dry and fast conditions.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She\u2019s been struggling routing against graded foes this year, and is still eligible for a NW3x allowance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Certainly she\u2019s capable of hanging with the tops in her crop, but with only a single 100 in her last win and the fact that she\u2019s had three straight uninspiring efforts since then, it makes it tough to make a case for sudden improvement in this spot.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She likes to come from off the pace, though she\u2019s pretty comfortable with stalking the pace as needed; there is a lot of that going around here, though, and a late run might hold her best hopes. Carol Of The Bells<\/SPAN><\/B> [Hennessy x Private Account, trained by deyoto3<\/I><\/B>] is my homebred filly, a Saturday breeding done in advance of a sort of \u201cgrab bag\u201d of homebreds for GSR.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The story is you breed a horse like one you yourself would like as a gift, you put it in a \u201cgrab bag\u201d scenario, and you get a homebred for Christmas.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It was a fun GSR holiday special, something for the holidays that would be a pretty cool idea for the Sim.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I bred this filly on a Saturday afternoon, which given the pedigree was a good surprise, and a fellow GSR trainer landed her in the gift exchange.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Unfortunately, the filly was claimed by her current trainer in her debut, so the success wasn\u2019t limited to one of my GSR brethren, but for deyoto3<\/I><\/B> she has bloomed into a rose over the summer.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She broke her maiden versus colts in start #2, and had won every other start since the claim to clear most of her allowance conditions with style.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She\u2019s had some initial troubles since her last win, as she stepped up in class to graded-level company and wound up second in the Ontario BB Oaks two back and third in the Cotton last out, but her speed figures broke 100 in both efforts for the first time, and through 10 starts, she\u2019s remained a pretty stalwart competitor, without having broken through at this higher level.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She prefers to come from off the pace, sitting mid-pack and waiting to make her move late.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The mile seems to suit her a little better than the extra half-furlong of her last two starts, and with two placements in graded races, she has shown she\u2019s one of the rising stars in the division.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She has a competent jock and a favorable running style, but the question mark hanging over her is one of intangibles, namely how fast they take her out early.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She is due to break through, however, and I\u2019m not just saying that because I\u2019m the one that bred her.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Really.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Honest Injun. Part Exchange<\/SPAN><\/B> [Dixieland Band x Unbridled, trained by foxon5<\/I><\/B>] came alive in the spring at the middle distances, with a trio of stakes wins, including the Grade III Timber back in May.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She likes coming from off the pace as well, and there should be a solid pace to follow here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It should be said, however, that she\u2019s been winless since the Timber, and while much of that is owed to racing continuously versus the likes of Dixieland Deputy, Armed With Money, Casa Bonita and Indy\u2019s Giant through the summer and into the fall, turning back to a flat mile couldn\u2019t hurt.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her speed figures are competitive among these fillies, but recent form is going to have to get better, even if there isn\u2019t a Top 10 horse to tangle with here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She won\u2019t be at the rear of the pack, but will need a solid stretch kick chasing a reasonable pace this time around. Espresso D\u2019Italia<\/SPAN><\/B> [Medaglia D\u2019Oro-Arequipa, by Miswaki, trained by lasthope1<\/I><\/B>] has picked up almost $600,000 in 18 starts, but is in need of a pick-me-up on her recent form.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She was a Grade II winner in the Mistaken Soda Identity at 2, but is winless since that 12-1 win last November.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She\u2019s had her chances as a very deep closing threat this year, which is what elevated her earnings so high.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>With a second in her Equinics race (not the same one Kepler Gnaget<\/B> won), a third in the lool Oaks, and a recent third in the Grade III Cheap And Easy, all from a couple of miles beneath the Earth\u2019s surface (or so it would appear, being so far out of it in each), she\u2019s had a lot of opportunities to get off the schneid in 2006 and go back to the winner\u2019s circle.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Maybe the obstacle isn\u2019t in her form, but her choice of tactics: there has never been a start in her career which featured her in a role much closer to the leaders in the early calls, and with a solid and probably not unreasonable pace likely here, such a deep threat, from ten lengths off the lead or greater, might not have as solid a footing.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>After all, it\u2019s just a mile, not 10 furlongs or greater.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Regardless, she\u2019ll be bringing up the rear early on, and will attempt another deep closing dash late.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her speed figures fall on the low end of competitive here, with just one triple-digit number coming in the Cheap And Easy two back.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>More ground or a change in her approach could be to her benefit, but here, barring a major reversal of fortune, she might come on late for a minor share.